分类: 未分类

  • 新加坡银行业

    新加坡是名誉国际的金融中心,支撑该国甚至亚太区的经济,因此被誉为亚洲的瑞士。经济快速增长、政治环境稳定、有力的律法和税务政策,以及严厉打击犯罪与贪污活动,促使新加坡继日本和香港之后成为亚洲第三大金融中心。其中,银行业是新国金融业的主要驱动力,并且正在崛起为全球最强之一。截至目前,在新加坡银行界占重要地位的外资银行和本地银行共有117家。

    领域一览

    新加坡是全球五大活跃外汇交易中心,也是亚洲第二大场外衍生品交易中心,并且是该地区领先的衍生商品交易中心。作为亚洲首屈一指的资产管理机构之一,新加坡在亚太区有卓越的资本市场,管理的资产总额约为1兆新元,被誉为亚洲最佳资产管理地。

    新加坡交易所(SGX)是全球200多家公司的首选上市地点。事实上,新加坡已成长为除日本以外亚洲最大的房地产投资信托基金(REITs)市场,并在航运、航空和基础设施资产业务信托方面提供多元投资。 除此之外,新加坡还为固定收益投资者提供各种投资机会,包括多种新加坡政府证券和外国公司债券。

    为什么新加坡的银行业如此成功?

    我们来看看银行业蓬勃发展的原因,

    1. 国内银行市场开发
    2. 本土银行透过并购加强区域市场。
    3. 外资银行的扩张,其中一些使得新加坡成为区域甚至全球重要的银行服务平台,进而提升竞争力。
    4. 竞争提升,推动了创新产品发展,并有更具竞争力的定价模式。
    5. 除了传统的贷款和存款功能外,还提供进复杂性质的银行服务,如公司和投资银行业务。
    6. 严格的银行保密法、税收优惠政策和一整套财富管理服务,造就了私人银行业的繁荣。瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group)和瑞银银行(UBS AG)就扩大了新加坡的私人银行业务,以迎合亚洲和欧洲的新需求。
    7. 承认并达到中小企业的需求。中小企业占了新加坡银行市场显著部分。

    新加坡银行业趋势

     
    1. 银行业自由化

    为了加强银行体系,提高新加坡作为国际金融中心的声誉和地位,新加坡金融管理局(MAS))于1999年5月启动了一项为期五年的自由化计划。其中推出的措施,包括推出新类型的全面银行(Qualifying Full Bank,QFB)执照于外资银行、提升有限制牌照银行(restricted banks)的数量,并且给予以新元做批发业务的岸外银行更大弹性。此外,金融管理局还着手改善公司治理规则,并取消了外资在本地银行持股40%的限额。

    2001年6月,开放计划的第二阶段开始,限制牌照银行被重新归类为批发银行(wholesale banking)状态,以此作为提高零售银行业(retail banking)竞争力的一种方式。 QFB获得更多特权,例如在更多地方设立、提供债务和特别账户服务,同时合格离岸银行(QOB)能优先升级为批发银行。由于银行体系的弹性和稳定性,让当地银行的整合看起来很正面。

     
    2. 私人银行业的成长

    由于私人银行业的蓬勃发展,新加坡赢得了“亚洲的瑞士”的赞誉。 以下是促使新加坡私人银行业获得成功的一些原因。

    (a) 严格的银行保密法

    根据银行法令第47条文,除非银行法令有明确规定,否则客户信息不得以任何方式由银行或其任何人员披露给任何人知道。

    (b) 不承认2005年欧盟储蓄税指令

    新加坡是少数尚未签署欧盟储蓄税指令(其国家成员可以交换在这些国家进行银行和投资的人的私人信息,)的离岸中心之一。

    (c) 具吸引力的税务优惠

    在新加坡外产生的任何资本收益和利得收入都无需在新加坡纳税。
     
    3. 投资银行中心的成长

    新加坡投资银行业的发展,显示了新国有潜力成为亚洲重要的国际债务布局中心,以及蓬勃的资本市场。以下是推动投资银行业成长的因素:

    (a) 新加坡政府、法定机构、国家和企业的稳步推进。

    (b) 推出合格债券中介商制度(approved bond intermediary scheme, ABI),培育债券投资者以支持债券市场。

    (c) 身为国际交易所,新加坡交易所获得成长,吸引外国投资者进入新国。

    (d) 高标准,包括公司治理准则、修订新加坡证券交易所上市规则,以及在证券和期货法令下推出新的民事罚款制度,以维持投资者信心(代理各种措施,以加强披露、加强市场规矩,并完善上市公司治理结构) 
     
    4. 加强地方银行集团

    将之前6家本地银行集团合并成为目前3家主要本地银行(星展银行DBS、华侨银行OCBC和大华银行UOB),巩固了银行的能力,从而建立管理团队,提高运营效率,扩大业务活动范围, 以及改善业务和风险管理能力。到目前为止,本地银行已经发展成为一站式银行,符合银行客户所有需求。本地银行开始透过海外并购,往海外扩展以及加强区域发展,由此可见,合并加强了本地金融业优势,提升了竞争力。
     
    5. 中小企业银行服务

    中小企业是组成市场的重要部分。 因此,本地和外国银行都踊跃为中小企业提供量各种定制的金融服务,以符合中小企业需求。其中,各种存款和现金管理服务、贷款、信用卡、保险、贸易融资服务和投资,都是为了符合中小企业需求而设计的服务和产品。此外,政府推出多项融资计划,协助中小企业升级、扩大业务。

    银行类型

    与许多其他辖区一样,新加坡的银行迎合不同类型的客户,包括个人、公司或政府机构的商业银行(针对企业和公司)、零售银行(针对公众个人)和私人银行服务。

    银行可分为两大类,6家本地银行和117家外资银行。 在外资银行中,可以进一步细分为:

    • 27家全面银行 (full bank)- 提供一系列在银行法令下批准的银行业务,并有6家在新加坡营业的外资银行:汇丰银行、花旗银行、渣打银行、马银行、荷兰银行和法国巴黎银行,已经获得合格的全面银行(QFB)资格;
    • 53家批发银行 – 除了以新元进行活动的零售银行外,其余的批发银行业务范围都和全面银行一样。新加坡的所有批发银行都以外国银行分行的身份营运。
    • 37家岸外银行 – 为通过亚洲货币单位(一家会计单位,银行用于记下在亚洲市场进行的所有外币交易)进行交易的生意,提供如全面银行和批发银行般的银行服务。新加坡的所有岸外银行都以外国银行分行的身份营运。
    • 42家商业银行 – 提供企业融资、股票和债券发行承销、并购、投资组合管理、管理咨询和其他收费业务。例子:新加坡瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse Singapore Ltd)、新加坡巴克莱商业银行(Barclays Merchant Bank Singapore Ltd)、新加坡澳新银行新(ANZ Singapore Ltd)、安讯士银行(Axis Bank Ltd)等等。

    银行法规和条例

    在新加坡,银行法规和条例能够在国会通过的相关法令(及其相关的附属条例)中找到,而普通法和衡平法的原则和条规,则来自判例法(case law)。这些立法规范了新加坡的银行业,并确保新加坡银行业的法律框架能够跟上金融业的最新发展。

    以下是于银行业有关的法令:

    1. 银行法令 –  银行法令(Cap 19,2003 年修订)是管理新加坡商业银行的法规。
    2. .“新加坡金融管理局法令”(Cap 186,1999年修订) – 管理与金融管理局(MAS)及其业务相关的所有事宜。
    3. 反洗钱条例
    4. 支付和结算系统指南
    5. 证券和期货法令

    新加坡金融管理局及其角色

    新加坡金融管理局(MAS)成立于1971年,是事实上的中央银行,管理新加坡的金融业,并协助其发展成为国际金融中心。 金融管理局的主要职能是确保金融市场有效率地运作并符合国家经济目标。

    新加坡金融管理局(MAS)的角色:

    • 实施货币政策
    • 监管银行系统
    • 政府的银行家
    • 各个银行的银行家
    • 国际储备金管理者
    • 货币发行者
    • 发出银行牌照
    • 最终贷款人
  • Bank Indonesia to provide liquidity for banks involved in loan restructuring

    Bank Indonesia (BI) will help provide liquidity for local banks involved in a credit restructuring program for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as a part of its efforts to support the country’s economic recovery.

    BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said Tuesday that banks could use sovereign debt papers they held as underlying assets for repurchase agreements (repo) with the central bank to get fresh funds.

    Indonesian banks owned Rp 886 trillion (US$59.77 billion) in government bonds and could transact Rp 563.6 trillion worth with the central bank should they need liquidity. The remaining Rp 330.2 trillion is reserved for banks to maintain their liquidity needs.

    “Overall, banks still have a lot of government bonds they can [use as underlying assets in] repos with the central bank in order to meet their liquidity needs for MSMEs’ credit restructuring,” Perry told reporters in a livestreamed news conference.

    “Only a small number of banks own very few bonds and thus the government’s needs for fund placement will be very small,” he added.

    The government has allocated Rp 87.59 trillion for fund placements in certain banks to support the MSMEs loan restructuring program. The fund placement is a part of the government’s national economic recovery (PEN) program worth a total of Rp 641.17 trillion to soften the impact of COVID-19 on small businesses as well as state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

    The loan restructuring program is regulated in Financial Services Authority (OJK) Regulation No. 11/2020, which instructs financial institutions to provide relief for debtors affected by the pandemic. According to OJK data revealed earlier this month, 88 banks have provided 3.88 million borrowers with loan restructuring worth Rp 336.97 trillion.

    The authority projected that 7.8 million borrowers might apply for the restructuring worth Rp 1.11 quadrillion at 110 banks.

    Sunarso, the president director of state-owned Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), which has restructured loans of 1.4 million MSMEs totaling Rp 101 trillion as of April, conceded that the program would affect its revenues and liquidity. He expressed hope that the government’s fund placement could help relieve the bank’s liquidity problems this year.

    Banks had agreed to sell Rp 43.9 trillion worth of their government bonds to the central bank, Perry noted, adding that their liquidity remained “ample” to support economic recovery.

    Fitch Ratings director for banks Gary Hannify also told The Jakarta Post recently that the country’s 12-largest banks had ample liquidity as reflected in the liquidity coverage ratio of about 180 percent at the end of 2019.

    “We believe that lower loan growth together with various relief measures introduced by the central bank should help mitigate any potential pressure on funding and liquidity as a result of the coronavirus,” he said. “We expect these ratios to continue to be maintained with a satisfactory buffer throughout 2020.”

    BI has lowered the reserve requirement ratio (GWM) for banks that provide loans to export-import companies, small and medium businesses, and other prioritized sectors to provide more liquidity. The policy was expected to boost the banks’ liquidity by Rp 117.8 trillion.

    The central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 4.5 percent on Tuesday as it sought to maintain financial system stability over boosting higher economic growth.

    It also announced purchases worth Rp 22.8 trillion in government bonds in the primary market as of May 14 and planned to buy an estimated Rp 150 trillion with lower yields than the market rate to help finance its economic recovery program.

    “We are committed to supporting the government in financing the fiscal deficit and we are willing to share the burden of economic recovery,” Perry assured.

  • Indonesia may lose market confidence due to mounting debts: World Bank

    The World Bank has called on the Indonesian government to formulate a sound fiscal strategy to “flatten the debt curve” and maintain financial market confidence as debt mounts amid the coronavirus outbreak.

    Indonesia’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio would rise to 37 percent this year, from 29.8 percent at the end of last year, driven by an increase in borrowings to cover for the widening budget deficit and to cope with the economic slowdown and rupiah exchange rate depreciation, said World Bank senior economist for Indonesia Ralph van Doorn.

    “The government must [provide assurances over its] fiscal strategy to raise revenues back to at least the 2018 level to flatten the debt curve,” Van Doorn told an audience during a discussion on Wednesday, adding the country risked losing market confidence over its mounting debts.

    “Indonesia must maintain its hard-earned market confidence, which can be lost very easily, as credit rating agencies have signaled concerns [about debts] in the medium term.”

    The government needs to show a credible path for the economy to unwind “exceptional measures” taken by the government to battle the outbreak, he said. “It must reinstate the deficit ceiling and end Bank Indonesia’s partial financing of deficit” after the virus threat subsides.

    Indonesia’s budget deficit is expected to widen to 6.27 percent of gross domestic product this year, more than double the initial ceiling of 3 percent, as President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo ramps up an economic recovery stimulus to counter the blow from the outbreak.

    The government is rolling out a Rp 641.17 trillion (US$43 billion) economic recovery stimulus, bigger than previous allocations, to strengthen its social safety net programs and tax incentives, as well as preparing a Rp 149.29 trillion bailout for 12 state-owned firms, mostly as cash compensation and working capital investments, to reduce the impact of the virus crisis.

    The World Bank now projected zero percent growth for the Indonesian economy under the baseline scenario, Van Doorn said. However, the economy may contract 3.5 percent under the worst-case scenario.

    Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the widening budget deficit was warranted as government revenues may drop following an increase in tax incentives alongside weakening economic sectors.

    However, the ministry will start charging 10 percent value-added tax (VAT) on imported digital goods and services, including video and music streaming subscriptions, starting July 1 in an attempt to boost state revenue.

    “We will look at the potential income as right now we are currently having discussions with the digital companies to ensure smooth implementation,” the tax office’s revenue and compliance director, Yon Arsal, said on Wednesday.

    The government had issued Rp 376.5 trillion worth of government bonds as of April and planned to issue another Rp 697.3 trillion starting in May until the end of this year, including yen-denominated bonds.

    The Finance Ministry’s director general for financing and risk management, Luky Alfirman, estimated that the ministry would issue an additional Rp 175 trillion worth of bonds following a plan to revise the assumptions underpinning the 2020 budget.

    The central bank has pledged to buy Rp 125 trillion worth of government bonds this year in a move to “share the burden” of the economic recovery, according to Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo.

  • Govt to borrow K 1.3 trillion from Central Bank to plug deficit

    The government will borrow K1.3 trillion from the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) to plug the budget deficit for fiscal 2019-20, deputy minister for Planning and Finance U Maung Maung Win told Pyidaungsu Hluttaw on May 21.

    This is expected to be around 20 percent of total borrowings to fund the deficit. It also indicates a further decline in CBM borrowing from 25pc over the past two fiscal years and over 50pc in 2016-17. Prior to that, the CBM funded the bulk of the country’s deficits.

    The lower levels of CBM borrowing is in line with the country’s plan to reduce its reliance on central bank financing and more on bond financing.

    Under the Budget Law for the fiscal year, the actual amount that the government can raise through borrowings, including bonds, shall not be more than K9 trillion.

    Treasury bonds and treasury bills are auctioned once a month and twice a month respectively and the money raised is used to offset the budget deficit.

    At those levels, the government will fund the deficit with a combination of 40pc bonds and 20pc from the CBM. The remaining will be raised through other borrowings, including foreign loans, U Maung Maung Win said.

    The government is planning to borrow around K2.5 trillion from foreign sources, he said.

  • 美国银行称囤现金热潮已见顶,但警告刺激措施扭曲市况

    美国银行称囤现金热潮已见顶,但警告刺激措施扭曲市况

    美国银行的分析师指出,投资人在新冠疫情期间增持的现金部位,现在看来已经触顶。他们也警告,大量出笼的央行刺激措施正在决定债券价格并形成市场假象。

    美国银行每周的基金流动数据分析显示,以现金为主的基金净流岀59亿美元,为2月中以来首次净流出。

    股票基金净流出76亿美元,为12周来首见。债券基金出现13周来最大净流入。黄金基金净流入35亿美元,为历来第二大纪录。

    美银分析师计算得出,过去八周,全球各地央行以平均每小时24亿美元的惊人金额买进金融资产。

    “政府及企业债券价格被央行操纵…谁还有理由期望股票会合理估值,”分析师称。

  • 全球4月份的公司债发行额到达6314亿美元,全球公司债发行额达到史上最高

    全球企业正在通过增发公司债来募集资金。4月份的发行额到达6314亿美元,创历史新高。日本银行(央行)5月20日首次买入了偿还期还有5年的公司债。日美欧各国央行作为融资扶持政策正在扩大购买公司债。在新冠病毒疫情蔓延导致营业额锐减的情况下,许多企业可以不用增加融资成本而实现资金的确保。

    据金融信息公司路孚特(Refinitiv)统计,全球4月份的公司债发行额创出1980年以来的新高,达到过去10年的月平均的2.2倍。利用QUICK·FactSet统计的全球约1万4000家主要企业截至3月底的有息负债也达到约38万亿美元,1年里增加了2.7万亿美元。4月公司债的发行额相当于主要企业过去1年增加额的2成以上。

    支撑公司债大量发行的是各国央行的企业资金支援政策。欧洲中央银行(ECB)决定实行7500亿欧元的资产追加购买,这使得欧洲4月份的公司债发行额达到1497亿美元,为3月份的2.2倍。中国4月份的发行额也达到创记录的1612亿美元,金融、钢铁以及酒店等广泛行业相继发行债券。

    在公司债市场巨大的美国,美国联邦储备委员会(FRB)3月下旬以后扩大购买对象,甚至投资评级降到垃圾级的“堕落天使”债券也成为买入对象。3月份的发行额达到2368亿美元,创历史新高,5月仅截至19日就已达到1673亿美元,发行额的增加比3月更快。

    即使在银行融资等间接金融较多,公司债市场较小的日本,日本银行也扩大了公司债的买入。5月20日,日银首次买入了2001亿日元偿还期还有3~5年的公司债。多位投资者认为,因新冠疫情限制出行而导致业绩恶化的全日空控股(ANA HD)和三越伊势丹控股估计也了成为购买对象。在5月20日前确定了发行条件的日本企业的国内发行公司债为5050亿日元,较上年同期增长4成。

    大多数企业实现了稳定地资金募集,但根据能否受益于央行的支援政策,也存在差异。

    在美国,达美航空在3月以后被降至垃圾级,但作为美联储的购买政策的对象,4月份以7%的利率发行了35亿美元的公司债。一方面,联合航空则中止了总计22.5亿美元的债券发行。原因是该公司债券在新冠疫情前就被列入垃圾级,受到投资者警惕,未能获得足够的申购。

    流通市场上,公司债高出国债的利率(利差)也出现差异。联合航空的2024年到期公司债的利差在2月底为4%,到5月19日急剧上涨到22%。在同一期间,达美航空当年偿还的公司债则仅从1%上升至10%。

    日本方面,评级为BB+(标普全球评级)的软银集团被认为尚未成为日银的公司债购买对象,利差也在上升。2024年到期的公司债为3.7%,比2月底的1.7%显著上升。

  • Covid-19 crisis could leave $8.8 trillion hole in global economy, Asian Development Bank warns

    The coronavirus pandemic could chop nearly 10 percent off global gross domestic product (GDP), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts, more than doubling its previous forecast.

    The global economy could suffer between $5.8 trillion and $8.8 trillion in losses, the equivalent of between 6.4 percent and 9.7 percent of global GDP, the report published on Friday said. This is much worse than the Manila-based bank predicted in April, when it said that the Covid-19 global cost could range between $2 trillion and $4.1 trillion.

    The blow to the global economy will depend on how long it will take to contain the pandemic, with the bank’s worst-case scenario implying that the measures will stay in place for a half a year. The damage will be less severe if curbs on movement and business last no longer than three months.

    “This new analysis presents a broad picture of the very significant potential economic impact of Covid-19,” ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said. “It also highlights the important role policy interventions can play to help mitigate damage to economies.”

    The bank said that measures to contain the spread of the infection could inflict $1.7 trillion to $2.5 trillion in economic losses in Asia, while China alone may lose up to $1.6 trillion.

    Earlier this week, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs forecast that the world economy is set to shrink by 3.2 percent this year, and the losses in output could reach $8.5 trillion in 2020 and 2021. The decline is set to nearly “wipe out” the cumulative output gains of the previous four years, according to the report.

  • Coronavirus pandemic may throw 60 MILLION people into extreme poverty, World Bank warns

    The world’s progress in eliminating poverty is set to suffer a major setback due to the Covid-19 outbreak, forcing more people to survive on less than $1.90 per day, the World Bank has said in its recent report.

    “The pandemic and shutdown of advanced economies could push as many as 60 million people into extreme poverty – erasing much of the recent progress made in poverty alleviation,” World Bank Group President David Malpass said. According to him, the unprecedented crisis could wipe out up to three years of progress in the area.

    The pandemic has been ripping through the global economy, which is set to fall into a deep recession and contract by up to five percent this year, the Washington-based institution said.

    Last month, the bank said that the virus-triggered economic turmoil is likely to cause the first increase in global poverty since 1998, when the Asian Financial Crisis hit. Even under the bank’s best estimate, some 49 million people will fall into extreme poverty, which it defines as living on less than $1.90 per person per day.

    To help combat the deadly virus, the World Bank has offered financing emergency programs in 100 countries. In the “largest” crisis response in the Bank Group’s history, the program unlocked $160 billion in grants and financial support over a 15-month period, as well as the suspension of bilateral debt service payments. The bulk of the financial help will go to Sub-Saharan Africa, as it is expected be the region hit hardest in terms of increased extreme poverty.

    Most international financial institutions have already sounded alarms over the devastating impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with some forecasts indicating that the global gross domestic product (GDP) could fall nearly 10 percent. The UN had earlier warned that the virus could also trigger a global food shortage, while its labor agency forecasts that 195 million jobs could be lost worldwide.

  • 全球央行可能需扩大QE,防债券收益率上升

    投行摩根大通发表报告称,预期全球主要央行的量化宽松(QE)应仅足够抵销今年债券供应的大幅增加,但意味着央行可能需要扩大QE规模,以防债券收益率上升。

    报告指出,相对于该行去年底的预期,今年市场对债券需求变化最大的是来自央行的需求,尽管该行预期美联储的买债速度将由目前水平逐渐减少,并稳定在约每天50亿美元,但这速度仍较此前的QE要快得多。此外,欧洲央行此前宣布在2020年底前买债1.1万亿欧元、英国央行宣布购买2,000亿英镑国债(该行经济师及策略师预期英国央行将于6月宣布额外买债1,000亿英镑),至于日本央行亦增加购买公司债。因此,这四家央行今年的债券需求增加4.2万亿美元,较2019年4万亿美元的需求增加为多。

    然而,养老基金及保险公司、零售投资者今年对债券的需求则减少。

    在债券供应方面,报告称,全球经济受冲击及市场反应将对今年债券供应有巨大影响。因财税收入减少,多国政府财政赤字急增,这将导致发达国家政府债券供应大增,而企业亦增加发债,以确保公司有足够现金抵御经济低迷时期。

    综合而言,摩根大通估计今年市场对债券需求将增加1.9万亿美元,债券供应增加2.1万亿美元,2020年的债券供求余额将出现净恶化。在央行买债速度减缓,而债券供应上升的情况下,将意味着今年余下时间债券收益率将有上升压力。该行的分析表明,尽管央行的QE政策足以抵销今年债券供应的增长,但要防止收益率上升的话,则央行可能需要进一步扩大QE规模。

  • Bank Indonesia holds rate to safeguard financial market stability

    Bank Indonesia (BI) has decided to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged in a move aimed at safeguarding the stability of the financial market while also ensuring there is sufficient liquidity for the country’s banking industry amid the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The central bank maintained Tuesday its policy rate – the seven-day reverse repo rate – at 4.5 percent. Lending and deposit rates were also kept at 5.25 and 3.75 percent, respectively.

    “This decision was made by taking into account the need to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate amid global market uncertainties although Bank Indonesia does see room to cut the interest rate amid low inflation and the need to boost economic growth,” BI Governor Perry Warjiyo told a livestreamed press briefing.

    The government has projected this year’s economic growth to drop to 2.3 percent under a baseline scenario, from earlier an projection of 5.3 percent, and even forecasts that the economy could contract 0.4 percent as the pandemic forces people to stay at home, disrupting business activity and hitting household spending.

    The central bank has trimmed the benchmark rate twice this year by a total of 50 basis points (bps) in response to the pandemic. In total, it has slashed 150 bps off the rate since it began the current easing cycle in 2019.

    Bank Danamon economist Wisnu Wardana said the monetary policy stance would remain accommodative as Indonesia’s inflation-adjusted interest rate was still attractive among its peers.

    “Nevertheless, the current real interest rate is in-line with our emerging market peers, cautioning any move to change its policy rate further despite room for two 25 bps cuts,” he added.

    University of Indonesia Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM UI) economist Teuku Riefky said despite there being “adequate room” for policy rate cuts, the central bank should maintain yield differentials to anticipate the possibility of capital flight.

    “A lower policy rate may induce investors to move their assets back into safe-haven countries, triggering fluctuation in the rupiah,” he wrote in a research note. “This emphasizes the need to maintain the rupiah’s stability in the short-term amid the heightened uncertainty of the pandemic.”

    BI recorded a net outflow of US$5.7 billion in the first quarter as foreign investors dumped Indonesian assets. During April to May 14, however, the central bank booked $4.1 billion in net inflows.

    As a result, the rupiah strengthened by 5.1 percent on average against the US dollar as of May 18 compared to at the end of April, BI data showed. However, the currency still depreciated by around 6.52 percent against the greenback compared to last year.

    “The central bank views the rupiah as remaining fundamentally undervalued and thus having the potential to strengthen and support economic recovery,” Perry said.

    The central bank also vowed to support the country’s economic recovery through several measures. It pledged to provide liquidity for banks that provide loan restructuring for micro, small and medium businesses in support of the government’s stimulus for such enterprises that were hit hard by the pandemic.

    Around Rp 563 trillion ($38.09 billion) worth of government bonds currently held by banks could be used as underlying assets in repurchase agreements with the central bank to access more liquidity, Perry said.

    Financial Services Authority (OJK) data showed earlier this month that 88 banks had provided 3.99 million debtors with loan restructuring worth Rp 336.97 trillion. It projected around 7.8 million debtors with credit worth Rp 1.1 quadrillion might apply for the facility in 110 banks.

    BI also aimed to strengthen its monetary operations and sharia financial market deepening as well as boost the digital economy through collaboration between banks and financial technology (fintech) companies.

    “Going forward, Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor global economic and financial market dynamics as well as COVID-19 transmission and the economic impact on Indonesia over time, while implementing the coordinated follow-up policies required with the government and Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) to maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability and support the national economic recovery,” Perry said.