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美联储还有其他一系列紧急贷款安排，以及2007-2009年金融危机期间使用的其他工具，如果需要，美联储可以动用这些工具来避免信贷市场在危机期间冻结。

“这些事件背后的故事是，美联储总是会在需要时提供流动性，”布鲁金斯学会高级经济研究员、前美联储金融稳定政策和研究室主任梁奈利(Nellie Liang)表示。

美联储可以在现有授权下自行采取一些措施，而其他措施可能需要与财政部合作或国会扩大对其的授权。

以下是一些工具，如果信贷状况明显恶化，这些工具可以进行调整或重新启用以支持市场：

贴现窗口

美联储的最后借贷工具很少被使用，因为银行担心从窗口借贷会使他们显得虚弱。但梁奈利表示，决策者可以开始提醒银行，“贴现窗口已经打开，请使用它”。美联储官员还可以下调利率或将贷款期限从一天延长至30天或90天，来提高信贷吸引力。

定期标售工具(TAF)

美联储在2007年推出定期标售工具(TAF)，向那些犹犹豫豫不愿转向贴现窗口的银行提供贷款。受贷款发放方式影响，TAF少了贴现窗口相关的一些劣势。金融企业必须进行竞标，这意味着他们支付的利率将被视为由市场决定，而不是一种罚款率。

而且相关资金三天后才发放，说明以这种方式借款的银行并不急需现金。

“这说明你还没有绝望，”梁奈利说。美联储在2010年3月结束TAF。

商业票据融资便利(CPFF)

在金融危机时期，美联储最接近向非金融企业直接提供借贷的方式就是建立CPFF。

商业票据市场是诸多企业短期融资的主要来源。在2008年市场冻结时，美联储建立了CPFF，藉由购买期限三个月的高评级、有资产支持的商业票据以帮助重新开启资金市场。此一融资便利在2010年关闭。

部分指标显示融资市场可能已经出现压力。最高评级非金融借款人与低一级借款人之间的利差本月明显变阔，目前处于近两年来最阔程度。

要判断当前的压力是否会增加到让美联储依据《联邦储备法》“不寻常与紧急情况”条款重新开启这类融资便利的程度，目前还言之过早。这项法律允许美联储借款给企业与个人。

央行流动性互换

美联储与其他五家主要央行(加拿大央行、欧洲央行、英国央行、日本央行和瑞士央行)签有常备协议，因此这些央行能够在资金吃紧时向各自金融机构提供美元。这些协议在2011年从临时安排转为常备安排。

美联储可能与这五大央行之外的其他央行达成协议，在必要时增加美元供应。

还有其他工具吗？

牛津经济研究院的首席美国金融分析师Kathy Bostjancic说，美联储还可创设更适合当前市况的新工具。“美联储的许多工具是针对当时困扰金融体系的具体问题而设立的，”Bostjancic说。

“这表明美联储可以创新。”

The Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) today announced that it will reduce interest rates by 0.5 percent, effective April 1.

According to the directive, the minimum bank deposit rate will be lowered to 7.5pc from 8pc, while the maximum lending rate will be lowered to 12.5pc for collateralised loans and 15.5pc for non-collateralised loans, from 13pc and 16pc, respectively.

The move comes shortly after the World Health Organization defined the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic on March 12, triggering a collapse in global markets.

Central banks around the world have also eased rates to stimulate their economies. On March 11, the Bank of England announced an emergency rate cut by half a percentage point to 0.25pc.

The week before, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by half a percentage point to a range between 1pc to 1.25pc, its deepest cut since 2008.

In Myanmar, the tourism, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors have been hardest hit as a result of the pandemic.

There have been no reported cases of COVID-19 in the country so far, but U Zaw Oo, an economist from the Centre of Economic and Social Development, warned that a weaker Chinese economy could slow foreign direct investments into Myanmar and delay China’s spending on key projects under its Belt and Road Initiative. These include the Muse cross border trade zone, China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and New Yangon City.

U Than Lwin senior consultant from Kanbawza Bank, said: “This is the right time to decrease the bank interest rate and drive the economy. The process of easing interest rates is very quick overseas and central banks are quick to respond to the needs of their economies. We need to reduce the bank’s interest rates in order to revitalise businesses in Myanmar.”

The CBM has long been under pressure to cut rates to more attractive levels to stimulate growth, but its officials have been hesitant to do so to keep the minimum deposit rate at a higher level than inflation, as this encourages savings.

According to the CBM, the annual rate of inflation is now 8.8pc.

“冠状病毒这一黑天鹅的登场，仅仅是让市场注意到了影响更为严重的灰犀牛存在的契机”

如今市场警惕的“灰犀牛”有3头。

第1头是经济衰退的风险。回顾过去，2019年夏季出现了被视为经济衰退前兆的美国长短期利率倒挂，但市场的动揺仅仅是暂时的。股价不久就开始反弹，美国股市直到新冠病毒冲击加强之前，连日创出历史新高。

但是，如果考虑到经济衰退的美国债券市场的预期是可靠的、股价犯了错，那么被推高至历史性高位的美国股市的调整就将难以避免。由于此次股价下跌，此前上升至约18倍的美国股市的PER（市盈率）被拉低。

第2头灰犀牛是央行的货币宽松政策的极限。

3月3日，美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）不等17～18日的美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，就启动了0.5％的紧急降息。

但市场认为降息难以阻止冠状病毒导致的需求和供给的下滑，以股价下跌作出回应。结果，美联储一下子陷入窘境。美国摩根士丹利预测月内降息0.5％，4月进一步降息0.25％。届时，在发达国家中几乎唯一超过1％的美国基准利率也将降至零附近，只要不采取负利率政策，美联储的降息余地将消失。

第3头灰犀牛则是超低利率多年来造成的企业和国家债务泡沫破裂这一风险。

市场已认识到这种风险的存在，但认为只要央行维持宽松政策，企业的债务偿还就不会出问题。但是，9日的原油价格暴跌令市场认识到这种认识的天真。

油价走低将波及企业的债务问题，原因是美国页岩相关领域等评级较低的美国能源企业此前发行低评级债，导致债务膨胀。受9日的原油价格暴跌影响，在美国公司债市场，低评级债的收益率迅速上升。鉴于此，美国股市的跌幅也随之扩大。

不过，SMBC日兴证券的首席日本股票策略分析师圷正嗣表示，与2008年的雷曼危机时相比，“虽然美国的低评级债的收益率上升，但水平本身至今仍受到压制”。

此外，2008年金融机构大量买入美国次贷的证券化商品和低评级公司债，其价格下跌直接导致了金融动荡。

但是，此次出于对雷曼危机之际的反思，金融当局加强监管和监视，金融机构几乎并未涉足这种高风险的贷款。就算信用市场多少出现混乱，也不易导致金融动荡。圷正嗣认为“现在正在发生的新冠冲击仅停留在波及金融动荡的紧要关头”，这显而易见。

此前市场视而不见的3头“灰犀牛”分别将在多大程度上发狂，现阶段仍难以预料。在能看透之际，股价或许也将构筑大底。

The Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak will add $100 billion in credit losses to banks in the Asia-Pacific region this year with Chinese lenders bearing the brunt of the damage, according to S&P Global Inc.

“Some activity will be lost forever, ” Shaun Roache, S&P’s Asia-Pacific chief economist, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “We estimate an income loss of about $211 billion, which will blow a hole in balance sheets across the region.”

The ability of Asian lenders to weather the coronavirus outbreak, which now has claimed more than 3,900 lives worldwide, has larger implications for the global financial system. Asia accounts for a bigger share of pretax banking profits than any other region, according to a report from McKinsey & Co.

The Covid-19 crisis will likely exert sharp, short-term pressure on Chinese banks and almost a quarter of the ratings and outlooks on the Chinese property sector may come under pressure, S&P said in the report.

“China’s regulatory response so far has been to use the banking system to cushion the economic impact of the epidemic, and provide financing to entities crucial to medical support and containment of the virus, ” S&P credit analyst Harry Hu said. “Banks may need to sacrifice near-term commercial interests, straining institutions already facing capital pressure.”

While Beijing has asked banks to step up with support, it has also acted to mitigate the chaos. Authorities are now allowing the nation’s lenders to delay recognizing bad loans from smaller businesses, giving temporary reprieve to trillions of yuan of debt. Regulators also told lenders not to downgrade loans with missed payments or report delinquencies to the country’s centralized credit-scoring system before the end of June, according to the statement.

S&P said given the relaxed recognition of bad loans, reported non-performing loan ratios for China’s banks could “moderately” rise to 2.2% this year, up from 1.86% at the end of 2019. The questionable loan ratio could peak at as much as 11.9% in the aftermath of the epidemic, S&P said.

Property transactions in China may remain on hiatus for the coming weeks and construction is also largely paused. Leverage and profitability may deteriorate in the next one to two years, denting credit profiles in the sector, S&P said.

Foreign banks are also feeling the heat. HSBC Holdings Plc, which generated half its 2019 revenue in Asia, said in the most extreme scenario, in which the virus continues into the second half of 2020, it could see $600 million in additional loan losses.

Fitch Ratings said on Monday that operating environment remains difficult for India’s banks in line with its negative outlook for the sector despite some indications of an improvement in the macroeconomic outlook.

Senior Director Duncan Innes Ker said Fitch expects India’s economic growth to accelerate to 5.6 per cent in the financial year ending March 2021 (FY21) from 4.6 per cent in FY20.

“But asset quality at the banks is likely to remain under pressure for some time. This in part reflects exposure — both direct and indirect — to stresses among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs),” he said.

“We believe that the NBFI sector has yet to turn a corner even though fund-raising by a number of NBFIs during the first two months of 2020 points to a slightly improved funding environment,” said Ker in a statement.

The authorities have sought to provide support through regulatory forbearance. The Reserve Bank of India announced on February 6 an extension of the one-time restructuring scheme for micro-enterprises and SMEs, and relaxation in asset classifications for certain real estate projects.

However, there is a risk that this approach could perpetuate moral hazard and weaken transparency over asset quality.

The government has allocated 10 billion dollars for capital injection into banks in FY20 but this will go mainly towards bridging regulatory capital gaps, providing for ageing impaired loans and absorbing the costs of merging 10 state banks into four by April.

“Indian banks may require significant additional equity beyond this by FY21 to support loan growth, cover non-performing loans and build buffers over Basel III minimum standards,” said Ker.

Raising this may be challenging, given banks’ limited ability to issue fresh capital which puts the onus on government to address shortfalls.

“Although we anticipate that macroeconomic conditions will improve in FY21, any setbacks for the economy could increase asset-quality strains among Indian banks, particularly if they cause pressures in the NBFI sector to escalate into a broader crisis,” said Ker.

India so far appears relatively insulated from the economic fallout from the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak, but the virus has highlighted potential downside risks to our economic outlook, he said.

标普全球评级周二表示，预计新冠疫情将导致亚太区银行业增加1,000亿美元的信用成本，中国的银行业首当其冲，预计全行业总不良贷款率升至约为6.6%的峰值。

标普新闻稿称，基于标普修正后的2020年中国GDP将增长4.8%的预测假设，预计中国商业银行的全行业总不良贷款率将升至峰值约为6.6%。如果出现该种情形，则拨备覆盖率或将从2019年4季度的186%下降至52%。

标普全球评级信用分析师胡旸瑞表示，中国监管层截至目前的应对措施是利用银行系统来对冲疫情对经济的影响，以及向对保障医疗支持和抑制病毒至关重要的实体提供融资支持。

“银行可能需要牺牲短期商业利益，此前已面临资本压力的金融机构将因此进一步承压。”胡旸瑞表示。

标普新闻稿称，已将2020年亚太区经济增速预测下调了0.8个百分点至4.0%，为2009年以来最低，且大幅低于过去10年6%的平均增长率。

标普预计，第三季度亚太区经济会出现U型复苏，亚太区到2021年年中的就业和产出将恢复到不发生新冠疫情情形下该有的水平。

标普全球评级的亚太区首席经济学家Shaun Roache表示，一些经济活动将永远失去不会重新补上；预估相应的收入损失约为2,110亿美元，将对亚太区的资产负债表产生较大影响。

其中，备受市场关注的中国房地产行业，依旧难见转机。

标普预计，未来几周中国的房地产交易可能继续停滞，因为销售中心依然关闭或几乎无人造访。房地产建设也基本暂停，可能会导致交付日期和收入确认延后。在此情形下，房地产商未来1至2年的杠杆水平和盈利能力可能会弱化，进而削弱行业的信用状况。疫情持续的时间越长，房地产业越难从所受到干扰中恢复。

标普全球评级信用分析师叶翱行表示，房地产销售下降将削弱房地产开发商的流动性，因为销售收入仍是他们的最大和最重要的资金来源。

“一些已处于“CCC”评级组别，或者信用评级低且展望负面的公司，在未来几个月可能将面临流动性问题。”叶翱行称。

Asian banks are bracing for a rough ride in the coming six months as the coronavirus epidemic disrupts businesses across the region, likely prompting a spike in bad loans and ultimately dealing a blow to their bottom lines.
Lenders from DBS, Singapore’s biggest bank, to HSBC, the largest of three currency-issuing banks in Hong Kong, have warned in the past two weeks that they will have to set aside additional provisions for loan losses in the first quarter – a risk they say is short term and manageable.
China’s biggest banks are not scheduled to update their guidance for 2020 until next month, but credit ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has forecast that the peak questionable loan ratio for China’s 285 trillion yuan (US$40.5 trillion) banking sector “may almost double” in a worst-case scenario.
“We have also seen it can take years to restore standards in [non-performing loan] recognition, and in the quality of the financial statements, once such standards are loosened,” S&P analyst Ryan Tsang said in a research note. “We see a risk that companies may exploit relaxed standards to drag out repayments for years.”
HSBC, which counts Hong Kong as its largest market and has made a big bet on growth in the Greater Bay Area, said last week it expects about US$600 million of provisions for additional loan losses if the coronavirus outbreak drags on into the second half of the year – its worst-case scenario.
“There will be revenue impact, which will become progressively more acute, if the coronavirus was to continue beyond the next month to six weeks,” Ewan Stevenson, the HSBC chief financial officer, said on a conference call on February 18. “We think that the Q1 impact, as we sit here today, is probably rangebound in the order of about US$200 million to US$500 million relative to our previous planning assumptions.”
DBS said it expects credit costs – the amount set aside for bad loans – to increase by four to five basis points for the year.

With its latest restructuring, HSBC is seeking to better tap into China’s growing wealth both at home and abroad by combining its private bank with its wealth management and retail banking businesses, according to the global head of the newly merged business.
Charlie Nunn, the chief executive of HSBC’s new wealth and personal banking unit, said the combined business can become a “real powerhouse” in the wealth space with the goal of increasing revenue by “double digits”. The biggest of Hong Kong’s currency issuing banks, HSBC is placing even greater focus on Asia as part of a reshaping under interim CEO Noel Quinn that is expected to include US$4.5 billion in annual cost reductions and as many as 35,000 job cuts.
“We want to deliver on the growth that we’ve been achieving, grow faster and be able to do more for our customers at a very simple level and then have a combined business that now really enabled us to compete at the top of the wealth franchise and grow and capture some market share,” Nunn told .
The combined wealth business has US$1.4 trillion in assets under management, with nearly half of those assets in Asia. Revenue from Asia in the wealth business increased by 12 per cent to US$5.7 billion last year.

The latest strategy update, announced last month, is the third reorganisation for HSBC in a decade as Quinn tries to improve its profitability and win the top job at the bank. John Flint, the former CEO, was ousted in August after just 18 months in the job.
It comes as HSBC, Europe’s largest banks by assets, and other lenders are struggling to navigate historically low interest rates worldwide, slowing global growth and rising protectionism.
Hong Kong, the bank’s largest market, has been hit hard by months of anti-government protests and the coronavirus epidemic, which has infected more than 86,000 people worldwide. The city’s economy fell into a technical recession last year and is expected to contract further this year.
“We view the end-state business plan targets as ambitious and credit-positive if achieved,” Alessandro Roccati, senior vice-president in Moody’s Investor Service’s financial institutions group, said in a research note. “However, factors beyond management’s control such as weaker growth, the low rate environment, US-China trade tensions, social unrest in Hong Kong and the duration and ultimate magnitude of the coronavirus epidemic may present greater challenges for the plan than presently anticipated.”

受新型冠状病毒全球感染扩大的影响，在金融市场，投资资金正在远离风险资产。认为将对世界经济构成打击的警惕感加强，投资者对风险敬而远之。美国10年期国债的收益率持续创出历史最低记录，再次出现低于3个月债收益率的“利率倒挂”。而在大宗商品市场，原油大跌。美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）暗示再次降息，各国已开始展开政策总动员。不过，在疫情仍在扩大的背景下，能在多大程度上给资金萎缩踩下刹车仍是未知数。

显示全球股市整体波动的“MSCI全球基准指数(ACWI)”在一周（2月24～28日）内下跌11％。一下子抹平了2019年10月以来的上涨。美国道琼斯30种工业股平均指数截至28日连续7天下跌，一周跌幅达到3583点，创出历史新高。出现达到雷曼危机之后的2008年10月（1874点）近2倍的创纪录股市下跌。特斯拉一周下跌逾25％，以股价高估明显的“成长股”为中心，投资资金迅速撤出。

日经平均指数一周下跌2243点，跌幅创出雷曼危机时以来的最大。在德国和希腊等欧洲国家，股价下跌也在扩大。

资金的避险态度明显。如果给主要投资资产的一周涨跌比率排出名次，跌幅首位是原油。纽约原油期货跌至每桶约45美元，在1周里下跌16％，创出1年零2个月的新低。日本乐天证券的大宗商品分析师吉田哲指出，“由于股价大跌导致企业的设备投资和个人消费放缓，作为原材料的原油的需求将来有可能受到打击”。

低评级企业的公司债（高收益债券）无法兑付的风险被意识到，投资者已开始撤走资金。美国洲际交易所（ICE）统计显示，美国高收益债券与美国国债的收益率差28日达到5.21％，在1周内扩大1.38个百分点。突破5％，是自美联储主席鲍威尔为消除经济衰退风险而暗示停止加息的2019年1月4日以来，时隔约1年首次。

美联储统计显示，美国企业的公司债与贷款的债务余额截至2019年9月约为16万亿美元，增至历史新高。如果经济恶化，财务脆弱的企业的倒闭增加这一风险将随之提高。

在信用市场，警惕感也在扩大。在预测企业信用等级的基础上交易的“信用违约互换（CDS）”市场，美国通用汽车（GM）等的信用违约互换保证金率上升。出现汽车销售放缓的风险。

与此同时，还出现资金撤出被视为安全的资产、加快持有现金的趋势。黄金在一周里下跌约5％。因股票等其他风险资产暴跌而遭受损失的投资者正试图抛售处于高点的资产，以防止进一步的损失。

另一方面，资金流向了以美国国债为代表的安全资产。由于追求安全资产的投资者的买入和降息预期叠加，美国的10年债收益率28日降至1.11％（价格上升），创出历史最低。

债券市场的走势暗示出经济萧条的明显。在美国，10年期债收益率低于3个月债（1.29％），再次出现被视为经济衰退前兆的“利率倒挂”。

另一方面，资金回归安全资产地位此前出现动摇的日元。在28日的美国市场，一度达到1美元兑107.4～107.6日元。

นายรณดล นุ่มนนท์ รองผู้ว่าการ ด้านเสถียรภาพสถาบันการเงิน ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย (ธปท.) เปิดเผยว่า จากการติดตามสถานการณ์ต่างๆ รวมทั้งการแพร่ระบาดของโรคติดเชื้อไวรัสโควิด-19 ที่มีแนวโน้มลุกลามและส่งผลกระทบรุนแรงในวงกว้างต่อธุรกิจและประชาชนทั่วไป จึงได้ร่วมกับสถาบันการเงิน กำหนดมาตรการช่วยเหลือเพิ่มเติมแก่ลูกหนี้ธุรกิจทุกประเภทและครัวเรือนที่ได้รับผลกระทบจากเหตุการณ์ดังกล่าวในเชิงรุก

โดยเน้นการให้ความช่วยเหลือด้านสภาพคล่องและเร่งปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ อาทิ ให้เงินทุนหมุนเวียนเพิ่ม พักชำระหนี้เป็นการชั่วคราว ขยายระยะเวลาการชำระหนี้ ลดดอกเบี้ยและค่าธรรมเนียม ผ่อนชำระขั้นต่ำบัตรเครดิตได้ต่ำกว่าร้อยละ 10 เพิ่มวงเงินชั่วคราวสำหรับสินเชื่อส่วนบุคคล เพื่อช่วยให้ลูกหนี้สามารถผ่านพ้นช่วงวิกฤตินี้ไปได้ โดยกำหนดเป็นมาตรการชั่วคราวระยะเวลา 2 ปี ระหว่าง 1 มกราคม 2563 ถึง 31 ธันวาคม 2564 

ทั้งนี้เพื่อให้สถาบันการเงินช่วยเหลือด้านสภาพคล่องและปรับโครงสร้างหนี้ให้แก่ลูกหนี้ได้อย่างทั่วถึงและทันท่วงที ธปท. จึงได้ปรับปรุงกฎเกณฑ์ที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการจัดชั้นและการกันเงินสำรอง รวมทั้งการรายงานข้อมูลเครดิตของลูกหนี้เพื่อให้เข้าถึงสินเชื่อได้ง่ายขึ้น… อ่านต่อที่