Mr.Bank – 第 2 页

货币、银行信贷与经济周期
货币金融学 (第九版)
薛兆丰经济学讲义
塔勒布经济学五部曲（套装共5册）
魔鬼经济学系列(套装共4册)
经济金融学专业核心课（套装共8册）
金融家西奥多·德莱塞
在美国悲剧作者的这部经典小说中，一位野心勃勃的大亨发现他的生活因 1873 年的金融恐慌而出轨。
Frank Cowperwood 的故事始于费城的一场拍卖会，一次低调的七箱肥皂出价很快让他在短短一天内赚了一大笔钱。在镀金时代的无情和魅力中长大，弗兰克发现他有一种盈利的品味，无论谁挡他的道。考珀伍德开始了冷酷的股票经纪、阴暗的政治阴谋、肮脏的犯罪和热情的事务，走在边缘——直到芝加哥大火和随之而来的金融恐慌使他走上了危险的道路。
金融家是三部曲中的第一部，取材于大亨查尔斯·泰森·耶基斯的生平，既让我们一窥美国历史上一段迷人的时期，也描绘了人性阴暗面的永恒写照。
The Financier by Theodore Dreiser
A ruthlessly ambitious mogul finds his life derailed by the financial panic of 1873 in this classic novel by the author of An American Tragedy.
Frank Cowperwood’s story begins at an auction sale in Philadelphia, where an unassuming bid for seven cases of soap quickly makes him a large personal gain in just one day. Having grown up among the ruthlessness and glamour of the Gilded Age, Frank finds he has a taste for turning a profit, no matter who gets in his way. Embarking on a life of callous stock brokering, shady political intrigue, sordid crimes, and passionate affairs, Cowperwood walks on the edge—until the Great Chicago Fire and the financial panic that follows send him down a perilous path.
The Financier, the first in a trilogy, is based on the life of tycoon Charles Tyson Yerkes and provides both a glimpse into a fascinating period in American history and a timeless portrait of the dark side of human nature.
货币兑换商厄普顿·辛克莱纽约 1908
The Moneychangers by Upton Sinclair
小厄普顿·比尔·辛克莱 (Upton Beall Sinclair, Jr.)（1878 – 1968 年）是一位多产的美国作家，他撰写了 90 多部不同类型的书籍，被广泛认为是倡导社会主义观点的最佳调查员之一。他在20 世纪上半叶。他因 1906 年的小说《丛林》而声名鹊起，该小说讲述了美国肉类加工行业的状况，引起了公众的骚动，这在一定程度上促成了《纯净食品和药品法案》和《肉类法案》的通过1906 年的检查法。
厄普顿辛克莱的货币兑换商,我不敢相信这是写于 1908 年的，更像是 2008 年！
很难相信这本书写于 100 多年前，甚至早于 1929 年的金融危机。在本书如此强调 1929 年崩盘后对银行实施监管之前，许多恶作剧是多么令人心酸。以及在取消其中许多规定后，银行如何开始鲁莽的行为，导致了 2008 年当前的银行业救助计划！
这个充满 1908 年社会和生活陷阱的有趣故事令人大开眼界。我强烈推荐给读书俱乐部——你会惊讶于它所引发的讨论。我只能想象许多教授和/或老师拿出他们的旧副本添加到他们的阅读列表中。
一些今天最不可思议的部分（窃听、私家侦探、清洁工收垃圾等）和许多其他今天使用的研究技术当时都在使用！故事中的记者讲述了一个接一个的故事是如何被有钱有势的人镇压的，这与今天的电视新闻有着如此不可思议的联系，令人恐惧。一个接一个的故事情节反映了当今社会，我无法想象任何人无法与这个故事的某些部分联系起来，这是最令人愉快的读物之一。
拉丁美洲 2023 年展望：下降，但未出局
了解潜力并评估该地区 2023 年的经济和政治前景。
我们预计 2023 年将是整合的一年，历史上最令人期待的衰退将在今年下半年袭击美国。然而，即使全球增长前景恶化，并非所有地区都会同样下降。
从宏观角度来看，尽管高通胀和中央银行在一年中的大部分时间都处于紧缩模式，但拉丁美洲的增长在 2022 年出人意料地上升。在几乎所有资产类别中，拉丁美洲在新兴市场和发达市场的表现都优于其他地区。正如我们在2023 年全球展望中指出的那样，尽管宏观前景应该会恶化，但该地区可能继续成为投资者的（相对）亮点。
一方面，增长预计将大幅放缓。从通货膨胀的角度来看，这将是一个好消息，但通货膨胀率仍将高于大多数中央银行的舒适区，直到 2024 年为止。此外，由于经济增长未能恢复到大流行前的水平，政治和社会压力可能导致财政恶化社会不平等变得更加严重。
尽管上述前景黯淡，但拉丁美洲在整个新兴市场中脱颖而出，因为该地区的主要中央银行应开始放松货币政策，从而减轻全球经济放缓对经济增长的打击。此外，随着中国经济在 COVID 封锁后重新开放，商品价格的支撑也可能抵消部分影响。近岸外包等结构性转变也应支持外国直接投资，从而有助于控制经常账户。
重点关注六个最大的拉美国家 (LA6)——巴西、墨西哥、阿根廷、哥伦比亚、智利和秘鲁——在本文件中，我们利用我们的2023 年全球展望：看到潜力并评估该地区的经济和政治前景2023 年，以及它可能在一些关键资产类别中提供的投资机会。
我们最坚定的建议仍然是传统的固定收益，并通过投资美国中小型股和防御性行业（如医疗保健）从估值角度利用错位，另类投资为投资组合增加多元化优势。美国仍然是我们的首选地区，因为它更具防御性，但随着周期的推进，新兴市场将变得重要，而拉丁美洲应该是这些对话的关键部分。
鉴于相对较高的实际利率，该地区的外汇应该（相对）更好地定位以在美元走软的环境中跑赢大盘。在信贷方面，拉美企业比大多数美国高收益发行人更适合应对全球经济衰退，但鉴于后者估值低迷，我们继续看好 DM IG。最后，在股票方面，随着增长差异扩大，美元见顶可能会推动资金流入新兴市场。鉴于目前的估值倍数和相关的宏观基本面，我们认为巴西和墨西哥可以利用这一举措。
要点
拉美经济增长势必大幅放缓，拖累通胀在 2023 年下降，尽管 2024 年之前通胀仍高于官方目标。
利率很可能在 2023 年初达到峰值，但到今年年底仍保持在两位数的低位。
在经济增长放缓、社会支出增加、政治压力和借贷成本上升的情况下，2023 年财政状况可能会恶化。
近岸和大宗商品敞口，加上各资产类别的估值具有吸引力，应该会继续支持拉美金融资产。
Latin America Outlook 2023: Down, not out
Dec 14, 2022
See the potential and take stock of the region’s economic and political prospects for 2023.
We expect 2023 to be a year of consolidation, with the most anticipated recession in history hitting the US by the second half of the year. However, even as the global growth outlook deteriorates, not all regions will fall equally.
From a macro perspective, LatAm growth surprised to the upside in 2022, despite high inflation and central banks in tightening mode for most of the year. Pretty much across asset classes, LatAm outperformed other regions, both in EM and DM. While the macro outlook should deteriorate, the region can continue to be a (relative) bright spot for investors, as we noted in our global 2023 outlook.
On one end, growth is expected to slow significantly. This would be welcome news from an inflationary standpoint, yet inflation will remain above most Central Banks´ comfort zones, until well into 2024. Furthermore, there is risk of fiscal deterioration driven by political and social pressures as growth fails recover to pre-pandemic levels and social inequality becomes even deeper.
Despite the bleak outlook depicted above, LatAm stands out from across EM as major Central Banks in the region should start to ease monetary policy and thus softening the blow to growth stemming from a global slowdown. Furthermore, supportive commodity prices could also offset some of the impact, as China´s economy reopens post COVID lockdowns. Structural shifts such as nearshoring should also support FDI and hence help keep current accounts in check.
With a focus on the six largest LatAm countries (LA6)—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru— in this document we leverage our Global Outlook 2023: See the potential and take stock of the region’s economic and political prospects for 2023, as well as of investment opportunities that it may offer in some key asset classes.
Our highest conviction recommendations remain traditional fixed income and capitalizing on dislocations from a valuation angle through gaining exposure to US small & mid caps and defensive sectors such as healthcare, with alternatives adding diversification benefits to portfolios. The US remains our preferred region given its more defensive profile, yet as the cycle progresses, EM will pick up relevance and LatAm should be key part of those conversations.
Given relatively high real rates, FX in the region should be (relatively) better positioned to outperform in an environment of weaker USD. On the credit side, LatAm corporates are better suited to manage a global recession than most US HY issuers, yet we continue to favor DM IG given depressed valuations for the latter. Finally, on the equity side, the advent of the USD peak could drive flows into EM as growth differentials widen. Given current valuation multiples and relative macro fundamentals, we believe Brazil and Mexico could capitalize on the move.
Key takeaways
LatAm economic growth is poised to slow considerably, dragging inflation down in 2023 despite it remaining above official targets until 2024.
Interest rates are apt to peak in early 2023, yet stay in low double digits through the end of the year.
Fiscal deterioration is in the cards for 2023 amid lower economic growth, increased social spending, political pressure, and higher borrowing costs.
Nearshoring and commodity exposure, coupled with attractive valuations across asset classes, should remain supportive of LatAm financial assets.
密码保护：The Theory and Practice of Banking
This note covers the following topics: The theory of value, The theory of the Coinage, The theory of credit, Transfer of Credits or Debits, Commercial Credit, The theory of banking, The theory of banking discount, The Foreign Exchanges.
银行业的理论与实践（PDF下载）
本说明涵盖以下主题：价值理论、造币理论、信用理论、贷记或借记转移、商业信用、银行理论、银行贴现理论、外汇。
密码保护：货币、银行和金融讲义
本说明解释了以下主题：有效市场假说：理论和证据、资本预算、投资组合理论、资产定价、货币需求、公司估值、中央银行业务、机构投资者、商业银行业务、商业银行风险管理。
Lecture notes in Money, Banking and Finance
This note explains the following topics: Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence, Capital Budgeting, Portfolio Theory, Asset Pricing, Money Demand, Company Valuation, Central Banking, Institutional Investors, Commercial Banking, Commercial Bank Risk Management.
内容
讲义 – 第二年货币、银行和金融
货币和银行业介绍性讲义
讲义 – 第二年货币、银行和金融
由 Andros Gregoriou（东英吉利大学金融学教授）发表
有效市场假说：理论与证据
资本预算
投资组合理论
资产定价
货币需求
是和LM
公司估值
中央银行
机构投资者
商业银行
商业银行风险管理
货币和银行业介绍性讲义
货币和银行业介绍性讲义（第一年和第二年）
由 John Whittaker 博士（兰卡斯特大学）发表
密码保护：印度银行业的兴起、进步和现状（PDF下载）
现代意义上的印度银行业起源于 18 世纪的最后十年。最大的银行，也是现存最古老的银行，是印度国家银行。印度银行业大致分为定期银行和非定期银行。这本书解释了有关印度银行的一切。
The Rise, Progress, and Present Condition of Banking In India
Banking in India, in the modern sense, originated in the last decade of the 18th century. The largest bank, and the oldest still in existence, is the State Bank of India. The Indian banking sector is broadly classified into scheduled and non-scheduled banks. This book explains everything about Indian banks.
脆弱的设计：银行危机和信贷稀缺的政治根源（普林斯顿西方世界经济史，50）
介绍
本版的作者清楚地说明了为什么有些国家的银行系统糟糕且不稳定。但是，有些非常稳定。例如，美国在 1840 年发生了 12 次银行危机，而加拿大则很稳定。然而，巴西和墨西哥等少数经济体只是容易发生危机，并增加了对商业企业和家庭的信贷。
他非常密切地关注了美利坚合众国、英国、巴西、墨西哥和加拿大等国家的银行业历史。他解释了由于不可预见的情况造成的事故与复杂交易造成的波动之间的区别。他解释了启动良好的银行系统的细节以及监管机构对此的控制。
概括
银行业危机和信贷紧缺并非不可预见情况造成的意外。它们是银行家、政治家、银行股东、储户、纳税人和债务人之间各种讨价还价的结果。只有政治机构的能力以及帮助银行家维持和限制影响经济的不同群体的联盟，银行系统才能做得很好。
这本书让你了解一个经济体的整个金融体系，以及不同的群体是如何支配它的。作者确认银行业危机是可以避免的，而不是可以管理的。
Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World, 50)
Introduction
The author of this edition clearly stated why some countries have bad and unstable banking systems. However, some are very stable with the same. For example, The USA had 12 banking crises in 1840, whereas Canada was stable. However, a few economies, such as Brazil and Mexico, have only been prone to crises and increased their credits to business enterprises and households.
He has very closely monitored the banking history of countries of the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico, and Canada. He explains the difference between accidents caused due to unforeseen circumstances and fluctuation resulting from a complex bargain. He explains the details of a well-started banking system and the control of the regulators on the same.
Summary
Banking crises and scarce credits are not accidents caused by unforeseen circumstances. They are the after-effects of various bargains between bankers, politicians, shareholders of the bank, depositors, taxpayers, and debtors. A banking system can be fine only on the capability of the political institutions and to help the bankers maintain and limit the coalitions of different groups influencing the economy.
Best Takeaways
This book gives you a view of the entire financial system of an economy and how various groups of people have dominated it. The author confirms that the banking crises are rather avoidable than manageable.
金融之王：破坏世界的银行家
该书以当时的美国、英国、法国和德国四大央行行长为中心，讲述了他们如何惨遭失败，导致 1929 年的大萧条。
这本书是四位中央银行行长的真实传记——本杰明·斯特朗（美联储）、蒙塔古·诺曼（英格兰银行）、埃米尔·莫罗（法国银行）和亚尔马·沙赫特（帝国银行）。它解释了第一次世界大战后每位央行行长如何寻求不同的复苏之路，但他们都没有找到正确的道路。这是一本写得特别好的书，您迫不及待地想看看接下来会发生什么。虽然这不是一本教科书，但该书提供了一些高级金融主题的足够详细信息，例如国际借贷、黄金标准，和货币贬值
这是对人类历史上最严重的经济动荡之一——1929 年大萧条的精彩叙述。
这是对世界上最有影响力的四位人物以及他们在抗战期间的行动的精心策划的记述金融危机
Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World
The book focuses on the then heads of the four central banks – the US, Britain, France, and Germany, and narrates how they failed miserably, resulting in the Great Depression of 1929.
Book Review
This book is a real-life biography of four central bank heads – Benjamin Strong (Federal Reserve), Montagu Norman (Bank of England), Émile Moreau (Banque de France), and Hjalmar Schacht (Reichsbank). It explains how each of the central bank heads pursued different paths to recovery after the 1st World War, but none of them was able to find the right path. It is an exceptionally well-written book, and you can’t wait to see what happens next. Although it is not a textbook, the book provides enough details about some advanced finance topics, such as international lending, the gold standard, and devaluation of the currency
Best Takeaways
It is an excellent narrative of one of the worst economic turmoil witnessed in human history – The Great Depression of 1929.
It is a meticulously curated account of four of the most influential persons in the world and their actions during the financial crisis
银行业的终结：货币、信贷和数字革命
该书剖析了现代金融体系的复杂运作，并触及数字革命，解释了它如何标志着银行业的终结。
如果您有兴趣了解银行业务的幕后故事，那么您应该选择这本书，您不会失望的。作者以一定的知识和热情分析了银行系统。因此，这本书的叙述非常简单易懂。本书的第一部分讨论了工业时代政府与银行体系之间的平衡关系。第二部分阐明了数字革命如何打破平衡，以及影子银行的兴起如何在 2007-08 年的金融危机中达到顶峰。最后，第三部分解释了数字革命如何破坏当前银行系统的效率并使其变得多余。
它讨论了所有银行系统遵循的基本金融技术。
对影子银行体系进行了浅显易懂的阐述，可以为广大读者带来启发。
The End of Banking: Money, Credit, and the Digital Revolution
The book cuts through the complex workings of the modern financial system and touches upon the digital revolution to explain how it can mark the end of banking.
Book Review
If you are interested in looking behind the scenes at banking operations, then you should pick this book, and you will not be disappointed. The authors have analyzed the banking system with some knowledge and passion. Thus, the book’s narration is very simple and easy to comprehend. The book’s first part discusses the balanced relationship between the government and the banking system that existed in the industrial age. The second part clarifies how the digital revolution unsettled the balance, and the rise of shadow banking culminated in the financial crisis of 2007-08. Finally, the third part explains how the digital revolution destabilized the efficacy of the current banking system and left it redundant.
Best Takeaways
It discusses the fundamental financial techniques followed by all banking systems.
It provides a plain and easy-to-get account of the shadow banking system, which can enlighten many readers.
关于美联储的最佳书籍：美联储不受约束
Lev Menand 认为美联储迷失了方向，主要是因为它一直在处理美国中央银行原定范围之外的项目。由于这种做法，梅南德认为美联储无意中扩大了这个国家的财富不平等。
在《美联储不受约束：危机时期的中央银行》（哥伦比亚全球报告系列的一部分）中，这位哥伦比亚大学法学副教授、纽约联邦储备银行前经济学家、巴拉克奥巴马总统领导下的财政部官员认为美联储经常承担国会应该处理的事情。一些例子：美联储在 2020 年的资产负债表上增加了 3 万亿美元，以避免在 COVID-19 大流行的头几个月发生金融恐慌，以及美联储对 2008 年危机的处理，以防止经济陷入衰退。
Menand 写道，美联储每次加紧行动，都会刺激非银行货币创造的更多增长。他指出，2008 年，非银行货币总计占美国货币供应量的 15 万亿美元，而传统银行存款为 7 万亿美元，实物现金为 1 万亿美元。
“今天，美联储不再只是通过管理银行系统（中央银行的工作）来管理货币供应，”梅南德写道。“它正在通过像紧急政府征信局或国家投资机构一样使用其资产负债表来应对持续的经济和金融危机——创造新的资金来支持金融公司、扩大金融市场以及投资于企业和市政当局。”
Best Book on the Fed: The Fed Unbound
Lev Menand thinks the Federal Reserve has lost its way, mainly because it’s been tackling projects outside of the U.S. central bank’s original scope. Because of that practice, Menand contends that the Fed has inadvertently expanded this country’s wealth inequality.
In The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis, which is part of the Columbia Global Reports series, this associate professor of law at Columbia University, former economist with the Federal Reserve of New York, and Treasury official under President Barack Obama believes that the Fed routinely takes on what Congress should be handling. Some examples: when the Fed added $3 trillion to its balance sheet in 2020 to avert a financial panic during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic and its handling of the 2008 crisis to keep the economy out of recession.
Each time the Fed steps up, writes Menand, it stimulates more growth in nonbank money creation. In 2008, he notes, nonbank money totaled $15 trillion of the U.S. money supply, compared to $7 trillion in traditional bank deposits and $1 trillion in physical cash.
“Today, the Fed is no longer just managing the money supply by administering the banking system [the central bank’s job],” Menand writes. “It is fighting persistent economic and financial crises by using its balance sheet like an emergency government credit bureau or national investment authority—creating new money to backstop financial firms, expand financial markets, and invest in businesses and municipalities.”
最佳帮助被金融体系排除在外的女性：十亿女性无微不至
Mary Ellen Iskenderian 最初在高级金融、并购领域工作，然后在雷曼兄弟公司担任投资银行家。然而，她很快意识到她的热情并不是赚大钱。Iskenderian 继续成为女性世界银行的总裁兼首席执行官，这是一家全球性非营利组织，致力于为低收入女性提供获得自身安全和繁荣所需的金融工具和资源
在《十亿女性无微不至：让金融为女性服务》一书中，她写道，她的使命是尽自己的一份力量来纠正全球约 10 亿女性被排除在正规金融体系之外的问题。被拒之门外意味着这些女性没有银行账户，无法存钱、支付账单或获得信贷。这使他们没有必要的资金继续前进或退出某种情况，例如不再为他们和他们的孩子工作的糟糕婚姻。这也意味着它们无法为经济增长做出贡献。
Women’s World Banking 在墨西哥、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和肯尼亚设有前哨站，帮助许多经济发展中国家的妇女。它现在正在开设一个美国分支机构，该分支机构将解决美国的收入不平等问题——美国女性拥有男性资产的 40%，而黑人和拉丁裔女性拥有的资产要少得多，分别为 12% 和 8%。该非营利组织还运营着两个影响力投资基金，管理资产 (AUM)达 1.5 亿美元。
Best on Helping Women Excluded From the Financial System: There’s Nothing Micro About a Billion Women
Mary Ellen Iskenderian started out working in high finance, merger & acquisitions, then as an investment banker at Lehman Brothers. However, she soon realized that her passion was not making lots of money. Iskenderian went on to become president and CEO Women’s World Banking, a global nonprofit focused on giving low-income women access to the financial tools and resources they need for their own security and prosperity
In There’s Nothing Micro About a Billion Women: Making Finance Work for Women, she writes that her mission is doing her part to rectify how about one billion women worldwide are excluded from the formal financial system. Being shut out means that these women don’t have a bank account, are unable to save money, pay bills or get credit. This leaves them without the wherewithal to move ahead or exit a situation, such as a bad marriage that is no longer working for them and their children. It also means that they are unable to contribute to economic growth.
Women’s World Banking helps women in many economically developing nations with outposts in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Kenya. It is now starting a United States branch, which will tackle American income inequality—U.S. women have 40% of the assets of men, and Black and Latina women have much less, 12% and 8%, respectively. The nonprofit also runs two impact investing funds with $150 million in assets under management (AUM).
DeFi最佳解读：DeFi与金融的未来
“DeFi 从根本上说是一个竞争激烈的去中心化金融应用程序市场，它充当各种金融‘原语’，例如交换、保存、借出和代币化，”杜克大学金融学教授 Campbell R. Harvey 写道；Ashwin Ramachandran，一位将军Dragonfly Capital 的合伙人；Fei Labs 的创始人 Joey Santoro 在DeFi 和金融的未来中提出了通往金融未来的潜在途径。
他们认为，虽然传统金融具有“脂肪层和低效层”，剥夺了普通消费者的价值，但权力下放有助于防止贫富差距扩大。然而，去中心化也有缺点，他们承认：“扩展和智能合约漏洞等某些风险困扰着所有 DeFi，克服这些风险对于 DeFi 的主流采用至关重要。” 在彭博评论中，Penske Media Corp. 董事长兼首席执行官 Jay Penske 写道：“这本书是一个有用的指南，概述了一些将破坏金融生态系统的公司，同时消除烟雾和镜子。”
Best Explanation of DeFi: DeFi and the Future of Finance
“DeFi is fundamentally a competitive marketplace of decentralized financial applications that function as various financial ‘primitives’ such as exchange, save, lend, and tokenize,” write authors Campbell R. Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University; Ashwin Ramachandran, a general partner at Dragonfly Capital; and Joey Santoro, founder of Fei Labs, in DeFi and the Future of Finance, which presents one potential pathway to the financial future.
They contend that while traditional finance has “layers of fat and inefficiency” that robs value from the average consumer, decentralization can help prevent widening the wealth gap. Yet, decentralization comes with drawbacks, too, they acknowledge: “Certain risks like scaling and smart contract vulnerabilities plague all DeFi, and overcoming them is crucial to DeFi’s mainstream adoption.” In a Bloomberg review, Jay Penske, chairman and CEO of Penske Media Corp., wrote: “The book serves as a helpful guide, outlining some of the companies that will disrupt the financial ecosystem, while cutting through the smoke and mirrors.”
银行王朝最佳读物：摩根之家
对于即将到来的那些漫长的冬夜，可能没有比获奖作家罗恩切尔诺 (Ron Chernow)长达 800 页的《摩根之家：美国银行业王朝与现代金融的兴起》更值得深入研究的银行账簿了。摩根为切尔诺赢得了非小说类国家图书奖。
Chrernow 是许多富人或名人或美国人及其家人的编年史家，包括老约翰·D·洛克菲勒、亚历山大·汉密尔顿（改编成长期上演的百老汇热播剧《汉密尔顿》）、乔治·华盛顿：一生，他因此获得了普利策奖非虚构类作品奖，以及 Warburg 家族，一位著名的德国犹太人，然后是德裔美国犹太人，银行业家族。
在《摩根之家》中，切尔诺将读者带入“旧华尔街——精英、俱乐部，并由神秘的小合伙企业主导”，其中包括摩根家族和他们的“家族”、银行——从 1838 年到 1989 年在伦敦，1861 年到1989 年在纽约，1868 年至 1975 年在巴黎1854 年，族长 Junius Spencer Morgan 接受了美国人 George Peabody 的邀请，成为他在伦敦 George Peabody and Company 的初级合伙人后，开始了他的吉祥之路。
皮博迪 60 多岁，体弱多病，单身，没有孩子（至少在法律上没有孩子），他在当时中年的摩根身上找到了继任者。切尔诺的书详细描述了皮博迪的公司如何以及为何在他于 1864 年退休后成为全球摩根大通公司。然后它记录了家族企业的许多表现——他们的高度、政治权力和商业丑闻——以及个别家族成员的个人起起落落。
Best Read on a Banking Dynasty: The House of Morgan
For those long winter nights ahead, there may be no better banking book to delve into than the 800-page The House of Morgan: An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance, by the award-winning author Ron Chernow. Morgan won Chernow the National Book Award for nonfiction.
Chrernow is a chronicler of many wealthy or prominent or both Americans and their families, including John D. Rockefeller Sr., Alexander Hamilton (adapted into the long-running Broadway hit Hamilton), George Washington: A Life, for which he won a Pulitzer Prize for nonfiction, and the Warburgs, a prominent German Jewish, then German American Jewish, banking family.
In The House of Morgan, Chernow takes the reader from the “old Wall Street—elite, clubby, and dominated by small mysterious partnerships, “which included the Morgans and their “houses,” banks—from 1838 to 1989 in London, 1861 to 1989 in New York, and 1868 to 1975 in Paris. The patriarch Junius Spencer Morgan began his auspicious climb to the top after he accepted American George Peabody’s offer to be his junior partner in 1854 at the London firm George Peabody and Company.
Peabody, who was in his 60s and ailing, single, and childless (at least legally childless), found in the then-middle-age Morgan a successor. Chernow’s book details how and why Peabody’s company would become after his retirement in 1864 the global J.P. Morgan and Associates. It then chronicles the many manifestations of the family businesses—their heights, political power, and business scandals—and the personal ups and downs of individual family members.
The definition of ‘small business’ Independent Review | 26th October 2020
安娜布莱 (Anna Bligh) 谈 4BC 布里斯班 – 诈骗和网络安全
Anna Bligh on 4BC Brisbane – Scams and Cybersecurity
印度银行业趋势和进展报告
2022 年 12 月 27 日
2021-22 年印度银行业趋势和进展报告
转送函
内容
观点
全球银行业发展
政策环境
商业银行经营业绩
合作银行的发展
非银行金融机构
DRG 研究第 48 号：印度东北地区金融知识和金融包容性的决定因素：米佐拉姆邦案例研究
今天，印度储备银行在其网站上发布了 DRG 研究1，题为“印度东北地区金融知识和金融包容性的决定因素：米佐拉姆邦案例研究”。该研究由 Bhartendu Singh、Raj Rajesh、Ramesh Golait 和 K. Samuel L. 共同撰写。
该研究根据在米佐拉姆邦进行的一项调查收集的原始数据，评估了印度东北部银行服务不足地区金融普惠和金融知识的决定因素。共有 523 名受访者从覆盖米佐拉姆邦四个区的八个街区中选出。该研究的主要发现如下：
该地区的金融意识水平有限——大约 32% 的受访者不知道除储蓄银行账户外的任何金融产品。
约 20% 的受访者表示缺乏基本支付选项的知识，约 43% 的受访者表示尽管了解但仍未使用可用选项。
大约一半的受访者不了解银行以外的金融机构，即非银行金融公司、小额信贷机构和小型金融银行。
受访者中人寿保险的使用率较低。
研究区域的金融普惠分数和金融素养分数是使用经合组织/INFE（经济合作与发展组织/国际金融教育网络）工具包生成的。在 0 到 21 的范围内，金融素养的平均得分估计为 14.37（即 68.43%），在 0 到 7 的范围内，金融普惠的平均得分为 3.35（即 47.86%）。
在已确定的因素中，受访者的居住地（街区）、就业类型和家庭性质（联合或核心）被认为对他们的金融包容性和金融知识状况有很大影响。
DRG Study No. 48: Determinants of Financial Literacy and Financial Inclusion in North-Eastern Region of India: A Case Study of Mizoram
Today the Reserve Bank of India released on its website the DRG Study1 titled, “Determinants of Financial Literacy and Financial Inclusion in North-Eastern Region of India: A Case Study of Mizoram”. The study is co-authored by Bhartendu Singh, Raj Rajesh, Ramesh Golait and K. Samuel L.
The study evaluates the determinants of financial inclusion and financial literacy in the under-banked north-eastern region of India based on primary data collected through a survey in the State of Mizoram. A total of 523 respondents were selected from eight blocks covering four districts of Mizoram. The key findings of the study are as follows:
The level of financial awareness in the region was limited – about 32 per cent of the respondents were not aware of any financial products other than the savings bank account.
About 20 per cent of the respondents reported lack of knowledge about basic payment options, and about 43 per cent of the respondents reported lack of usage of available options despite awareness.
About half of the respondents were found to be unaware of financial institutions other than banks, viz., non-banking financial companies, microfinance institutions and small finance banks.
Use of life insurance cover was low among the respondents.
The Financial Inclusion score and Financial Literacy score for the study region were generated using the OECD/INFE (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/International Network on Financial Education) Toolkit. The estimated average financial literacy score was 14.37 on a scale of 0 to 21 (i.e., 68.43 per cent) and the average financial inclusion score was 3.35 on a scale of 0 to 7 (i.e., 47.86 per cent).
Among the identified factors, the place of residence (block), employment type and nature of family (joint versus nuclear) of the respondents were seen to strongly influence their financial inclusion and financial literacy status.
RBI 工作文件第 01/2023 号：衡量原油价格对印度行业股票价格指数的传染效应
今天，印度储备银行在其网站上发布了印度储备银行工作文件系列1下的一份工作文件，题为“衡量原油价格对印度行业股票价格指数的传染效应” 。该论文由 Madhuchhanda Sahoo、Arvind Kumar Shrivastava、Jessica Maria Anthony 和 Thangzason Sonna 共同撰写。
对于像印度这样依赖石油进口的经济体，需要更深入地了解全球原油价格的极端变化对部门股票指数的传染效应，这一点怎么强调都不为过。由于对印度行业库存水平的全球原油价格蔓延的研究很少见，因此本文有望为该主题的文献和理解做出贡献。本文使用广义帕累托分布 (GPD) 来估计超额回报或超额回报，定义为偏差——高于和低于阈值。然后使用多项式 Logit 模型 (MNL) 框架来确定 2007 年 1 月至 2020 年 12 月期间印度 10 个行业股票和全球原油回报率在同一天发生的同时超越或共同超越的概率。文献将这种共同超越的概率定义为传染效应。以下是论文的主要结论：
面临全球原油收益的极端变化时，10 个行业股票收益极有可能产生传染效应或同时超额；
积极共同超越的证据更有力；
当引入相关控制变量——汇率回报率（INR-USD）、10 年期 G-sec 收益率和股票回报率差异（即小公司减去大公司）时，发现结果更加稳健；和
对所有行业指数的传染效应，无论它们直接和间接地暴露于油价动态，都凸显了投资者进行对冲的必要性，因为仅仅投资组合多样化可能不足以保护他们的资产免受不利的油价冲击。
RBI Working Paper No. 01/2023: Measuring Contagion Effects of Crude Oil Prices on Sectoral Stock Price Indices in India
Today the Reserve Bank of India placed on its website a Working Paper titled, “Measuring Contagion Effects of Crude Oil Prices on Sectoral Stock Price Indices in India” under the Reserve Bank of India Working Paper Series1. The paper is co-authored by Madhuchhanda Sahoo, Arvind Kumar Shrivastava, Jessica Maria Anthony and Thangzason Sonna.
The need for a deeper understanding of the contagion effects of extreme changes in global crude oil prices on sectoral stock indices for an oil import-dependent economy like India cannot be overstated. Since studies on global crude oil price contagion at sectoral stock levels for India are rare, the paper is expected to contribute both to literature and understanding of the subject. The paper uses the generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) for estimating excess returns or exceedances, defined as deviations – above and below, thresholds. The multinomial logit model (MNL) framework is then used for determining the probability of contemporaneous exceedances or co-exceedances, occurring the same day for 10 sectoral Indian stocks and global crude oil returns during the period from January 2007 to December 2020. The literature defines this probability of co-exceedances as contagion effect. The following are the major conclusions from the paper:
There exists a significant likelihood of a contagion effect or simultaneous exceedances for the 10 sectoral stock returns when faced with extreme changes in global crude oil returns;
The evidence of positive co-exceedances is stronger;
The results are found more robust when relevant control variables are introduced – exchange rate returns (INR-USD), 10-year G-sec yield, and differential stock returns, (i.e., small firms minus big firms); and
The contagion effect on all sectoral indices, irrespective of their direct and indirect exposure to oil price dynamics, highlights the need for hedging by investors as mere diversification of portfolios may not be sufficient to protect their assets from an adverse oil price shock.
RBI 工作文件第 02/2023 号：印度通胀的尾部风险
今天，印度储备银行在其网站上发布了印度储备银行工作文件系列1下的一份题为“印度通货膨胀的尾部风险”的工作文件。该论文由 Silu Muduli 和 Himani Shekhar 共同撰写。
本文使用分位数回归框架估计了尾部风险，即印度消费者价格指数 (CPI) 通胀的上行和下行风险。本文考察了各种国内和全球宏观经济因素的影响，以及灵活的通胀目标制 (FIT) 制度在影响通胀尾部风险方面的作用。国内收入增加、家庭通胀预期、全球商品价格上涨（包括燃料（即原油）和非燃料）以及宽松的金融环境对 CPI 整体通胀构成上行风险。在 FIT 期间，通货膨胀的低尾和高尾风险都已稳定下来。该文件的结论是，宏观经济因素有助于合理把握印度 2% 至 6% 的通胀目标区间的尾部风险。
RBI Working Paper No. 02/2023: Tail Risks of Inflation in India
Today the Reserve Bank of India placed on its website a Working Paper titled, “Tail Risks of Inflation in India” under the Reserve Bank of India Working Paper Series1. The paper is co-authored by Silu Muduli and Himani Shekhar.
This paper estimates the tail risks, i.e., the upside and downside risks to consumer price index (CPI) inflation in India using a quantile regression framework. The paper examines the impact of various domestic and global macroeconomic factors, besides the role of the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime in influencing inflation tail risks. A rise in domestic income, household inflation expectations, elevated global commodity prices – both fuel (i.e., crude oil) and non-fuel, and easy financial conditions pose upside risks to CPI headline inflation. Both lower and upper tail risks to inflation have stabilised in the FIT period. The paper concludes that macroeconomic factors help in capturing the tail risks to India’s inflation target band of 2 to 6 per cent reasonably well.
Top 10 banking trends for 2023
JANUARY 10, 20235-MINUTE READ
In brief
Until the financial crisis of 2008/9, interest rates were the gravitational force that kept banking’s integrated deposit-lending model working.
When that gravity disappeared, powerful waves of disruption and innovation reshaped the industry.
The return of interest rates has pulled banking into a more predictable and familiar orbit. Deposits and balance sheets suddenly matter again.
A combination of well-established forces and recent developments is reshaping banking. Over the past 17 years low interest rates have acted as a Big Bang in banking. They shattered the industry’s fundamental equation—that deposits drive lending power. For all this time, money has been effectively free and worth very little to banks.
In the absence of that revenue stream, banks shifted their focus from the totality of customers’ financial needs to isolated products that continued to generate fees. At the same time, fintech innovators burst onto the scene, awash with cheap capital and valuing scale over financial returns.
Now that positive rates have returned, the constellation of banking products is drifting into a more familiar and predictable orbit.
Leading banks recognize they need to accelerate change—not only to compete but to find new paths to growth. The five key forces of change that Accenture has identified have helped shape and added impetus to the trends which are likely to have the greatest impact on banking in the year ahead.
麦肯锡全球银行业年度回顾2022年
我们的全球银行业年度回顾每年更新一次，提供我们对全球银行业的最佳研究和见解。
McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review
December 1, 2022 | Report
Updated annually, our Global Banking Annual Review offers the best of our research and insights into the global banking industry. Explore the findings from our most recent report and scroll for past years’ reports.
Global Banking Annual Review 2022: Banking on a sustainable path
Banks will need to become more resilient and reinvent their business models to ride out the current volatile period and achieve long-term growth and profitability.
First the pandemic, and now inflation, war, rising interest rates, supply chain disruption, and more: for banks globally, the combination of macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical disruption in 2022 overturned many assumptions and ended more than a decade of relative stability. One thing didn’t change, however: valuations. Banks overall continue to trade at a steep discount to other sectors, a reflection of the fact—confirmed once again in 2022—that more than half of the world’s banks earn less than their cost of equity.
In this year’s Global Banking Annual Review, we take a closer look at the roller-coaster ride banks have been on over the past months, the growing divergence between banks with different profiles in different countries, and the factors that make the best performers stand out.
At a time of growing corporate and government commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, we also shine a spotlight on sustainable finance, a much-discussed theme in banking. Despite lingering skepticism and concerns about greenwashing, we find strong evidence suggesting that climate-related financing is entering a “next era,” as the initial surge of funding for renewable energies gives way to a deeper engagement with banking clients across all sectors.
For banks, 2022 has been a tumultuous year of shocks and growing uncertainty
Banks rebounded from the pandemic with strong revenue growth, but the context has changed dramatically. Now a series of interrelated shocks—some geopolitical and others lingering economic and social effects of the pandemic—are exacerbating fragilities.
Bank profitability reached a 14-year high in 2022, with expected return on equity between 11.5 and 12.5 percent (Exhibit 1). Revenue globally grew by $345 billion. This growth was propelled by a sharp increase in net margins, as interest rates rose after languishing for years on their cyclical floors. For now, the banking system globally is sitting comfortably on Tier 1 capital ratios between 14 and 15 percent—the highest ever.
密码保护：Declining Japanese Yen and Inertia of the U.S. Dollar
密码保护：Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives
A Semantic Analysis of Monetary Shamanism: A case of the BOJ’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
Adverse Selection versus Moral Hazard in Financial Contracting: Evidence from collateralized and non-collateralized loans
Working Capital Management during Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan
密码保护：Supply Chain Disruptions and Trade Credit
Effects of Main Bank Switch on Small Business Bankruptcy
密码保护：Empirical Evidence for Collective Motion of Prices with Macroeconomic Indicators in Japan
密码保护：The Exposure of U.S. Manufacturing Industries to Exchange Rates
密码保护：No-arbitrage Determinants of Japanese Government Bond Yield and Credit Spread Curves
The Effect of the Fed’s Large-scale Asset Purchases on Inflation Expectations
Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Consumption and Saving Behavior: Evidence from a survey on consumers
密码保护：Exchange Rates and the Swiss Economy
Bank-Firm Relationship and Small Business Innovation
密码保护：The Number of Bank Relationships and Bank Lending to New Firms: Evidence from firm-level data in Japan
When Japanese Banks Become Pure Creditors: Effects of declining shareholding by banks on bank lending and firms’ risk taking
密码保护：The Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policies
Diversification Effect of Commodity Futures on Financial Markets
密码保护：Trend Inflation and Monetary Policy Regimes in Japan
密码保护：Reallocation Effects of Monetary Policy
密码保护：What Determines Utility of International Currencies?
Voluntary Provision of Public Goods and Cryptocurrency
密码保护：Nonfarm Employment, Inflationary Expectations, and Monetary Policy after the Global Financial Crisis
Did BOJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Increase Bank Lending?
Generational War on Inflation: Optimal Inflation Rates for the Young and the Old
密码保护：Effects of US Interest Rate Hikes and Global Risk on Daily Capital Flows in Emerging Market Countries
密码保护：The BOJ’s ETF Purchases and Its Effects on Nikkei 225 Stocks
The Weak Rupiah: Catching the tailwinds and avoiding the shoals
The Extent and Efficiency of Credit Reallocation during Economic Downturns
密码保护：Analysis of Inflation/Deflation: Clusters of micro prices matter!
Trade Credit in Global Supply Chains
Non-traditional Monetary Policy and the Future of the Financial Industries
密码保护：How Does Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect the Global Financial Markets?: Evaluating Policy Effects by Global VAR Models