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外汇市场再次开始闪现货币战争的影子。越来越多声音开始警惕竞争性货币贬值这一风险。美国总统特朗普也提及负利率政策。如果启动着眼于新冠病毒后加快经济复苏的美元贬值政策，日元升值压力加强的可能性也无法否定。

美联储为迅速应对新型冠状病毒冲击，3月再次启动了雷曼危机时以来的零利率政策。但特朗普进入5月后，在推特上要求美联储引进负利率政策。由于新冠病毒冲击导致3月“动荡之际买美元”趋势加强等原因，特朗普再次将矛头对准了美联储。

对此，美联储主席鲍威尔表示“负利率并非适当的政策应对”，对特朗普筑起防火墙。此外，与因空前的股价走高而沸腾的去年不同，诱导美元贬值还存在导致投资资金外流的风险。

日美欧的中央银行一致认为要应对新冠病毒冲击，重要的并非降息，而是提供充裕的资金。日本银行和欧洲中央银行（ECB）并未加码负利率，而采用零利率政策的美联储也一直冻结负利率政策。

但是，情况稍微出现改变。最近美国股市因押注美国经济的触底而快速反弹。高科技股比率较高的纳斯达克综合指数似乎将创出最高点。

如果美国股价恢复强劲势头，为迎接被人认为陷入苦战的今年秋季的美国总统选举，特朗普重拾一年前的成功体验的可能性也将提高。在市场出现特朗普推动负利率的局面之际，本应从汇率影响因素中消失的利率差再次被关注、日美利率差缩小带来日元升值的预期浮现也不足为奇。

Bank Central Asia (BCA) has seen a jump in its digital banking transactions amid the COVID-19 pandemic as it works to ramp up its new digital banking arm.

BCA, the largest private bank in Indonesia, recorded a 91 percent annual rise in the number of mobile banking transactions to 1.29 billion, while the number of internet banking transactions increased by 24 percent year-on-year (yoy) to 740 million in the first quarter, company data show.

The total value of the transactions reached a staggering Rp 3.38 quadrillion (US$2.28 trillion), or more than 45 percent of the bank’s total transactions, almost matching the value of transactions via the bank’ branches of Rp 3.5 quadrillion.

“BCA supports the physical distancing policy during the COVID-19 pandemic through its Banking from Home campaign, in which we provide banking services through various online channels. We have seen an increase in mobile and internet banking transactions [during the period],” BCA president director Jahja Setiaatmadja said in a livestreamed press briefing on Wednesday.

Transactions via ATMs and branch offices, at the same time, were down by 1 percent and 5 percent, respectively. 

As a result, its non-interest income soared 25.5 percent yoy to Rp 5.9 trillion, while its net interest income jumped 14.1 percent to Rp 13.68 trillion during the first quarter. The bank reported that its net profit grew by 8.6 percent to Rp 6.58 trillion in this year’s first three months.

BCA is known for its technology and digital breakthroughs in Indonesia’s banking industry. It is now working to complete the acquisitions of privately-owned Rabobank International Indonesia and Bank Royal Indonesia. The latter is projected to become BCA’s digital bank, namely Bank Digital BCA, the soft launching of which is to be held in the second half.

“Bank Royal still needs [the authority’s] approval to be a digital bank, while the acquisition of Rabobank is still being completed,” he said, stressing that BCA currently had no plan to acquire other banks.

BCA concluded in 2019 its acquisition of Bank Royal for Rp 1.01 trillion in an effort to expand its digital banking business and focus on certain customer segments.

BCA reported on Wednesday that its loan disbursement grew 12.3 percent annually to Rp 612.16 trillion as of March, while third-party funds (DPK) added 16.8 percent to Rp 741.02 trillion. Its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.6 percent, slightly up by 10 basis points (bps) compared to the corresponding period last year.

Jahja admitted that his company had seen a downturn in consumer loans, as mortgages, vehicle loans, credit card and employee loans decreased, and the situation would most likely continue.

The coronavirus outbreak has disrupted Indonesia’s banking industry as various businesses were forced to shut due to slowing demand, while millions of people are out of work, slowing loan disbursement and jeopardizing credit repayments.

Financial Services Authority (OJK) data reveal that loan growth stood at 7.95 percent yoy in the first quarter, higher than the 6.08 percent recorded at the end of last year. However, no new loan demand was recorded in the period, as the growth came from the disbursement of existing credit facilities.

“It is not the right time to push for consumer credits, especially with customer’s dwindling purchasing power and a significant amount of loans being restructured recently,” Jahja said.

BCA as of mid-March has been processing loan restructuring worth between Rp 65 trillion and Rp 82.6 trillion, or 10 percent to 14 percent of its total loan portfolio, from around 72,000 debtors following the government’s stimulus to support businesspeople and consumers affected by the pandemic.

It expects the restructuring figure to increase to around 20 percent to 30 percent of its total loan in the next few months.

“BCA has relatively little loan outstanding that is directly linked to COVID-19,” Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Lee Young-jun wrote in a research note published on April 2.

“In addition, BCA revealed that it has less than 5 percent exposure on foreign exchange loans and less than 1 percent of capital in net open foreign position,” Lee said. 

BCA’s shares, traded at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) under the code BBCA, were up 6.65 percent on Thursday, handily outperforming the exchange’s main gauge, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which was up 1.61 percent.

Reserve Bank of India on Thursday imposed a penalty of Rs 5 crore on the Bank of India for non-compliance with the national bank’s previous directions.

Earlier, the RBI had found Bank of India guilty as the result of a statutory inspection with respect to its financial position as on March 31, 2017 and March, 2018. India’ national bank has now stated that the Bank of India flouted RBI’s norms surrounding risk assessment reports.

A showcause notice had been served to Bank of India by the RBI, seeking reasons why a monetary penalty should not be imposed. The bank responded, however, RBI did not find its response satisfactory.

In addition, two other banks, namely Karnataka Bank Ltd, and Saraswat Cooperative Bank have also been slapped with penalties. While Karnataka Bank Ltd faces a penalty of Rs 1.20 crore, a penalty of Rs 30 lakh has been imposed on Saraswat Cooperative Bank.

Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) aims to produce over 110,000 handwoven face masks to help limit the spread of Covid-19 in the region under its Women Eco Weavers programme in collaboration with Colorsilk.

Maybank said some 250 women weavers in Cambodia under this programme would produce hand woven face masks made of pure cotton and silk in support of easing the pressure on the demand for surgical masks.

It said the face masks are primarily reserved for medical professionals and health care workers as well as to counter the increase in price of face masks within the region.

“To date, over 15,000 handwoven masks have been produced by the weavers, whereby 12,000 have been sold and 2,000 were donated to communities in Cambodia,” it said.

In Cambodia, a single-use surgical mask could easily cost as high as US$1 per piece in a country where a large percentage of people live below the poverty line and earn between US$1.25 to US$2.00 per day.

The three-ply handwoven cotton masks can be cleaned, reused and cost a minimum of US$0.65 and the silk woven masks are priced at US$1.50 per piece.

The masks come in both plain and a striped pattern known as Kroma which is unique to the Cambodian silk-weaving heritage.

Maybank Foundation chief executive officer Shahril Azuar Jimin said amidst the difficult times, it was heartening to see the weavers doing their part to contain the spread of the virus by producing these handcrafted face masks.

“This momentous effort by them goes to show that any one be it old, young, rich or poor can do their part to help each other in times of crisis.

“It is also inspiring to see the impact of our investments in collective solutions for the communities we serve,” said Shahril.

According to Maybank, the majority of the weavers were graduates and trainees of the Maybank Women Eco-Weavers programme.

It is a Maybank Foundation flagship programme that promotes traditional textile globally, in a sustainable manner whilst creating economic independence and financial inclusion for women weavers across the Asean region.

It said the face mask initiative also provides supplementary economic opportunities for the weavers and Cambodia’s weaving communities in an effort to ensure fair pricing and protect the welfare of the people.

“From this initiative alone, the weavers are earning between US$200 and US$350 per month. The weavers are also currently receiving orders from countries such as Japan, Indonesia, the US and Taiwan,” it said.

A graduate trainee of the Maybank Women Eco-Weavers programme, Touch Eng said she used to earn less than US$30 as a farmer while others made more working at factories.

“Since I participated in the face mask project, I am thankful that I am able to earn between US$250 and US$280 and to also support my country in combating the spread of the virus,” Eng said.

经济学人智库发表报告称，新冠病毒疫情大流行改变了全球经济，各国政府需要做出巨大努力，这将导致公共开支增加，因此今年公共债务水平也将会急升。报告相信，虽然大多数发达国家将不会面临主权债务问题，但贫穷国家在债务上升且缺乏全面减债计划情况下，纵使今年未必会发生主权债违约，但中期内则可能出现。

经济学人智库发表题为《Sovereign debt crises are coming》（主权债务危机即将来临）的报告称，因新冠疫情大流行改变全球经济格局，今、明两年将不会出现增长，其预计全球GDP到2022年才可回复到疫情爆发前的水平。各国需要在财政上作出巨大努力，因财政收入减少，但在医疗保健及社会开支方面则要高得多。因此，今年的公共债务水平将会急升。

报告指出，为了压抑财政赤字，大多数发达国家政府将无法削减开支，而紧缩政策会削弱政治资本。不少经济体的公共部门规模已比2008-09年金融危机前为小，而削减医疗保健开支的可能性也不大，因为疫情大流行暴露了紧缩措施导致卫生系统承压。

报告称，尽管对大多数发达国家而言将不会面临主权债务问题，尤其是那些能以本国货币借款及具备深厚国内资本市场的国家，但并非所有国家都具备这些有利条件。从中期来看，仍会有部分发达国家有可能陷入债务危机的边缘。报告指，例如意大利及西班牙在疫情前，其财政状况已然疲弱；南欧国家则仍自多年的紧缩中恢复，且公共债务高企、人口老化和财政赤字持续。倘任何一个这些国家发生债务危机，都会对金融市场造成巨大震荡，危机并将迅速蔓延至全球。

经济学人智库表示，在此情况下，较贫穷的国家将是受影响力最严重的国家，它们的债务在过去10年急升。多边金融机构与世界上最富裕的国家联手提供实质财政支持，以助减轻低收入和新兴市场经济体的财政负担。国际货币基金组织，世界银行和其他多边开发银行亦已增加紧急资金的支持，二十国集团（G20）通过暂停要求还债提供大量财政支持。这些努力将为世界上较贫穷的国家提供短期喘息空间。

不过，报告指这些措施提供的大多数新资金将会添加到新兴经济体的资产负债表中，而G20的债务援助只是将债务延长而非撇帐。在缺乏更全面的减债计划的情况下，这将引起人们对其偿债能力的担忧。主权违约未必会在今年发生，但中期可能会在贫穷国家中出现。

日本央行周三公布的数据显示，在实施大规模的刺激经济措施之后，该行3月为止的公债持有量几乎相当于国内经济规模的90%。

日央行债券持仓规模凸显出其印钞规模有多么庞大，印钞是为了重振经济，并让通胀达成一直遥不可及的2%目标。

在3月止的财年内，日本央行持有的外币资产规模也增加近三倍，因该行扩大美元融资操作，以应对新冠病毒疫情引发的紧张市况。

根据日本央行上一财年的财报，央行截止3月的公债持仓较上年同期增长3.4%至486万亿日圆(4.5万亿美元)，大约相当于该国经济规模的90%。

继日本央行4月承诺无限量购买公债以抗击疫情冲击后，本财年的购债速度可能加快。

日本央行的获利报告还显示，央行持有的上市交易基金(ETF)潜在获利缩小至2011财年以来最低。

日本央行估算，如果日经指数跌破18,500点，其ETF持仓将产生亏损。周三收盘时日经指数报21,419.23点。

Almost every country is scrambling to save their economies and livelihood as the world stares at the possibility of slipping into a recession, which is being dubbed by many as much worse and more severe than the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. But that was the kind of recession that countries fought head on.

What was the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and how was it caused?

It was on September 15, 2018 when America’s fourth largest investment bank, Lehman Brothers’ giant Investment Bank went bust and filed for bankruptcy. The bank had total debt of $613 billion against total assets of $639 billion and 25,000 employees worldwide. The bankruptcy of Lehman is said to be the largest in the history surpassing the Worldcom’s and Enron’s.

This crisis let to the erosion of almost $10 trillion in market capitalization from global equity markets in October 2008.

In a podcast, Susan Lund of Mckinsey says that the epicenter of the global financial crisis was really the housing market. It started in the USA but it turned out that similar housing bubbles were building in other countries as well. The problem, according to him, started when housing prices stopped growing after some time and instead started declining. Then the economy fell into a recession and people lost their jobs.

This crisis pulled down the confidence in the banks across the world that included India’s then largest private lender ICICI Bank too. However, the USA was at the epicenter of this global economic crisis but impact of the crisis on India’s economy was minimal when compared to other countries.

The US government turned down the request of Lehman Brothers to bail out them as they were finding it little hard to roll over its borrowings in the markets. The Wall Street bank allowed it go bust. The failure of a systemically important financial institution with some $700 billion of liabilities sent shockwaves across the entire global financial system.

At that time, The Federal Reserve subsequently called it the worst financial crisis in global history.

Let us have a look at how countries across the world handled Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

USA         

U.S Federal Reserve began taking action and started slashing the interest rate. The interest rates were brought down to zero in 2008 from 5.25 per cent in 2007.  However, this was not the only way to minimize the impact of recession. In February 2008, President George W Bush signed the Economic Stimulus into Law. The US President also approved the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in October 2008. TARP provided $700 billion in funds to purchase the assets of struggling company.

Germany

Germany in October 2008 promised to guarantee all private bank a/cs worth 568 billion euro and the government approved a plan to inject 500 billion Euros into credit market. The government also injected 10 billion euros taking a 25 per cent stake in country’s second largest lender.

France

French President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged 360 billion euros to banks and also hosted an emergency global financial crisis summit in Paris. Also the government announced it would inject 10.5 billion euros into the France’s six largest banks.

Italy

Italy also went on the same path and provided 40 billion euros in T-bills to banks to refinance inferior assets. Foreign trade institute offered 100 million euros to make businessmen more competitive. Country hosted a meeting of G8 countries to discuss economic recovery.

Japan

The Asian economic power brought down the interest rates to nominal level to increase the liquidity in the market and the government also announced a slew of packages worth $16.7 billion and also injected $1.2 billion into regional banks and many more.

India

Finance Ministers P Chidambaram and planning commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia adopted three pronged strategy that ensured enough liquidity in market, no run on banks and no bank collapse resulting from asset liability mismatch. The day when Lehman collapsed, Indian government tried to insulate its Indian subsidiaries. The RBI almost halved the repo rate within six months of Lehman’s collapse. The government announced Rs 40000 crore stimulus packages and cut excise duties on products.

此前在外汇市场上一同被视为“安全货币”的日元和瑞郎（瑞士法郎）作为投资对象正在出现分化。过去在投资者面临避险局面时，往往是日元被极端炒高，但近期瑞郎的购入倾向更为明显。从代表货币综合性价值的指数在雷曼危机后的走势来看，日元处于下跌一成的水平，而瑞郎则是上涨三成。安全货币会形成“瑞郎独大”的局面吗？

瑞郎兑欧元的行情在始于5月11日一周的周末升至1欧元=1.05瑞郎附近，创下2015年7月以来近5年的新高。新冠病毒疫情继续在欧洲蔓延，避险情绪升温的投资者纷纷买入瑞郎。进入5月18日的一周后虽然也出现过少数卖出瑞郎的情况，但依旧处于较高水平。

从代表货币综合性价值的有效汇率指标“日经货币指数”来看，瑞郎在105左右，一年时间上升7%。与雷曼危机后的2008年底相比上涨3成。

相比之下，日元的货币指数在120左右，尽管也比一年前上涨5%，但瑞郎的涨幅更大。如果与2008年底相比，日元则下跌8%，与瑞郎形成显著差异。在日本银行（央行）2013年开始实施的超级量化宽松后，日元急剧贬值，随后尽管有涨有跌，但基本上维持低于雷曼危机时的水平。

日元和瑞郎在外汇市场上均被视为安全货币，为何会出现如此大差异？

原因之一在于两国贸易收支的差异。瑞士2019年贸易收支为373亿瑞郎（约合人民币2743亿元）的顺差，创历史新高。在国内生产总值（GDP）中的占比约6%，最近10年几乎翻了一番。由于存在贸易盈余，出口企业需要把赚取的外汇兑换成本国货币，这就容易让本国货币升值。

日本自3·11东日本大地震后，由于核电站关停，贸易收支大幅恶化，2019年为1.6万亿日元（约合人民币1063亿元）的逆差。花旗证券的高岛修认为“瑞郎升值、日元贬值的压力较大”。

另一方面，由于全球性的降息，日元也变得不再那么受到追捧。雷曼危机前，主要国家的长期利率全都超过4%，唯有日本在1%的水平上，比瑞士还低。为此，筹措低利率的日元、投资高利率货币来赚取利润的“日元套利交易”非常盛行。雷曼危机后出现回购日元的动向，推动日元升值，行情一度超过1美元=100日元的水平。

近年来，随着各国央行的金融宽松，出现了全球性的降息局面。日元套利交易也不断降温，“即使在新冠疫情扩大引发的避险局面下，日元也并未极端走高”（摩根大通银行的佐佐木融）。Gaitame.Com研究所的神田卓也表示“日元作为避险货币的地位正在动摇”。

神田认为“瑞郎走高趋势眼下还会持续”。欧洲的政治局势在应对新冠疫情问题上明显步调不统一，投资者很容易产生避险倾向。

但作为安全货币的瑞郎也存在价格剧烈波动的风险。瑞士国家银行（央行）为抑制瑞郎过度升值而正在实施汇市干预，但被特朗普政府批评为“操纵货币贬值”，考虑将其认定为汇率操纵国。2015年1月瑞士国家银行突然停止汇市干预，瑞郎行情一度出现暴涨，许多日本个人投资者由于外汇保证金（FX）交易而亏损。市场上也出现了许多担心可能再次发生这种状况的警惕声。

Myanmar is planning to take a US$60 million loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to establish a Credit Guarantee Corporation (CGC), U Maung Maung Win, the Deputy Minister for the Ministry of Planning, Finance, and Industry, said in Parliament on May 21. The proposal was sent by the President. 

U Maung Maung Win said small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Myanmar lack a credit guarantee system which limits the amount of unsecured loans the banks are able to extend to an SME.

In Myanmar, 98pc of the economy comprises SMEs, while 95pc of the workforce is employed by this sector, according to government data. 

Yet, bank lending for business in Myanmar comprises just 37 percent of GDP, which is low compared to other countries in the region. “Establishing the CGC will help solve the problem of SMEs having insufficient collateral and documentation, which prevents them from getting a loan from the banks,” he said. 

The ADB will extend the loan at an interest rate of 1pc per year during a grace period of eight years, and 1.5pc per year during the repayment period over the next 24 years. 

The CGC will be formed in three stages. Under the first and second stages, to be complete before the end of the year, a wholly-owned CGC will be established by the government utilising the ADB loan. The third stage will see the CGC sign agreements with financial institutions to establish the necessary financial systems required. This will be implemented between 2021 and 2025.

Meanwhile, Myanmar will also receive some $1.8 billion in financial support for development projects in the country from the ADB, according to the Ministry of Investment and Foreign Economic Relations (MIFER). 

This will include a $1.7 billion concessional loan and a grant of $70 million to build infrastructure for transport and energy as well as for education, healthcare and urban and rural development, said U Than Aung Kyaw, Director General of the Foreign Economic Relations Department under MIFER. 

This aligns with the ADB’s business plan for Myanmar over the next two years, released on May 18, as well as the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan. It also comes on the heels of the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework for Myanmar for the next three years. The World Bank last month fast-tracked a US$50 million loan to Myanmar to help with the country’s COVID-19 response. 

During 2013–2019, ADB extended funds totalling $2.4 billion to support  development in Myanmar.

1. 主要当地银行

• 星展银行（DBS） – 成立于1968年，目前是新加坡和东南亚最大的银行（以资产衡量）。
• 华侨银行（OCBC） – 成立于1912年，是新加坡-马来西亚市场最大的金融机构之一，总资产达1,840亿新元。
• 大华银行（UOB） – 成立于1935年，在新加坡是领先的银行，在亚太区拥有强大的影响力。

 
2. 主要外资银行

• 汇丰银行（HSBC） – 汇丰银行于1877年12月在新加坡首次开业。汇丰银行是新加坡政府证券市场批准的主要交易商（Primary Dealer）和经过批准的债券中介机构（ABI）。
• 渣打银行 – 新加坡渣打银行于1859年开始运营，是新加坡境内最大的境外机构托管银行
• ABN-AMRO Singapore – Owned by RBS, Santander and the Dutch government, ABN AMRO is one of the reputable foreign banks in Singapore。
• 荷兰银行（ABN-AMRO ）- 由苏格兰皇家银行（RBS）、桑坦德银行和荷兰政府拥有。荷兰银行是新加坡着名的外资银行之一。
• 马银行（Maybank） – 马银行于1960年开始在新加坡营运，是一家持牌的商业银行，目前是东盟五大银行之一，并且在新加坡是全面银行（QFB）。
• 法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas） – 法国巴黎银行自1968年在新加坡开业，并于1999年获得QFB资格。新加坡的法国巴黎银行有良好声誉，是该集团的企业及投资银行，以及私人银行业务的区域中心。
• 花旗银行（Citibank） – 新加坡的花旗银行于1902年开业，是在新加坡营运的第一家美国银行。花旗银行于1999年获得全面银行（QFB）执照，是新加坡获得全面银行资格的首四家外资银行之一。