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Abstract
The extant theoretical literature on credit reallocation yields conflicting predictions on both the extent and the efficiency of reallocation during economic downturns. Using a comprehensive dataset of Japanese firms of all sizes spanning a period of more than 30 years, including the period of prolonged economic stagnation in the 1990s called “Japan’s Lost Decade,” we examine which predictions are consistent with the data to find the following: (1) the extent of credit reallocation is smaller in recessions than in expansions, which is attributable to the decreasing extent of credit creation; (2) this tendency was more pronounced during the Lost Decade, especially for small firms that experience a significant drop in the extent of both credit creation and destruction; and (3) credit reallocation generally is efficiency-enhancing, but it is less efficiency-enhancing in recessions and became efficiency-reducing during the Lost Decade, possibly due to financial assistance by banks to large but low-quality firms (e.g., through evergreening). These findings together suggest that the inefficient credit reallocation during the Lost Decade was characterized by efficiency-reducing reallocation for large firms and a low level of aggregate reallocation for small firms.

Abstract
This study examines how trade credit is utilized in global supply chains, using a unique dataset that includes information on firm-level supplier-customer relationships for major firms in the global economy. We focused on two potential factors of trade credit: firms’ upstreamness in global supply chains and competition among suppliers, or similarly, the bargaining power of customers. Although recent literature found a positive correlation between upstreamness and trade credit, we find the correlation is insignificant when we control for competition among suppliers and the bargaining power of customers. The correlation between firms’ upstreamness and trade credit is positive and significant only in Japan. In contrast, we find that the competition among suppliers and bargaining power of customers are positively and significantly correlated with trade credit in a robust manner. Because upstreamness and competition among suppliers are often positively correlated, our finding suggests the need to incorporate competition in the literature on trade credit and upstreamness.

Abstract
This paper investigates how expansionary monetary policy after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has affected the U.S. banking sector. In response to the GFC the Federal Reserve first lowered the overnight federal funds rate from 5.25% in August 2007 to zero in December 2008. It then turned to quantitative easing, purchasing housing agency debt, mortgage-backed securities, and longer-term Treasury bonds to stimulate the economy. While these policies helped the overall economy to recover, they may have harmed the banking sector. Banks accept safe short-term deposits and transform these into risky longer-term loans. They make a profit on the difference between the interest rate they earn on longer-term assets and the rate they pay of short-term deposits (the net interest margin). Low short-term interest rates and compressed spreads between long- and short-term interest rates may impair bank profitability. Bernanke and Gertler (1995) have shown that reduced bank profitability can hinder their ability to extend loans.

Bernanke (1993) noted that this is problematic because banks play a special role in channeling savings to promising borrowers. Financial markets are plagued by information imperfections. Savers release funds today for the promise of obtaining funds later. Whether they get repaid depends on the character of the borrower, the quality of the investment, the collateral that the borrower can provide, and other factors. The lender needs to consider these items and not just interest rates. Asymmetric information can thus hinder the flow of funds from savers to small businesses and other borrowers whose quality is hard to evaluate. Banks can bridge imperfect information problems because they have a comparative advantage because of: 1) economies of specialization, as lending officers gain expertise in a particular industry; 2) economies of scale, as it is cheaper for bank to evaluate a loan than for small savers to; and 3) economies of scope, as it is cheaper to provide lending services together with other services.

This paper investigates how lower short-term rates and falls in the spread between long-and short-term rates affect bank profitability. To do this it investigates how these variables affect bank stock prices. Stock prices provide valuable information since they are the expected present value of future cash flows. The results indicate that falls in short rates and in the spread have caused large drops in bank stock returns after the GFC. Banks are also facing competitive pressures from Fin Tech firms and big technology firms. Their performance after the GFC has lagged other parts of the U.S. economy. They are thus vulnerable to negative shocks that could arise during a downturn or a crisis. The Fed should take account of the impact of their policies on the banking sector, since an interruption on the flow of credit through the financial system could prevent funds from going to the most promising firms. This misallocation of resources could then hinder long-term economic growth.

Abstract
This paper addresses the art of central bank communication, in a semantic analysis which applies a topic model to the regular press conference documents of the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa and Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda. Based on the standard method of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) in the statistical natural language processing literature, our research on the communication strategies that the BOJ pursued under two governorships using over 70 press conference documents indicates significant differences between the Shirakawa and Kuroda governorships in terms of topic distribution. In early 2016, when the negative interest rate policy was introduced during the era of Kuroda’s governorship, the ratio of “policy goal” topics decreased dramatically, despite being an essential feature of Gov. Kuroda’s vocabulary relative to Gov. Shirakawa to that point in time. Since the ambiguity in the words of the governors is contained in “discretionary” topics, which include to strengthen, to confront, to recognize, to plan and so forth, the communication strategy in the Shirakawa governorship was considered “Delphic” in that the semantic ambiguity may reveal bad fundamental conditions concerning the Japanese economy.

Abstract
We empirically investigate whether global value chains (GVCs) can affect export responsiveness to real exchange rate volatility by constructing two measures of GVC participation at bilateral and sectoral levels from OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables. The 2016 edition covers 63 countries and 16 manufacturing sectors between 1995 and 2011. A panel estimation shows that the negative effect of exchange rate volatility on exports is significantly mitigated by GVC participation, which is supported by various robustness checks. Moreover, if regional value chains were better-developed and deepened, exchange rate fluctuations among regional countries would have less negative influence on regional trade.