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  • Which luxury cars do the Ambani family own? Bentley, BMW, Mercedes, Rolls-Royce, Lamborghini … that’s just the beginning

    Mukesh Ambani and children Isha, Akash and Anant own an entire fleet of luxury cars. From Bentley, Rolls-Royce and Lamborghini, to an armoured Mercedes and a bulletproof BMW, these are the Ambanis’ most prized – and pricey – motors

    The Ambani family has everything they can possibly dream of – riches, power, luxury. And, of course, such splendour includes the ultimate of all status symbols – a luxury car collection in a garage spanning more than a mile.

    Mukesh Ambani with some of his cars in his garage – the first six floors of the Ambanis’ Antilla home is dedicated to cars. Photo: YouTube

    The Ambani family has everything they can possibly dream of – riches, power, luxury. And, of course, such splendour includes the ultimate of all status symbols – a luxury car collection in a garage spanning more than a mile.

    In case you missed it: business mogul Mukesh Ambani is India’s richest man and the 13th richest person in the world. He is chair and largest shareholder of India’s most valuable company, Reliance Industries Limited.Mukesh and his wife Nita have three children – Anant and twin brother and sister Akash and Isha – who all work in the family business. Naturally, as Asia’s wealthiest family, they live in a lavish, US$2 billion skyscraper and rub elbows with international royalty, Bollywood and Hollywood stars, music and fashion icons, and leaders in politics and business.Fittingly, the Ambani fleet of cars rivals that of other powerful and influential families around the world. In fact, the first six floors of their Antilla home is dedicated just to cars.

    The Ambanis’ most pricey car is the exclusive German-customised armoured BMW 760i, valued at US$1.4 million. The registration fee for it alone cost US$251,000. The family also owns a Maybach 62, Mercedes-Benz S-Class, Bentley Flying Spur, a Rolls-Royce Phantom and more.

    Here’s the story behind eight of the Ambani clan’s most prized – and pricey – motors.

    1. Maybach 62, worth US$730,000

    When you have everything else, only a Maybach 62 will do. Nita gave a customised version to her husband, Mukesh, on his birthday. Based on the Mercedes-Benz W140 S-Class sedan, the prized Maybach 62 can reach 249km/h (155mph). It also includes 18-way power rear seats, power side sunshades and, of course, wireless headphones.

    2. Mercedes-Benz S-Guard

    Another Mercedes in the Ambani fleet is the Mercedes Maybach 660 Guard, a modified, armoured version of the Maybach S600, valued at nearly US$1.5 million. Another of their armoured vehicles, this one is powered by a 6.0-litre, V12 engine, but is electronically restricted to a top speed of 190km/h (118mph). The family bought this safety vehicle in 2015, becoming the first owners in India.

    3. Bentley Bentayga

    In another first for India – which the Ambani family loves to do – Akash drives a bright green Bentley Bentayga. Valued at a bit more than US$1 million, this fast, midsize, five-door luxury crossover SUV can hit 301km/h (187mph).

    4. Bentley Flying Spur

    This US$453,000 Bentley is the new version of the Continental Flying Spur. Powered by a 6.0-litre, W12 engine, this four-door luxury saloon is a variant of the Bentley Continental GT coupé.

    5. BMW 760Li

    Another safety vehicle for the Ambanis, this BMW has a bulletproof coating, which cost them US$1.2 million. And if the tires get damaged (or shot out), all will be well. They are self-supporting, run-flat tires. Because when you’re worth billions, safety costs millions.

    6. Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead Coupé

    This Rolls-Royce Phantom Drophead Coupé is valued at US$1.2 million and is rare – only six exist in India. The engine is powered by a 6.75-litre, V12 engine that can reach 241km/h (150mph) in five seconds. In 2015, it was the most expensive Rolls-Royce model in its class, and several Drophead Coupés were used in the closing ceremony of the London 2012 Summer Olympics.

    7. Rolls-Royce Cullinan

    Named after the Cullinan Diamond – the largest gem-quality rough diamond ever found – this US$980,000 Rolls-Royce Cullinan is the most expensive of its kind available in India. It’s a full-sized luxury SUV and both the first Rolls SUV and the brand’s first all-wheel-drive vehicle.

    8. Lamborghini Urus

    The Ambanis love their SUVs. And so it makes senses that they would own a Lamborghini Urus – another first to India. Valued at US$425,000, this special SUV is powered by a 4.0-litre twin-turbocharged engine. The unusual name is inspired by Urus (or aurochs), the ancestor of modern domestic cattle. But, cows are respected and considered sacred in India, so this special vehicle is a more than appropriate addition to family’s fleet of luxury cars.

  • 密码保护:One year on, China’s vision for own Nasdaq-style technology board draws praises and disdain

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  • Billionaire’s son Wang Sicong, who owes US$21.6 million, ordered to stick to the bare necessities

    • No more first-class travel, holidays or buying property for son of Dalian Wanda Group chairman after ruling by Shanghai court
    • Decision comes after Wang loses case brought by e-sports gaming host over US$515,000 contract dispute

    Wang Sicong, the son of Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin, who was identified as having personal debts totalling US$21.6 million has also been told he must restrict any future spending to life’s necessities, according to a court report.

    Issued by Shanghai Jiading District Court last month, the order came following a request by Cao Yue, an e-sports gaming host who in December last year won a lawsuit against Shanghai Panda Entertainment Co – founded by Wang Jnr – involving a 3.6 million yuan (US$515,000) contract dispute, the document said.

    On Monday, the Beijing No 2 Intermediate People’s Court, named the 31-year-old Wang as being personally liable in a financial dispute involving about 151 million yuan.

    Under the Shanghai ruling, Wang is banned from buying property, going on holiday, flying, travelling first class on boats and trains – including China’s high-speed rail network – staying in star-rated hotels, visiting nightclubs and playing golf.

    Subject to approval by the district court, any of the restrictions may be lifted temporarily if deemed to be restrictive to Wang’s genuine business activities.

    Wang is well known for flaunting his wealth and lavish lifestyle online. Just last month he made headlines in the Chinese media for posting an image of his bill from a Japanese restaurant for more than 15,000 yuan, along with a caption saying the food was the “most awful” he had eaten in years.The son of the chairman of the multinational conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group even once boasted that his pet dog – an Alaskan Malamute called Coco, which itself has more than 2 million followers on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like service – had travelled by private jet.

    News of the restriction on Wang’s spending triggered a debate on Weibo as to whether he would still be allowed to use his private jet. Various posts on the subject were read 120 million times and attracted more than 7,000 comments.

    But Zhang Weiwei, a lawyer from the Guangdong Xinggong Law Firm, said the answer was probably no, and it was possible that Wang’s assets would be sold to help clear his debts.

    “There have been cases before of private jets being auctioned off,” he said.

  • 日本起步走向无现金时代

    在老龄化严重的日本社会,无现金支付的接受度还很低。现在,日本政府计划改变这一点,推动无现金支付。

    据德国央行的一项调查,德国四分之三的零售业务依然使用现金支付。不过,偏爱现金的不只是德国人。在技术发达的日本,许多人也依然信奉”只有手中的现金才是真钱”。

    现在,日本政府希望到2025年,让至少40%的支付采用无现金方式,也就是增加一倍。但即便如此,日本也远远落后于亚洲其它国家。据日本支付协会的一项数据,在韩国,无现金支付比例现已高达96%,在中国也已达到三分之二。不仅如此,据美国金融杂志《福布斯》报道,中国最早将于11月11日发行自己的加密货币,赶在脸书之前。脸书6月宣布将于明年上半年推出数字货币Libra。

    对许多年龄大的日本人来说,那完全是另一个世界。一名65岁的东京女性对记者说,她对无现金支付不感兴趣。”如果手机丢了,我会觉得很难受。”此外,如果用现金,花了多少看看钱包就知道,而无现金支付让她觉得心里没数。

    尽管民众中有这些顾虑,但日本电信巨头软银集团(Softbank)和电商Mecari都在大力宣传电子支付。他们的努力没有白费。软银和合作伙伴雅虎日本一道,在短短数月内就将支付应用PayPay的用户从500万提升到1500万。这也和政府的推动非不开。顾客在小商店使用PayPay支付,可以得到折扣积分。

    日本人偏爱现金有很多原因:犯罪率低,人们对偷窃的担心较小;自动取款机遍布大街小巷。不过,情况也在变化,商业银行已经开始减少自动取款机的数量。对占人口总数三分之一的老年人来说,艰难的时代就要开始了。70岁的Mitsuo Kotake以卖花为生,顾客多半是老年人。他担心这些老人无法适应。”对年轻人很简单。但老年人对这些就搞不懂了。”

  • Challenging road ahead: EU cuts economic growth rate all the way through 2021

    The European Commission has downgraded the growth forecast for the euro area, warning of “a protracted period of subdued growth and low inflation in the context of high uncertainty.”

    Gross domestic product is forecast to expand by 1.1 percent in 2019 and by 1.2 percent in 2020 and 2021. This is down by 0.1 percentage points for 2019 and 0.2 percentage points for 2020 compared with its projections in July.

    Bruising trade wars, a slowing global economy, and a looming Brexit have combined to hit nearly every sector of the economy, said the commission.

    The European economy is in its seventh consecutive year of expansion, but the bloc now “looks to be heading towards a protracted period of more subdued growth and muted inflation.”

    It added that “the external environment has become much less supportive and uncertainty is running high. This is particularly affecting the manufacturing sector, which is also experiencing structural shifts.”

    According to Pierre Moscovici, commissioner for economic and financial affairs, taxation and customs: “All EU economies are set to continue expanding over the coming two years, in spite of increasingly strong headwinds.”

    He said the fundamentals of the EU economy are robust as after six years of growth, unemployment in the EU is at its lowest. “But the challenging road ahead leaves no room for complacency. All policy levers will need to be used to strengthen Europe’s resilience and support growth.”

  • 馬來西亞央行突下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點

    馬來西亞央行出乎意料下調法定存款準備金率0.5個百分點,降至3%,下星期六(16日)生效。 央行聲明指,下調法定存款準備金率,為了維持國內金融體系具備充足流動性,將支持國內金融市場有效運轉,並協助銀行施行有效的流動性管理。 至於央行本周二公布,維持指標利率於3厘,符合市場預期。

  • In wealthy Singapore, about 1,000 people sleep rough every night

    • In the city where part of the Crazy Rich Asians movie was filmed and where the home ownership rate stands at more than 90 per cent, a forgotten few sleep outside
    • Many actually have homes but are pushed out by family conflict, co-tenant quarrels, or a simple need to be close to work

    A landmark study on homelessness in Singapore has found that on any given night, between 921 and 1,050 people sleep in public spaces such as parks and unenclosed lobbies.

    Most are older men who sleep rough because they cannot afford housing, want to be near their workplace or have issues with family members or housemates, among other reasons.

    The study was led by assistant professor Ng Kok Hoe at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, with the help of 480 volunteers, social workers mobilised by the government, and NGOs conducting fieldwork over three months.

    Of the roughly 1,000 people found sleeping rough, 191 were awake and 88 agreed to be interviewed. Six in 10 of those 88 were employed, most commonly in cleaning, odd jobs, security and retail. Those who were paid monthly earned between S$560 (US$412) and S$3,000, with the monthly median income being S$1,400 – about 60 per cent less than the $3,467 of employed Singapore residents.

    The findings, presented on Friday at a public seminar, are a follow-up to a smaller survey done two years ago, when 180 people were found sleeping in public across 25 locations in Singapore, where the home ownership rate is above 90 per cent.

    This year’s survey divided the country of 5.7 million people into 25 districts consisting of 298 zones. The volunteers first spent at least one night in each zone over a three-month period to count the number of people sleeping outdoors or who looked like they were about to go to bed. In all, they found 1,050 homeless people.

    Second, fieldworkers visited selected sites – leaving out the zones with no homeless people found in the first count as well as roughly half of the zones where just one rough sleeper was recorded. Their visits were made in a single night during which they conducted another count and interviewed those still awake. There were 921 homeless people found in this one-night count.

    Said Ng: “I was struck by how widespread homelessness is geographically, and how long it lasts for many homeless persons, despite them being in work.”

    The assistant professor said the figures from the two counts were tightly correlated – the areas with higher numbers in the first count also had higher numbers in the second.

    “That figures collected several months apart are related may reflect a stable geographical distribution of homelessness in Singapore,” he wrote in a paper on the findings.

    In response to the study, the Ministry of Social and Family Development said it appreciated the efforts of the community, researchers and volunteers.

    “Homelessness is a complex issue that often involves multiple underlying social issues. Dr Ng’s study observed many different profiles: homeless people and rough sleepers who may have their own homes, Singapore residents and foreigners,” it said.

    It added that over the last two years, the ministry had partnered with community groups and government agencies to reach out to this section of the population.

    “Together, we engage and refer them to shelters and help agencies, such as social service offices and family service centres, to address their longer-term issues.”

    During the single-night count where volunteers came across 921 homeless people, 191 were still awake and 88 agreed to be interviewed.

    Among them, just under four in 10 had housing registered in their names, while a similar proportion said they could have stayed with family, friends or at their workplaces. But they chose to sleep outside because of family conflict, not wanting to inconvenience friends, problems getting along with co-tenants, or wanting to be near the workplace.

    About half of the interviewees said they had been sleeping outside for between one and five years, with a third having done so for more than six. Just under two in 10 had been outside for less than a year.

    More than half said they had encountered problems – including having their belongings stolen or being asked to move, while about half said they had only had two meals that day, with a quarter only eating one, or nothing at all.

    Four in 10 said they had approached government social service offices in the neighbourhood or their member of parliament for help. Eight in 10 said they still maintained contact with friends and family.

    The numbers are similar to those for Hong Kong, where official figures found 1,127 registered street sleepers in the 2017-18 financial year – an increase of 51 per cent from 2013-14 – but social workers thought the figure was closer to 2,000.

    Ng’s paper suggested increasing the number of sites where homeless people can seek help and for shelter services to have more flexible rules. Currently, shelters funded by the government have a limited duration of stay and require inhabitants to report to a social worker. Ng said one of the interviewees told researchers he was once placed in a welfare home for two or three weeks and “really didn’t like it”.

    Harry Tan, a sociologist at the National University of Singapore who submitted a thesis on homelessness in the city state for his PhD at Australia’s Monash University, said many rough sleepers who entered welfare homes struggled with the loss of freedom it entailed.

    “Once a person was admitted inside, it was difficult to leave the home compound unless it was for work purposes. For those who did not work, official permission must be sought and granted if they wanted to go out during the day,” Tan said. “The second challenge was the strict discipline in the welfare home.”

    He also warned of the dangers of sleeping rough. “Just the other day one of them showed me this huge slit in the side of his bag where it was cut open and his belongings were stolen. And one woman woke up to a hot sensation on her chest only to find someone trying to burn her T-shirt. She thinks the person may have wanted to molest her.”

    Ng suggested relaxing the rules for Singapore’s public housing rental scheme. Last year rental flats made up less than 6 per cent of the country’s more than 1 million public flats, and eligibility criteria for the heavily subsidised homes are strict. Applicants must form a family unit or pair up with another single applicant to secure a flat, which costs as little as S$26 a month for a studio unit for first-time applicants with a monthly income of S$800 or less.

    At times, singles have found themselves sharing flats with a stranger which has given rise to quarrels and forced some to sleep in public, a problem the government has acknowledged.

    “Removing the joint tenancy requirement as an immediate step will not only improve this exit path from homelessness, but will also help to realise basic standards of privacy for the poorest residents in the public housing sector,” Ng wrote, adding that low wages and job insecurity also needed to be addressed.

    Ng praised the collaboration between members of the public, NGOs and the ministry in carrying out the count of the country’s homeless, saying it promoted “community ownership of the complex issue”.

    “It will help challenge stereotypes about homeless people and create a safer environment for them,” he wrote.

    One of the volunteers for the count was Brian Monteiro, who works on volunteer and programme management at the Catholic Welfare Services Singapore – a charity which opens up its office in Waterloo Street to those without homes to shower and use the computers. He said it was heart-warming to see so many volunteers for the count.

    “I felt it was going to be a night that, hopefully, would see our people in the streets getting the respect and dignity that rightfully should be accorded to everybody,” he said.

  • China’s in, but, without India, is ‘world’s largest trade pact’, the RCEP, still such a big deal?

    • Modi’s shock move to abandon the RCEP trade deal has fed the cynics
    • But its fans are loyal, even in the face of research suggesting its impact on GDPs will be minimal

    India’s shock move this week to pull out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has triggered a fresh round of scoffing from cynics who for years have lampooned the trade pact’s repeated delays and low ambitions.But even as these critics complain about being “taken for a ride” by India, which negotiated hard for seven years only to jump ship at the last minute, proponents of the deal say there is still much to cheer about.

    Supporters of the India-less RCEP say that while its shortcomings must be acknowledged, it is a shot in the arm for multilateralism amid the rising trend of protectionism around the world.

    The 15 economies left in the RCEP – comprising the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand – this week said they had agreed on the “text-based negotiations” and would work towards signing a deal some time next year after lawyers comb through the draft agreement, and specifics on market access are settled.

    They also left the door open to India, saying they would continue to work with New Delhi to settle “outstanding issues” – despite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi telling a regional summit in Bangkok he could not agree to the deal because it would be ruinous for his country’s poor.

    Singapore-based trade analyst Deborah Elms, among the handful of experts who have tracked the deal’s progress since negotiations began in 2012, said it was “understandable” but “somewhat unfortunate” that the media’s focus was on India’s exit, rather than the agreement “in principle” of the 15 countries.

    “Leaders have pulled off what many believed was an impossible task – in spite of strong global headwinds, 15 Asian countries managed to agree on a significant new trade deal that will lead to new integration in the region,” Elms wrote in a commentary.

    Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, an assistant professor at the Centre of Multilateralism Studies in Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, agreed, saying “with or without India, RCEP will be the world’s biggest trading bloc when it signs next year”.

    The experts conceded that from a purely statistical point of view, the 15 countries going ahead with the pact were likely to see only a minimal impact on their growth rates.In a study published in August, University of Queensland researcher Renuka Mahadevan and the Indonesia finance ministry’s Anda Nugruho forecast that China, the biggest economy of the 15, would see a minuscule 0.08 per cent bump in GDP as a result of being in an India-less RCEP in 2030.

    In this scenario, Malaysia, Vietnam and South Korea would fare the best of the 15 countries, but would still see minimal growth, according to the researchers.

    Had India joined the pact, it was projected to see a slight increase in GDP growth, but it is now projected to suffer a marginal fall. The researchers said India’s giant services economy – staffed by the country’s skilled professionals – needed the RCEP for expanded markets.

    Edmund Sim, partner at the multinational trade and investment law firm Appleton Luff, said without the participation of the South Asian economy, “the chances of accelerated trade and investment liberalisation are better”.

    Supporters of the RCEP insist they are not turning a blind eye to its deficiencies. The deal does not address issues such as intellectual property rights and the environment, or offer a clear pathway for investors to deal with disputes with member states.

    The so-called investor-state dispute-settlement mechanism – almost a prerequisite in multilateral trade deals of recent times – will be put on ice for the medium term after Malaysia lobbied for such action during negotiations earlier this year.

    The RCEP has often been compared to the 11-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has these provisions.

    That deal, the successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership pact the US drew up during the administration of Barack Obama and then dumped when President Donald Trump succeeded him, has its own set of problems.

    Of the 11 countries that signed that deal in March last year, only seven have ratified the pact.

    Peru, Malaysia, Brunei and Chile have held out.

    Heng Wang, an associate professor of law focusing on economics and trade at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said the lack of a dispute-settlement mechanism would have implications “for at least the first several years”.

    Firstly, it would give governments more space to regulate investment and public policy. However, it could also influence decisions by foreign investors, as it would mean they could not bring disputes against host governments.

    Overall, even though “sensitive issues” had been omitted from the RCEP, “one may argue that it is better to have a set of rules, although not necessarily at a high level, for regional trade”, Heng said.

    Kaewkamol, the Singapore-based researcher, said in her commentary that “economic factors alone cannot capture the whole RCEP story”.

    One of the outcomes of the pact, the professor said, was that it promoted the long-vaunted concept of “Asean centrality”, the notion that the 10-nation bloc must play a pivotal role in any economic or security relations the region has with outside powers.

    Kaewkamol and other analysts dismissed the common perception that the RCEP – simply because of the non-involvement of the US – was led by China.Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong underscored this, saying the deal illustrated how “Asean’s involvement as a trusted, neutral group has enabled many countries to come together and cooperate under the RCEP”.

    Elms, the trade consultant, wrote in her commentary this week that the 15 countries could sign a deal as soon as February, with it coming into force “potentially as early as January 1, 2021”.

  • Wang Sicong, son of China’s former richest man, told to pay back US$21.6 million in debts

    • He often flaunted his wealth on Weibo, a Chinese social media network, where he has almost 44 million followers
    • In 2015, he bought two Apple Watches for his dog Coco, and posted a photo online of the malamute wearing the devices on her paws

    Wang Sicong, the son of China’s former “richest man” Wang Jianlin, has been named by a Beijing court as personally liable in a financial dispute involving about 151 million yuan (US$21.6 million) in debts.

    A national database for debt recovery listed Wang Sicong, 31, as an “enforced person” following a court case in the Beijing No 2 Intermediate People’s Court. The database did not identify the creditors.

    The Weibo account of People’s Court Daily, a newspaper affiliated with the Supreme People’s Court, clarified that the son was not on a defaulter list and did not face travel or spending restrictions.

    “The court has not yet enforced measures such as spending restrictions against Wang Sicong nor added [him] to the list of defaulters. Therefore, Wang Sicong is only an ‘enforced person’ and not a defaulter,” the Weibo post said.

    Wang Sicong rose to prominence as his real estate tycoon father topped Forbes and Bloomberg Chinese rich lists between 2015 and 2017.

    He often flaunted his wealth on Weibo, a Chinese social media network, where he has almost 44 million followers.

    In 2015, Wang Sicong bought two Apple Watches for his dog Coco, and posted a photo online of the malamute wearing the devices on her paws.

    Zhang Weiwei, a lawyer at Guangdong Xinggong Law Firm, said that being an “enforced person” meant Wang Sicong was personally liable for the 151 million yuan.

    If he did not repay the debt within a certain time, the court could seize his assets, Zhang said. And if that was not enough to cover the debt, then Wang would go on a list for defaulters, which would entail travel and spending restrictions.

    “From a business perspective, his reputation would be affected negatively by this case. He is now a debtor and the media has reported widely about this,” Zhang said.

    Wang Sicong has been involved in various ventures, starting his own video streaming company PandaTV and investment firm Prometheus Capital. According to Tianyancha, a Chinese company register, Wang is the legal representative of 20 companies and owns stock in 32 firms.

    But PandaTV filed for bankruptcy last year due to cash flow problems and Prometheus Capital’s stock was frozen by a court in Shanghai in October for three years, Tianyancha records show.

    Representatives from Beijing Prometheus Capital, wholly owned by Wang Sicong, declined to comment on Friday.

    Wang has not commented on the case and has restricted public access to his posts on Weibo.

    On Monday, Luo Yonghao, founder of Chinese mobile phone company Smartisan, was added to a defaulters list for failing to pay debts of about 600 million yuan.

    As a result, Luo cannot fly or use the high-speed rail system. He also cannot buy luxury goods or real estate.

    Luo apologised online and promised to pay his debts.

  • China is likely to avoid the middle-income trap. But investors should beware the pitfalls of focusing only on headline growth

    Economic growth is important, but investor returns depend on more than that. In China’s case, the deepening and opening up of its financial markets are factors that will boost returns – and help it escape the middle-income trap

    China’s economy stands at a key juncture. The route it takes will have a complex impact on the world’s financial markets. Reviewing the historically nuanced relationship between economies and markets helps to put this in context. 

    Emerging markets’ high rates of growth are often pointed to as a key reason to buy into their stock markets, but economic growth is not the sole determinant of returns. High growth does translate into higher revenues – an important component of total returns – but fast-growing emerging markets can also see dilution.

    Dilution happens when a company issues additional shares of stock, often because they need more capital to invest, zapping the value of existing investors’ shares by reducing their proportional ownership. Dilution lowers returns to investors, below what revenue growth would have suggested these stocks are worth.

    The fact that growth doesn’t necessarily dictate investor returns is an interesting paradigm for Beijing, if we broadly consider the effect of China’s slowing future growth on its markets.

    During 2019, China will pass a milestone in its development: its per capita gross domestic product, measured using market exchange rates, will reach US$10,000. At that mark, China will be considered a “middle-income country”.

    China’s per capita GDP has doubled since 2011 and increased 10-fold since 2000. This massive improvement in the living standards of a population that exceeds 1 billion has been one of the quickest and biggest economic success stories in history.

    However, in the past, once reaching this threshold, other emerging economies have seen their growth slow. Many seem to get trapped in this middle-income group – even as they continue to grow, their living standards get no closer to those enjoyed by citizens of wealthy countries.

    This middle-income trap has become a hot topic among investors considering taking advantage of improving access channels to China’s financial markets: is greater exposure wise given the likely limits on China’s potential? The answer is that China is likely to escape this trap, but growth will still slow in the coming years as a result of worsening demographics and limited productivity gains.

    However, just as dilution can lower total returns below what is implied by price appreciation alone, financial deepening in countries growing richer can boost returns – and there are good reasons to believe this will happen in China.

    One useful measure to gauge the trajectory for China’s financial markets is the equity market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, which tends to rise as economies develop. China’s, currently about 60 per cent, is already fairly high compared with some other economies at an equivalent stage.

    However, many developed market economies, including the US but also Taiwan, have market cap-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100 per cent, implying a lot of room for growth in the Chinese equity market.

    Similar dynamics are likely to play out in bond markets. The Chinese bond market today is worth US$13.2 trillion, or 100 per cent of GDP, compared with 130 per cent of GDP for the value of the US bond market.

    Despite bond and stock market index inclusions, foreign ownership of China assets remains low by international standards, at 3 per cent of A-share equities and 2 per cent of bonds. By comparison, foreign investors own around 23 per cent and 24 per cent of the US equity and bond markets respectively.

    As foreign owners take advantage of recently expanded access to China, their ownership will rise closer to the country’s overall share of global markets – Chinese securities make up, by market capitalisation, roughly 8 per cent of global equity markets and 13 per cent of global bond markets.

    These shifts will drive structural change in China’s markets. For example, having more institutional investors in onshore equities may exert a stabilising influence on China’s equity prices – now among the emerging-market world’s most volatile, largely due to retail investors’ primacy in the market.

    China’s increasing integration into the global financial system should also lead its asset market returns becoming more correlated with global markets – something that is already happening.

    While China’s equity and bond markets are the world’s second largest, the investments available still do not match China’s economic heft. Amid these changing dynamics on the ground, it’s worth keeping a close eye on the difference between growth and returns.

    While China is unlikely to fall into the middle-income trap, the inattentive investor may get stuck in the middle-returns trap if headline economic growth is the only factor driving his or her decision-making.