分类： 未分类

Abstract
In 2008, U.S. demand collapsed and triggered deflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) employed large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) to fight deflation. How did news of LSAP affect inflationary expectations? If investors believed that LSAP would raise inflation, they would sell assets exposed to inflation and purchase inflation hedges. This would lower the prices of assets that are exposed to inflation and raise the prices of assets that benefit from inflation. Examining the relationship between asset price changes and inflation sensitivities can thus shed light on how financial markets process LSAP news. The results indicate that initially LSAP announcements lowered expected inflation. Only as inflation approached its target did news of LSAP raise expected inflation.

Creation Date/NO. July 2017 17-E-097
Research Project East Asian Production Networks, Trade, Exchange Rates, and Global Imbalances

Abstract
In Japan, uncertainty over the social security and tax system is termed as a source of stagnant household consumption at the aggregate level. This study presents empirical evidence on this issue by using original survey data of 10,000 individuals. The results indicate that individuals are highly uncertain over the future course of social security policies, and the impacts of such uncertainty on their life are perceived to be large. The policy uncertainty induces increased saving driven by a precautionary motive, and the effect is prominent for low-income individuals. These results suggest that improving long-term predictability in the social security and tax system may contribute toward stimulating household consumption.

Creation Date/NO. May 2017 17-E-075

This is the English version of the Japanese Discussion Paper (17-J-007) with some additional information and changes.

Published: Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. “Policy uncertainty and saving attitude: Evidence from a survey on consumers,” Journal of Consumer Affairs, Vol. 53(3), pp. 1297-1311

Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the effect of banks’ soft information on small business innovations. Using data from a sample of Japanese small and medium enterprises (SMEs), we find that multiple banking prevails. Moreover, besides the main bank, the sub bank also acquires soft information for a number of multiple banking firms. Nonetheless, there coexists no bank information: the main bank’s information monopoly and multiple bank information competition. Importantly, such information competition in multiple banking is positively related to both product and process innovation while the main bank’s information monopoly has no significant effects on innovation. Also, we offer additional consistent evidence that information competition decreases the likelihood of worsening of the lending attitude of the main bank during the financial crisis. For single banking firms, bank information monopolies have a negative effect on product and process innovation.

Author Name XU Peng (Hosei University)
Creation Date/NO. April 2017 17-E-062
Research Project Study on Corporate Finance and Firm Dynamics

Abstract
Utilizing the regulatory change relating to banks’ shareholding in Japan as an instrument, this study examines the causal effects of declining shareholding by banks on bank lending and firms’ risk taking. Banks may hold equity claims over client firms for either of the following two reasons: (i) gaining a competitive advantage by exploiting complementarity between shareholding and lending activities, and (ii) mitigating shareholder-creditor conflict. Exogenous reduction in a bank’s shareholding would then impair the competitiveness of the bank’s lending activities and aggravate the risk-shifting behavior of client firms. Using a firm-bank matched dataset of Japan’s listed firms during the period 2001-2006, we empirically tested several hypotheses and obtain the following findings. First, a bank’s removal from the list of major shareholders of a client firm (extensive margin) and the reduction in the ratio of the bank’s shareholding to the firm’s total shares on issue (intensive margin) decreases the bank’s share of the firm’s loans. Second, a reduction in the extensive margin of a bank’s shareholding increases the volatility of the client firm’s return on assets and reduces its Sharpe ratio. However, we do not find the same effect when a bank reduces the intensive margin of its shareholding.
Creation Date/NO. May 2017 17-E-079

Abstract
This paper examines the portfolio diversification effect of commodity futures on financial market products introducing a comprehensive evaluation standard of risk standardization, robustly small correlations, and risk-return tradeoffs. Regarding risk standardization, we propose a definition of portfolio diversification as how much the distribution of portfolio returns is close to a normal distribution. It is shown by using α-stable distribution that if the commodity price return distribution has the opposite sign of skewness parameter β to financial portfolio’s β, commodity diversification effect exists. The empirical studies using S&P500, U.S. 10-year bond and DJ-AIG commodity index are conducted to investigate the portfolio diversification effects. The parameter estimation results of portfolio return distributions, the conditional correlations using the dynamic conditional correlation model with financial exogenous variables, and the efficient frontier from the mean-CVaR portfolio optimization all suggest that commodity futures have a diversification effect on financial markets.