在中国近期进一步向外资开放资产管理和证券行业之后，摩根大通公司同意收购在中国一家合资共同基金管理公司中当地合作伙伴的全部持股，从而全资持股该公司。
据彭博社报道，摩根大通周五发布声明，将收购上海国际信托有限公司持有的上投摩根基金管理有限公司49%的股份。摩根大通没有透露购买价格。
中国数以万亿美元的资产管理市场本周进一步开放，摩根大通是众多公司中率先寻求完全控股在中国共同基金业务的资产管理公司。从4月1日开始，外国公司可以首次成立独资的资产管理公司和投资银行，或者寻求收购当地合作伙伴的持股。
摩根资产管理公司的董事长贝特曼（Paul Bateman）在一份声明中表示，“随着我们在这个至关重要的市场上推进在岸业务，我们期待继续满足中国和国际投资者不断变化的需求。”
中国国家外汇管理局资本项目管理司司长叶海生表示，近期改进外债管理措施，客观上旨在为境内主体跨境融资提供较大的便利；而作为融资主体的企业，需理性对待，绝不可盲目地借外债加杠杆。
《中国外汇》杂志刊登署名叶海生的文章并指出，当前受新冠肺炎疫情全球扩散的影响，国际市场动荡加剧。由于疫情发展具有不确定性，市场情绪的影响还会持续，故在当前市场环境下，企业开展跨境融资面临的汇率风险急剧增加。
“3月份以来，随着全球市场各类资产价格的暴跌，不少机构认为是‘抄底’的好机会，要求监管机构放松资金流出限制（如放宽QDII额度），这种想法未免太过天真和理想化。”他在文章中说。
叶海生并称，经济向好适当加杠杆可以获得较高收益；但在当前形势下，加杠杆无异于“自杀”。实际上，去年以来已有不少机构在境外投资中尝到了加杠杆的“苦果”。
市场主体要强化外债风险管控，尤其是外债借入环节的汇率风险管理，防范于前，坚持汇率中性原则。在当前市场波动较大的情况下，要充分考虑汇率变化的经济风险，并增对加汇率变化的敏感性分析，利用交叉货币利率掉期工具或组合期权等工具进行风险管理。
上月中国人民银行和国家外汇管理局发布通知称，将全口径跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数由1上调至1.25，政策调整后跨境融资风险加权余额上限相应提高。随后国家外管局又将外债便利化试点范围扩大至上海（自由贸易试验区）、湖北（自由贸易试验区及武汉东湖新技术开发区）、广东及深圳（粤港澳大湾区）等省市。
叶海生指出，上述外债政策调整，不会引发外债规模的大幅上升，也不会加剧中国的外债风险。同时，在具体操作中，相关管理部门也会严格把关。
“房地产企业、政府融资平台等受宏观调控的行业和企业，不能享受跨境融资宏观审慎管理政策，”他在文章中提到，“对享受便利化额度的试点企业，会严把资质关，严格规范操作，加强定期监测和事后监管。”
此前中国国家外汇管理局公布，截至2019年末中国全口径（含本外币）外债余额为20,573亿美元，较9月末增加78亿美元。外管局认为，中国外债风险总体可控。
新冠疫情莫非要让日本重温通缩噩梦？
日本经济磕磕绊绊地从长期通缩走出来数年之后，可能又要重新回到物价不断下跌的老路上来，新冠疫情或将拖累经济陷入深度低迷，决策者为此苦思各种选项。
经济若重回通缩，将是对首相安倍晋三的沉重打击，他认为日本经济走出停滞，是2012年12月实施的“安倍经济学”刺激政策所取得的一项关键成就。
而分析师认为，通缩威胁是真真切切的，近期油价急挫压制通胀，新冠疫情也重创了已经处于衰退边缘的经济。
第一生命经济研究所经济分析师新家义贵预期，核心消费者物价将从4月开始下降，临近年底时降幅还会加快。
“对通胀的直接打击将来自油价的下跌。但其他商品物价可能也会因需求疲弱而下滑，因疫情损及薪资增长和就业。”他说道。
“很明显疫情将导致严重的经济衰退，这对物价前景不利。”
路透调查显示，预计今年第二季和第三季核心消费者物价指数同比可能只会上升0.1%，10-12月当季下滑0.4%。
日本与通缩之间长期而棘手的关系始于1990年代的银行业危机和经济衰退。
持续数十年的疲弱需求和物价下滑，使得难以改变的消费者预期更加根深蒂固，让企业不可能上调价格，并迫使许多公司忍痛打折，哪怕在经济增长后期也是如此。
降价就意味着公司用于薪资和设备方面的资金减少，进而打击家庭消费。
日本的消费者物价是在2013年初才开始增长，此前首相安倍晋三采取提振信心和就业的激进刺激政策，重振了经济。日本2月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)较上年同期的涨幅达到0.6%。
但现在疫情损及薪资、让消费降温，并迫使零售商考虑裁员，有将这些政策的益处化为乌有的风险。
分析师指出，由于日本公司被迫取消在4月新财年开始时的宴会活动，已经造成牛肉和鲜花等商品价格下滑。
日本制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)也显示出通缩的初步迹象。3月投入物价出现了自2016年以来的首次下降，而由于企业将原材料成本下降因素传导至客户，产出物价创三年半来的最大降幅。
政策制定者们直到现在还在争论什么时候正式宣布取得对抗通缩战争的胜利，而现在他们私下里却在担心物价恢复持续下跌的风险。
“我们的担心是日本可能会重新陷入通缩。我们不能指望工资增长，因为现在的问题是如何防止失业，”一位政府官员表示。
“消费者物价可能会开始下降。这还不确定，但存在风险。”
该观点得到一位熟悉央行想法的人士的呼应，他警告称企业和家庭的信心有可能减弱。由于未获得公开发言的授权，两位官员都要求匿名。
与全球金融危机期间不同，现在日本决策者的政策工具箱几乎是空空如也。
首相安倍周三表示，政府将实施“必要和充分的”经济政策，以确保日本不会再度进入通缩。
但分析人士怀疑，日本能否在不令原本紧张的财政状况雪上加霜的情况下，拿出一个与其他主要经济体推出的支出计划规模相当的方案。
目前正在制定的一项方案涉及额外发行1,490亿美元的债券，可能侧重于为现金拮据的企业提供直接支持，而不是以支出来提振需求。
日本央行承诺在3月加速购买风险资产，但已经没有多少空间来扩大规模本就庞大的债券购买计划。
加深负利率也备受争议，因此举可能损害金融机构的利润。
“我们可能会看到重返通缩，尤其是如果疫情迫使东京封城，”法国巴黎银行首席日本经济分析师河野龙太郎说。
“但可以动用的宏观经济政策工具正在接近极限。”
The losses for the wider global aviation industry, excluding airlines, from the coronavirus pandemic could exceed US$2 trillion this year, with millions of jobs at risk in Asia-Pacific alone, according to Zheng Lei, founder and president of the Institute for Aviation Research, an independent think tank.
“Airlines are the key to the whole supply chain, if they become problematic, other parts of the supply chain will be affected,” said Zheng Lei, who is also the head of aviation department at Swinburne University of Technology in Australia.
“As to impact on the global aviation sector, it has already surpassed US$200 billion. This is only for airlines, not including [the] impact on airports, retailers inside airports and on-the-ground workers. Its bigger impact should be more than tenfold of that on other sectors in the economy, such as to tourism, and shocks to export and import trade.”
According to recent estimates by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger revenue losses for airlines in the Asia-Pacific this year are expected to reach around US$88 billion and US$252 billion globally.
The aviation ecosystem is vast and supports many industries. It includes in-flight meal providers, ground service companies, transport, storage and maintenance providers, employing millions in free-duty shops, retail and catering, ground staff, shuttle bus drivers and security personnel in airports across the world.
The aviation sector and industries associated with it have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which was first identified in China. The world’s second largest economy and its outbound travellers have been a major driver of the global tourism industry. They spend US$130 billion in 2018, up 13 per cent from a year earlier, according to the China Tourism Academy. But as the disease spread rapidly to more than 200 countries worldwide, governments imposed sweeping travel restrictions, forcing airlines to ground most of their fleet.
Stocks in Asia and Europe suffered fresh losses on Monday due to unrelenting pressure from the worsening global spread of Covid-19. The virus has already infected more than 724,000 people worldwide and caused 34,017 deaths.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped almost four percent at the opening, Hong Kong’s Hang Sang Index slid 1.9 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite fell about 1.4 percent.
All the European stocks also tanked in early trading, with shares in France off the most. The CAC 40 was down 2.6 percent while London’s FTSE 100 nosedived two percent. Germany’s DAX was lower by 1.5 percent and the pan-European Stoxx 600 tumbled 2.2 percent.
The downbeat tone to the start of the week suggests “that the false rally in a super bear market won’t last for too long, as investors continue to evaluate deteriorating economic conditions and an escalating pandemic situation,” Margaret Yang, an analyst with CMC Markets, said, as cited by CNN.
The ongoing pandemic threatens, among other things, jobs, corporate earnings and the travel industry, despite massive bailout pledges by governments across the globe. Last week US jobless claims hit a historic record level, surging to over three million. The country now has more coronavirus cases than any other in the world, with more than 142,000 infections and 2,489 deaths as of Monday.
The coronavirus pandemic has driven the global economy into a downturn that will require massive funding to help developing nations, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Friday.
“It is clear that we have entered a recession” that will be worse than in 2009 following the global financial crisis, she said in an online press briefing.
With the worldwide economic “sudden stop,” Georgieva said the fund’s estimate “for the overall financial needs of emerging markets is $2.5 trillion.”
But she warned that estimate “is on the lower end.” Governments in emerging markets, which have suffered an exodus of capital of more than $83 billion in recent weeks, can cover much of that, but “clearly the domestic resources are insufficient” and many already have high debt loads.
Over 80 countries, mostly of low incomes, have already have requested emergency aid from the International Monetary Fund, she said.
“We do know that their own reserves and domestic resources will not be sufficient,” Georgieva said, adding that the fund is aiming to beef up its response “to do more, do it better, do it faster than ever before.”
The IMF chief spoke to reporters following a virtual meeting with the Washington-based lender’s steering committee, when she officially requested a increase in the fund’s fast-deploying emergency facilities from their current level of around $50 billion.
She also welcomed the $2.2 trillion economic package approved by the US Senate, saying “it is absolutely necessary to cushion the world’s largest economy against an abrupt drop the economic activities.”
The apex bank of the country has announced a raft of measure to shield the economy from the pandemic and has decided to slash the repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent, reverse repo rate by 90 bps and cash reserve ratio by 100 bps to 3 per cent from March 28 for one year.
In the wake of the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, which is wreaking havoc across the world, many countries have been put under lockdown and brought to a screeching halt. India is no exception and has been put under a 21-day lockdown, which is causing a huge loss to the economy. To boost the economy, Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman has announced a Rs 1.07 lakh crore relief package for the poor on March 26.
“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to advance its meeting due on April 3. It was decided for March 24, 25, 27 and undertook the careful evaluation”, said RBI governor Shaktikanta Das while addressing a press conference today. Das added further: “The MPC voted for a sizeable reduction in repo rate and maintaining accommodative stance. There was some difference in quantum of reduction and MPC voted by 4:2 majorities to reduce policy repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent.”
“This would not necessarily promote growth but avert a collapse, so it is a big positive. The implications of these measures are quite clear that includes no freeze in the credit market. The banks get some at low cost and lose some (lower lending rate, the pressure to lend),” said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stockbrokers.
However Das, while addressing the media last time, announced a few steps to ensure liquidity in the market and said that he was not ruling out any rate cut. But seeing the extraordinary state of affairs, the RBI has to take this action immediately. Even the banks around the world have cut their interest rates amid the economic challenges unleashed by COVID-19. A few days ago the US Fed slashed interest rates and brought it down to roughly zero. In South Korea, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps.
Das also explained that these MPC decisions and RBI’s other actions must be seen as a comprehensive package with force multipliers. He mentioned that large parts of the world will slip into recession. He announced that all banks and lending institutions may allow a three-month moratorium on all loans.
The head of the International Monetary Fund said Friday it is clear that the global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the 189-nation lending agency was forecasting a recovery in 2021, saying it could be a “sizable rebound.” But she said this would only occur if nations succeed in containing the coronavirus and limiting the economic damage.
“A key concern about a long-lasting impact of the sudden stop of the world economy is the risk of a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs that not only can undermine the recovery but erode the fabric of our societies,” she told reporters at a news conference following a telephone conference with finance officials from the 24 nations that make up the IMF’s policy-setting panel.
She said the IMF was updating its economic outlook now and it would be released in a few weeks, allowing the agency more time to assess the economic impacts of the virus.
Asked if the United States was now in recession, she noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had said Thursday that America ” may well be in a recession.” She said she believed not only the United States but many other advanced economies and a number of developing countries had already entered downturns.
Georgieva said lower income countries were being hit hard by the spreading coronavirus, with 81 nations now seeking support from an IMF emergency financing program being used to provide aid.
She announced that Kyrgyzstan would receive the first IMF support package of $120.9 million to deal with adverse effects of the virus.
She repeated a pledge that the IMF stood ready to make all $1 trillion of its lending resources available to countries being hit by the virus.
“We have seen an extraordinary spike in requests for IMF emergency financing,” Georgieva said. “We are being asked by our members to do more, do it better and do it faster than ever before.”
She said to meet the increased demand she would seek to double the emergency financing program and simplify the procedures countries will have to go through to obtain IMF support. She said the IMF was also looking for ways to expand its current lending facilities to provide more help to countries.
Georgieva said the IMF also wanted to find ways to provide more debt relief to the poorest countries.
She said she planned to discuss these issues with the IMF’s executive board with the goal of putting together a package of reforms that could be presented at the IMF’s spring meetings in mid-April. Because of the virus, the spring meetings of both the IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, will be virtual this year instead of meetings in Washington.
“IMF efforts that start to offer debt relief to the poorest countries and that increase financing to help prevent a global financial crisis are really positive and needed steps,” said Eric LeCompte, the executive director Jubilee USA, a group that campaigns for increased assistance for low-income countries.
Bank Indonesia (BI) is ensuring the liquidity in the country’s financial system would be sufficient to meet the people’s needs in the coming months as massive capital outflows seen in the past several days have begun to decline.
BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said in Jakarta on Thursday that there is at least Rp 450 trillion (US$27.77 billion) in cash stored in banks and ATMs in Indonesia, which would be sufficient for the next six months.
“We have been working closely with banks in the last two weeks to boost their liquidity,” Perry told reporters on Thursday during an increased requirement for cash in the past several days to finance efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. “We want to assure the public that we have sufficient stocks of cash.”
Perry also said the central bank saw signs of easing capital outflows, driven by the announcement of a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus by the United States and to-be-announced stimulus by the European Union.
“The stimulus package has reduced pressure on a global scale and resulted in better sentiments for Indonesia’s financial markets,” Perry said, adding the central bank has since recorded a lessening capital outflow.
The rupiah appreciated as much as 1.8 percent against the US dollar to Rp 16,205 on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), meanwhile, jumped the most since 1999 by as much as 11 percent on Thursday’s trading, the best performer in the region, despite other Asian indices recording declines during the day.
The COVID-19 crisis is much different than Asia’s crisis in 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008 as banks remain in a healthy condition despite weakening business activities and volatile financial markets, Perry said.
“We want to make sure that the situation is different than the crisis in 1998 and in 2008 as the banking industry remains healthy with low levels of non-performing loans and good financial market conditions,” he added.
Because of the pandemic, the central bank also plans to implement shorter trading hours and a shorter settlement period for transactions starting next week.
As of Tuesday, BI had injected liquidity of up to Rp 300 trillion into the financial markets and banks to help support the country’s crashing currency as foreign investors sold off Indonesian assets.
The central bank recorded a Rp 125.2 trillion capital outflow from government bonds, the stock market and BI certificates so far this year. Foreign investors sold Rp 112 trillion worth of government bonds and Rp 9.2 trillion worth of Indonesian shares, with most of the sell-offs recorded this month.
瑞士在线金融和交易服务商瑞讯银行（Swissquote Bank）最新的评论摘要：
全球股市沉浸盛宴中
美国国会通过了瞩目期待的金额高达2万亿美元的财政救助计划，这是美国史上最大规模的救助计划，从而对抗冠状病毒引致的经济放缓，同时终止全球范围的股市大出血。我们还不清楚这么庞大的资金究竟会用在具体什么地方，不过这轮救助计划肯定囊括一项惠及广大群体的援助方案，惠及各大规模企业，向家庭直接派发支票，推出失业保险并推迟纳税时间，从而帮助美国人民在此轮惊涛骇浪中渡过难关并将经济损失降低到最低水平。
那本轮救助计划是应对病毒的一剂经济预防针吗？现在下定论还为时过早，不过市场对此表现得欢天喜地。
目前最大的问题是：这轮乐观的市场情绪会继续持续下去吗？究竟会持续多久呢？
这轮经济刺激计划带来的主要问题之一就是，它比较容易让人上瘾。刺激力度越大，投资者要求的就越多。
不过，投资者目前明白，为了改善投资者的情绪，美国政府和国会很可能已经超出了可以动用的最大限度的救助能力。目前特朗普和鲍威尔手中很可能没更多的牌可以打了。因此股市可能已经轻触市场苦苦等待的顶部了。公司债券和抵押债券也应开始在这节点承压了，因为大家都在指望着美国政府和美联储了，然而美国政府和美联储来指望谁呢？
须密切关注股价波幅及美元流入
为了评估股市反弹的程度，我们要密切关注以下两件事：股价的波动幅度和美元的流入问题。
第一，每日波动最好不要在5%至10%的幅度，无论是上涨还是下跌。资产价格跳涨10%和大跌10%的性质一样，都值得令人担忧。因此，要稳定股市价格，每日波动幅度最好在1%至3%之间，从而可以在短期至中期恢复投资者的信心。
然后，市场买入美元的速度在放缓，暗示投资者套现速度在放缓，同时在开始将手头积攒的大堆现金重返股市。
需要指出的是，我们目前还几乎无法预判接下来数周或数月股市会何去何从。随着全球性经济衰退若隐若现，这其实几乎是板上钉钉的事了，至少在今年上半年，受冠状病毒影响的经济数据显然会每天刺激着投资者的神经。这样看来，昨天公布的3月预估采购经理人指数对大多数经济体来讲都是灾难性的，其中服务业采购经理人指数会随着社会活动的完全停滞而遭受史无前例的重击，因为发达国家服务业占国民经济的比重是压倒性的。
不过从长期来看，股市总会从最艰难的股灾中恢复过来并逐渐走强，至少股价会在金融危机过后反弹。