You can get more detail in the full Banking Top 10 Trends for 2023 report.
https://www.accenture.com/content/dam/accenture/final/industry/banking/document/Accenture-Banking-Top-10-Trends-2023.pdf
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Top 10 banking trends for 2023
JANUARY 10, 20235-MINUTE READ
In brief
Until the financial crisis of 2008/9, interest rates were the gravitational force that kept banking’s integrated deposit-lending model working.
When that gravity disappeared, powerful waves of disruption and innovation reshaped the industry.
The return of interest rates has pulled banking into a more predictable and familiar orbit. Deposits and balance sheets suddenly matter again.
A combination of well-established forces and recent developments is reshaping banking. Over the past 17 years low interest rates have acted as a Big Bang in banking. They shattered the industry’s fundamental equation—that deposits drive lending power. For all this time, money has been effectively free and worth very little to banks.
In the absence of that revenue stream, banks shifted their focus from the totality of customers’ financial needs to isolated products that continued to generate fees. At the same time, fintech innovators burst onto the scene, awash with cheap capital and valuing scale over financial returns.
Now that positive rates have returned, the constellation of banking products is drifting into a more familiar and predictable orbit.
Leading banks recognize they need to accelerate change—not only to compete but to find new paths to growth. The five key forces of change that Accenture has identified have helped shape and added impetus to the trends which are likely to have the greatest impact on banking in the year ahead. -
麦肯锡全球银行业年度回顾2022年
我们的全球银行业年度回顾每年更新一次，提供我们对全球银行业的最佳研究和见解。
McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review
December 1, 2022 | Report
Updated annually, our Global Banking Annual Review offers the best of our research and insights into the global banking industry. Explore the findings from our most recent report and scroll for past years’ reports.
Global Banking Annual Review 2022: Banking on a sustainable path
Banks will need to become more resilient and reinvent their business models to ride out the current volatile period and achieve long-term growth and profitability.
First the pandemic, and now inflation, war, rising interest rates, supply chain disruption, and more: for banks globally, the combination of macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical disruption in 2022 overturned many assumptions and ended more than a decade of relative stability. One thing didn’t change, however: valuations. Banks overall continue to trade at a steep discount to other sectors, a reflection of the fact—confirmed once again in 2022—that more than half of the world’s banks earn less than their cost of equity.
In this year’s Global Banking Annual Review, we take a closer look at the roller-coaster ride banks have been on over the past months, the growing divergence between banks with different profiles in different countries, and the factors that make the best performers stand out.
At a time of growing corporate and government commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, we also shine a spotlight on sustainable finance, a much-discussed theme in banking. Despite lingering skepticism and concerns about greenwashing, we find strong evidence suggesting that climate-related financing is entering a “next era,” as the initial surge of funding for renewable energies gives way to a deeper engagement with banking clients across all sectors.
For banks, 2022 has been a tumultuous year of shocks and growing uncertainty
Banks rebounded from the pandemic with strong revenue growth, but the context has changed dramatically. Now a series of interrelated shocks—some geopolitical and others lingering economic and social effects of the pandemic—are exacerbating fragilities.
Bank profitability reached a 14-year high in 2022, with expected return on equity between 11.5 and 12.5 percent (Exhibit 1). Revenue globally grew by $345 billion. This growth was propelled by a sharp increase in net margins, as interest rates rose after languishing for years on their cyclical floors. For now, the banking system globally is sitting comfortably on Tier 1 capital ratios between 14 and 15 percent—the highest ever.Updated annually, our Global Banking Annual Review offers the best of our research and insights into the global banking industry. Explore the findings from our most recent report and scroll for past years’ reports.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/global-banking-annual-review -
A Semantic Analysis of Monetary Shamanism: A case of the BOJ’s Governor Haruhiko Kuroda
Abstract
This paper examines whether statistical natural language processing techniques have been useful in analyzing documents on monetary policy. A simple latent semantic analysis shows a relatively good performance in classifying the Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s documents on its governors’ policy and the impact without human reading. Our results also show that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s communication strategy changed slightly in 2016 when the BOJ introduced the negative interest rate policy. This change in 2016 is comparable to the one from the transition from Masaaki Shirakawa to Kuroda. In spite of the intention, the BOJ had a misjudgment in the communication strategy.Creation Date/NO. February 2017 17-E-011
Research Project Sustainable Growth and Macroeconomic Policy -
Adverse Selection versus Moral Hazard in Financial Contracting: Evidence from collateralized and non-collateralized loans
Abstract
We test the existence of adverse selection and moral hazard in financial contracting by examining the choice of borrowers between collateralized and non-collateralized loans. Using comprehensive loan-level data from all loans underwritten by a large public bank in Japan, we examine the borrowers’ behavior before and after the introduction of non-collateralized loans that expand the choice set for borrowers. We find an increase in credit risk for firms that switch to non-collateralized loans after the introduction, which is consistent with moral hazard. In contrast, we find mixed and unclear evidence for the existence of adverse selection.Creation Date/NO. March 2017 17-E-058
Research Project Study on Corporate Finance and Firm Dynamics -
Working Capital Management during Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan
Abstract
This paper demonstrates the adjustment speed of firm working capital and the relationships between working capital and firm performance in Japan during the global financial crisis. Using quarterly firm-level data, we find that the adjustment of working capital was weaker during the crisis. Moreover, the negative relationship between excess working capital and firm performance became more significant during the crisis, especially for larger firms. However, this crisis-related working capital-firm performance effect does not appear to persist for very long, because to finance any excess working capital, firms borrow from banks and reduce their internal cash both during and outside periods of crisis.Creation Date/NO. March 2017 17-E-045
Research Project Study on Corporate Finance and Firm Dynamics -
Effects of Main Bank Switch on Small Business Bankruptcy
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of main bank switching on the probability of small business bankruptcy by employing a propensity score matching estimation approach. We use a unique firm-level data set of more than 1,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) incorporated in Japan; the firms are young and unlisted SMEs just after incorporation. We find that main bank switching increases the probability of firm bankruptcy. In addition, the result suggests that switching increases the probability of bankruptcy when firms switch to financial institutions with which they have not previously transacted. This result may be because such switching worsens the financial conditions of client firms. We also find that the result holds only when the ex-post main banks are not descendants of their ex-ante main banks.Creation Date/NO. March 2017 17-E-019
Research Project The Role of Regional Financial Institutions toward Regional Revitalization: How do regional financial institutions contribute to improving the quality of employment in the local economy?