分类: 未分类

  • 台風19号とその後の大雨 農林水産被害額 3000億円超える

    先月の台風19号とその後の大雨による農林水産関係の被害額がこれまでに3000億円を超えました。9月の台風15号による被害額と合わせると3800億円を上回っています。

    農林水産省によりますと、台風19号とその後の大雨による農林水産関係の被害額は、25日午前9時の集計で38の都府県で3058億円に増えました。

    このうち、農地の損壊や、ため池・用水路など農業用施設の被害額が1938億円、コメやりんごなど農作物の被害額は146億円となっています。

    また林道や木材加工の施設など林業関係の被害額は755億円、漁港の施設など水産関係の被害額が122億円などとなっていて、浸水が広範囲に及んだ地域を中心に、被害額は、今後も増える見通しです。

    さらに、強風で農業用ハウスなどに大きな被害が出た9月の台風15号による影響と合わせると、被害額は3870億円余りにのぼっています。

    これは、台風や大雨による農林水産関係の被害額としては、統計のある1964年以降で最大となった去年7月の西日本豪雨をすでに上回っているということです。

    農林水産省はこれまでに延べ1000人以上の職員を被災地に派遣し復旧の支援にあたっています。

  • The bias of bias-reducing methods – bias training, bias reporting, and bias warnings do more harm than good

    Recent attempts to address bias and stereotypes – including bias training in the workplace, bias reporting hotlines on campuses, and warnings about bias and racism in movies – are not only ineffective, they make matters worse.
    Bias training creates workplace tensions where they didn’t exist, while also reducing employment opportunities for those it aims to protect. The encouragement of bias reporting on college campuses restricts free speech, encourages hoaxes, and “institutionalizes surveillance.” Movie warnings posted by entertainment companies condescend to their viewers, treating them like bigots and racists foaming at the mouth at the prospect of seeing outdated depictions of racial and other stereotypes.

    Bias Training

    With revenues of approximately of $8 billion per year, the bias training industry is big business. Nevertheless, the enterprise has been considered highly ineffective, even dangerous.

    The notion of implicit bias gained currency with the introduction of the Implicit Association Test that supposedly measures the prevalence of “implicit bias.” But the test has failed to predict racist or other bigoted behavior. Its predictive failure has led scholars to doubt whether implicit bias can even be measured, let alone be correlated with behavior.

    It is little wonder, then, that workplace bias training has produced such miserable results. Bias training has not only exacerbated workplace tensions, it has even reduced the employment opportunities of those it sought to protect. “That’s right,” remarks Time columnist Joanne Lipman, drawing on studies by Harvard organizational sociology professor Frank Dobbin and others; “companies that introduced diversity training would actually employ more women and black men today if they had never had diversity training at all.”

    Bias Reporting Hotlines

    Responding to a supposedly steep rise in hate crimes and incidences of alleged bias on campuses, at least 260 colleges and universities across the US have instituted bias reporting hotlines, with such reports reviewed by response teams (BRTs) established to adjudicate reported cases of “bias incidences” perpetrated on minorities.

    But bias reporting hotlines have caused problems of their own, including posing threats to constitutionally-protected speech, apparently encouraging a spate of “racist” hoaxes and, with BRTs operating behind closed doors and without transparency, producing a chilling effect on campuses. Bias reporting hotlines and BRTs, as well as the prevalence of no-platforming by activists, have combined to create free speech crises in American academe.

    Warnings on Films

    The film industry, most recently Disney, has also gotten in on the action, posting warnings on old films indicating that the movies include “outdated cultural depictions” of minorities. With the introduction of its new streaming service, Disney-Plus, several old Disney movie cartoons warn viewers of these outdated depictions, which some critics found insufficient. But even Disney’s warning is pedantic and insulting to viewers, who must now be cudgeled by their PC overlords before watching a cartoon.

    The Bottom Line

    The problem with such bias-reducing methods is not that bias, stereotypes, bigotry, or racism do not exist, but rather that such institutional means for supposedly counteracting them actually produce more of what they intend to eradicate. In berating the would-be racist or bigot in advance, they produce resentment for the minority populations that they pretend to protect. Nothing is more effective for generating racism than anti-racism programming.

    That’s because these anti-bias, anti-racism, anti-bigotry mechanisms and methods always are behind the real trends in culture and society and are likewise redundant. The message they convey to the supposed racist or bigot is that he or she must nevertheless be monitored, reported-on, and reminded of what racists they really are, even if only unconsciously. Is it any wonder that resentment for such liberal elitism has blossomed in the US?

  • Deutsche Bank deploys an army of robots to replace 18,000 workers

    As part of a radical $8.3 billion restructuring plan, the multinational Deutsche bank has so far axed over 4,000 jobs, with some 18,000 more staff cuts to come by 2022.

    The use of artificial intelligence has “massively increased productivity” in certain sectors of the business, according to Mark Matthews, the head of operations for Deutsche’s corporate and investment bank.

    He told the Financial News that so far “680,000 hours of manual work” has already been saved.The bank has “used bots to process 5 million transactions in its corporate bank and perform 3.4 million checks within its investment bank.”

    Matthews said the headcount “will continue to go down; there’s no question about that. Our model is to reduce costs and, at the same time, improve our control environment and the client experience.”

    Deutsche bank is pushing to “automate large parts of its back-office” via a new strategy called “Operations 4.0,” as part of its $6.6 billion savings initiative over the next three years.

  • 新加坡拥屋计划优惠期结束 房市料难续反弹

    让人民拥有房屋,实现居者有其屋的梦想,一直以来都是政府的首要任务。

    今年初,政府与代表发展商的马来西亚房地产发展商会(REHDA),联手推出了2019年拥屋计划(HOC 2019),协助国人以较低的成本和门槛购买房屋。

    对发展商而言,解决产业滞销问题,清理手上囤积已久的库存,则是它们的当前急务。

    根据各方反馈取得的结论,无疑的,2019年拥屋计划已成功推高房产市场的买气,一举摆脱过去几年的低迷走势,但房产以至整个产业市场是否自此扭转乾坤,2020年有更好的走势?

    诚如我们今年上半年所见的,在政府祭出豁免印花税的利好政策刺激下,产业市场表现大有起色,价量齐升。

    根据澳洲房产集团永利行(Raine & Horne)大马分公司Raine & Horne International Zaki +Partners公司指出,今年上半年,产业市场比起去年同期好很多。产业成交量和成交总值,分别按年增长6.9%及0.8%。

    永利行指出,产业市场去年已有改善迹象,并预料在今年进一步走稳。希望联盟去年5月上台后,新政府于2019年财政预算案中宣布今年上半年推行2019年拥屋计划,成功推高了产业市场的买气。

    2019年拥屋计划原本是于今年上半年推行,政府过后同意延长至今年12月31日,令这项原本为期半年的计划,变成一整年。

    该行在一份研究大马产业市场2010年至今走势的研究报告中指出,拜2019年拥屋计划所赐,我们见证了产业市场今年上半年渐入佳境,而下半年也因为2019年拥屋计划延长至今年结束,前景保持强韧。

    刺激国人投资产业意愿

    经济增长保持强稳,以及政府主导的各项措施,进一步支撑了房产领域的市场交投活动。

    “2020年财政预算案料将刺激国人的产业投资意愿,尤其是首购族,可通过各项融资工具,有能力购买人生中的第一间房子。 况且,政府正大力推广TOD (Transit Oriented Developments),即以公共交通为导向的综合发展计划,这类发展概念将让购屋者更轻易的进出主要地区,但愿此举也可协助降低生活成本。”

    不过,不是所有人都看好明年本地房产市场的走势。

    中低价及可负担屋
    豁免征产业盈利税

    永利行在报告中提到,为了控制市场的亢奋情绪,政府在上月出炉的2020年财政预算案中,宣布调整产业盈利税,对购买5年后脱售的产业,征收5%产业盈利税。

    翻开历史,可以发现,政府曾在2007年4月至2009年12月期间,暂时搁置产业盈利税政策。此外,产业盈利税税率曾分别于2011、2013及2014年进行调整。

    房产续扮演产业走势领头羊

    值得一提的是,在2020年财政预算案中,政府宣布,价格20万令吉以下的中低价屋及可负担房屋,豁免征收产业盈利税。

    2015至2017年期间,国内产业市场连续3年价量齐跌。在这之前,产业成交量曾于2011年达到顶峰,按年增长14.3%至43万403单位。

    当年,产业总成交值更劲扬28.3%,达到1378亿令吉。房产市场持续扮演产业市场上扬走势的领头羊。

    2015年,尽管产业成交量下跌,但产业价格却持续扬升,主要是建筑材料成本上扬所致,而前朝国阵政府于2015年4月实行消费税,更进一步推高产业价格。

    到了2016及2017年,国际原油及原产品价格双双暴跌,以及令吉汇率下挫,加剧了产业市场的跌势。

    产业市场越来越不活跃

    永利行指出,2010年是过去10年来,大马经济表现最好的一年。2010年上半年,我国经济按年增长9.5%。

    此外,当年的外来直接投资更飙升6倍至290亿令吉,是亚洲外来直接投资增长率最高的经济体。

    供应增加需求下跌

    然而,到了今天,可负担房屋仍是困扰大马人的一大难题。加上令吉汇率疲弱,以及中美贸易战打击我国经济,产业市场也变得越来越不活跃。尽管产业供应增加,但需求却下跌。

    可负担房屋一直是国内备受关注的大课题。国家银行早前指出,根据国际标准,本地屋价“严重无法负担”。这里的可负担房屋定义,是房屋价格不超过家庭年收入的3倍。

    然而,在2016年,国内房屋价格是国人平均家庭年收入的4.8倍。国库控股在其最新报告“2018年家庭现况”中也阐明了这点。

    永利行指出,事实上,自2011年以来,政府已推行了各项房屋计划,以协助40%最低收入群体(B40)及40%中产阶级(M40)一圆居者有其屋的梦想,以摆脱无壳蜗牛的窘境。

    为了扭转这个不利局面,政府已建议多项奖掖及发展计划,以协助国人购买房屋。

    除了2019年拥屋计划,政府也在今年推出产业众筹平台,降低产业投资的入门成本,协助首购族买房。

    房市进入调整期

    大马房地产发展商会森州分会主席黄丽萍认为,我国经济未来走势不确定性,房市前景依然不可预料,加上政府推出的拥屋计划优惠期结束,明年我国房市将进入调整期。

    她说,房市反弹的利好因素未能持续发酵,例如2019年拥屋计划的优惠将在今年杪结束,发展商需更谨慎根据市场需求而推出房产,2020年房产市场料无法延续今年的房市反弹趋势。

    她表示,政府今年宣布多项利好政策刺激房产市场,如下调外国人买房门槛,但房屋政策的权力在州政府,该政策需要各州政府根据自己地区的需求而作出调整,现阶段发展商和外国人仍观望。

    她赞赏政府推出拥屋计划及延长至今年杪,成功帮助发展商的房产销售,特别是发展商手上有一些销售走势较慢甚至滞销的产业。

    清空滞销房产

    2019年拥屋计划为购屋者提供多项优惠,其中一项就是价格介于30万至100万令吉的房屋,豁免印花税,当然,有关交易必须在今年内完成。

    此外,发展商提供10%房价折扣,达至政府、发展商和市民皆大欢喜的三赢模式。

    “今年截至11月15日,森州创下1673间参与拥屋计划的房产销售成绩,总销售额为11亿1330万5854令吉18仙,而折扣10%房价后销售额为9亿1589万9208令吉2仙。”

    她表示,发展商透过这项拥屋计划,成功把很多以往销售较慢的房产,以优惠方式出售,该计划帮助发展商清空滞销房产是不容置疑;发展商成功销售房产,把套牢着的款项周转出来。

    销售周期料更长

    发展商赶在该计划结束前尽可能把房产销售出去,而明年起发展商手上可能没有太多的发展项目,他们需要研究市场需求,才制定全新发展项目。

    她表示,目前房产市场最大的问题是购屋者的房贷无法轻易被银行审批,这意味着发展商推出的房产未必如预期般能在短时间内被市场消化,销售周期会更长。

    由于网购领域异军突起,她预测,接下来工业产业和仓库是未来趋势,只要发展商做好研究工作,根据需求做出发展项目,肯定可以取得亮眼的销售成绩;反之发展商依然故我的推出不符市场要求的房产,导致销售走势缓慢,发展商的现金周转可能会被套着。

  • 新加坡本地研究:相较组屋和公寓 有地住宅居民染骨痛热症风险更高

    一篇由国家环境局环境卫生学院、卫生部和南洋理工大学生物科学系去年发表在美国热带医学和卫生学会的论文,分析了新加坡2013年至2016年的骨痛热症流行病学规律,发现住房类型跟染病率息息相关。

    栽种植物的花园、宽阔的空间、屋檐上的排水沟、还有各式容器都可成为伊蚊滋生的温床,本地研究显示,住在有地住宅的人染上骨痛热症的风险,要比住组屋和公寓的人高出许多,而且最近几年染病率有激增的现象。

    一篇由国家环境局环境卫生学院、卫生部和南洋理工大学生物科学系去年发表在美国热带医学和卫生学会(American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene)的论文,分析了新加坡2013年至2016年的骨痛热症流行病学规律,发现住房类型跟染病率息息相关。

    骨痛热症患者绝大部分是在本地染病,在本土病例中,最容易“中招”的往往是洋房居民,而不是高楼居民,而且情况日趋严重。以每10万人来说,2012年,有地住宅居民中不到300人染病,到了2013年高发年猛增到900人,虽然之后有所回落,到了2016年又攀升。相比之下,组屋和公寓的染病率就低得多,维持在300人以内。

    虽然大部分患者还是高楼住户,但他们占所有病患的比率,已从2005年的81.3%减少到2015年的66.1%。

    论文指出,这个发现跟2004年和2010年的两次全国健康调查不谋而合——住在有地住宅的居民,血液中含有骨痛热症病毒的比率是所有住房类型中最高的。

    “有地住宅的环境更容易滋生蚊虫,因为有很大的前院、比较大的空间和大量容器。”

    伊丽莎白诺维娜医院传染病顾问医生梁浩楠指出,要到有地住宅检查有没有积水的确比较困难,有时候落叶、丢在门外的垃圾和水沟都可能滋生伊蚊。

    住在有地住宅的梁浩楠说:“不只是自己的家要照顾好,还要确保整个邻里都没有问题,这是大家的责任。”

    政府国会环境及水源委员会主席李美花也想更深入了解有地住宅滋生伊蚊的原因,以及其他国家是否也有同样趋势。负责义顺南事务的李美花说,义顺南有很多有地住宅,她跟国家环境局联手对洋房居民进行宣导时,发现他们的防蚊意识并不低,只是他们的日常检查可能没那么透彻和频繁。

    “大部分防蚊的贴士对有地住宅和高楼居民都有帮助,比如确保花盆里没有积水,当局的宣导资料中也包括检查屋檐的排水沟,但环境局或许可以为洋房和组屋居民各设计一套检查清单,让大家更清楚知道该做些什么。”

    今年是继2016年
    另一骨痛热症高发年

    目前人在越南的李美花说,她出国前会盖上排水孔、马桶盖和关上窗户等,也会在12月提醒所有要出国的居民这么做。

    今年是继2016年后另一个骨痛热症高发年,截至11月9日,已有1万3867人染病,比去年同时期的2466人高出近五倍,死亡人数已达20人,这或是自2007年有24人丧命后,12年来最高的。最近的每周病例也连续五个星期上升。

    相信是在19世纪通过航运从非洲落户东南亚国家的埃及伊蚊(Aedes aegypti),是传播骨痛热症的祸首。本地研究发现,随着城市化和人口增加,有伊蚊孑孓滋生的房地产整体上占2%,维持在低水平,但在有地住宅中却特别高。

    论文指出,滋生地点也有扩大的迹象,而且四种病毒血清型(serotype)中,每当一型和二型对调“主导权”时,往往预示着病例将会大爆发。

  • China’s civil service exam attracts 1.4 million applicants with eyes on the prize of an ‘iron rice bowl’ job

    China’s civil service exam attracts 1.4 million applicants with eyes on the prize of an ‘iron rice bowl’ job

    A young woman does some last minute revision for the public service exam on Sunday. 
    • Security and a steady income continue to be a major draw, despite 60-to-one odds against success
    • Most popular positions are at the National Archives Administration and State Administration for Market Regulation, report says

    More than 1.4 million Chinese sat an examination on Sunday in the hope of landing one of just 24,000 government jobs up for grabs.

    The national public service exam, or guokao as it is known in Mandarin, is a hotly contested annual event, with this year’s entrants having just a one-in-60 chance of success.

    The jobs on offer are in 86 central government agencies and 23 institutions directly attached to them, with the successful candidates set to take up their positions early next year, China News reported.

    This year’s 1.44 million registered test-takers represented a 4 per cent increase from last year, but fell below the 1.66 million who sat the exam in 2017, the report said.

    The guokao has long been a big draw for Chinese jobseekers as government jobs are regarded as providing an “iron rice bowl” of security and money.

    The number of people registering for the test first passed 1 million in 2009 as China, like the rest of the world, battled the fallout from the global financial crisis.

    Some of the most sought-after positions on offer this year are at the National Archives Administration and the State Administration for Market Regulation, the report said.

    All candidates are required to sit a written exam covering areas such as Chinese politics, international affairs, language and logic. Those applying for positions in the fields of finance, public security and foreign affairs also have to take a professional skills test.

    China has made job creation a top policy priority in recent years, given the pressure on economic growth and its vast numbers of university graduates.

    The country’s urban unemployment rate stood at 5.1 per cent in October, down from 5.2 per cent in September, according to official figures.

    More than 11 million new jobs were created in the first 10 months of the year, matching the government’s full-year target.

  • How Costco gained a cult following — by breaking every rule of retail

    Costco has found immense success by prioritizing the interests of its customers and employees over those of its shareholders.

    On first impression, Costco makes no sense.

    It is a place where you can buy, in the course of one trip, a 27-pound bucket of mac and cheese, a patio table, a wedding dress, a casket, a handle of gin, a tank of gas, a passport photo, a sheepskin rug, a chicken coop, prescription medications, life insurance, a $1.50 hotdog, and a $250,000 diamond ring.

    Items sit on wooden pallets in dark, unmarked aisles. Brand selection is limited. And you pay a $60 annual membership fee just to get in the door.

    The end goal: To cut the “fat” out of traditional retail and pass on the savings to loyal customers and employees.

    This philosophy often anguishes Costco’s shareholders — but it has also earned the company a cult following around the world. At a time when brick-and-mortar retail is crumbling at the feet of e-commerce, Costco has experienced steady growth.

    How did this nondescript chain of warehouses find success?

    A brief history of Costco

    In 1954, an attorney named Sol Price inherited a vacant airport hangar in San Diego.

    He raised $50k in capital, stocked up on wholesale jewelry, furniture, and liquor, and launched Fedmart, a warehouse-style store where government employees could pay a $2 membership fee to access an assortment of deals.

    By the time Sol sold Fedmart in 1975, he’d grown it into a $350m-per-year, 40-location chain — and ushered in a new age of “membership club” retail.

    But Sol wasn’t done. The following year, he launched Price Club, a one-stop shop that offered everything from car tires to dishwashers at heavily discounted prices. Price Club went against the common grain of business school textbooks: It didn’t advertise. Its stores were ugly and bare-bones. And it refused to gratuitously mark up items.

    Among Sol’s protégés was a young whippersnapper named James (Jim) Sinegal.

    Sinegal began his career in retail as a 19-year-old bagger at Fedmart and, over two decades, worked his way up to the company’s EVP of merchandising. He continued on to Price Club — and by the early ‘80s, he was well-steeped in Sol’s strategies and ready to branch out on his own.

    In September of 1983, Sinegal and his pal Jeff Brotman launched the first Costco in Seattle, a giant retail warehouse modeled on Sol’s unique principles.

    By 1993, Costco was such a looming threat that Price Club (its inspiration) agreed to a merger. The resulting company, PriceCostco, was short lived: Four years later, it was rebranded simply as ‘Costco,’ and Sinegal assumed the throne.

    Today, Costco is one of the world’s largest retailers, boasting 770+ locations and 245,000 employees. Last year, it had more than $140B in sales.

    But unlike many of its counterparts on Fortune’s Global 500 list, Costco has risen to the top by flying in the face of traditional wisdom.

    1. It refuses to boost markups

    “If [saving the customer money] doesn’t turn you on,” Sinegal, who retired as CEO in 2012, once said, “then you’re in the wrong business.”

    Surely enough, Costco’s immense buying power allows it to finagle deep discount deals with vendors, and the savings are always passed down to its shoppers.

    Costco has stated in the past that it caps its markups at 14% for brand-name items, and 15% for its in-house Kirkland brands — even wine, which is notorious for its 200% to 300% markups elsewhere.

    But according to the company’s 2018 annual report, the average item in the store is only marked up 11%, compared to the 25%-50% often seen in retail.

    That means that if Costco pays $100 wholesale for, say, a pound of Wagyu beef, it sells it to you for a mere $111. Because Costco buys in such large volumes, its purchase price is often lower than other retailers to begin with; add in the company’s reduced markups, and you’ve got yourself a much cheaper piece of meat.

    In fact, Costco’s prices are so low that it barely breaks even on its merchandise sales. And despite pressure from investors over the years, it has refused to boost its markup.

    Not long ago, Costco was selling Calvin Klein jeans for $29 a pop — already $20 less than almost anywhere else — when a change in its purchasing deal meant Costco could get them for even less from the vendor. Instead of keeping the extra profit from the improved deal, it lowered the jeans’ price to $22.

    “Many retailers look at an item and say, ‘I’m selling this for $10; how can I sell it for $11?’ We look at it and say, ‘How can we get it to $9?’ And then, ‘How can we get it to $8?’” Sinegal later said. “It is contrary to the thinking of a retailer, which is to see how much more profit you can get out of it. But once you start doing that, it’s like heroin.”

    So, how does Costco make its money?

    2. It charges people to enter its stores

    Forty years ago, most retailers would’ve considered it crazy to charge customers money for the right to wander through their doors and buy stuff.

    Yet, Costco’s members gladly pay annual fees ($60 for “Gold Star” and $120 for “Executive”) because they believe that having access to the chain’s economies of scale and bulk quantities justifies the upfront cost.

    As of 2018, 51,600,000people pay Costco membership fees, good for $3.14B in annual revenue. More impressively, the renewal rate is a whopping 90%.

    Unlike other discount chain customers, the majority of these cardholders are largely affluent ($100k+ income) and college-educated. They’re also, as it turns out, extremely cultish in their devotion to the wholesaler: There are Costco blogs, Costco forums, and Costco Facebook groups with thousands of followers.

    “I love spreading the word of Costco to anyone who will listen,” writes one fan, who goes by ‘The Costco Connoisseur.’ “I have been to over 179 Costco Warehouses across 33 states and 5 different countries.”

    Retail experts attribute this rabid devotion to the membership card, and the shared appreciation of frugality that it signifies.

    “There is a certain exclusivity in the Costo card that makes you a part of a tribe,” says Pam Danziger, of Unity Marketing. “This built-in brand loyalty has carried them very far.”

    Another byproduct of charging shoppers a fee upfront is that it preempts them to defeat the sunken cost fallacy: Since they’re out $60 before even setting foot in the store, they feel they have to indulge in as many deals as possible to make up for it.

    At Costco, this often means buying products in much larger volumes.

    3. It stocks massive volumes of few products

    Prevailing retail wisdom tells us that excess choice is good — that shoppers want to walk down the chip aisle and be able to pick from 100 varieties and brands. Costco, on the other hand, acts as a bulk curator for its customers.

    The average warehouse stocks just 3,700 SKUs at any given time, less than 1/10th of most supermarkets’ 40,000 to 50,000 items, and not much more than the average corner store. Often, Costco provides only one or two brands in a given category.

    “They know their customers very well,” says Danziger, “and this enables them to limit choices to things their customers are most likely to want.”

    In doing so, Costco solves the paradox of choice — a conundrum consumers encounter when an abundance of options causes stress and delays decision-making.

    There is also an economic incentive to stocking fewer items: With less selection, there is less labor. In retail, every hand that touches an item (stocking, organizing, rearranging) costs money. Costco’s supply chain is rigged to minimize contact: Items are removed from trucks and driven straight to the aisles on forklifts, where they sit in giant pallets, waiting to be plucked by shoppers.

    But less, of course, is often more.

    While Costco stocks less, it sells items in titanic quantities. If you want eggs, expect a 90 pack. Waffles? 60 to a box. Mayonnaise? 4-pound tub. And good luck finding a single bag of Hot Cheetos: They only come in packs of 64.

    This is because the company understands that it makes more financial sense for a shopper to spend $400 once per month than $100 in 4 separate trips: It saves customers time, but also reduces Costco’s expended resources.

    4. It reengineers products to be cheaper

    Because Costco stocks limited inventory in massive amounts, it is extremely fickle about the vendors it chooses to work with.

    When Costco comes across a product it likes, it often spends months working closely with the vendor and its factories to both reduce the price of an item and amp up its quality. 

    In the 2012 CNBC doc “Costco Craze,” a Costco buyer related one tale about a toy he found that retailed for $100. The company had the option of buying the unit for $50 wholesale and selling it for around $60 — but this wasn’t good enough.

    Over a period of months, Costco ended up working with the vendor and its factory to redesign the toy from the ground up, analyzing every part of the process for ways to cut costs. In the end, Costco got the vendor to reduce the price by 50%, and sold it for $30.

    The profit margin Costco made from the toy at $30 was the same it would’ve made at $60: The time and resources the company invested to lower the price were strictly for the benefit of their shoppers.

    In another instance, reengineering a container of cashews from a circle to a square shape allowed Costco to stack more items in a single truck, reducing the number of shipments by 24,000 pallets per year. For shoppers, this meant cheaper nuts.

    But Costco’s most important initiative has nothing to do with the products it sells.

    5. It realizes the economic incentive for treating employees well

    Retail workers are among America’s lowest-paid employees, earning an average of around $10 per hour. They rarely get full benefits, and their employers view them as expendable (turnover rates are as high as 65%).

    But Costco realizes that it is more cost effective to retain happy employees and — brace yourself — actually pay them a livable wage, than it is to churn and burn. 

    The average pay among its 245,000 workers (143,000 full-time, 102,000 part-time) works out to $21 per hour, double the national retail average and nearly 2x Walmart’s going rate. Moreover, 88% of Costco workers receive company-sponsored health insurance.

    This mentality that has earned the company some of the highest retention rates in the industry — and many employees stay at Costco for more than a decade.

    “I don’t see what’s wrong with an employee earning enough to be able to buy a house or have a health plan for the family,” Sinegal once told the Los Angeles Times

    Investors, however, haven’t always seen it that way.

    6. It values its customers over its shareholders

    CEOs of public companies often blame unpopular decisions — price hikes, layoffs, cutting corners — on their “responsibility to maximize shareholder value.”

    In the last 30 years, the percentage of corporate profits going to stockholders has increased from 50% to 86%, resulting in fewer deals for customers and less money for employees. This investor-first mentality has, in many ways, harmed American industry.

    Since the day Costco went public in December of 1985, investors have complained that the company has been “too generous” with its customers and employees. They’ve called for higher markups on goods, steeper prices, and reduced benefits for workers.

    But Costco has always insisted that their policies aren’t just altruistic — they’re good for business: By sticking to their principles, stock has gone up 387% since 2000.

    “On Wall Street, they’re in the business of making money between now and next Thursday,” Sinegal told the New York Times in 2005. “We can’t take that view. We want to build a company that will still be here 50 years from now.”

    In other words, about twice as long as the shelf life on its 27-pound tubs of mac and cheese.

  • New investments fell to a 15-year low in the midst of slowdown, says report

    • A CARE Ratings report says that new investments in India fell to a 15-year low in the first half of FY20.
    • The total new investment in H1 FY20 stood at ₹1.9 lakh crore.
    • Investments in manufacturing, construction, real estate and irrigation have increased but those in mining, electricity have taken a hit.

    The Indian economy is in a dismal state and now a CARE ratings report shows that new investments in India fell to a 15-year low in the first half of FY20.

    The total new investment in H1 FY20 stood at ₹1.9 lakh crore. During the same period in the previous year, as much as ₹6.1 lakh crore were pumped into the economy.

    According to the report, investments in manufacturing, construction, real estate and irrigation have increased but those into mining and electricity have taken a hit.

    “The investment rate has declined consistently over the years and remained range bound between 28%-29% of GDP in the past 4 years. This has been a detrimental factor for the overall economic growth of the country,” said the report.

    Odisha had the highest share of new investments, and has overtaken Maharashtra.

    Investments are also slowing down because of the rising number of stalled projects. In FY19, 53% of government owned projects were stalled. However, in FY20, half of the stalled projects are privately owned. Most of the stalled projects were seen in the services sector, followed by electricity and manufacturing.

    The report stated that the reason for stalled projects has been lack of non- environmental clearances and lack of funds.

  • 英杰华决定保留新中保险业务

    保险业者英杰华集团(Aviva PLC)周一表示,公司决定保留在新加坡和中国的业务,但对香港、越南和印度尼西亚业务战略选项的评估仍在继续。

    新加坡是它的一大市场,它在中国有合资企业。

    这家富时100指数成份股公司说,它已决定保留该公司的新加坡业务。

    它之前对新加坡业务进行了一项全面评估,包括寻找买家,结论是保留该业务将实现股东的最佳价值。

    它指出,它考虑到中国的市场规模、与合作伙伴的良好关系以及高增长前景,因此决定保留中国的合资企业中英人寿(Aviva-COFCO)。

    它表示,公司在继续与香港、越南和印尼的合作伙伴探讨这些地区和国家业务的各种选项。

  • 少子化高龄化若持续 日本896县市可能消失

    人口持续减少的最终结果是城市消亡。这个情况已在人口持续老化的日本出现。阻止城市消失,成了日本各地方政府必须严肃思考的问题。日本政府对策是先从吸引年轻人组织家庭开始,翻新公屋与社区、改善居住环境等措施,成为重中之重。

    占地763.2平方公里的日本北海道夕张市(Yubari)于上世纪60年代是日本的矿业重镇,当时居住人口达11万。自从煤矿业没落后,人口逐渐流失,2000年的统计显示不足1万人;2007年,该市政府因人口凋零和产业外移导致财政不胜负荷而宣布破产,成了日本首个“城市消亡”案例。

    日本放送协会(NHK)近期纪录片《缩小日本带来的冲击》介绍了夕张市的现况:破产10多年后,夕张市依然深陷财政困境,年税收不到8亿日元(1004万新元),负债高达26亿日元,靠削减行政开支度日。

    夕张市公共福利部长6月发出文告说:“原本的260名公务员一次过减至55人,留下的公务员都将减薪。人手短缺导致市内的公共服务质量每况愈下,但为了偿还债务又不得不调高税金。夕张市居民要比日本其他城市缴付更高的居民税,例如汽车税金就比其他地方高出1.5倍。久而久之,再也没人愿意在此居住;这是一个恶性循环,人口仍会继续减少……”

    近期前往夕张的日本游人纷纷在网上留言,对夕张败落的景象感到难过。

    年轻网民上载的照片包括空置的民宅、校园与教室。该市原有七所小学和四所中学,如今已全部关闭。

    他们如此描述:走入夕张,犹如一次“废墟之旅”。从早到晚,路上无车无人,令人联想:这会不会是人口不断萎缩的日本40年后的样子?

    2014年调查报告敲响人口警钟

    夕张的命运说明了一个事实:人口减少关系城市存亡,更关乎国家前途,绝对不容忽视。

    日本政府智囊团2014年发布《可能消失的日本城市》调查报告,由时任总务部长增田宽率领调研。这份研究人口减少导致城市消失的调查结论是:“40年后,全日本1799个城市中可能有896个会消失”,信息发布后对日本社会乃至国家的存亡拉响了警报。

    调查是以日本女性平均生育率1.4、地方人口,以及20岁至39岁处于生育期女性人数等因素为依据,估算出上述结果。

    专家指出,一个地区若流失了生育期女性人口达三成,40年后当地人口会减少一半。依此推算,日本全国1799个城市中有896个是“可能消失的城市”,另外523个城市的人口已经少于1万人,属于“濒临消失”。

    目前,处境最危险的是青森县,其次是岛根县。在岛根县,65岁以上人口多达七成,84个村子,每村不到10户,被列为“人口危机部落群”。

    这份“可能消失的日本城市”名单已经提交日本国会,作为政府应对人口课题的重要参考。各大政府部门也依据这份调查,评估少子化与高龄化对未来社会可能造成的冲击。

    日本劳动部预测,到了2025年,全国老人护理领域的劳动力缺口将达到37万人;国土交通部预测,到2033年,全国可能有三成空置房屋;财政部预测,到了2065年,日本每一名劳动者要担负1.3名老人的社保开销。

    少子化是一场灾难  

    少子化和人口高龄化是造成城市消失的主要原因。

    2016年,日本新生宝宝有97万个,首次少于100万个,之后更逐年创新低。日本受困于高龄化和少子化的问题已久,一直都无法找到解决之道。去年,日本的生育率不仅没回升,有四个城市的新生儿记录为零。

    联合国《世界人口展望》数据显示,世界人口到了2050年将从目前的76亿人增至98亿人,2100年可达112亿人。日本人口趋势与世界背道而驰,预估2053年人口将从目前的1亿2625万首次跌破亿,并将继续减至8000多万人。日本在世界人口排名榜上也将从第11位跌至第17位。

    美国高盛根据人口因素对生产力的影响,评估了日本的经济前景。报告的结论是:若生育率无法提高至2.06,(日本)国内生产总值(GDP)将大降。到了2050年,日本的GDP或许会被印度、巴西和印度尼西亚等新兴经济体超越,从目前的世界第三大经济体降至第八。

    学者:人口须从都市集中转向地方分散型

    安倍政府根据《可能消失的日本城市》调查报告,拟定了《少子化对策大纲》,其中包括设下生育率目标由目前的1.4提升至1.8。为了鼓励民众多生养,政府承诺多管齐下给予帮助,包括改善居住环境和建设更多育儿园等。

    除了政府,日本各界也纷纷探讨有关课题,寻找对策。

    京都大学几年前设立了“心的未来研究中心”,与企业界联手研究如何以人工智能保障2050年后的经济持续发展。他们至今已进行了100多个模拟实验。

    负责研究任务的广井良典教授说:“实验告诉我们,日本现在处于人口政策的重要分水岭,人口分布必须从都市集中型转向地方分散型。

    “日本从明治时代开始,为了发展工业化经济,实施了都市集中型政策。昭和时代延续了这一路线,到了平成时代(1990年),随着人口减少和高龄化加速,日本经济陷入长期低迷,新一代也因对经济前景感到不安而不愿传宗接代。”

    广井分析,日本人口结构最大危机是14岁以下人口一直处于递减状态,15岁至64岁的劳动力人口仅占六成。到了2025年,婴儿潮时代出生的大部分人将进入75岁高龄层,人口递减将加速。

    广井认为,日本必须摒弃都市集中型人口政策,转向地方分散型发展,将人口分布朝向不同区域疏导,并重视地方发展,缩小城乡经济差距。日本今年刚迈入令和时代,新时代的使命便是须迫切为人口逐减的社会谋出路。

     丰岛区去年生育率40年来首增长

    很多人都以为,日本可能消失的城市一定都是远离大都会的穷乡僻壤,首都和周围地区不会上榜。其实不然,危险名单上的896个城镇中,属于东京都内23区的丰岛区赫然在列。

    丰岛区的池袋(Ikebukuro)是一个日夜人潮汹涌的城市核心商区,包括东京环线山手线在内的八条铁路线在此交汇,每天流动人口约270万人次,周围全是著名百货商店,是东京都三大区之一。

    对于丰岛区被列入“可能消失的城市”名单,该区行政机构一职员说:“当时我们都觉得这个报告有问题,认为它危言耸听,形势严峻的应该是地方城市,怎么会是丰岛区这样一个东京大都会呢?

    “冷静后仔细想想,日本全国人口减少,丰岛区实际上也面对严重的生育率下降问题。这个报告把我们从梦中唤醒。”

    其实,池袋人潮不断看似繁华,但熙来攘往的是流动人口,并非区内居民。

    调查也显示,丰岛区很多女性在婚后就搬离,原因是周遭环境不适合育儿。丰岛区生育率为0.99,远低于日本全国平均生育率1.2。

    此外,丰岛区单身居民多,其中超过50岁更占了人口的四成。这些居民逐渐老去,区内人口青黄不接,人口危机持续加深。

    丰岛区被列入“黑名单”后,区当局加紧寻求对策,除了设立了“持续发展都市推动本部”,还创立了名为“创建女性温和街道”的部门,力求提升居住环境,吸引年轻人和新婚家庭入住。

    丰岛区环境改造工程负责人宫田麻子曾在微软任职,她受访时说:“要让人口回升,必须创造改善生育的条件,譬如在打造居住环境时融入女性观点……丰岛区要创设既适合老幼,又能接纳外国居民的多元化社会。”

    宫田麻子主导改革 首先整修公厕

    宫田的第一个改革计划是整修公园,从最不起眼的公厕着手。她动员区内艺术工作者为公厕外墙和内壁设计图案。

    起初,很多人都不理解她的用意,后来公园绿树成荫,公厕外墙变成五彩缤纷的画廊,幼儿班老师经常带孩子们到公园嬉戏,一片朝气蓬勃。

    宫本说:“美化厕所能让公园更具亲和力,既方便居民,还可成为举办活动的社交场所。要建设可持续发展的地区,必须加强人的交流。”

    日本公厕向来为外国游客称道,丰岛区的艺术公厕更令人激赏。该区计划配合明年东京奥运,将“艺术公厕”工程扩大到区内所有133个公厕,甚至考虑在公厕周围办画展,以吸引游客,激活社区。

    配合环境改造 商家增添惠民设施

    丰岛区行政部门的最终目标是增加定居人口,确保区内持续发展,争取商界的支持与配合是手段之一。

    丰岛区行政部门与多个商家缔结伙伴协定,共同推动区内发展,推出照顾小家庭的活动。例如,百货公司重建时考虑了居民的需求,增添惠民设施,如在顶楼设儿童游乐场。

    丰岛区的努力奏效了。这个被列入“可能消失城市”名单的地区,近期被选为“职业夫妇最温暖宜居地”。去年7月,丰岛区人口终于摆脱了下滑的趋势,相隔40年来首次出现增长。

    翻新公屋改善居住环境 一些地方宜居对策见功效

    东京丰岛区四年内成功扭转劣势,说明要缓和高龄化与少子化的趋势与冲击,改变居住环境至关重要。日本政府因此把改革公共住屋,列为人口政策大纲重点。

    在日本,公共住屋称为“公共团地”,意为“集体住屋”。1950年代,日本大力发展工业,为了将劳动人口汇聚到各工业区,当局广建单身宿舍型公屋,出租给打工群体。1960年代至1970年代,当局在都市内外建设适合家庭居住、类似新加坡组屋的公屋,通过抽签,分租给还无能力买房的新婚夫妇。当年这些住房都有最新设施,设计格局也符合小家庭需要,因此深受欢迎。直至人口扩张、经济起飞的1980年代,当局在全日本总共建设了2903个公屋区。

    翻新公屋鼓励年轻人成家

    当社会的人口趋向老化后,空置的公屋单位日益增多。许多地区如今为了吸引年轻人入住,采取了翻新和改良老房的措施,这不但解决了年轻人的住房问题,也鼓励他们组织家庭、生儿育女。

    日本公共住房是由都市再生机构(UR)管理,该机构官员告诉《联合早报》:“这些公共住宅虽然屋龄已高,但设计和管理都到位。

    “我们目前积极翻新老屋,好吸引新一代入住。我们以不同的主题进行改造,希望让新一代有更高的生活质量。”

    据该机构透露,位于东京立川市的柏町公共住屋在40年前建成,当局目前正引进“物联网”设施,翻新老屋,以吸引年轻人入住。翻新后的公屋将拥有电器遥控装置和最新式家电,例如会自动折叠衣服的洗衣机等,为须照顾家庭的职业女性提供方便。

    在神奈川县,一组建设于1965年的公屋进行了大规模的环境改造工程,把停车场改建为有山坡的天然花园,还有小型农园和儿童游乐场,居住环境大幅改善,现在成了许多小家庭竞相争取入住的热门公屋,八成居民年龄未满30岁。

    埼玉县则通过与该县四所大学合作,将武里的公屋分租给年轻人。大学动员学生积极参与社区活动,学生成了社区的生力军,解决了地区因人口老化而缺乏人力的问题。