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中国最高人民法院周四宣布，将一年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）的四倍为标准，确定民间借贷利率的司法保护上限，较原有的24%和36%的相关规定大幅下降。

若以2020年7月20日发布的一年期贷款市场报价利率3.85%的四倍计算，民间借贷利率的司法保护上限为15.4%，相较于过去的24%和36%明显大幅度下降。

最高法解释称，大幅降低民间借贷利率的司法保护上限，可降低中小微企业的融资成本，引导整体市场利率下行，是当前恢复经济和保市场主体的重要举措；同时，也可以规范民间借贷活动并推动利率市场化。此外，此举也是统一司法裁判标准的现实需要。

不少金融机构人士对此次最高法下调利率保护上限颇感担忧，因此前其设计贷款产品时，通常以24%和36%作为利率上限；若未来需要将利率上限下压至四倍一年期LPR，轻则利润严重受损，重则机构面临灭顶之灾。

据中国最高法2015年8月出台的民间借贷相关司法解释，对借贷双方约定的利率未超过年利率24%，出借人请求借款人按照约定的利率支付利息的，人民法院应予支持；超过36%的部分则被判定为无效，出借人需退还超出部分的利息。

这两条线也划分出了三个区域，即“两线三区”，36%为无效区，24%为司法保护区，以及自然债务区，也就是24%-36%期间。

若继续遵守上限，则冲击巨大

一位长期关注信贷资产证券化的券商分析师表示，若以15.4%为标准，对商业银行而言，目前信用卡分期业务有部分在超标的边缘游走，稍微整改后可以继续做；信用卡现金贷类的业务，将可能“直接做不了或者需要大幅降价”；大额现金贷则“一直价格不高，可以接着做”。

该分析师续称，持牌消费金融公司里，尽管有部分公司的贷款利率没有那么高，但“基本上要凉掉一半”。

“如果沿用这个标准，基本上只有银行、部分消费金融公司和绝对头部的互联网小贷能合规，其他公司，甚至包括上市公司，基本上全部都要凉。”该分析师说。

一位中型金融科技平台信贷业务负责人亦表示，在与其合作的金融机构中，银行的放贷利率通常会设定在24%以内，信托公司、消费金融公司出于覆盖坏账和保证利润的需要，主要在24%-36%的区间游走。

“不会超过36%，但低于24%可能就没钱赚了。”该人士说。

近期中国大型金融机构及互联网巨头纷纷入局消费金融令市场颇为关注。中国银行业协会最新发布的报告显示，消费金融公司整体面临较大风险压力；而在需求潜力趋于下降和供给规模不断扩大的作用下，消费金融市场将由蓝海逐渐转入红海市场，市场竞争程度将加剧。

该份名为“中国消费金融公司发展报告（2020）”发布数据显示，从风险成本的直接反应指标不良率数据来看，2019年消费金融公司平均不良贷款率为2.63%，略高于信用卡的平均不良水平，较2018年有小幅下降0.11个百分点。

从不良率的中位数来看，2019年为2.03%，较2018年有小幅上升0.1个百分点。

“不良率的中位数与平均数相差较大，也在一定程度上反映了各家机构的风险成本的差异，部分机构的风险成本压力尤甚。”报告称。

报告称，消费金融公司不断加大资产的管理与处置力度，积极化解风险。截至报告发布前，已有近半数的机构将资产划入不良的标准从逾期90天调整至60天，行业平均拨备覆盖率提升至186.34%。

**竞争加剧，蓝海变红海**

对于消费金融行业未来的发展，报告认为其需求潜力值得关注。受新冠肺炎影响，虽然短期压制消费的欲望将逐步释放，但其主要客群–年轻群体更容易因疫情影响其就业和收入，消费金融需求可能在疫情之后出现短期快速增长。

但长期看，中国人口出生率和年轻人口的规模逐步下降的趋势难以逆转，消费金融主体客群规模将趋于下降，消费金融的长期需求潜力值得高度关注。

同时，现有的供给主体在继续扩大。除了消费金融公司、商业银行、小额贷款公司等金融机构之外，还包括网络小贷公司、互联网借贷以及大型互联网企业等主体的参与。

近年来，不断传出有新资本入股或新设消费金融公司。一方面，互联网公司积极参与消费金融公司，比如，新浪微博通过旗下独立注册公司入股包银消费金融公司、百度(BIDU.O)通过旗下度小满科技公司入股哈银消费金融公司、玖富通过旗下科技子公司入股湖北消费金融公司、小米(1810.HK)参与新设消费金融公司（已于2020年5月开业）。

另一方面，大型传统金融机构新设消费金融公司，如平安集团(2318.HK)(601318.SS)新设消费金融公司（已于2020年4月开业），建设银行(601939.SS)(0939.HK)计划投资百亿筹建消费金融公司等新闻也层出不穷。

近日，光大银行(601818.SS)发布公告称，其控股子公司–北京阳光消费金融正式开业；而据媒体报导，蚂蚁集团将与南洋商业银行、北大千方科技(002373.SZ)、宁德时代(300750.SZ)组建一家消费金融公司。

“在消费金融需求潜力逐渐下降和供给规模逐渐扩大的长期趋势下，消费金融市场从供给不足的卖方市场逐步转向供求平衡，甚至出现供给过剩的买方市场，由蓝海市场逐渐转入红海市场。”报告称。

数据显示，截至2019年末，消费金融公司资产规模达4,988.07亿元，同比增长28.67%；贷款余额4,722.93亿元，较上年增长30.5%。

自第二次世界大战后，黄金价格从1968年的每盎司35美元涨到现在的2030美元区间，中间有过两次可以跟目前市道相提并论的“大牛市”，分别在1980年1月和2011年9月触顶。

第一次狂欢

从1968年3月到1980年1月，黄金价格12年涨了23倍。

这一轮大牛市的形成，始于美元与黄金脱钩。二战结束后建立的布雷顿森林体系将黄金与美元以每盎司35美元的价格挂钩，其后十多年不存在黄金交易市场，但期间美元几次遭遇危机，动摇了体系的根基。

1971年8月，美国前总统尼克松发表电视讲话，宣布美元和黄金脱钩，布雷顿森林体系终结。黄金恢复自由身，在市场交易，价格随行就市。

然后，1972年，伦敦金从每盎司46美元涨到64美元，1973年冲破100美元，1979年涨到500美元。

1979年下半年开始的六个月，伦敦金暴涨180%，1980年1月20日创历史新高，每盎司850美元。

经过一番干预和调整， 2月22日，金价重挫145美元，宣告现代历史上首次黄金大牛市结束。

第二次狂欢

第一轮大牛市过后，黄金市场进入相对低迷、平静的时期，一直到2008年。

从2005年开始，金价开始强劲攀升；当时美国次贷危机还在酝酿，但经济危机的信号则比比皆是。

2008年，美国次贷危机爆发，触发全球金融危机，然后升级为世界经济危机。“性喜乱世”的黄金在恐慌、避险心里和各国量化宽松政策等多种因素推动下，迅速摆脱危机初期被抛售的压力，扶摇直上。

金融危机直接把大批投资资金驱赶到黄金这个避风港。

危机从美国扩散到全世界，美国国债被降级，欧元区陷入困境，希腊爆发债务危机，直接冲击欧元的稳定。欧元区外的英国则出现社会动荡，各地出现骚乱。

各国央行量化宽松刺激经济，通胀抬头，进一步提升了黄金作为避险、对冲工具的价值。金价大涨，从2010年以来一直保持在1100美元以上。

2011年9月6日，黄金现货交易价突破1920美元价位，创历史新高。

此前，各国央行都在积极购买黄金，调整储备资产结构；民间珠宝需求强劲，也为金价冲顶助了一臂之力。

第三次狂欢

从2012年开始，黄金持续低迷长达6年，到2018年出现转机。2020年，历史仿佛重演。

黄金喜欢乱世、坏消息，不是吗？

全球经济复苏缓慢、利率不断探底负值区域、中美交恶，“脱钩”和“新冷战”恐惧日益真实、国际局势暗潮涌动，然后2019年底爆发了新冠肺炎疫情，防疫封锁重创各国经济，随之而来的是央行大幅度放水，刺激经济重启。

世界黄金协会市场信息咨询部的斯特里特（Louise Street）在一则通讯中指出：“新冠疫情为黄金投资创造了一场完美风暴。”

由于前所未有的大量流动性注入和创纪录的低利率，黄金投资成本大大降低，全球黄金ETF基金涌入，黄金价格随之飙升，屡创新高。

美联储“上不封顶”的量化宽松和一个月一万亿美元新增债务的财政扩张速度，使得市场难以预测未来走势，导致黄金价格飙升。

各国债务庞大，10年内很难真正改观，而通胀则明显呈长期上升趋势，零利率和负利率仍将持续，美元疲软，因此黄金成了成本低而收益相对较高的投资资产，不但目前收益比企业和政府债券高，长期而言也一样。金价飙升，更助燃了“害怕错过”（FOMO）盛宴狂欢的投机心理。

Skepticism is growing against peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, a method of debt financing via online platform, Tuesday, amid a slew of fraud allegations that the new financial service providers exploited the lack of reliable appraisal data needed for ensuring transparent and accountable transactions.

A lack of accountability of creators and promoters of the new lending will lead to immense investor losses, tainting the once-touted “innovative” method of borrowing between individuals and companies on a digital platform bypassing traditional intermediary banks.

Many investors are expected to incur losses misled by the much-hyped “near-term, high-yield” investment that promised up to 15 percent in annual returns with less than 2 percent delinquency ratio, given the principal and interest paid on initial investment of previous investors were pulled from a group of new investors.

Three key officials at Pop Funding, a P2P lender whose collateral was stockpiles of goods to be sold on TV shopping channels, were indicted with physical detention for fraud, July 17.

Prosecutors at Suwon District Office said the three defrauded 156 investors of 55.1 billion ($45.9 million) in funds pooled by six asset management firms by forging appraisal documents for collateral.

The lender allegedly continued to attract new investors to offset 14.5 billion won in losses incurred until early 2018 due to mismanagement, mostly by transferring funds from new investors to pay previous ones the principal and interest on products that neared maturity.

The lender-created financial product was repackaged and sold to about 23,000 investors, reporting sales of 166.8 billion won. The amount yet to be redeemed stands at 105.9 billion won, over 63 percent of the total.

On a similar allegation, police questioned the head of Nexrich Holdings, largest shareholder of Nexfun, a P2P lender that lent money to used car buyers with the purchased car as collateral, July 9. Its office in southern Seoul was searched the same day.

Police said the company head managed to record some 25.1 billion won in lending, mostly by stressing that investors can take the collateral as a backup, a much safer investment than credit-based lending.

Yet of the 1,809 financial products sold, only two were collateral-backed lending worth 43 million won. The remaining amount was all credit-based loans.

The lender laid off all of its workers and shut down business following the search, saying it will not be able to return funds to investors.

The slew of incidents bode ill for the industry at large given a rapid expansion over the past few years.

According to Korea Peer-to-Peer Financial Investor Association, the movable property market in Korea quadrupled to 1.1 trillion won as of June from 259 billion won in December 2018.

The explosive expansion was bolstered by the 2015 policy initiative of the Financial Services Commission (FSC).

Yet the lender’s products have since been subject to little scrutiny as no data remains available to verify product liability other than that submitted by the lenders.

According to MIDRATE, a P2P lending data service provider, some 408 billion won of about 2.4 trillion won P2P-pulled funds remains unreturned despite investors’ redemption request, pushing the delinquency ratio to 16.1 percent, about triple the 5.5 percent rate of 2017.

中国银保监会周五发布《商业银行互联网贷款管理暂行办法》，与征求意见稿相比，主要的变化是增加了“商业银行不得因引入担保增信放松对贷款质量管控”要求，以强化商业银行主体责任，防止商业银行风险管理“空心化”。

中国银保监会同步发布的答记者问并称，在风险管理方面，考虑到商业银行互联网贷款多维度、多要素判断借款人信用状况特征，采纳相关机构反馈意见，将第二十条“税务、社会保险基金、住房公积金信息”不作为强制性信用状况判断要素。

银保监会要求，地方法人银行应当坚守发展定位，在开展互联网贷款业务时主要服务当地客户。《办法》暂未对地方法人银行开展跨区互联网贷款业务设置统一的定量指标进行限制，但地方法人银行应结合自身风控能力审慎开展此类业务，并确保有效识别和监测跨区互联网贷款业务开展情况。

此外，部分无实体经营网点，业务主要在线上开展的银行不受《办法》关于跨区经营的限制。

Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer Eugene Tarzimanov said bank downgrades so far this year in Asean and India had been driven by the latter’s banks, following the downgrade of the sovereign in June.

“That said, the majority of the banks in the region are well-positioned at their ratings, despite a higher share of negative outlooks on bank ratings,” Tarzimanov said in a report today.

Moody’s expects asset quality and profitability to deteriorate from good levels in 2019 across most banking systems, with Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines having the best asset quality with nonperforming loans below two per cent.

It said while government support measures would offset some of the pressure on banks, they would not fully eliminate the negative impact.

Despite the challenging outlook, the majority of banks are adequately capitalised, and Moody’s expects their funding and liquidity to remain sound and stable in 2020-21.

Citing an example, the firm said regulators in India, Thailand and Vietnam had restricted bank dividends, a credit positive for banks, while the largest banks would continue to benefit from deposit inflows as they were seen as safe-heavens in times of stress.

Moody’s expects the gross domestic product of most Asean economies and India to contract this year and gradually recover in 2021.

The relaxation of lockdowns and resumption of economic activity will be key factors supporting the recovery.

一项对900家公司进行的新研究估计，全球各地公司2020年新增债务将多达1万亿美元，以因应新冠疫情。

这种前所未有的增长将推动全球公司债务总额跳升12%，至9.3万亿美元左右，再加上多年的债务累积，全球负债最高的公司债务规模相当于很多中等国家债务水平。

去年全球公司债亦大幅上升8%，受并购、以及为进行股票回购和支付股息的企业融资行为推动。但今年债务大增的原因完全不同–因疫情侵蚀获利而采取保护措施。

“疫情改变了一切，”对新公司债指数进行分析的公司–Janus Henderson的投资组合经理Seth Meyer表示，“现在是要节约资本和强化资产负债表。”

企业在1-5月间从债券市场筹资3,840亿美元，Meyer估计，近几周风险较高、评级较低的“高收益率”公司债发行量创下新的记录。

3月信贷市场已经对最受信任公司之外的公司关闭，但美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)、欧洲央行和日本央行等央行的紧急公司债购买计划促使信贷市场再次敞开大门。

这个新债券指数中包括的公司的负债总额已经较2014年增加40%，债务增长速度远超过获利增长。

这900家公司的税前获利总计增加9.1%至2.3万亿美元。2019年衡量债务相对于股本的比率达到创纪录的59%，利息支付占获利的比率也升至新高。

美国企业的公司债规模为3.9万亿美元，几乎是全球规模的一半，而且过去五年来成长速度傲视瑞士外的任何主要经济体。瑞士曾有一波重大并购交易。

德国公司债规模为7,620亿美元，位居第二高。全球负债最高的企业中，德国还包办了三家，其中大众汽车(福斯汽车, Volkswagen)(VOWG.DE)负债1,920亿美元，与南非或匈牙利等国家不相上下，不过该公司的债务是因汽车融资部门而扩大。

相比之下，在该新债券指数所含企业中，有四分之一的企业没有任何负债，有一些企业拥有庞大的现金储备。其中最大一笔是Alphabet(GOOGL.O)的1,040亿美元。

Meyer表示，信贷市场还需一段时间才能恢复至新冠疫情前的情况，目前疫情的威胁，尤其是美国近来病例数激增，仍是投资者的心中大患。

日本央行连续两季全面下修国内九个地区的经济评估，为2008年雷曼兄弟倒闭以来首见，印证日本经济衰退可能加深的迹象。

央行此举凸显出新冠疫情对日本经济的伤害程度。

在周四公布的季度报告中，日本央行对多数地区的看法比三个月前更加悲观，因近期数据显示制造产出、消费及资本支出一片疲软。

“随着新冠疫情导致全球汽车销售大跌，出口进一步萎缩，”日本南部一运输设备业者在报告中表示。

这份7月发布的报告称，日本所有九个地区的经济都因新冠疫情而“正在恶化”或处于“严峻状况”。

日本央行下周将公布利率决议，预计不会进一步宽松货币政策，以评估3月和4月部署刺激措施的效果。

央行总裁黑田东彦在央行地区分行经理季度会议上发表讲话时说，随着日本经济恶化，消费者物价料将暂时保持下跌，尽管他坚持日本央行的乐观展望。

“随着疫情影响消退，以及在积压需求…宽松的货币环境以及政府刺激方案的支撑下，日本经济预计将有所改善，”黑田东彦说。

日本在第一季陷入经济衰退，分析人士预计，疫情将使经济在第二季大幅收缩20%以上。

New York state financial regulators said Tuesday that they have slapped Deutsche Bank with a $150 million penalty “for significant compliance failures” in the bank’s dealings with accused child sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, a now-dead investor, as well as with two client banks.

The New York State Department of Financial Services said that Deutsche Bank, which agreed to the payment under a consent order, “failed to properly monitor account activity conducted on behalf of the registered sex offender despite ample” public information about Mr. Epstein’s earlier criminal misconduct.

The big settlement comes days after Epstein’s alleged procurer, Ghislaine Maxwell, was arrested on federal charges that accuse her of helping him get access to and groom underage girls so he could sexually abuse them.

The state said it was the first enforcement action by a regulator against a financial institution for dealings with Epstein.

The consent order covers Deutsche Bank’s relationship with Epstein, and correspondent banking relationships with Danske Bank Estonia and FBME Bank.

Deutsche Bank maintained a relationship Epstein, as well as with “related individuals and entities from August 2013 until December 2018,” when the bank ended its dealings with him after the Miami Herald published a series of stories about a federal nonprosecution deal that Epstein obtained in 2008 in Florida. Over time, the German company handled more than 40 accounts related to Epstein and related people and entities.

The Financial Services Department said that because of the bank’s oversight failure with Epstein, the “bank processed hundreds of transactions totaling millions of dollars that, at the very least, should have prompted additional scrutiny in light of Mr. Epstein’s history.”

Those transactions include payments to people who were publicly alleged to have been Epstein’s co-conspirators in sexually abusing young women, and settlements totaling more than $7 million and payments to law firms of more than $6 million “for what appear to have been the legal expenses of Mr. Epstein and his co-conspirators,” the department said.

Other payments were made “to Russian models, payments for women’s school tuition, hotel and rent expenses, and (consistent with public allegations of prior wrongdoing) payments directly to numerous women with Eastern European surnames,” according to the department.

Also noted were Epstein’s “periodic suspicious cash withdrawals — in total, more than $800,000 over approximately four years,” the department said.

All of these transactions occurred in the months and years after August 2013, when, in preparation for Epstein’s accounts being shifted to Deutsche Bank, a junior relationship coordinator on the Epstein account prepared a memorandum for a relationship manager at the bank to be sent to the bank’s then co-head of the wealth management Americas group and the chief operating officer of the wealth management Americas unit, the consent order notes.

That memo contained information about Epstein’s prior state sex crime case in Florida, noting he was charged with soliciting an underage prostitute in 2007, that he served 13 months of his 18-month sentence, and that Epstein was accused of paying young women for massages in his Florida home, the consent order said.

“It also highlights that Mr. Epstein was involved in 17 out-of-court civil settlements related to his conduct in the 2007 conviction,” the consent order said of the memo.

In an email to the two bank executives who included the memorandum as an attachment, the relationship manager “noted how lucrative the relationship could be, stating ”[e]stimated flows of $100-300 [million] overtime [SIC] (possibly more)w/ revenue of $2-4 million annually over time,” the consent order said.

“In the same email, [the bank’s relationship manager] proposed that all Epstein-related accounts be for ‘entities’ affiliated with Mr. Epstein, ‘not personal accounts,’” the consent order noted.

The order noted that banks are required to have anti-money laundering controls in place, and that they are also required to monitor their customers to prevent them from facilitating criminal activity.

A Deutsche Bank spokesman said, “We acknowledge our error of onboarding Epstein in 2013 and the weaknesses in our processes, and have learnt from our mistakes and shortcomings.”

The spokesman said that immediately after Epstein’s arrest on child sex trafficking charges in July 2019, the bank “contacted law enforcement and offered our full assistance with their investigation.”

We have been fully transparent and have addressed these matters with our regulator, adjusted our risk tolerance and systematically tackled the issues,” the spokesman said.

Epstein, 66, died last August in a federal jail in Manhattan from what authorities ruled was a suicide by hanging after being denied bail in his criminal case, where he was charged with child sex trafficking and conspiracy to commit child sex trafficking.

The multimillionaire investor was a former friend of Presidents Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, as well as of Britain’s Prince Andrew.

Deutsche Bank has reportedly loaned more than $2.5 billion to projects run by Trump’s company, the Trump Organization. The Supreme Court currently is considering arguments in case in which Trump has sued to block two House of Representatives Committees from getting financial records related to the president and related entities from Deutsche Bank pursuant to a subpoena.