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The first of Hong Kong’s new generation of digital banks has announced its arrival with a 6 per cent introductory rate for deposits.
ZA Bank Ltd, a unit of ZhongAn Technologies International Group, has begun a trial run that pays a select group of depositors over 3 percentage points more than banks such as HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered. Though many doubt the new banks well be able to maintain such rates, the offer is a warning of upcoming competition for the city’s US$410 billion worth of local currency time-deposit business.
“This is more of a gimmick, which shouldn’t become a norm,” said Terry Siu, treasurer at CMB Wing Lung Bank Ltd., which pays 3.8 per cent to new savers for two-month Hong Kong dollar deposits. “But competition for funds is indeed getting higher as eight more banks are coming out.”
ZA began a pilot last month for the city’s first digital-only bank. It’s offering the 6 per cent rate for three-month Hong Kong dollar deposits capped at HK$200,000 (US$25,000), according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The accounts are set at a 2 per cent rate, but offer a top up of as much as 4 per cent to select clients, the person said. Standard Chartered, HSBC and BOC Hong Kong Holdings pay 1.9 per cent to 2.3 per cent for the same maturity.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority handed licenses to groups including ZhongAn, Ant Financial and Tencent Holdings to operate virtual banks last year. The launch is now approaching at a time when tensions stoked by pro-democracy protests show few signs of abating.

Central banks around the world will continue printing money as long as it’s necessary, says legendary investor Jim Rogers, calling it “madness.”

He talks about the state of the global economy and what could be over the horizon. Never before in world history have interest rates been so low, Rogers says. The US’ central bank, the Fed, increased its balance sheet by over 500 percent in less than a decade. Japan’s central bank prints money and buys ETFs and bonds.

“These are astonishing statements and facts… this is insanity, that’s not how sound economic systems are supposed to work.” According to the trader, in 2008 we had problems because of too much debt.

However, “since then the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and it’s going higher and higher. We are going to have a horrible time when this all comes to an end.”

“Eventually, the market is going to say: ‘We don’t want this, we don’t want to play this game anymore, and we don’t want your garbage paper anymore’,” Rodgers explained.

When that happens then central banks will print even more and buy even more assets.“And that’s when we will have very serious problems… We all are going to pay a horrible price someday but in the meantime it’s a lot of fun for a lot of people.”

中国外汇交易中心周四公布的数据显示，2019年境外机构投资者买入债券3.2万亿元人民币，卖出债券2.1万亿元，净买入1.1万亿元；共达成现券交易5.3万亿元，交易量同比增长66%，占同期现券市场总成交量的2.6%。

The imminent commencement of virtual banks in Hong Kong and Singapore have created more than 1,000 job opportunities for a new generation of bankers, requiring them to be innovative and tech savvy, according to recruitment experts.
Competition for talent has sharpened since last year as both cities stepped up their race to spruce up their financial technology (fintech) and online banking offerings, said Jerry Chang, managing director of recruiting firm Barons & Company.
The race for talent is heating up, as eight banking licenses awarded by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) must commence operations in the coming months, each requiring over 100 staff to kick off. In Singapore, 21 technology companies from the ride-hailing service Grab to online payments provider Ant Financial Services have applied bids for five digital bank licenses.
Hong Kong and Singapore are the world’s two most overbanked urban centres, with more bank branches and automated teller machines (ATMS) per 100,000 people than anywhere else in the world. The entry of new virtual banks, which aren’t allowed to operate bricks-and-mortar branches under licensing rules, would force the entire banking industry to innovate and improve services, executives said. New banks will also create new job opportunities, albeit with requirements for 21st-century fintech, instead of relationship banking in pin-striped suits.

2019年全球新车销量连续2年下滑。这是自受到雷曼危机影响的2008~2009年以来再次出现连续2年下滑，2019年似乎比上年减少4％左右。此前因新兴市场国家需求扩大而迅速膨胀的世界市场出现缩小，汽车厂商的裁员和重组有可能加速。

在发生雷曼危机时，新车需求以日美欧为中心出现锐减，世界市场在2008年和2009年分别减少逾4％。当时新兴市场国家销量增长，弥补了发达国家的下滑。此次世界最大市场中国和居第4位的印度经济减速引发销售下滑，日美欧也萎靡不振。目前处于找不到支撑世界需求的市场的局面。

截至1月4日出炉的主要市场中国、美国、欧洲、日本、印度、巴西、韩国、俄罗斯以及东南亚6国的2019年1~11月销量（含商用车）合计为7260万辆，同比减少4％。这些市场占到全球的8成以上，2019年全年全球整体销量似乎在逾9100万辆。

国际汽车制造商协会（OICA）的统计显示，2018年比上年减少0.6％。连续2年减少的2019年的降幅有可能超过雷曼危机之时。2019年的市场规模比2009年扩大约4成。

连降2年的最主要原因是占全球约3成的中国市场的低迷。贸易战长期化等原因导致经济减速，实际工资下降和维持就业的担忧加强。有分析认为，在内陆地区等，年收入约为人民币6.4~12.8万元的消费者对购车变得慎重。

中国市场2019年1~11月同比减少9％，全年似乎减少8~9％。争取客户的竞争激化，低价位的中国品牌的销量锐减，通用汽车等美国企业也陷入苦战。

美国福特等在华销量低迷（广州）

从印度来看，金融机构的信用风险等导致的经济减速的影响突出。2019年1~11月销量同比减少14％，降至351万辆，全年似乎时隔5年减少。韩国、东南亚和俄罗斯据分析也低于上年。

居世界第2位的美国销量预计为1700万辆左右，时隔2年低于上年。

2020年前景严峻

此前属于增长火车头的新兴市场国家踩下刹车，日美欧也销量低迷。关于2020年的前景，悲观预期突出，各车企正被迫采取裁员等对策。

据分析日本市场2019年全年比上年减少1％左右，降至约520万辆。10月的台风导致专卖店顾客减少，似乎也产生了影响。

欧洲新车销量（乘用车）与时隔5年低于上年的2018年基本持平。欧盟加上瑞士等在内的31国的2019年1~11月累计销量减少0.3％。德国大众首席财务官（CFO）弗兰克·威特（Frank Witter）指出，“最好的时代已经过去”。

在主要国家中保持强劲的是巴西，2019年全年被认为连续3年超过上年。

2020年预期也不容乐观。关于经济持续减速的中国，业界团体预期称将比2019年减少2％。德国汽车工业协会预测称欧洲乘用车市场将减少2％，降至1530万辆，还发布预测称，全球整体将减少1％，降至7890万辆，连续3年下滑。

全球大型车企已开始采取对策。“此前设想销售额进一步增长，但出现了误判”，德国戴姆勒总裁康林松（Ola Kaellenius）针对截至2022年底在全球裁员1万人以上的理由解释称。德国奥迪也将在2025年之前裁减约1成员工，还将削减德国2家工厂的产能。

通用汽车将关闭全球7家工厂，裁员1.4万人，美国福特汽车也宣布裁员1.2万人。日产汽车计划在生产部门裁员1.25万人。法国标致雪铁龙集团和欧美菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车公司（FCA）2019年底就合并达成协议，行业的重组也将取得进展。

美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)决策者去年还经常在利率设定方面看法分歧，但2020年开局他们展现对经济状况的信心，暗示他们普遍认为货币政策正处于正确位置。

在新年首次演说中，好几位地区联储总裁都指出，就业市场强劲、消费者支出有力，而且贸易紧张局势获得解决的乐观情绪升温。贸易紧张局势在2019年下半年曾阻碍经济增长。

美联储2019年降息三次，将联邦基金利率目标下调至1.5%-1.75%，以确保全球经济不利因素不会阻碍美国经济历史上持续时间最长的复苏。“我觉得我们大多数人都认为现在(政策)很精准了，”克利夫兰联邦储备银行总裁梅斯特(Loretta Mester)在圣地亚哥一个经济会议间隙接受采访时说。

基于美联储利率设定委员会中其他同僚的预测，她表示：“委员会认为(利率)保持不变…是合适的。”

梅斯特去年曾是认为美国经济不需较低利率就能继续增长的少数几位美联储政策制定官员之一。

尽管她和其他官员指出，如果类似本周美国与伊朗间紧张关系急遽升高之类的外部冲击令美国经济脱离目前轨道，前景可能会改变，但多数人似乎对维持利率在当前水平感到满意。

“经济依然健康。”里奇蒙联储总裁巴尔金(Thomas Barkin)周五稍早在巴尔的摩表示。和梅斯特一样，巴尔金曾对去年的降息感到质疑。“最近的就业报告和假日支出步伐令我倍感鼓舞，”巴尔金并称，去年美联储三次降息帮助提振了对房屋、汽车和其他大宗消费品的需求。

芝加哥联储总裁埃文斯也有相同的看法，但和巴尔金及梅斯特不同的是，埃文斯支持去年的降息。他在CNBC访问中预测，今年美国经济将以2%-2.25%的速度增长，大约和去年下半年的扩张速度相仿。

周五的一系列评论显示，美联储多数政策制定者对于2019年降息将证明足以缓冲诸多风险感到欣慰。全球增长放缓和贸易紧张形势升高等风险，促使他们出台了刺激措施。

美联储2019年经历艰难一年，几乎每次降息都有意见分歧，不过决策者们在2019年最后一次政策会议上一致同意维持利率不变。此外周五公布的12月10-11日会议记录显示，决策者们同意，只要经济保持在正轨，利率可能会持稳“一段时间”。

“与会者认为，维持联邦基金利率的目标范围是适当的，”会议记录显示。

仍有一些分歧在酝酿

即便他们对利率及经济前景达成了新的共识，但仍有一些紧张的迹象，随着新一年的展开，可能会让决策者们陷入分歧。

通胀一直低于美联储2%的目标，这让旧金山联邦储备银行总裁戴利(Mary Daly)等一些决策者感到担忧。

“我们正见到一些初步迹象显示长期通胀预期正在下滑，”戴利在美国经济协会的年会上表示。“我们对于通胀何以如此难以回升不甚了解”。

达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁柯普朗(Robert Steven Kaplan)则淡化了低通胀的风险，指称这仅比美联储的目标低了零点几个百分点。同时，他指出，他担心低利率可能会助长金融体系中的过度行为。

梅斯特在接受采访时也持类似立场。“我认为目前没有任何事情向我显示通胀过高，”她表示。“我也不认为通胀过低。”

1989年12月29日，日经平均指数达到创历史最高纪录的3万8915点。30年后的现在，日本的股价只相当于当时的6成。在载入史册的美国大萧条时，美股用了25年恢复至1929年高峰期的水平，日本股市的低迷在主要国家中创下历史最长纪录。个人投资者今后该如何看待日本股市呢？

“（股价）达到无法用利率水平等解释的高位。这难道不是泡沫吗？”1980年代末，东京大学的副教授植田和男（现任共立女子大学教授）通过论文等对日本股市发出这样的警告。股价除以每股收益得出的市盈率（PER）方面，国际标准为14～16倍，而日本当时大幅超过60倍。

在担忧声中，日本股价在1990年后开始暴跌。在日元升值和通货紧缩背景下日本经济增长放缓、企业的业务改革迟缓——日本股价的长期低迷由这些复杂的原因共同作用导致。但日生基础研究所的井出真吾认为“主要原因是修正过高股价花费了较长时间”。

以国际标准进行判断的外国人持有比例偏高，到2000年中期股价偏高的状况一直未能得到修正。当前日本股市成为如实反映利润波动、股价也正常波动的普通资本市场。当前的市盈率为14倍多，与欧洲相仿，低于美国的18倍多。小额投资免税制度（NISA）以及“确定拠出年金”（类似企业或个人集资型养老金）等税制优惠机制也迅速扩充。这些可以认为是“来自失去的30年来的礼物”。

但是大多数日本人至今仍未从股价长期下跌的记忆中走出。即使在安倍经济学的上涨行情下，个人投资者也在抛售股票，初期购买日本股票的外国人受益良多。如果个人投资者认为“炒股赔钱”而远离股市，企业产生的财富将无法流向个人。

法人企业统计数据显示，从2000年度到2018年度，日本企业（不包括金融企业）的净利润达到7.4倍。在此期间，人工费的增长率仅为3%，而分红却增至5.4倍。附加值的分配从员工转向股东。法国经济学家托马斯·皮凯蒂指出，相比经济增长率，股票等投资所得的利润更大。为了充分获取企业的增长果实，现在正是成为股东继续获得分红的时候。

在1990年代即使获得了分红也因为股价下跌而化为泡影。“但现在股价上涨和厚度增加的分红值得期待”（日本证券业协会会长铃木茂晴）。

不过，今后仍会出现危机。股价下跌时的重要判断依据是显示每股股价为每股净资产几倍的市净率（PBR）。与使用利润的指标相比，这一指标具有不易波动的优点。

下图列出了2000～2009年各周末的市净率（按日经平均股价指数计算），并将当时的日经平均股价10年后的走势转化成数值进行了比较。从该图可以看出，市净率为3倍左右时，日经平均股价指数在10年后下降了5成左右，市净率为1倍左右时，日经平均指数上涨了2倍多。

雷曼危机后，市净率曾一度下跌到0.83倍，今后发生危机时，与目前的1.17倍市净率相比，股价有3成左右的下跌空间。但是，越是下跌时，随后的股价就上涨得越厉害。该图表明，即便在出现危机时，只要继续通过累积等方式进行投资，也能获得长期投资回报。

泡沫经济时期，日本股市的总市值在全球股市中占比接近4成，而目前却不到1成。虽然存在感降低，但是作为全球股市中的一分子，日本股市已经成为一个与投资价值相匹配的市场，这是日本在30年里取得的一大成果。

中国银行保险监督管理委员会周五晚间发布修订《中国银保监会外资银行行政许可事项实施办法》，进一步推动银行业更高水平对外开放；银保监会将坚持对外开放与审慎监管并重，在有效防范金融风险的同时，促进银行业健康平稳发展。

银保监会新闻稿称，修订后的《办法》与《外资银行管理条例》衔接，允许外国银行在中国境内同时设立分行和外资法人银行、取消外国银行来华设立营业性机构需满足的总资产要求、放宽中外合资银行中方主要股东选择范围。

另外，《办法》将外资银行部分董事、高管人员任职资格核准和分行开业审批权限进一步下放或调整；取消管理型支行行长任职资格核准审批；缩短两级审批事项的审批时限；简化外资银行赴境外发债的部分申请材料要求。

除此之外，按照中外一致原则，《办法》在相关许可章节中，相应增加了股权管理及反洗钱和反恐怖融资审查的要求，进一步强化了审慎监管，并对股东变更的内涵进行修订。同时办法亦为自贸区等特定区域实施进一步简政放权措施预留政策空间。

2019年11月8日至12月8日，中国银保监会就《办法》（征求意见稿）向社会公开征求意见，对社会各界的反馈意见进行了认真研究，充分吸收各项科学合理的建议。

• Four out of the 10 best-performing stocks on the CSI 300 in 2019 were tech companies
• Tech stocks already outperforming consumer companies, last year’s best performers

Traders are betting that a strong momentum in Chinese technology stocks – the most expensive sector following a buying spree last year – will continue into 2020.
Companies ranging from semiconductor manufacturers to electronics makers will continue to be supported by a government push for self-reliance, as well as a boom prompted by the transition to fifth-generation wireless networks, according to investors such as Xufunds Investment Management and Jingxi Investment Management. A gauge of mainland China-traded technology companies was trading at 4.9 times book values on average after a 60 per cent gain last year, making it the priciest among 10 industry groups of the CSI 300 Index, according to Bloomberg.
Out of the 10 best-performing stocks on the CSI 300 in 2019, four were technology companies.
Will Semiconductor, a supplier of integrated circuit products for telecommunications and electronics for cars, surged 390 per cent last year, taking the No. 1 spot. Luxshare Precision Industry and GoerTek, suppliers of consumer electronics products to giants such as Apple, and GigaDevice Semiconductor, which makes flash chips, jumped by at least 193 per cent.
“I am still optimistic about the sector, which is supposed to have further room for upside to run,” said Wang Chen, a Shanghai-based partner at Xufunds Investment. “Demand isn’t a problem, as the Chinese government is pushing ahead with the move to replace imported hi-tech products with home-made ones, and 5G construction is really in full swing. So these factors are really benefiting the sector, and valuations are not going to contract. The best growth stocks will still come from the technology sector this year.”

A number of recent reports suggest that the financial risk from climate change could be much greater than previously anticipated, and that entire asset classes could come under fire as temperatures continue to rise.
Trillions of dollars of market value could go up in smoke due to climate change.

The damage hits the global economy in multiple ways. The first is the most obvious. Physical damage from more powerful natural disasters is on the rise. 2017 and 2018 were the costliest back-to-back years for economic losses related to natural disasters, according to risk and reinsurance firm Aon.

But the danger grows worse when the physical damage starts to reprice portions of entire asset classes. One glaring example is the real estate market along coastlines, which will see both physical damage and a dramatic repricing as the threat becomes increasingly clear. That happens through a variety of mechanisms – people move away, zoning ordinances restrict building, insurance companies withdraw support, investors withdraw capital, etc.

If sea levels rise by 6 feet by 2100, an estimated $900 billion in US homes “would be literally – and in turn financially – underwater,” the Center for American Progress (CAP) wrote in a November report.

The end result is the sector becomes worth a fraction of what it once was. And this is just one aspect of climate change affecting just one particular sector.

This gets to another aspect of climate risk. Governments are surely going to act – eventually – to address climate change, which could transform what is and isn’t valuable. A new report from Principles for Responsible Investment finds that the inevitable tightening of climate policies will wipe out $2.3 trillion in value from a range of fossil fuel companies. Principles of Responsible Investing (PRI) is a group representing investors with $86 trillion of assets under management.

Industry groups always point out that as long as there is demand, they will continue to meet that demand. However, as the impacts of climate change grow worse, the likelihood of a policy backlash grows in corresponding fashion. The world is now on track to warm by 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, double the rate that scientists and governments are aiming for.

“It’s highly improbable that governments will be allowed to let the world glide to 2.7C without being compelled into forceful action sooner,” Fiona Reynolds, CEO of PRI wrote last month. PRI sees an “inevitable policy response” by 2025, and because the industry has dragged its feet and because governments have delayed action, the policy response will likely be “forceful, abrupt and disorderly.” The energy transition could have been much smoother had action been taken years ago.

PRI says that the fossil fuel sector could lose a third of its current value as high-cost coal, oil and gas reserves become stranded assets. According to historian Adam Tooze, there is between $1 and $4 trillion in energy assets that could become stranded, and $20 trillion in the broader industrial sector.

But an even larger concern is how the long list of impacts affecting a variety of industries that are all interwoven infects the broader financial system. “Stress at a large, complex, and interconnected financial institution—a firm that is systemically important—or correlated stress across smaller firms all exposed to the same risks could transmit stress throughout the financial system,” CAP wrote.