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  • OPEC准备加大减产力度 俄罗斯尚未同意

    石油输出国组织(OPEC)正为本周稍晚的进一步减产决定作准备,但仍需要与俄罗斯等盟友就支持油价和防止明年出现石油供应过剩局面的协议细节达成一致。

    OPEC将于周四在维也纳举行政策会议,随后OPEC将于周五与俄罗斯和其他国家(OPEC+)举行会议。

    自2017年以来,OPEC+一直控制石油产量,以应对美国产量激增,而美国已成为全球最大的产油国。

    明年,诸如巴西和挪威等非OPEC国家石油产量不断增加可能会加剧供应过剩的情况。

    OPEC过去的减产行动激怒美国总统特朗普,他曾多次要求OPEC实际上的领导人沙特阿拉伯降低油价,如果沙特希望美国向沙特提供军事支持,对抗主要竞争对手伊朗。

    过去几个月,特朗普几乎没有谈到OPEC,但是如果石油和汽油价格上涨,这种情况可能在2020年晚些时候改变。石油和汽油价格上涨在美国是一个政治敏感问题。而特朗普将在明年11月寻求连任。

    OPEC第二大产油国伊拉克周二表示,沙特支持OPEC+加大减产力度,从目前的每日减产120万桶进一步增至160万桶,相当于全球需求的1.6%。

    “我的理解是,他们(沙特)确实(愿意这样做),”伊拉克石油部长嘉班在维也纳对记者表示。

    周三,嘉班表示,他将支持至少将现有减产计划从明年3月延长至明年年底:“我们必须向市场发出积极信号,至少对我来说,我们应该把目前的协议延长。”

    阿曼石油部长Mohammed al-Rumhi周三表示,阿曼代表团将建议将减产延长至2020年底。

    沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹亲王抵达维也纳后拒绝就产油政策问题发表评论。

    加大减产力度和执行率

    沙特需要更高的油价来支撑该国预算收入,且国有石油公司沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)的首次公开发行(IPO)定价预计将于周四公布。

    OPEC的减产行动支撑油价在过去一年保持在约每桶50美元至75美元。周三,布兰特原油期货上涨约3%,接近每桶63美元。

    OPEC消息人士亦表示,沙特正在敦促伊拉克和尼日利亚等成员国改善其产量配额的执行率,这可能为石油减产幅度额外带来最多40万桶/日。总有效减产幅度将达到每日200万桶左右,占全球供应量的2%。

    “如果OPEC不能就进一步减产达成一致,那么前景将十分黯淡。”Rystad Energy称,并指出,若不进一步减产,市场将在2020年上半年面临每日80万桶的供过于求。

    不过,并非所有OPEC成员国都认为有必要进一步减产。一位OPEC代表说,此举将提振油价,并有助于刺激美国石油产量进一步增长。

    非OPEC成员国俄罗斯尚未同意延长减产协议,或将目前其减产规模22.8万桶/日进一步提高,因俄罗斯石油企业指出,它们发现很难在冬季削减产量,因气温非常低。

    俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)周二表示,莫斯科尚未敲定其立场:“让我们拭目以待……但我认为,这次会议和以往一样,将是具建设性的。”

    一位熟悉俄罗斯想法的消息人士对路透表示,莫斯科“极有可能”在本周与OPEC达成共识,只是需要解决几个悬而未决的问题。

    对俄罗斯来说,这一次的症结在于如何计算其产量-俄罗斯的产量数据中包括凝析油,而其它产油国没有。

  • ‘Once you pop, you can’t stop’: Fed QE is like Pringles, Ross Ashcroft tells RT’s Keiser Report

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been bailing out the repo market with multi-billion dollar programs every week, says the Keiser Report, which asks if it’s the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE).
    Max Keiser talks to award winning filmmaker, broadcaster, and strategist Ross Ashcroft, who says it’s not QE but more like QE infinity. “It’s like Pringles, once you pop, you can’t stop,” says Ashcroft.

    According to Ashcroft, who is the host of the weekly program Renegade, it is the classic liquidity trap. He says the money is stagnating while really bad ideas are being funded.
    “This is classic, the misallocation of capital, not only in the QE’s but right back to the crisis” when instead of letting banks go bust we have propped them up.“From that moment till now we were continually misallocating capital week in, week out. And the repo market is just the canary in the mine, and of course they can’t call it QE4 because the markets would trauma.”

    He says the systemic fraud is simply staggering. The asset stripping, political favors, and so on, that’s what is now considered to be ‘business as usual’ and “obviously it’s not going to end well.”

  • Did you lose this? NASA spots wreckage from India’s Vikram lunar lander

    A NASA satellite plucked a needle from a haystack, spotting debris from India’s ill-fated Vikram lunar lander, which crashed on the Moon’s surface in September after an unsuccessful touch-down attempt.
    NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) snapped images of the crash site and its associated debris field, which were published on Monday. Though hard to make out, the new photos show the craft’s impact crater and wreckage scattered across several kilometers of the lunar surface.
    While NASA’s high tech orbital probe deserves some credit for finding the lander, it was Indian computer programmer Shanmuga Subramanian who actually pointed out the crash site after the agency invited the public to join the search, publishing a mosaic image in late September for anyone to pore over.
    An animation released by NASA also shows a before and after comparison of the crash site, in which a faint streak of debris can be seen near the bottom third of the more recent photo.

    Vikram was launched last July as part of India’s Chandrayaan-2 Moon mission, with which New Delhi hoped to become the fourth nation after the US, Russia, and China to make a successful Moon landing. It would have been the first touch-down on the natural satellite’s south pole. The mission’s primary craft remains in orbit around the Moon, but it lost contact with the Vikram soon after it departed for its failed landing attempt.

  • ‘Dangerous’: UK’s six richest people have as much wealth as poorest 13m, study shows, prompting outrage online

    New research showing that the six richest people in the UK control as much wealth as the poorest 13 million has prompted anger online, with the authors of the study branding the massive gap in fortunes as “dangerous.”
    The study, conducted by the Equality Trust, reveals that the nation’s six billionaires who sit at the top of the wealth league have hoarded a combined fortune of £39.4 billion which is equal to the assets of around 13.2 million people in the UK.
    Dr Wanda Wyporska, the executive director of the Equality Trust claimed the report should “shock anyone who cares about the state of the UK,” and that such a huge gap between the very rich and the rest of the country is “dangerous.”

    The UK’s extreme inequality is the story of Ferraris and food banks.

    Some of those super rich include Indian brothers Gopichand and Srichand Hinduja who own a multitude of businesses including car firms and banks, and top the table with an estimated net worth of £12.8bn. Second on the list is Sir Jim Ratcliffe, the chairman and chief executive of the chemicals company Ineos, who has amassed £9.2bn.

    At the other end of the scale, the Equality Trust estimate that some 4m people in the UK live in poverty. Four million of these are said to be over 50 percent below the poverty line.

    The study has provoked impassioned responses on social media with many condemning the vast wealth inequality gap between a small collection of well-off families and the large number of the poorest in UK society.

    One person tweeted that “It’s disgusting… Enterprise and wealth shouldn’t leave such a wretched underclass. It shames us all.” While another suggested that individuals that hoard such “absurd wealth while millions struggle, starve and die in poverty,” should be treated as criminals.

  • The wolf that ate Wall Street: US economy roars amid rising income inequality

    As the US stock market continues to set records, and the economy creates millions of new jobs, many Americans are forced to settle for low-paying work and meager benefits. How long can the inequality continue?
    The sound of popping champagne bottles will soon echo across Manhattan this holiday season as corporate America is in decidedly high spirits. And for seemingly good reason. Wall Street has witnessed one of its most robust earning seasons on record, the employment picture is at its lowest rate in 50 years, while many corporations are swimming in cash. But, as so often happens in the shady world of business and markets, all is not as it would appear.

    Just below the shiny surface of Wall Street’s epic success story, however, an epic tragedy is unfolding as millions of workers are silently struggling paycheck to paycheck, doing what they can to make ends meet while raising a family. The numbers are sobering.

    According to data released by the Brookings Institute, 53 million Americans between the ages of 18 to 64 fall under the category of “low wage.” Their hourly pay comes out to around $10.22, while median annual earnings are $18,000. Most startling thing, however, is that this group of wage-earners accounts for a whopping 44 percent of the entire US workforce.
    In other words, it may be a bit too early to start popping the champagne corks just yet. And it gets worse. Many of these low wage workers are not the stereotypical teenagers flipping hamburgers at McDonald’s for some extra spending cash on the weekends. In fact, the majority of people who fall into this category are adults in their “prime working years,” and low paying work is the “primary way they support themselves and their families,” the report revealed.

    This was true for the majority of regions across the United States, as the study analyzed data from nearly 400 metropolitan areas. Other research supports the finding of the Brookings study.

    According to a new economic metric called the Job Quality Index, 63 percent of all jobs that were created since 1990 were low-salary jobs, many of them part-time. Today, the real US average wage, that is, the wage after calculating for inflation, has approximately the same purchasing power it did 40 years ago. And what gains were made inside of companies mostly went to the highest-paid executives.

    There are many reasons for this intense inequality, not least of all the collapse of labor unions, which once upon a time gave employees a real democratic voice inside of the workplace. Also to blame is the decades-long exodus of US corporations to foreign shores in their eternal quest for cheap labor and high profits.

    Briefly, it was this concern over the hemorrhaging of well-paid manufacturing jobs, many of them to China and Mexico, which largely propelled Donald Trump into the White House in 2016. The US leader has pledged to reverse course on globalization and bring back those high wages of yesteryear. Trump’s particular brand of populism, however, combines a volatile mixture of semi-isolationism and firebrand nationalism that aims to ‘Make America Great Again.’ Judging by the way the current trade war with China is developing, the mogul of Manhattan may only succeed at sinking the US economy, while dragging down the rest of the global economy with it.
    With regards to dwindling US paychecks for increasingly unattractive jobs, the danger here – aside from the very real risk of future social upheaval – is that if the number of ‘have-nots’ reaches a certain threshold of the population, then the overall health of the economy will begin to suffer accordingly. After all, workers are not just workers. They are also consumers, an integral part of any modern economy, and if their jobs start paying less they will naturally consume less, thereby appearing as a storm front on the overall economic climate.

    At the same time, it is important to note that it is not only the health of the economy that is at risk. Judging by recent data, a surplus of low-wage jobs appears to be having a direct impact on the health and wellbeing of the average American.

    According to a report released this month by the National Center for Health Statistics, life expectancy in the United States fell between 2016 and 2017, fueled by drug overdoses and suicides, continuing a downward trend for the last three years. Today, Americans can expect to live 78.6 years, a decline of three-tenths of a year since 2014.

    “We’re living in a developed country with a fairly sophisticated health care system and lots of resources… and now all of the sudden it seems to (have) reversed,” Robert Anderson, chief of the Mortality Statistics Branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, told US News and World Report.
    It would be very difficult to argue that there is no connection between the ongoing mental and physical health of people and the amount of money they are earning to support themselves and their families. That expensive burden seems at least partially to blame for the precipitation of drug abuse, domestic violence, and even suicide in the US.

    How to reverse the trend of decreasing low-wage labor in the United States is another question. Although Trump seems right in wanting to reinvigorate America’s manufacturing base, that is a massive project that will not occur overnight, if at all. In the meantime, one possible answer is an increase in the minimum wage, or higher taxes on US corporations in order to provide more assistance to those Americans now falling through the cracks of one of the most cutthroat capitalist societies ever created.

    If the majority of Americans continue to be treated as economic outcasts in their own country, it is difficult to see how the Wall Street traders and investors will continue to celebrate every holiday with heavy bonuses amid flowing champagne. There is a wolf on Wall Street, and it is called inequality. Wall Street needs to slay it if it wants the good times to continue.

  • ‘We’ve come full circle’: Twitter balks at $60 AirPod carrying straps that defeat original purpose of in-ears

    The Apple AirPods’ unique selling point is their wireless design, affording users unparalleled freedom. However, anxiety over losing the tiny in-ears prompted e-tailers Nordstrom and Amazon to sell ‘carrying straps’… facepalm.

    Ahead of the Christmas gift-buying extravaganza, Nordstrom and Amazon have begun selling $60 Carrying Straps for the $150 AirPods, thus undoing all of the “revolutionary” research and development by Apple in one fell, low-tech swoop. 

    “Avoid losing your wireless AirPods by attaching them to this magnetic-locking leather strap and wearing around the neck when not in use,” the product description reads. Needless to say, the late capitalism-weary online commentariat wasted no time in deriding this egregious display of opulence, pointing out that traditional, wired Apple headphones cost a fraction of the price, both in cash and anxiety.

  • グーグル 共同創業者2人がそろって退任へ

    アメリカの大手IT企業グーグルの持ち株会社は、共同創業者の2人がそろって退任し、グーグルのスンダー・ピチャイCEOが持ち株会社のトップを兼ねると発表しました。重要な経営判断をより迅速に行う体制を整えるねらいがあるとみられます。

    グーグルを傘下に置く持ち株会社の「アルファベット」は、3日、共同創業者であるラリー・ページCEOとセルゲイ・ブリン社長が退任し、グーグルのスンダー・ピチャイCEOが、アルファベットのCEOを兼ねるとするトップ人事を発表しました。

    共同創業者2人は一線を退きますが、今後も「アルファベット」の取締役をつとめ、ピチャイ氏への助言を続けるということです。

    ページ氏とブリン氏は、1998年にグーグルを設立すると、インターネットの検索サービスで業績を急速に拡大させました。その後、グーグルは、スマートフォンに使われている基本ソフト「アンドロイド」を開発したり、動画共有サイトの「ユーチューブ」を運営したりして、アメリカを代表する巨大IT企業となっています。

    ページ氏とブリン氏は連名で発表した声明のなかで、「経営体制を簡潔にする時が来た。会社のためになるのなら、経営者の座にいつまでもとどまるつもりはない」と説明していて、重要な経営判断をより迅速に行う体制を整えるねらいがあるとみられます。

    新たなトップにつくピチャイ氏はインド出身で、地元やアメリカの大学で学んだあと、4年前からグーグルのCEOを務めています。

  • 三菱UFJ銀行 キャッシュレス決済に参入へ

    競争が激しくなっているキャッシュレス決済の分野にメガバンクが参入します。三菱UFJ銀行は、グルメや旅行などの情報サイトを運営するリクルートと連携して、飲食店やホテルなどでスマホを使った決済サービスを始める方針を固めました。

    関係者によりますと、三菱UFJは、リクルートとの間でキャッシュレス決済サービスを手がける新会社を共同で設立することで合意しました。

    新会社は、利用者が銀行口座からスマートフォンのアプリにお金をチャージすれば、QRコードを使って支払いができるサービスを展開する方針です。

    利用者が多い「ホットペッパー」や「じゃらん」など、情報サイトに登録している飲食店やホテル・旅館にまずはサービスの導入を働きかけ、一気に普及させたい考えです。

    キャッシュレス決済は、政府が実施しているポイント還元制度もあって利用が一段と広がっていますが、参入企業が多く、競争が激しくなっています。

    今回参入する三菱UFJは後発になりますが、知名度の高い情報サイトのネットワークを使うことで、巻き返しを図る狙いがあります。

    一方、支払い履歴など、サービスを通じて得られるさまざまなデータの扱いについては厳しい管理が求められており、新会社は利用者から信頼される情報管理の体制を構築できるかが課題となりそうです。

  • 日本政府正在制定1200亿美元刺激方案

    日本政府正在制定1200亿美元刺激方案–消息人士(更新版)

    两位知情的政府官员周二透露,日本政府正在准备一项规模达1,200亿美元的经济刺激方案,以支撑脆弱的经济增长。这将使政府修复公共财政的努力变得复杂。

    这项支出将由本财政年度的追加预算以及下一财年的年度预算提供专项拨款。上述消息人士告诉路透,这两个预算都将于本月稍晚编制。由于刺激方案尚未最终确定,他们不愿具名。

    虽然刺激方案规模将在13万亿日圆(1,200亿美元)左右,但如果将民间部门和其他支出包括在内,总规模将增至25万亿日圆(2,300亿美元)。

    然而,这笔支出将加重日本的公共债务负担。日本公共债务规模已经超过其5万亿美元经济总量的两倍,在工业化国家中最为沉重。

    尽管整体刺激方案规模庞大,但当前财年的实际支出将比较小,分析师预计不会带来很大提振。

    “我们预计本财年的追加预算总计3-4万亿日圆。我们预计这不会大幅推升国内生产总值(GDP)增长率,”第一生命经济研究所资深分析师Takuya Hoshino称。

    这13万亿日圆中包括超过3万亿日圆的财政投资和贷款计划,负债累累的日本政府寻求利用日本央行负利率政策下的低借款成本优势。

    他们说,政府直接支出预计将达到7-8万亿日圆左右。

    上述大规模支出的融资来源还不清楚。刺激方案的最终版本可能最早于周四确定。

  • 众企业急组财团 争夺新加坡数字银行牌照–消息人士

    消息人士称,30多家公司正在商讨成立各自的财团,以符合竞标新加坡数字银行牌照的严格准入标准,其中包括叫车公司Grab、渣打银行(STAN.L)和新加坡电信(STEL.SI)。

    2019年5月10日,新加坡,新加坡中央商务区天际线。REUTERS/Kevin Lam
    这次新加坡银行业20年来最大的一次自由化行动,是为了打造能够以较低成本运营的纯网络银行,提供与星展集团(DBS Group)(DBSM.SI)及华侨银行(OCBC)(OCBC.SI)等老牌银行不同的服务。

    但是某些条件要比香港等其他市场更为严格,其中包括零售银行需要15亿坡元(11亿美元)的实缴资本,控制权需属于新加坡本地。这促使投标人必须联合起来,结合各自的银行专业知识、面向消费者的技术专长和雄厚的资本。

    消息人士称,许多公司正在埋头于最后一刻的谈判,以便赶在年底招标截止期限之前组成财团。这些消息人士未获授权向媒体讲话。

    “有许多的快速面谈正在进行中,”顾问公司安永的新兴市场金融科技业务主管Varun Mittal表示。

    新加坡金管局将发出最多两家零售银行、及三家批发银行的执照。零售银行业者可以从零售及非零售客户吸收存款,并提供这些客户服务,但是这些银行必须是由一家新加坡的公司主导。批发银行业务则大多服务中小企业。

    “时至今日,中小企业还是难取得运营资本融资,因为信用评估及提列担保品的作法多只适用于规模较大的企业,在中小企业行不通,”金融科技业者MatchMove执行长Shailesh Naik表示,MatchMove目前正研拟加入一个财团。

    Grab集团、新加坡电信和渣打都证实有兴趣取得执照,但不愿说明细节。

    阿里巴巴集团(BABA.N)旗下子公司蚂蚁金服与新加坡电子游戏企业Razer (1337.HK)也在考虑申请牌照的企业之列。

    消息人士称,保险商中国平安(601318.SS)、一个包含新加坡大亨沈财福旗下控股公司V3的银团、以及另一家保险企业Great Eastern (GELA.SI)等公司也有兴趣。上述企业未予置评。

    埃森哲(Accenture)东盟金融服务业务负责人Divyesh Vithlani表示,一些申请人组团向中小企业提供会计、人事、保险以及银行服务。

    地区野心

    一些竞争者希望,他们广泛的客户数据加之新科技和敏捷的运营,将助其在新加坡银行市场赢得客户。新加坡有超过150家存款机构,管理资产总额约有2万亿美元。

    对于地区市场具有企图心的业者如Grab及蚂蚁金服而言,若能在东南亚市场拥抱数字银行时代之际取得新加坡牌照,则可望成为踏入这块更大市场的垫脚石。

    “需要考虑的剧本不只是在本地市场经营,同时也要考虑到跨境业务这块更大的蛋糕,”德勤亚太策略实务主管Mohit Mehrotra表示。

    在新加坡之前,香港等地已采取行动。香港发出了八张纯网银牌照,其中有四张发给了财团。

    新加坡将在2020年年中宣布取得牌照的业者,数字银行预料将自2021年中起分阶段开始运营。