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Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind

Chinese consumers collectively spent 158.31 billion yuan (US$22.63 billion) in the first nine hours of Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza, scooping up everything from consumer electronics to luxury items and even cars. The figure is two thirds of last year’s final tally of US$30.8 billion.

Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind. The festival will be closely watched this year as a barometer for consumer sentiment 16 months into a US-China trade war and amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

While the company’s e-commerce marketplaces Tmall and Taobao are traditionally the mainstays of the annual shopping extravaganza, this year’s festival will also include business-to-business e-commerce platforms like AliExpress as well as Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, as the company taps international consumers.

Alibaba Group Holding is the parent company of the South China Morning Post.

Hong Kong, the US, the UK, Australia and Japan were among the top overseas buyers in early business. At the open, the top 5 regions in mainland China in terms of transactions were Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Shandong.

Opening sales were brisk, hitting US$10 billion in just under 30 minutes, half the time from the previous year.

GMV for the Double 11 Global Shopping Festival is the total value of orders settled through Alipay on Alibaba’s consumer-facing core commerce platforms, as well as Lazada and AliExpress, within a 24-hour period on November 11. It is reported on a real-time basis and includes shipping charges paid, according to Alibaba.

Apart from Alibaba, rival sites such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have also launched their own Singles’ Day campaigns, to entice buyers to spend on their platforms.

“Singles’ Day is becoming more recognised worldwide … but since it is still very much a domestic holiday and event, it is a true test of Chinese consumer power,” said Benson Ng, EY Greater China digital advisory leader.

Singles’ Day got its name from its date. Written numerically as 11/11, the date looks like “bare branches”, a Chinese expression for the single and unattached. As a kind of antidote to the societal pressures of being in a relationship, many of China’s singles began splurging on themselves on Singles’ Day, which became seen as a type of anti-Valentine’s Day.

Alibaba held its first Singles’ Day shopping event in 2009 as a promotional campaign, but these days it has morphed into a show of China’s collective consumer spending power. Last year, consumers spent 4,000 times more than they did during the first ever Singles’ Day event.

Ahead of this year’s shopping extravaganza, consumers seemed to be as eager as ever to snap up deals. Prior to the beginning of the festival on Monday, 64 brands, including Apple, Dyson, Lancome and L’Oreal, had already achieved 100 million yuan in pre-orders, Alibaba said.

Eager consumers also snapped up over 15,000 bottles of Kim Kardashian’s KKW Fragrance perfume, after the reality TV superstar conducted a live-streaming session on Tmall last Thursday to promote the brand.

A recent survey by management consulting firm Oliver Wyman showed that over 50 per cent of consumers plan to spend more during this year’s Singles’ Day festival than last year, with an expected 10 per cent increase in spending.

“Singles’ Day continues to maintain robust momentum among consumers, with over 60 per cent being more excited about this year’s festival than they were last year,” the company said in a press release. Some 60 per cent of respondents also indicated that they planned to buy imported products despite the ongoing trade war.

Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics affiliate, has an inventory of 500 million tons of goods, ready to be dispatched to consumers shopping on Singles’ Day. On this day each year, Alibaba pushes its technology and services, such as its cloud computing systems, to the limit.

This year, consumers in China’s less-developed areas and smaller cities are expected to help drive sales, according to PwC China consumer markets leader Jennifer Ye.

Consumers in China’s lower-tier cities, such as Guilin, Luoyang and Sanya, demonstrate a higher “willingness to pay” when compared with those in more affluent cities like Xiamen and Zhuhai, as people in smaller Chinese cities increasingly seek an upgrade in their quality of life and experience, according to PwC’s Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019 China Report.

Singles’ Day has also evolved from a day of massive sales to one that merges both consumption and entertainment. Each year, Alibaba holds a massive concert the day before Singles’ Day, inviting international superstars such as Mariah Carey and acts like Cirque du Soleil to perform in front of thousands, while live-streaming the concert to millions of viewers across the country.

This year’s concert featured Taylor Swift, just months after performing at a similar Prime Day concert for Amazon in the US, as well as Chinese pop stars such as G.E.M. and TFBoys’ Jackson Yee.

作为瓦楞纸原料的废纸的日本国内价格出现下跌。由于最大出口目的地中国因环保等原因加强进口限制，同时中美贸易摩擦导致中国经济减速，日本的废纸对华出口急剧减少。目前日本的废纸库存正在接近批发商的保管极限。以废纸为原料的瓦楞纸原纸的价格下行压力或将加强。

目前废纸批发商向回收业者买入废旧瓦楞纸的价格为1公斤6～9日元，比上月下降约1日元。时隔约5个月下跌，比年初下跌4成，创出2013年8月以来的新低。瓦楞纸的副原料杂志废纸为5～6日元，废报纸为8～10日元，价格区间的高点下跌1日元。

日本5月对中国仅出口7万6350吨废旧瓦楞纸，与2018年7月相比减少约6成。

中国政府为加强环保，2018年3月起把进口废纸包含的杂质上限从1.5％降至0.5％。政府向各造纸公司分配的进口授权配额也呈现缩小态势。此外，由于中美贸易摩擦，中国的对美出口减少，产品的捆包用瓦楞纸需求减少。由于中国国内的造纸公司减产，成为原料的废纸需求也持续低迷。

日本的废旧瓦楞纸
　

在中国购买意愿高涨的2018年夏季，日本废旧瓦楞纸的出口价格曾一度超过1公斤30日元，但目前维持在低于10日元的状况。有废纸批发商的社长表示，“为了保持国内的供需平衡，不得不赔本出口”，难以掩饰危机感。

此外，日本国内造纸公司的库存也在不断增加。4月存在十连休前的抢搭末班车需求，如今报复性下滑正在出现。有废纸回收批发商表示，“自本月起，造纸公司的订单或将减少”。

有废纸批发商的社长认为，日本的“造纸公司和废纸批发商的库存能力预计最多为145万吨，6月底或已达到上限”。

废旧瓦楞纸的价格下跌将给瓦楞纸原纸带来降价压力。日本联合造纸（Rengo）等以物流费上涨等为由，自2018秋季起相继提出涨价，瓦楞纸箱在2019年春季也出现涨价。

但如果废纸价格持续低迷，日本的瓦楞纸原纸和纸板的价格将难以维持。

中国的环保限制正在动摇日本的废纸回收系统。过去大量进口日本废纸的中国提出废物零进口目标，限制进口。无处可去的废纸充斥日本国内。日本尝试开拓销路，向东南亚出口，但是并非易事。在全球性经济减速的背景下，日本以出口为前提的资源循环迎来拐点。

“已经没地方放了”，东京废纸批发商栗原纸材的新田事业所将瓦楞纸板等废纸压缩成捆，一捆一吨重，现在已经积压了3000捆，是一般情况下的6倍。仓库已经放不下，从5月开始堆放在室外。这是自发生东日本大地震的2011年以来首次出现这种情况。

栗原纸材新田事业所的部分废纸放在室外（左后方）

日本国内废纸批发商和造纸企业的废旧瓦楞纸板（废纸板）等的合计库存能力被认为在145万吨，据废纸批发商的高管表示，“（目前的库存）已经接近9成”。由关东地区的废纸批发商组成的关东制纸原料直纳商工组合截至9月的瓦楞纸板库存量达3.3万吨，膨胀至2018年的近3倍。

库存增加的最大原因是中国在2018年6月提出2020年底之前实现固体废物零进口目标，开始减少进口。2018年，日本的废纸出口量为380万吨，其中对中国的出口量为274万吨，占到7成多。日本古纸再生促进中心的统计显示，日本国内废纸总回收量的13%被中国吸收。

从2000年前后开始，日本的废纸一直处于回收量超过国内再利用量的情况。这是因为企业和居民的回收意识增强以及自治体采取了积极回收等措施。日本通过把国内用不完的废纸出口海外的方法来维持再循环的机制。

当前，日本的造纸企业以高于出口价的价格购买废纸，支撑回收系统。不过据纸业专门商社的高管表示，“如果出口情况持续低迷，国内造纸企业下调买价的话，废纸回收系统可能崩溃”。

日本的废纸批发商和商社将加紧开拓东南亚等中国以外的出口目的地。但是，印度尼西亚等与中国一样加强了环保限制，能否增加废纸出口存在不确定性。

此外，出口价格也持续下跌。在出口情况良好的2018年秋季，废纸价格一度达到1公斤30日元以上，现在则下跌至5日元左右。为了削减日本国内库存，不得不亏本出口。关东制纸原料直纳商工组合也因为亏损，连续6个月暂停废纸出口。

在日本国内，随着网购的普及，配送用的纸箱需求出现增加，但主要用于装果蔬和饮料。仅靠这一需求无法消化多余的废纸。受中美贸易摩擦影响，包装和运输汽车零部件等产品的纸箱需求也显著减少，能够减少日本国内废纸库存的因素减少。

此外，受19号台风等接连发生的灾害影响，日本的果蔬出货陷入停滞，用于生产纸箱原纸的需求也放缓。一方面，由于从中国等地进口果蔬来弥补日本国内供应量的减少，海外制造的包装用纸箱也成为废纸，导致废纸越来越多。

废纸板的价格从年初开始下跌了4成以上，跌至1公斤6.5日元左右。由于盈利状况恶化，有的企业开始停止回收，此外，据废纸批发商高管表示，“关东和中部地区的中小企业部分开始出现逆有偿” （注：日本的废物处理方式中，将废物作为原材料有偿出售时，废物排出方要支付运输费用，如果运输费用高于出售收益，即为“逆有偿”）。

由于价格下跌，有的地区自治体的回收奖金出现减少，还出现了居民停止集体回收的情况。废纸批发商的高管警惕称，“如果废纸被作为垃圾扔掉，自治体的垃圾处理费用将进一步增加”。

• “The [crypto]currency itself is not real, with the characteristics that a currency must have,” said the European Central Bank’s former president Jean-Claude Trichet, at Caixin’s conference in Beijing
• An alternative monetary tool to existing currencies is the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) by the International Monetary Fund, Trichet said

The European Central Bank’s former president Jean-Claude Trichet said he is doubtful that cryptocurrencies can ever become the future of money, becoming the latest monetary authority to pour cold water on the simmering technology that seeks to disrupt and disintermediate global central banks from their control of currencies.

“I am strongly against bitcoin, and I think we are a little complacent,” Trichet said during a panel discussion at Caixin’s 10th annual conference on Sunday in Beijing. “The [crypto]currency itself is not real, with the characteristics that a currency must have.”

Buying a cryptocurrency is “in many respects pure speculation,” said Trichet, who led the ECB from 2003 to 2011, after a decade as governor of the Bank of France. “Even if [the cryptocurrency] is supposed to be based on underlying assets, I am observing a lot of speculation. It is not healthy.”

Trichet’s comment echoes the concern shared by global central banks about the threat posed by cryptocurrencies, for their decentralisation of traditional currencies, disruption of the global financial system and hindrance to monetary authorities in controlling the value of money. The ECB’s board member Benoit Soeure went as far in September as warning that cryptocurrencies could “challenge the supremacy of the US dollar,” in a report on CNBC.

At the summit, the 76-year-old French economist said he was also “very much against” Libra, a cryptocurrency project proposed by Facebook in June. Originally announced alongside a list of corporate backers, the social media site has faced scrutiny over entering the financial services space causing firms like Visa, MasterCard and PayPal to pull support in October.

Cryptocurrencies are decentralised digital currencies, traded without a central bank or administrator. Transactions between users, without the traditional middle man, are recorded in a digital ledger of blockchain.

China has taken a tough stance against cryptocurrencies. China’s central bank and financial regulators in September 2017 banned initial coin offerings (ICOs), in which companies could raise funds by issuing digital tokens, or coins. Local trading platforms were shut, and access to all domestic and foreign platforms related to cryptocurrency trading and ICOs were blocked in February 2018, in attempts to quash the market.

Chinese banks are barred from handling bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, although individuals are not barred from holding them. China hosts some of the world’s largest bitcoin and cryptocurrency mines.

Bitcoin is the world’s first, and most popular cryptocurrency, founded in 2009 by an unknown developer known as – what’s commonly thought to be a pseudonym – Satoshi Nakamoto. The value of bitcoin has swung from US$0.003 in March 2010 to a record US$20,000 at the end of 2017, before crashing the following year, now trading at around US$8,800 each.Nevertheless, some central banks like Sweden’s Riksbank are embracing technology, seeking to create digital versions of their currencies to cater for the explosive growth of e-payment and cashless remittance platforms. The People’s Bank of China is poised to roll out a digital currency that can be used across major payment platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay – not to be confused with a cryptocurrency – while the Bank of England’s Mark Carney has also proposed a digital reserve currency.

A monetary tool that Trichet prefers is the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) created by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), whose value is pegged to the US dollar, the euro, the pound sterling, the renminbi and the yen.

“I have great doubts of keeping control of monetary value in [the cryptocurrency] domain,” said Trichet. “In the so-called new stable international currencies … the SDR would be the right basket.”

The world may be moving away from physical coins and notes, but that path may not be in the direction of cryptocurrency, Trichet said.

“We are already in a domain which has much less physical currency,” he said. “Whether we are in a domain where that will be replaced with crypto? I have doubts there.”

• Chinese migrant Yeap Chor Ee became one of Malaya’s most prominent men
• His story is being told for the first time by his great-granddaughter

When Yeap Chor Ee left his hometown in southern China in 1885 to seek his fortune in Southeast Asia – then known as Nanyang, or the southern seas – he was just one of 125,000 people fleeing a land struck by famine and rebellion.By the time of his death in May 1952, Yeap had become one of the most prominent men in pre-independence Malaya and the richest man in the northern state of Penang, his name synonymous with philanthropy and real estate.

The King’s Chinese , written by Yeap’s great-granddaughter Daryl Yeap, 49, traces the tale of Penang’s “Grand Old Man”, from his start as a penniless, illiterate barber to one of the most successful tycoons in Asia, against the backdrop of migration and the birth of a nation.

“I thought it would make more sense to write about the whole community rather than just one man, so the book is about the story of the Straits Chinese, using my great-grandfather as a vehicle,” Yeap said.

The book details the life of Yeap Chor Ee, from his marriages – one wife back in China to look after the ancestral home, and three in Penang, who combined would have 10 children – to his early days as an itinerant barber saving money to start Ban Hin Lee, his first shop with his business partner Oei Tiong Ham, another prominent Chinese businessman from Indonesia.

As his business boomed and his wealth grew, Yeap started Ban Hin Lee Bank in 1918, the first locally owned bank in Penang to serve the Chinese community. Along with other locally incorporated banks, it was the precursor to a stable financial structure for Malaya.

In 2000, under a government-initiated banking consolidation plan, Ban Hin Lee Bank was acquired by Southern Bank. The latter then merged with several other banks to form the CIMB Group, which today operates mainly in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand.

The King’s Chinese also paints a picture of Penang society during the late 19th century. The port town, first colonised by Captain Francis Light for the British East India Company, was a “free for all, cowboy town”, Yeap said.

Chinese migrants began to congregate en masse on the island after the United States implemented the Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882.

“It had an open economy where anyone could open a business. There was no standardised currency, people were trading with Mexican, Peruvian, Japanese currency,” she said.

This wave of migrants became the basis of what Penang is today, with a majority Chinese population on the island side of the state, and a majority Malay population in Seberang Prai on the Malaysian Peninsula.

Men worked in whatever jobs they were skilled at, many as indentured labourers, until they could pay off their passage from China. Women were less fortunate, Daryl Yeap said. Only 2 per cent of the new migrants were women, some as young as 10 sold by their parents or kidnapped to become prostitutes in Penang and elsewhere.

If the girls contracted a disease, the pimp would lose money, and the girls were to blameDaryl Yeap

Regulations to protect women were scarce, with only the 1888 Women and Girls Protection Ordinance setting the age of consent at 10, which was raised to 13 three years later.

“If the girls contracted a disease, the pimp would lose money, and the girls were to blame,” said Yeap.

“The rules were always being changed to suit men.”

The fate of migrant women was especially alarming when contrasted with that of Yeap Chor Ee’s fourth and youngest wife, Lee Cheng Kin, Yeap said. Lee was educated, rare for women of the time, and in her elder years was fondly called “the old lady”.

At first, Lee was reluctant to marry Yeap Chor Ee, 30 years her senior, but soon became his assistant due to her ability to read. She eventually became the matriarch of the Yeap clan and looked after both the business and the household. “Considering that [before] Chor Ee died he made her chairwoman of the bank and passed the household to her, and the extremely chauvinist Yeap ‘Kongsi’ [clan house] made her the chairwoman, it was a big difference [to other women],” she said.

As Yeap Chor Ee approached 80 years of age, his estate, including property and banking assets, was estimated to be worth 100 million Malayan dollars, the equivalent of US$463 million today.

The implementation of estate duty by the British government in 1940 to fund the Second World War caused great panic among rich Straits Chinese, whose large coffers would have been a huge windfall for the colonial government.

In response, Yeap set up two trusts, one of which would leave the family home in Penang, Homestead, and other properties to charity, and the other to provide for his descendants. He also donated 250,000 Malayan dollars to set up the University of Malaya, the first higher education establishment to have university status in the country.

Homestead, a mansion by the sea along the northeast coast of Penang island, was entrusted to an education foundation in 2006 and is now the campus of the Wawasan Open University.

But the extent of his charity work remained unknown to the rest of the family until his great-granddaughter Yeap started researching the book in 2008. While her research took 11 years to complete and included trips to Singapore, Britain, China and even Myanmar, where Yeap Chor Ee owned a rice mill, Yeap said she was excited every time she unearthed new information.

• Gokongwei was born in Fujian but grew up to become one of the Philippines’ wealthiest businessmen, building a fortune worth US$3.4 billion
• One of the tycoon’s most recent successes was the steady ascent of Cebu Air, a carrier he founded in 1996 with only four aircraft

John Gokongwei Jnr, a Philippine billionaire who built a business empire spanning from banking, retail to aviation, has died. He was 93.

Gokongwei died late on Saturday evening “surrounded by his loved ones” at the Manila Doctor’s Hospital, his son Lance Gokongwei said in a statement, referring to the tycoon by the nickname he’s affectionately known as, “Mr John”. He is survived by his wife, six children and at least 12 grandchildren.

Born in Fujian, China, and raised in Cebu province in the Philippines, Gokongwei started working in his early teenage years after his father died, riding his bike to sell peanuts and knick knacks in neighbouring towns across the island to provide for his five siblings. That laid the foundation for a business acumen that helped build a US$3.4 billion fortune, making him one of the country’s wealthiest people.

He eventually set his sights farther, travelling two weeks by sea and six hours by land each time to peddle rubber tires in Manila. With the money he saved, Gokongwei went into cornstarch production, predicting nascent industries like food, paper and textiles would need raw materials. The corn mill become the foundation of Universal Robina – today a 333.9 billion peso (US$6.6 billion) snacks, sweets and beverage business operating in six countries across Asia.

Aside from building a line-up of home-grown products like Jack N’ Jill chips and C2 tea drinks, Universal Robina has also gone offshore to acquire Consolidated Snacks, which owns Snack Brands Australia, and New Zealand-based biscuits maker Griffin’s Foods.

One of the tycoon’s most recent successes was the steady ascent of Cebu Air, a carrier he founded in 1996 with only four aircraft. It endured a difficult start with a plane crash that killed 104 people and struggled against flag carrier Philippine Airlines.

Its low-cost model allowed it to tap burgeoning travel demand in the country and the region. Not only did it eventually surpass its rival to become the country’s largest domestic carrier, its passenger count is poised to increase tenfold by this year to a record 23 million.

The tycoon has said he’s had seven near-death experiences. He was known for drinking Chinese tea every morning and his favourite museums include the Louvre and the Metropolitan Museum of Art.

Long before his death, the late billionaire has handed over the reins to his son Lance, who heads his key companies.

Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind

Chinese consumers collectively spent US$1 billion in just over one minute in Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza, scooping up everything from consumer electronics, luxury items and even cars just after the clock struck midnight.

Alibaba’s Singles’ Day shopping festival, which falls on November 11 every year, is the world’s largest of its kind. Last year, consumers splurged a record US$30.8 billion in just one day, and the festival will be closely watched this year as a barometer for consumer sentiment 16 months into a US-China trade war and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Alibaba is the parent company of the South China Morning Post.

While the company’s e-commerce marketplaces Tmall and Taobao are traditionally the mainstays of the annual shopping extravaganza, this year’s festival will also include business-to-business e-commerce platforms like AliExpress as well as Lazada, Alibaba’s Southeast Asian e-commerce subsidiary, as the company taps international consumers.

Apart from Alibaba, rival sites such as JD.com and Pinduoduo have also launched their own Singles’ Day campaigns, to entice buyers to spend on their platforms.

“Singles’ Day is becoming more recognised worldwide … but since it is still very much a domestic holiday and event, it is a true test of Chinese consumer power,” said Benson Ng, EY Greater China digital advisory leader.

Singles’ Day got its name from its date. Written numerically as 11/11, the date looks like “bare branches”, a Chinese expression for the single and unattached. As a kind of antidote to the societal pressures of being in a relationship, many of China’s singles began splurging on themselves on Singles’ Day, which became seen as a type of anti-Valentine’s Day.

Alibaba held its first Singles’ Day shopping event in 2009 as a promotional campaign, but these days it has morphed into a show of China’s collective consumer spending power. Last year, consumers spent 4,000 times more than they did during the first ever Singles’ Day event.

Ahead of this year’s shopping extravaganza, consumers seemed to be as eager as ever to snap up deals. Prior to the beginning of the festival on Monday, 64 brands, including Apple, Dyson, Lancome and L’Oreal, had already achieved 100 million yuan in pre-orders, Alibaba said.

Eager consumers also snapped up over 15,000 bottles of Kim Kardashian’s KKW Fragrance perfume, after the reality TV superstar conducted a live-streaming session on Tmall last Thursday to promote the brand.

A recent survey by management consulting firm Oliver Wyman showed that over 50 per cent of consumers plan to spend more during this year’s Singles’ Day festival than last year, with an expected 10 per cent increase in spending.

“Singles’ Day continues to maintain robust momentum among consumers, with over 60 per cent being more excited about this year’s festival than they were last year,” the company said in a press release. Some 60 per cent of respondents also indicated that they planned to buy imported products despite the ongoing trade war.

Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics affiliate, has an inventory of 500 million tons of goods, ready to be dispatched to consumers shopping on Singles’ Day. On this day each year, Alibaba pushes its technology and services, such as its cloud computing systems, to the limit.

This year, consumers in China’s less-developed areas and smaller cities are expected to help drive sales, according to PwC China consumer markets leader Jennifer Ye.

Consumers in China’s lower-tier cities, such as Guilin, Luoyang and Sanya, demonstrate a higher “willingness to pay” when compared with those in more affluent cities like Xiamen and Zhuhai, as people in smaller Chinese cities increasingly seek an upgrade in their quality of life and experience, according to PwC’s Global Consumer Insights Survey 2019 China Report.

2019年11月10日

国家银行下调法定储备率（SRR）至3%，提振银行股情绪，带动马股上周一度逼近1615点水平，分析员认为，若中美贸易战“休兵”协商进展良好，则马股本周有望冲上1620点水平。

Inter Pacific研究主管冯廷秀接受电访时说，国行上周五的这项宣布大幅提振银行股，连带也将富时隆综指推上1614.19点的一周高位。

“马股临尾虽回吐涨幅，未能收在1610点水平，但市场的整体投资情绪已然获得提振，而调低法定储备率的效应料能继续支撑马股走势。”

国行上周五宣布，为确保本地金融体系有足够的流动资金，下修法定储备率50个基点至3%，将于本月16日生效。

他披露，马股本周的首道支撑点落在1606点；而首道阻力点则在1616点，下一道落在1619点。

“上周一度逼近1615点，且周五闭市更是上升股多过下跌股，从这样的走势来看，马股本周很大可能会冲破1616点水平，朝1620点迈进。”

而马股上周走势稳定，全周在1595点至1614点间游走，于周一成功攀上1600点关卡，随后的4个交易日则稳健攀高，周五闭市收在1609.73点；相比前周的1593.34点，劲起16.39点或1.03%。

投资者趋谨慎

冯廷秀认为，马股周五未能冲破1610点，主要是投资者对中美贸易战“休兵”协商仍存忧虑，故选择在周末来临前套利。

“纵观东南亚股市，当中的印尼、泰国及我国都力争收高，其他股市都告跌，显示投资者因担心中美贸易战停火协商或在周末迎来变数。”

另一方面，奕丰（iFAST）分析员陈威颖指出，中国、美国及我国本周将陆续公布重大经济数据，投资者或趋向谨慎交易。

“我国本周将公布失业率、工业生产数据，及第三季国内生产总值（GDP），而中国及美国也将公布消费者物价指数（CPI）、工业生产指数、零售数据等，这些都会影响未来的市场走向。”

第三季财报牵制走势

马股第三季企业财报未来两周将是重头戏，若能有超出市场预期的表现，将可大大提振股市。

冯廷秀指出，这关乎投资者能否持续充满信心。

“当然，部分企业的财报还是会令人失望，但若多数都能交出好成绩，自然能带动投资者信心，马股也能向好。”

但若企业财报不如预期，投资者也无需惊慌失措，他指出，毕竟截至9月的财报期，仍是触底的过程。

“投资者无需因为这一次的企业财报不佳就失去希望，末季的财报表现还有希望。”

谈及企业财报，陈威颖认为，这才是真正支撑马股走势的关键。

“只有经济好转，企业获利才会改善。而企业财报若有所改善，则会促使市场调整马股的预估，我们仍看好，马股今年的表现将胜过去年。”

短期可持种植股

市场仍存隐忧，分析员建议，投资者现阶段布局投资，可关注科技、油气、保健及公用事业领域。

冯廷秀指出，科技股仍是市场焦点，而油气股近来表现也亮眼。

“若是短线投资，建议可关注种植领域。因原棕油价格回扬，现在约在每吨2400令吉，相信棕油业者末季的财报或有好消息，投资者或可关注。”

而陈威颖披露，若投资者想长期布局，则可关注能抵抗经济衰退的领域，比如保健及公用事业。

“无论经济如何变，但医疗保健需求仍在，而这个领域最大的风险则是政府的政策，不过依旧会拨款发展国家医疗保健。”

至于公用事业领域，他建议，可关注拥有稳定现金流，且有派息的股项。

本周利好

●企业财报转佳

●国内经济好转

本周利淡

●中美贸易协商变数

●企业财报逊色

●美联储货币政策未明

注意事项

●11日：大马9月失业率、大马9月PPI、英国第三季GDP

●13日：英国10月CPI、美国10月CPI、中国10月PPI

●14日：英国10月零售销售、美国10月PPI

●15日：大马第三季GDP出炉、欧元区10月CPI、美国10月零售销售

柔新捷运系统计划原订在2024年12月竣工，每小时载客量高达1万名乘客。（示意图）

柔州人引颈长盼下，我国首相敦马哈迪医生日前终于宣布，将会继续柔新捷运系统（RTS）计划，无论如何，马新两国也会再次检讨和预计需要数月时间来签署双边协议。

已6 度展延的该计划，“千呼万唤始出来，犹抱琵琶半遮面”，最终有了定案，也让好多国内外的房产投资者放下心头大石，皆大欢喜！

正值国人在新山的碧雅湾（Senibong Cove），望着那一片美不胜收的游艇停靠的风景线当儿，开始憧憬未来的退休生活，从这里开车7分钟到武吉查卡站（Bukit Cagar），乘搭捷运到新加坡兀兰(Woodlands)站，从而避开那时常动弹不得的新柔长堤车龙，心想终于可实现新柔两地快速往返生活圈了。

这次的宣布没正式交代几时开始动工及竣工，但至少拍板铁定了这计划将继续。据了解，这4公里长的柔新捷运系统计划原订在2024年12月竣工，每小时载客量高达1万名乘客，主要目的是纾缓及解决马新两国日常交通堵塞问题。

坦白说，我真是难以想象若要终止这项计划，我国政府得需赔偿约2亿令吉给新加坡。另一个亮点是，这项工程建造费用预料将从49亿3000万令吉，减至31亿6000万令吉，也就是说把承担的成本节省了36%。

柔新捷运可使两国更加紧密地互联互通。

料带动新山产业经济发展

实际上，这计划的落实不仅让这一桥之隔的马新两国日后能更加紧密地互联互通，甚至让每日往返柔新长堤的30万国人从中受惠，不必再陷入车龙中，同时也将有望带动更多的经济催化剂，特别是柔南区的商业活动、房地产、贸易、旅游等等。

最令我期待的是，柔新捷运这项催化剂将能使新山房产更具活力。

鉴于此，这计划的启动更是让整个柔佛州房产有如久旱逢甘雨，有望破除房产销售停滞不前的魔咒。

另一边厢，中央政府在2020年财政预算案也即将拨出8500万令吉提升柔新长堤和马新第二通道通关系统，包括将摩托车柜台增加至50个。从这里可看出政府十分重视并有意解决上述2个通道阻塞的课题。

新计划将催化柔南的商业活动、房地产、贸易及旅游等。

大马房屋严重负担不起？

一直以来，国人都在抱怨我国房屋是严重负担不起。根据国际公共政策顾问机构所开发的中位数倍数（median multiple）方法，一所房屋的价格不超过家庭年收入的3倍，才可被视为负担得起。

同时，这个计算方法也获世界银行、联合国及哈佛大学推荐。

鉴于此，大马的负担能力减弱，中位数倍数负担能力（房价与家庭年收入之比）从2012年的3.9倍上升至2016年的4.8倍。若按照国际标准，大马的房屋被认定是“严重负担不起”。

令人震撼的是，大多数的大马人无法负担新推出平均售价为41万7262令吉的房屋，而全国可负担房屋的最高售价是28万2000令吉。

个人觉得，政府当务之急应该重振国内经济发展。

政府规定新推出的可负担屋价，必须依照地方实际情况及家庭收入而定。

将推出可负担屋政策

为了确保可负担房屋的价格合理，以让国人有能力购买的情况下，政府将推出“国家可负担房屋政策”，规定所有新推出的可负担房屋计划的屋价，必须依照地方实际情况及家庭收入而定。

根据房屋及地方政府部长祖莱达说法，政府正以《2018-2025国家房屋政策》蓝本，拟定上述政策方案。同时，政府也将依据地方因素来监督及界定可负担房屋的价位不同，每个州属的房屋价位也不同。冀望政府能够在实施政策的方案之际，真正实现惠及B40的收入群体。

总的来说，这计划的落实与带动柔佛州的房地产投资是相辅相成，甚至将来两地的穿梭自如将会是深圳福田站到香港西九龙站的最佳写照。

扪心自问，即使柔佛房产的低迷很难在短时间内一蹴而就，但柔新捷运系统计划的落实，肯定让国内外的房产投资者们重见曙光及重拾投资信心！

美国前1％富豪坐拥的财富几乎与中产阶级和中上层阶级的加总一样多。

据彭博资讯报导，美国历史性的经济扩张使美国前1%的富豪口袋更深，其拥有的财富几乎与中产阶级和中上层阶级的加总一样多。

根据联准会数据，在过去十年中，美国收入最高的前1%家庭在股市中获得丰厚回报，以至于他们现在控制着美国公营和私营企业一半以上的股权，如此最佳的投资组合让美国这群菁英吞噬的饼越来越大。

收入前1%的富豪今年第二季拥有约35.4兆美元（约146.3兆令吉）资产，与收入前10%到50%的数千万人口持有的36.9兆美元（152.5兆令吉）资产相差无几，这些群体大部分为中上阶级或中产阶级。

专家表示，受低利率影响，一般人无法从存款凭证和其他被动投资中获得很大回报，因此将资金投入股市，并支撑整个市场。

这些投资让富豪有资格将资金投入不对外公开的避险基金和私募股权基金。许多这类基金需要500万美元（2066万令吉）的投资金额才有资格投资。“富人得到的越多，手上握有的机会也会越多”。

也许不久之后，美国前1%富豪的总资产就会超过中产阶级和中上层阶级的总和。最富裕家庭财富今年第二季增长6500亿美元（约2.7兆令吉），而收入前10%到50%族群的财富增长2100亿美元（约8681亿令吉）。

就目前来说，收入不到前1%，但在前10%的富裕阶层仍握有最大的财富分配，坐拥42.6兆美元（约176兆令吉）资产，这群人虽然有钱，但不算是超级富豪。

而最下层的50%美国家庭，仅持有6.1%美国资产，负债却占了美国总负债的35.7%。