分类： 未分类

第一章
Frank Algernon Cowperwood 出生的费城是一座拥有二十五万人口的城市。它坐落着漂亮的公园、著名的建筑，充满了历史记忆。我们和他后来知道的许多东西当时并不存在——电报、电话、快递公司、远洋轮船、城市投递邮件。没有邮票或挂号信。电车还没有到。取而代之的是公共汽车，为了长途旅行，缓慢发展的铁路系统仍然主要由运河相连。

Cowperwood 的父亲在 Frank 出生时是一名银行职员，但十年后，当这个男孩已经开始变得非常理智、充满活力地看待这个世界时，Henry Worthington Cowperwood 先生却因为银行行长的去世结果，他领先于其他军官，继承了升职的出纳员腾出的位置，对他来说，每年有 3500 美元的丰厚薪水。他立刻决定，正如他高兴地告诉他的妻子，把他的家人从 Buttonwood 街 21 号搬到新市场街 124 号，一个更好的社区，那里有一栋漂亮的三层楼高的砖房，而不是他们现在的两层——传说中的住所。有可能有一天他们会做出更好的东西，但目前这已经足够了。他万分感激。

亨利·沃辛顿·考珀伍德 (Henry Worthington Cowperwood) 是一个只相信他所看到的并且满足于做他自己的人——一个银行家，或者一个有前途的人。此时的他是个举足轻重的人物——高大、瘦削、善于审问、善于办事——留着漂亮、光滑、剪得很短的侧胡须，几乎长到耳朵的下垂处。他的上唇光滑，长得奇异，长而直的鼻子和尖尖的下巴。他的眉毛浓密，衬托出模糊的灰绿色眼睛，头发短而光滑，分开得很好。他总是穿着礼服大衣——那时候金融界很流行——戴着高礼帽。他保持双手和指甲一尘不染。他的举止可以说是严厉的，但实际上与其说是严肃，不如说是有教养。

他雄心勃勃地想在社会和经济上取得成功，因此他非常注意与谁交谈或与谁交谈。他害怕表达狂热或不受欢迎的政治或社会观点，正如他害怕被人视为邪恶人物一样，尽管他确实没有任何具有重大政治意义的观点可以表达。他既不反对也不支持奴隶制，尽管空气中弥漫着废奴情绪及其反对情绪。他真诚地相信，如果一个人只有资本和那种奇特的东西，一种有吸引力的个性——赢得他人信任的能力，那么巨大的财富就可以从铁路中获得。他确信安德鲁·杰克逊反对尼古拉斯·比德尔和合众国银行是完全错误的，这是当时最重要的问题之一；他很担心，他很可能会，到处漂浮并不断流入他的银行的野猫钱的完美风暴——当然是打折的，然后再次发放给焦急的借款人以获利。他的银行是费城第三国民银行，位于整个费城乃至当时几乎所有国家金融中心的中心——第三街——其所有者经营经纪业务作为副业。在那些日子里，无论大小，国有银行都在肆虐，几乎没有对不安全和未知资产的监管发行票据，并以惊人的速度倒闭和停业；了解所有这些是考珀伍德先生担任职务的重要要求。于是，他变成了小心之魂。不幸的是，对他来说，他在很大程度上缺乏在任何领域脱颖而出所必需的两样东西——魅力和远见。他注定不会成为一位伟大的金融家，尽管他被认为是一位相当成功的金融家。

考珀伍德夫人具有宗教气质——一个身材矮小的女人，浅棕色的头发和清澈的棕色眼睛，在她那个时代非常迷人，但变得相当古板和实事求是，倾向于非常认真地对待三个儿子和一个女儿的母性关怀。前者由最年长的弗兰克担任队长，这让她非常烦恼，因为他们总是在城市的不同地方进行探险，可能会和坏男孩混在一起，看到和听到他们不应该看到或听到的东西听到。

弗兰克·考珀伍德 (Frank Cowperwood) 年仅十岁，就已是天生的领导者。在他就读的走读学校，以及后来在中央高中，他被认为是一个在任何情况下都可以毫无疑问地相信常识的人。他是一个坚强的年轻人，勇敢而勇敢。从一开始，他就想了解经济和政治。他对书一点都不感兴趣。他是一个干净、健壮、身材匀称的男孩，有一张明亮、轮廓分明、锐利的脸。大而清晰的灰色眼睛；宽额头；短而刚毛的深棕色头发。他有一种敏锐、敏捷、自给自足的态度，总是带着对明智答复的强烈渴望提出问题。他从不感到疼痛，吃得津津有味，用铁杖统治他的兄弟们。“加油，乔！” “快点，埃德！” 这些命令的发出并不粗暴，但总是以肯定的方式，乔和埃德来了。他们从一开始就将弗兰克视为大师，他们热切地倾听他所说的话。

他一直在思考，思考——一个事实和另一个事实一样让他感到惊讶——因为他想不通他进入的这个东西——这个生活——是如何组织起来的。这些人是怎么来到这个世界上的？他们来这里做什么？到底是谁先开始的？他的母亲给他讲了亚当和夏娃的故事，但他不相信。离他家不远的地方有一个鱼市，他去河岸看望父亲，或者放学后带兄弟们去探险，他喜欢在一个鱼缸前看一眼某个鱼缸。存放特拉华湾渔民带来的奇怪海洋生物标本的商店。有一次他在那里看到了一匹海马——只是一种看起来有点像马的奇怪的小海洋动物——还有一次他看到了本杰明·富兰克林的发现所解释的电鳗。有一天，他看到鱼缸里放了一只鱿鱼和一只龙虾，而与它们有关的是一场悲剧的见证，这场悲剧伴随了他一生，并在理智上大大澄清了一切。从懒惰的旁观者的谈话中可以看出，龙虾没有得到任何食物，因为鱿鱼被认为是他合法的猎物。他躺在黄色沙滩上透明玻璃缸的底部，显然什么也看不见——你无法分辨他那双圆珠状的黑色纽扣眼睛是从哪个方向看的——但显然它们从未离开过鱿鱼的身体。后者，质地苍白，蜡质，看起来很像猪油或玉，以鱼雷的方式移动；但他的一举一动显然都没有离开敌人的眼睛，因为他身体的一小部分逐渐消失，被追捕者无情的利爪折断。龙虾会像弹射器一样跳到乌贼显然在做梦的地方，而乌贼非常警觉，会飞奔而去，同时射出一团墨水，然后消失在后面。然而，它并不总是完全成功。它的身体或尾巴的一小部分经常留在下方怪物的爪子中。年轻的考珀伍德被这出戏迷住了，每天都来看。

一天早上，他站在水箱前，鼻子几乎贴在玻璃上。鱿鱼只剩下一部分了，他的墨囊比以往任何时候都空了。在水箱的角落里坐着龙虾，显然是蓄势待发。

男孩尽可能地待在那里，痛苦的挣扎让他着迷。现在，也许，或者在一个小时或一天之后，鱿鱼可能会死，被龙虾杀死，而龙虾会吃掉它。他又看了看角落里那台绿铜色的毁灭引擎，想知道这会是什么时候。今晚，也许吧。他今晚会回来。

那天晚上他回来了，瞧！预期发生了。坦克周围有一小群人。龙虾在角落里。在他面前是被切成两半并被部分吞噬的鱿鱼。

“他终于抓住了他，”一位旁观者说。“一个小时前我就站在这里，他跳起来抓住了他。鱿鱼太累了。他不够快。他确实备份了，但他计算的那只龙虾是这样做的。他琢磨自己的动作已经很久了。他今天得到了他。

弗兰克只是瞪着眼睛。可惜他错过了这个。当他凝视着乌贼被杀死时，一丝丝对乌贼的悲伤涌上心头。然后他注视着胜利者。

“我想这就是它必须的方式，”他自言自语道。“那只鱿鱼不够快。” 他想通了。

“乌贼无法杀死龙虾——他没有武器。龙虾可以杀死鱿鱼——他全副武装。乌贼没有什么可吃的。龙虾以鱿鱼为食。结果如何？还能是什么呢？他没有机会，”他小跑回家时最后总结道。

这件事给他留下了深刻的印象。它粗暴地回答了过去一直困扰着他的谜语：“生活是如何安排的？” 万物相生——仅此而已。龙虾以鱿鱼和其他东西为生。什么以龙虾为食？当然是男人！当然，就是这样！什么住在男人身上？他问自己。是其他男人吗？野生动物以人为生。还有印第安人和食人族。有些人死于风暴和事故。他不太确定男人靠男人生活。但是男人确实互相残杀。战争、街头斗殴和暴徒怎么样？他曾经见过一群暴民。当他从学校回家时，它袭击了公共分类帐大楼。他的父亲解释了原因。这是关于奴隶的。就是这样！当然，男人靠男人生活。看看奴隶。他们是男人。这就是这些天所有这些兴奋的原因。男人杀其他男人——黑人。

他回家时对自己的解决方案感到非常满意。

“母亲！” 当他走进屋子时，他惊呼道，“他终于抓住了他！”

“抓到谁了？什么得到什么？她惊奇地问道。“去洗手。”

“为什么，那只龙虾吃了我前几天告诉你和爸爸的鱿鱼。”

“嗯，那太糟糕了。是什么让你对这些事情感兴趣？快跑，洗手。”

“嗯，你不会经常看到这样的事情。我从没干过。” 他走到后院，那里有一个消防栓和一根柱子，上面放着一张小桌子，上面放着一个闪闪发光的锡锅和一桶水。他在这里洗了脸和手。

“喂，爸爸，”他后来对父亲说，“你认识那只鱿鱼吗？”

“是的。”

“嗯，他死了。龙虾抓住了他。”

他的父亲继续读书。“好吧，那太糟糕了，”他冷漠地说。

但是好几天好几个星期，弗兰克都在想着这个，想着他被扔进的生活，因为他已经在思考自己在这个世界上应该成为什么样的人，以及他应该如何相处。看到他父亲数钱，他就肯定他会喜欢银行业；第三街，他父亲的办公室所在的地方，在他看来是世界上最干净、最迷人的街道。

第二章
年轻的弗兰克·阿尔杰农·考珀伍德的成长经历了数年堪称舒适幸福的家庭生活。Buttonwood Street 是他度过人生头十年的地方，对一个男孩来说是个宜居的地方。它主要是两层和三层的红砖小房子，白色大理石的小台阶通向前门，前门和窗户的轮廓是薄薄的白色大理石装饰。街上有树——很多。路面是又大又圆的鹅卵石，经过雨水的洗刷，光洁如新。人行道是红砖砌成的，总是潮湿阴凉。后面是一个院子，有树有草，有时还有花，因为那块地几乎总是有一百英尺深，而房子的正面紧贴着前面的人行道，在后面留下了一个舒适的空间。

考珀伍夫妇，父亲和母亲，并没有瘦弱到不能进入与孩子一起快乐和快乐的自然倾向；因此，这个家庭在弗兰克出生后每两三年增加一个孩子，直到有四个孩子，当他十岁时，他们准备搬进新市场街的家时，这是一件非常有趣的事情。亨利·沃辛顿·考珀伍德的职位越来越重要，他的人脉也越来越多，渐渐地，他成为了一个颇有名望的人物。他已经认识了一些与他的银行打交道的更富有的商人，并且由于作为一名职员，他的职责需要他到其他银行工作，他已经熟悉并在美国银行中广为人知，德雷克塞尔、爱德华兹等。

在他父亲年轻的考珀伍德的进步中，他肯定分享了这一点。他经常被允许在星期六来银行，那时他会非常感兴趣地观看经纪业务端巧妙地交换票据。他想知道所有类型的钱是从哪里来的，为什么要求和收到折扣，这些人用他们收到的所有钱做了什么。他的父亲对他的兴趣感到高兴，很高兴向他解释，这样即使在这个很小的时候——从十岁到十五岁——这个男孩就对这个国家的金融状况有了广泛的了解——什么是国家银行，什么是国家银行；经纪人做了什么；什么是股票，​​以及它们的价值为何波动。他开始清楚地看到货币作为交换媒介的含义，以及所有价值是如何根据一个主要价值——黄金的价值——来计算的。他本能地是一名金融家，与伟大艺术有关的所有知识对他来说就像诗人对生活的情感和微妙一样自然。黄金这种交换媒介让他产生了浓厚的兴趣。当他的父亲向他解释它是如何开采的时，他梦见自己拥有一座金矿，醒来时希望自己拥有。他同样对股票和债券很好奇，他了解到有些股票和债券不值它们所写的纸面价值，而另一些股票和债券的价值远高于其面值。他梦见自己拥有一座金矿，醒来时希望自己拥有。他同样对股票和债券很好奇，他了解到有些股票和债券不值它们所写的纸面价值，而另一些股票和债券的价值远高于其面值。他梦见自己拥有一座金矿，醒来时希望自己拥有。他同样对股票和债券很好奇，他了解到有些股票和债券不值它们所写的纸面价值，而另一些股票和债券的价值远高于其面值。

“孩子，”有一天他父亲对他说，“你不会经常在这附近看到一堆这样的人。” 他提到了英国东印度公司的一系列股票，这些股票以其面值的三分之二作为抵押，用于十万美元的贷款。一位费城大亨曾抵押他们使用现金。小考珀伍德好奇地看着他们。“它们看起来不太像，是吗？” 他评论道。

“它们的价值只是面值的四倍，”他父亲调皮地说。

弗兰克重新检查了一遍。“英国东印度公司，”他念道。“十英镑——差不多五十美元。”

“四十八，三十五，”他父亲干巴巴地评论道。“好吧，如果我们有一堆这样的东西，我们就不需要非常努力地工作了。您会注意到它们上几乎没有任何别针标记。他们不经常被派遣。我想这些以前从未被用作抵押品。”

年轻的考珀伍德在一段时间后把它们还给了他们，但对金融的广泛影响并非没有敏锐的感觉。什么是东印度公司？它做了什么？他的父亲告诉他。

在家里，他还听了很多关于金融投资和冒险的谈话。一方面，他听说过一个名叫斯坦伯格的古怪人物，他是来自弗吉尼亚的一位伟大的牛肉投机商，当时他被吸引到费城的原因是希望能轻松获得大笔贷款。Steemberger，据他父亲说，与 Nicholas Biddle、Lardner 和美国银行的其他人关系密切，或者至少与他们友好，似乎能够从该组织获得他所要求的几乎所有东西。他在弗吉尼亚州、俄亥俄州和其他州购买牛只的业务非常庞大，实际上完全垄断了向东部城市供应牛肉的业务。他是个大块头，巨大的，有一张脸，他父亲说，有点像猪；他戴着一顶海狸皮高帽，身穿一件长长的礼服大衣，宽松地挂在他的大胸膛和大肚子上。他设法将牛肉价格提高到每磅 30 美分，引起所有零售商和消费者的反抗，这就是他如此引人注目的原因。他过去常常在十二个月内带着十万或二十万美元来到老考珀伍德银行的经纪业务——美国银行面值一千、五千和十美元的邮票千美元。这些他将以 10% 到 12% 的价格兑现。根据他们的面值，之前已经向美国银行提供了他自己的四个月的全部金额的票据。他会以弗吉尼亚州、俄亥俄州和西宾夕法尼亚州的面值钞票从第三国民经纪柜台领取工资，因为他主要在这些州进行支付。Third National 首先会实现 4% 到 5% 的利润。在原始交易中；当它以折扣价购买西方钞票时，它也从中获利。

他父亲还谈到了另一个人——弗朗西斯·J·格伦德 (Francis J. Grund)，他是华盛顿著名的报社记者和游说者，拥有挖掘各种秘密的能力，尤其是那些与金融立法有关的秘密。总统和内阁的秘密，以及参议院和众议院的秘密，似乎都对他敞开。几年前，Grund 一直在通过一两个经纪人购买大量各种德克萨斯州的债务凭证和债券。得克萨斯共和国在争取从墨西哥独立的斗争中发行了种类繁多的债券和证书，价值达一千万或一千五百万美元。后来，关于使德克萨斯州成为国情咨文的计划，一项议案获得通过，规定美国出资 500 万美元，用于清偿这笔旧债。格伦德知道这一点，也知道由于特殊的发行条件，部分债务将被全额支付，而其他部分将被缩减，并且会有虚假或预安排在一次会议上未能通过该法案，以吓跑可能已经听到并开始购买旧证书以牟利的局外人。他将这一事实告知了第三国民银行，当然，这些信息也以出纳员的身份传给了考珀伍德。他把这件事告诉了他的妻子，他的儿子就这样拐弯抹角地听到了，清澈的大眼睛亮晶晶的。他想知道为什么他的父亲不利用这种情况为自己购买一些德州证书。格伦德，他父亲是这么说的，可能还有其他三四个人，每个人都赚了十万多美元。这不完全合法，他似乎认为，但它也是。为什么不应奖励此类内部信息？不知何故，弗兰克意识到他的父亲过于诚实，过于谨慎，但他告诉自己，长大后他要成为一名经纪人，或者金融家，或者银行家，并做一些这样的事情。

就在这时，考珀伍德家来了一位叔叔，他以前从未出现在这个家庭的生活中。他是考珀伍德夫人的兄弟——名字叫塞内卡·戴维斯——身材魁梧、虚伪，身高五英尺十英寸，身体又大又圆，脑袋又圆又光滑，有点秃顶，脸色清澈红润，蓝眼睛，还有什么他有一头沙色的小头发。按照当时流行的标准，他的穿着非常考究，喜欢穿花背心、长款浅色礼服大衣和一成不变的（对于一个相当富裕的人来说）高帽。弗兰克立刻被他迷住了。他曾在古巴当过种植园主，在那里仍然拥有一个大牧场，可以告诉他古巴生活的故事——叛乱、伏击、在他自己的种植园里用砍刀肉搏，诸如此类。他带来了一批印第安居里，更不用说独立的财产和几个奴隶了——其中一个名叫曼努埃尔，高大瘦骨嶙峋的黑人，是他的忠实侍从，可以说是贴身仆人。他用船将原糖从他的种植园运到费城的南华克码头。弗兰克喜欢他，因为他以一种热情、快乐的方式生活，对于这个有点安静和内向的家庭来说，他的生活相当粗鲁和随意。

“为什么，南希·阿拉贝拉，”一个星期天下午他一到考珀伍德夫人就对他说，他出人意料的出人意料的出现让全家人都为之欢欣鼓舞，“你一寸都没长高！我以为你在这里嫁给老兄弟 Hy 时，你会像你哥哥一样长胖。但是看看你！我向天堂发誓，你的体重不到五磅。” 他抓住她的腰上下颠簸，这让孩子们很不安，他们以前从未见过他们的母亲被如此亲切地对待。

亨利·考珀伍德对这位相当有钱的亲戚的到来非常感兴趣，也很高兴。十二年前，当他结婚时，塞内卡·戴维斯并没有太注意他。

“看看这些脸色油灰的小费城人，”他继续说道，“他们应该到我在古巴的牧场来，晒晒太阳。这会消除这种蜡质外观。” 他捏了捏安娜·阿德莱德的脸颊，她现在已经五岁了。“我告诉你，亨利，你在这里有一个相当不错的地方。” 而他也用挑剔的眼光打量着这栋颇为普通的三层楼房的正房。

尺寸为 20 x 24，仿樱桃木装饰，搭配一套新的喜来登客厅家具，呈现出古朴和谐的外观。自从亨利成为出纳员后，家里就买了一架从欧洲运来的钢琴——这在当时绝对是奢侈品。打算让安娜·阿德莱德在她足够大的时候学习弹奏。房间里有几件不常见的装饰品——一盏煤气吊灯，一个盛着金鱼的玻璃碗，一些稀有的高度抛光的贝壳，还有一个大理石丘比特，上面放着一篮花。现在是夏天，窗户开着，外面的树木长着宽阔的绿色枝条，令人赏心悦目，为砖砌的人行道遮荫。塞内卡叔叔漫步到后院。

“好吧，这已经足够令人愉快了，”他观察到，注意到一棵大榆树，并看到院子部分用砖铺成并围在砖墙内，藤蔓爬上墙的两侧。“你的吊床在哪儿？夏天你不在这里挂吊床吗？在我位于圣佩德罗的阳台上，我有六七个。”

“因为邻居的缘故，我们没想过要放一个，但这会很好，”考珀伍德夫人表示同意。“亨利必须得到一个。”

“我在旅馆的行李箱里有两三个。我的黑鬼们在下面制造了他们。早上我会派曼纽尔和他们一起过去。”

他拔下葡萄藤，拧了拉爱德华的耳朵，告诉第二个男孩约瑟夫，他会给他带来一把印第安战斧，然后回到屋里。

“这就是我感兴趣的小伙子，”过了一会儿，他说，把手放在弗兰克的肩膀上。“你给他起的全称是什么，亨利？”

“弗兰克·阿尔吉侬。”

“嗯，你可以用我的名字给他取名。这个男孩有些东西。小伙子，你要不要来古巴当个种植园主？”

“我不确定我是否愿意，”最年长的回答。

“嗯，说的很直接。你反对什么？

“没什么，只是我对此一无所知。”

“你知道什么？”

男孩机智地笑了笑。“我猜不是很多。”

“嗯，你对什么感兴趣？”

“钱！”

“啊哈！骨头里长的是什么，嗯？从你父亲那里得到一些东西，嗯？嗯，这是一个很好的特质。说话也像个男人！我们稍后会听到更多。南希，我认为你在这里培养了一位金融家。他说话像一个人。”

他现在仔细地看着弗兰克。那个强壮的年轻身体里有真正的力量——这是毫无疑问的。那双清澈的灰色大眼睛充满智慧。他们表示很多，但什么也没透露。

“聪明的孩子！” 他对他的姐夫亨利说。“我喜欢他的打扮。你有一个光明的家庭。”

亨利·考珀伍德干巴巴地笑了笑。这个男人，如果他喜欢弗兰克，可能会为这个男孩做很多事情。他最终可能会把他的一些财产留给他。他很富有，单身。

塞内卡叔叔成了这所房子的常客——他和他的黑人保镖曼努埃尔会说英语和西班牙语，这让孩子们大吃一惊。他对弗兰克越来越感兴趣。

“当那个男孩长大到知道他想做什么时，我想我会帮助他去做，”有一天他对他的妹妹说。她告诉他她非常感激。他和弗兰克谈起他的学业，发现他对书本或大部分他被迫从事的研究都不感兴趣。语法是可憎的。文学愚蠢。拉丁语没有用。历史——嗯，相当有趣。

“我喜欢簿记和算术，”他说。“不过，我想出去工作。这就是我想做的。”

“你很年轻，我的孩子，”他的叔叔说。“你现在才几岁？十四？”

“十三。”

“嗯，你不能在 16 岁之前离开学校。如果你待到十七或十八岁，你会做得更好。它不会对你造成任何伤害。你不会再变成男孩了。”

“我不想成为一个男孩。我要开始工作了。”

“别走得太快，儿子。你很快就会成为一个男人。你想成为一名银行家，是吗？”

“是的先生！”

“好吧，到时候，如果一切顺利，你表现得很好，你还想做，我就帮你创业。如果我是你，想成为一名银行家，我会先在一些好的谷物和佣金公司工作一年左右。那里有很好的训练。你会学到很多你应该知道的。同时，保持健康并尽你所能学习。无论我在哪里，你都告诉我，我会写信了解你的表现。”

他给了男孩一个十美元的金币，用来开设银行账户。而且，毫不奇怪，他更喜欢整个考珀伍德家庭，因为这个充满活力、自给自足、纯正的年轻人是其中不可或缺的一部分。

第三章
在他十三岁那年，年轻的考珀伍德开始了他的第一次商业冒险。一天，他走在布满进口和批发商店的 Front Street 上，看到一家批发杂货店前悬挂着拍卖师的旗帜，从里面传来拍卖师的声音：“我出价多少，才能买到这批特别多的 Java 咖啡，20-两袋算起来，现在市场上卖七块钱三十二美分一袋批发的是哪个？我出价多少？我出价多少？整个地段必须作为一个整体。我出价多少？”

“18 美元，”站在门口的一位商贩建议道，这主要是为了开始竞价而不是其他任何事情。弗兰克停顿了一下。

“22！” 叫另一个。

“三十！” 三分之一。“三十五！” 四分之一，最多七十五，不到它价值的一半。

“我出价七十五！我出价七十五！” 叫拍卖师，大声。“还有其他优惠吗？七十五岁去一次；我有八十吗？七十五岁时去了两次，然后”——他停顿了一下，一只手戏剧性地举了起来。然后他在对方的手掌上一记耳光把它打下来——“以七十五元的价格卖给了西拉斯·格雷戈里先生。记下来，杰里，”他对身边的红头发、满脸雀斑的店员喊道。然后他转向另一批杂货主食——这次是淀粉，一桶十一桶。

年轻的考珀伍德正在快速计算。如果像拍卖师所说的那样，咖啡在公开市场上每袋价值 7 美元 32 美分，而这位买家以 75 美元的价格买到这杯咖啡，那么他当时就赚了 86 美元 4 美分，更不用说如果他以零售价出售它的利润是多少。据他回忆，他母亲每磅要付二十八美分。他靠得更近了，他的书夹在胳膊下，仔细地观察着这些操作。他很快就听说，这种淀粉每桶价值十美元，而它只卖了六美元。一些醋桶以其价值的三分之一被打倒，等等。他开始希望自己能出价。但他没有钱，只有一点点零钱。拍卖师注意到他几乎就站在他的鼻子底下，

“我现在要为您提供大量的卡斯蒂利亚肥皂——七箱，不少于——如您所知，如果您对肥皂有所了解，现在每块售价十四美分。现在这块肥皂在任何地方都值十一美元七十五美分一箱。我出价多少？我出价多少？我出价多少？” 他说话很快，一贯是拍卖师的风格，没有必要强调重点。但考珀伍德并没有受到过分的影响。他已经在快速地为自己盘算了。七箱 11 美元 75 美分只值 82 美元 25 美分；如果它减半——如果它减半——

“十二美元，”一位投标人评论道。

“十五，”另一个叫道。

“二十，”第三个人喊道。

“二十五”，第四个。

然后是美元加薪，因为卡斯蒂利亚肥皂并不是那么重要的商品。“二十六。” “二十七。” “二十八。” “二十九。” 有一个停顿。“三十，”年轻的考珀伍德果断地评论道。

拍卖师是个身材矮小、面容瘦削、头发浓密、目光敏锐的男人，他好奇地、几乎难以置信地看着他，但没有停顿。不知怎么的，他不由自主地被这男孩那双奇特的眼睛打动了。现在，不知为什么，他觉得这个提议可能足够合理，而且这个男孩有钱。他可能是杂货商的儿子。

“我出价三十！我出价三十！我出价 30 美元买下这批精美的卡斯蒂利亚香皂。这是一个很好的很多。一根酒吧值十四美分。有人会出价三十一吗？有人会出价三十一吗？有人愿意出价三十一吗？

“三十一点，”一个声音说。

“三十二，”考珀伍德回答。重复相同的过程。

“我出价三十二！我出价三十二！我出价三十二！有人会出价三十三吗？是很好的肥皂。七箱优质卡斯蒂利亚香皂。有人愿意出价三十三吗？

年轻的考珀伍德正在思考。他没有带钱。但他的父亲是第三国民银行的出纳员，他可以引用他作为参考。当然，他可以把他所有的肥皂卖给家里的杂货店；或者，如果没有，去其他杂货店。其他人都急于以这个价格买到这种肥皂。为什么不是他？

拍卖师顿了顿。

“三十二一次！我出价三十三吗？三十二两次！我出价三十三吗？三十二三次！七箱精致的肥皂。我还要出价吗？一次两次！三次！我还出价吗？”——他的手又举了起来——“然后卖给了——先生？” 他弯下身子，好奇地看着他年轻的投标人的脸。

“弗兰克·考珀伍德，第三国民银行出纳员的儿子，”男孩果断地回答。

“哦，是的，”男人说，被他的目光固定住了。

“我跑去银行取钱，你能等一下吗？”

“是的。不要离开太久。如果你一小时内不在，我会再卖一次。”

小考珀伍德没有回答。他急忙出去跑得很快；首先，去了他母亲的杂货店，他的商店离他家只有一个街区。

距离门口 30 英尺处，他放慢了速度，摆出一副若无其事的样子，漫步走进去，四处寻找卡斯蒂利亚香皂。就在那儿，同一种，陈列在一个盒子里，看起来就像他的肥皂一样。

“达尔林普尔先生，这个酒吧多少钱？” 他问。

“十六美分，”值得回答。

“如果我就这样卖给你七盒六十二块钱，你要不要？”

“同样的肥皂？”

“是的先生。”

达尔林普先生盘算了一下。

“是的，我想我会的，”他谨慎地回答。

“你今天付钱给我好吗？”

“我会给你我的笔记。肥皂呢？”

邻居的儿子提出这个出乎意料的提议，他感到困惑，甚至有些吃惊。他很了解考珀伍德先生——还有弗兰克。

“如果我今天把它带给你，你会接受吗？”

“是的，我会的，”他回答道。“你打算做肥皂生意吗？”

“不。但我知道在哪里可以买到便宜的肥皂。”

他又匆匆出门，跑到他父亲的银行。那是在银行营业时间之后；但他知道如何进入，他知道他父亲会很高兴看到他赚到三十美元。他只想借一天的钱。

“怎么了，弗兰克？” 他父亲问，当他出现时，他从办公桌上抬起头来，气喘吁吁，脸色通红。

“我要你借我三十二块钱！你会？”

“为什么，是的，我可能会。你想用它做什么？

“我想买一些肥皂——七盒卡斯蒂利亚肥皂。我知道在哪里可以买到和卖掉它。Dalrymple 先生会接受它。他已经出价六十二了。我可以花三十二块买到它。你会让我拿钱吗？我得跑回去付钱给拍卖师。”

他父亲笑了。这是他见过儿子表现出的最务实的态度。对于一个十三岁的男孩来说，他是如此敏锐、如此警觉。

“为什么，弗兰克，”他说着走到放着一些钞票的抽屉前，“你已经打算成为一名金融家了吗？你确定你不会输在这上面？你知道你在做什么，对吗？”

“你让我拿钱，父亲，好吗？” 他恳求道。“我待会儿给你看。让我拥有它。你可以相信我。”

他就像一只嗅到野味的年轻猎犬。他的父亲无法抗拒他的呼吁。

“当然可以，弗兰克，”他回答道。“我相信你。” 又数出六张三国自己发行的五元券和两张。“你在这。”

弗兰克简短地道谢后跑出大楼，并以最快的速度返回拍卖室。他进来的时候，糖正在拍卖。他走向拍卖师的书记员。

“我想买那块肥皂，”他建议道。

“现在？”

“是的。给我收据好吗？”

“是的。”

“你送这个吗？”

“不。没有送货。你必须在二十四小时内把它拿走。”

那个困难并没有困扰他。

“好吧，”他说，然后把他的购买凭证收进了口袋。

他出去的时候拍卖师看着他。半小时后，他带着一个车夫回来了——一个无所事事的堤坝码头衣客，正在等待工作。

弗兰克与他讨价还价，以六十美分的价格送肥皂。又过了半小时，他来到了惊讶的达尔林普尔先生的门前，他已经出来查看了那些箱子，然后试图将它们拿走。他的计划是，如果手术因任何原因未能成功，就将它们带到他自己的家中。虽然这是他的第一次伟大冒险，但他冷静如玻璃。

“是的，”达尔林普先生说，若有所思地挠着他灰色的脑袋。“是的，那是同一种肥皂。我要买它。我会言出必行。你从哪儿弄来的，弗兰克？”

“在 Bixom 的拍卖会上，”他坦率而温和地回答。

达尔林普先生让车夫把肥皂拿来。经过一些手续——因为这个案子中的代理人是一个男孩——在三十天后写了一张便条交给了他。

弗兰克向他道谢，然后把字条收进了口袋。他决定回到他父亲的银行，像他看到别人做的那样，把它贴现，从而偿还他父亲的钱，并用现钱赚取自己的利润。平时任何一天下班后都不能做；但他的父亲会破例处理他的情况。

他吹着口哨，急忙跑回来。当他进来时，他父亲微笑地抬头看了一眼。

“嗯，弗兰克，你怎么样了？” 他问。

“这是三十天后的一张便条，”他说，拿出达尔林普尔给他的那张纸。“你要给我打折吗？你可以从中取出你的三十二。

他的父亲仔细检查了它。“六十二美元！” 他观察到。“先生。达尔林普尔！那是好纸！我可以。这将花费你百分之十。”他开玩笑地补充道。“不过，你为什么不拿着它呢？这三十二块钱我会让你拿到月底的。”

“哦，不，”他的儿子说，“你打折拿走你的钱。我可能想要我的。”

他父亲对他公事公办的神情微笑。“好吧，”他说。“我明天会修好它。告诉我你是怎么做到的。” 他的儿子告诉他。

那天晚上七点，弗兰克的妈妈听说了这件事，塞内卡叔叔也及时听说了。

“我跟你说了什么，考珀伍德？” 他问。“他身上有东西，那个年轻人。小心他。”

晚餐时，考珀伍德夫人好奇地看着她的儿子。这就是她不久前还抱在怀里的儿子吗？当然，他正在迅速发展。

“嗯，弗兰克，我希望你能经常这样做，”她说。

“我也希望如此，妈妈，”这是他相当不置可否的回答。

然而，并不是每天都有拍卖会，他的家庭杂货店在合理的时间内只对一次这样的交易开放，但从一开始，年轻的考珀伍德就知道如何赚钱。他订阅了一份男孩报纸；经手代理销售一种新型溜冰鞋，并曾组织一群社区青年组成工会，目的是批发购买他们的夏季草帽。存钱致富不是他的主意。从一开始他就认为自由支出更好，而且他会以某种方式相处。

也是在这一年，或者更早一点的时候，他开始对女孩产生了兴趣。从一开始，他就对其中的美人有着敏锐的眼光。而且，他长得漂亮又有魅力，不难引起他感兴趣的人的同情。住在街对面的一个十二岁的女孩佩蒂丝·巴洛第一个引起了他的注意，或者说是被他吸引住了。乌黑的头发和锐利的黑眼睛是她的一部分，漂亮的辫子垂在她的背后，纤细的脚和脚踝与纤巧的身材相得益彰。她是一位贵格会教徒，是贵格会教徒父母的女儿，戴着端庄的小帽子。不过她的性情活泼，喜欢这个自立自足直言不讳的男孩子。一天，时不时交换一个眼神后，他说：

“是的，”她有点慌乱地回答——这最后一点体现在她紧张地摆动着书包——“我住在一号四十一号。”

“我知道这所房子，”他说。“我看到你进去了。你和我姐姐上同一所学校，是吗？你不是 Patience Barlow 吗？他听到一些男孩说出她的名字。“是的。你怎么知道的？”

“哦，我听说过，”他笑着说。“我见过你。你喜欢甘草吗？”

他在外套里摸了摸，拿出当时卖的几根新鲜的木棍。

“谢谢你，”她甜甜地说，接过一个。

“不是很好。我已经带着它很久了。前几天我吃了一些太妃糖。”

“哦，没关系，”她回答说，嚼着她的末端。

“你不认识我妹妹安娜·考珀伍德吗？” 他以自我介绍的方式重复了一遍。“她的年级比你低，但我想你也许见过她。”

“我想我知道她是谁。我看见她放学回家了。”

“我就住在那边，”当他走近时，他指着自己的家吐露心声，就好像她不知道一样。“我想我现在就在这里见。”

“你认识露丝·梅里亚姆吗？” 她问，当他准备转入鹅卵石路到达他自己的门时。

“没有为什么？”

“下周二她要举办一个派对，”她自告奋勇地说，看似毫无意义，但只是表面上的。

“她住在哪里？”

“还有二十八。”

“我想去，”他转身离开她时热情地肯定道。

“也许她会问你，”她回应道，随着他们之间的距离越来越大，她变得更加勇敢。“我去问问她。”

“谢谢，”他笑着说。

她开始欢快地向前跑。

他微笑着看着她。她很漂亮。他非常想亲吻她，露丝·梅里亚姆的派对上可能发生的事情在他眼前生动地浮现。

这只是早期的恋爱或早恋之一，在事后的混合中时不时地让他心烦意乱。在他找到另一个女孩之前，帕蒂斯巴洛被他偷偷亲了很多次。她和街上的其他人在冬天的夜晚跑出去玩雪，或者在天黑的时候在黄昏后徘徊在她自己的门前。那时很容易抓住她亲吻她，在聚会上跟她傻傻地说话。然后多拉菲特勒来了，当时他 16 岁，她 14 岁。和玛乔丽·斯塔福德，当时他 17 岁，她 15 岁。多拉·费特是个黑发女郎，玛乔丽·斯塔福德像清晨一样白皙，有着鲜红的脸颊、蓝灰色的眼睛和亚麻色的头发，胖得像一只鹧鸪。

十七岁那年，他决定离开学校。他还没有毕业。他才读完高中三年级。但他受够了。自从他十三岁起，他的心思就一直放在金融上。也就是说，以他在第三街看到的形式出现。他偶尔会做一些奇怪的事情来赚点钱。他的叔叔塞内卡允许他在萨瑟克的糖码头担任助理称重员，在那里，三百磅重的袋子在美国检查员的监督下被称入政府保税仓库。在某些紧急情况下，他被召唤去协助他的父亲，并为此得到报酬。他甚至与 Dalrymple 先生安排在星期六协助他。但当他父亲成为银行出纳员，年收入四千美元时，

就在这时，他的叔叔塞内卡再次回到费城，而且比以往任何时候都更结实、更专横，有一天对他说：

“现在，弗兰克，如果你准备好了，我想我知道哪里有适合你的机会。第一年不会有任何薪水，但如果你介意你的 p 和 q，他们可能会在那个时间结束时给你一些东西作为礼物。你知道第二街的亨利·沃特曼公司吗？”

“我见过他们的地方。”

“嗯，他们告诉我他们可能会为你安排一个簿记员的位置。他们在某种程度上是掮客——粮食和佣金。你说你想加入那行。放学后，你去见沃特曼先生——告诉他是我派你来的，我想他会为你腾出位置的。让我知道你是怎么出来的。”

塞内卡叔叔现在结婚了，因为他的财富，吸引了一位贫穷但雄心勃勃的费城上流社会主妇的注意。正因为如此，考珀伍德一家的人际关系被认为得到了极大改善。Henry Cowperwood 正计划与他的家人一起搬到更远的 North Front Street，那里当时可以欣赏到美丽的河流景色，并且正在见证一些迷人住宅的建设。在内战前的这些时期，他每年 4000 美元是相当可观的。他正在进行他认为明智和保守的投资，由于他谨慎、保守、钟表般的行为，人们认为他可能有理由期望有一天成为他的银行的副总裁，甚至可能是总裁。

塞内卡叔叔提出让他加入 Waterman & Company 的提议，在弗兰克看来，这正是他正确开始的事情。因此，他在 6 月的一天在南二街 74 号向该组织报到，受到了老亨利·沃特曼先生的热情接待。他很快了解到，小亨利·沃特曼是一名 25 岁的年轻人，还有一个乔治·沃特曼，他是一个兄弟，五十岁，是内幕人物。老亨利·沃特曼，一个五十五岁的男人，是该组织内外的总负责人——在必要时走遍附近地区拜访客户，在他兄弟的案件中担任最终顾问无法调整事务，建议和建议他的同事和雇员开展的新企业。他是，看起来，冷漠类型的人——矮小，粗壮，眼睛周围有皱纹，肚子有点隆起，红脖子，红脸，眼睛有点鼓，但很精明，善良，善良，机智。由于他天生具有常识性的想法和令人愉悦的性格，他在这里建立了稳固而成功的业务。他年事已高，如果儿子完全适合这项业务，他会很乐意欢迎他的热心合作。

然而，他不是。不像他父亲那样民主、机智或对手头的工作不满意，这项业务实际上冒犯了他。如果交易由他负责，它很快就会消失。他的父亲预见到这一点，非常难过，希望最终会出现一个对这项业务感兴趣的年轻人，以与处理它时相同的精神处理它，并且不会排挤他的儿子。

然后是塞内卡·戴维斯 (Seneca Davis) 向他提起过的年轻考珀伍德 (Cowperwood)。他挑剔地打量着他。是的，这个男孩可能会，他想。他身上有一些简单而充足的东西。他似乎一点也不慌张或不安。他说他知道如何记账，尽管他对粮食和佣金业务的细节一无所知。这对他来说很有趣。他想试试。

“我喜欢那个家伙，”当弗兰克带着第二天早上的指示去报道时，亨利沃特曼向他的兄弟吐露了心声。“他有点东西。他是许多天以来走进这里的最干净、最活跃、最有活力的人。”

“是的，”乔治说，他是一个更瘦、更高的男人，有一双乌黑、模糊、反光的眼睛，一头稀疏的、几乎已经消失的棕黑色头发，与他蛋形的白光秃头形成奇怪的对比。“是的，他是个不错的年轻人。他父亲不带他去银行真是个奇迹。”

“好吧，他可能做不到，”他的兄弟说。“他只是那里的收银员。”

“这是正确的。”

“好吧，我们会给他一个审判。我敢打赌他做的任何事。他是一个看起来很有前途的年轻人。”

亨利起身走进正门，望着第二街。凉爽的鹅卵石人行道，被东面建筑物的墙壁遮挡住东方的阳光——他是其中的一部分——嘈杂的卡车和货车，忙碌的人群来来往往，让他感到高兴。他看着路边的建筑物——都是三层和四层，大部分是灰色石头，充满生机——感谢他的星星，因为他最初坐落在如此繁华的街区。如果他买这个的时候带了更多的财产就好了！

“我希望考珀伍德男孩能成为我想要的那种人，”他沉思地自言自语道。“这些天他可以让我少跑很多路。”

奇怪的是，在与男孩仅仅交谈了三四分钟之后，他就感觉到了这种明显的效率。有件事告诉他，他会做得很好。

第四章
弗兰克考珀伍德此时的出现，至少可以说是讨人喜欢和令人满意的。大自然注定他身高大约五英尺十英寸。他的脑袋很大，很匀称，特别有商业气质，浓密的乌黑的头发蓬松，固定在一对方肩和结实的身体上。他的眼睛已经有了多年深思熟虑后的神情。他们是高深莫测的。你从他的眼睛看不出任何东西。他迈着轻盈、自信、有弹性的步伐走着。生活没有给他带来严重的冲击，也没有让他猛然惊醒。他没有被迫遭受疾病、痛苦或任何形式的剥夺。他看到比自己有钱的人，但他希望自己有钱。他的家人受到尊重，他的父亲地位很高。他不欠任何人任何东西。一旦他让他的一张小票在银行过期，但他父亲大吵大闹，他永远也忘不了。“我宁愿手脚并用地爬行，也不愿让我的报纸去抗议，”老先生说。这使他牢记几乎不需要如此尖锐强调的东西——信用的重要性。由于他的任何疏忽，他的任何一篇论文都没有去抗议或过期。

事实证明，他是沃特曼公司所知道的最有效率的职员。他们起初把他作为助理簿记员记在账簿上，Thomas Trixler 副先生被解雇了，两周后乔治说：“我们为什么不任命 Cowperwood 为首席簿记员？他一分钟内知道的比桑普森那家伙永远都不知道。”

“好吧，进行转移，乔治，但别大惊小怪。不过，他做簿记员的时间不会太长。我想看看他是否能过一会儿为我处理这些转会。”

Messrs. Waterman & Co. 的书虽然相当复杂，但对弗兰克来说就像儿戏。他轻松而迅速地完成了这些任务，这让他以前的上司桑普森先生感到惊讶。

“为什么，那个家伙，”桑普森在看到考珀伍德工作的第一天就对另一名店员说，“他太活泼了。他要好好休息了。我知道那种。稍等片刻，直到我们获得那些匆忙的信贷和转账日之一。” 但桑普森先生预期的坏消息并没有实现。在不到一个星期的时间里，考珀伍德就了解了沃特曼先生的财务状况，而且了解他们所做的——更好——一美元。他知道他们的账户是如何分配的；他们从哪个部分吸引了最多的业务；谁发送了劣质产品和优质产品——一年中不同的价格说明了这一点。为了让自己满意，他重新检查了分类帐中的某些帐户，以验证他的怀疑。他对簿记不感兴趣，只是把它当作一种记录，一种公司生活的证明。他知道他不会做这么久。还会发生其他事情；但他立刻看清了谷物和佣金业务是什么——它的每一个细节。他看到，由于在提供托运货物方面缺乏更大的活动——与托运人和买家的沟通更快，与周围的佣金人员达成更好的工作协议——这家公司，或者更确切地说，它的客户，因为它一无所有，遭受了严重的损失。一个人会用拖船或一车车运水果或蔬菜，以对抗所谓的上涨或稳定的市场；但是，如果其他十个人同时做同样的事情，或者其他委托人被水果或蔬菜淹没，并且无法在合理的时间内处理掉它们，价格就必须下降。每天都带着它的特殊货物。他立刻想到，作为一个处理沉重货物的外人，他对这所房子的用处要大得多，但他犹豫着要不要这么快说什么。很有可能，事情很快就会自我调整。

沃特曼夫妇亨利和乔治对他处理账目的方式非常满意。有他在，就有安全感。他很快就开始提醒乔治弟兄注意某些账户的情况，就可能的清算或中止提出建议，这让那个人非常高兴。他看到了通过这个年轻人的智慧减轻自己工作的方法；同时与他建立愉快的友谊感。

亨利弟兄是为了在外面试探他。用手头的股票完成订单并不总是可能的，而且必须有人去街上或交易所购买，而通常他就是这样做的。一天早上，当运单上显示面粉可能过剩而谷物短缺时——弗兰克第一个看到了——年长的沃特曼把他叫到办公室，说：

“弗兰克，我希望你能看看你能为我们在街上面临的这种情况做些什么。到明天，我们就会挤满面粉了。我们不能支付仓储费，我们的订单也不会吃光它。我们缺粮。也许你可以把面粉卖给那些中间人，然后给我足够的谷物来满足这些订单。”

“我想试试，”他的员工说。

他从书中知道各种佣金所的位置。他知道当地商人的交易所，以及从事这些事情的各种委托商人必须提供什么。这是他喜欢做的事情——调整这种性质的贸易难度。再次出门在外，挨家挨户地走来走去，真是令人愉快。他反对案头工作和笔尖工作，也反对埋头读书。正如他晚年所说，他的大脑就是他的办公室。他急忙去找主要的代销商，了解面粉市场的情况，并按照他预期的价格出售剩余的商品，如果没有预期的供过于求的话。他们是否想购买 600 桶优质面粉立即交货（四十八小时是立即交货）？他会以每桶 9 美元的价格出售。他们没有。他分批提供，有些人同意接受一份，有些则同意接受另一份。大约一个小时后，他除了 200 桶油外，其他的都买好了，他决定将这些油全部卖给一位名叫 Genderman 的著名经营者，他的公司与他没有任何业务往来。后者是个大个子，留着卷曲的灰色头发，一张粗糙但又圆胖的脸，一双小眼睛从肥厚的眼皮里机灵地探出头来，他进来时好奇地打量着考珀伍德。

“你叫什么名字，年轻人？” 他靠在木椅上问道。

“柯柏伍德。”

“所以你在 Waterman & Company 工作？你想做一个记录，毫无疑问。这就是你来找我的原因？”

考帕伍德只是笑了笑。

“好吧，我会拿走你的面粉。我需要它。给我开单吧。”

考帕伍德急忙出去了。他直接去了核桃街的一家经纪人公司，他的公司与他们有交易，并让他们以现行价格竞标他需要的谷物。然后他回到了办公室。

“好吧，”亨利·沃特曼在报告时说，“你做得很快。直接卖给老 Genderman 两百桶，是吗？那做得很好。他不在我们的名单上，是吗？”

“不，先生。”

“我以为不是。好吧，如果你能在街上做那种工作，你就不会在书上待太久。”

此后，随着时间的推移，弗兰克成为佣金区和“变革”（农产品交易所）的熟悉人物，为他的雇主取得平衡，挑选他们需要的零碎东西，招揽新客户，通过处置来打破过剩在意想不到的地方的奇怪地段。事实上，沃特曼夫妇对他在这方面的能力感到惊讶。他有一种不可思议的能力，可以得到赞赏的听证会、结交朋友、被介绍到新的领域。新的生命开始流经沃特曼公司的旧渠道。他们的客户更加满意。乔治赞成派他去农村地区招揽贸易，这最终做到了。

快到圣诞节时，亨利对乔治说：“我们必须送考珀伍德一份慷慨的礼物。他没有任何薪水。五百块钱怎么办？”

“这差不多了，看看现在的情况，但我想他是值得的。他确实完成了我们所期望的一切，甚至更多。他不适合做这行。”

“他对此怎么说？你有没有听到他说他是否满意？

“哦，我想他非常喜欢它。你和我一样经常见到他。”

“好吧，我们会赚到五百。那家伙总有一天不会成为这个行业的坏伙伴。他有这方面的真正诀窍。你看，我们俩一句话，他就拿到了五百块钱。”

因此，圣诞节前一天晚上，当考珀伍德正在查看一些运单和托运单，准备为即将到来的假期准备好一切时，乔治·沃特曼来到了他的办公桌前。

“努力，”他说，站在燃烧的煤气灯下，非常满意地看着他活泼的员工。

时值傍晚，积雪从前面的窗户透出斑驳的图案。

“就在我结束之前的几点，”Cowperwood 笑着说。

“在过去的六个月里，我和我的兄弟对你处理这里工作的方式感到特别满意。我们想表示感谢，我们认为五百美元是合适的。从一月份开始，我们会给你每周 30 美元的固定工资。”

“我当然非常感谢你，”弗兰克说。“我没想到那么多。这是一个很好的交易。我在这里学到了很多我很高兴知道的东西。”

“哦，别提了。我们知道你已经赢得了它。只要你愿意，你可以和我们在一起。我们很高兴有你和我们在一起。”

考帕伍德露出了他爽朗而亲切的微笑。在这种认可的证据下，他感到非常自在。他穿着做工精良的英国粗花呢衣服，看上去精神抖擞。

那天晚上在回家的路上，他推测了这件事的性质。他知道他不会在那里久留，即使有这份礼物和薪水承诺。当然，他们很感激；但为什么不呢？他很有效率，他知道这一点；在他的领导下，事情进展顺利。他从没想过自己属于文职人员的领域。那些人应该为他工作，而且愿意为他工作。他的态度没有任何野蛮，没有对命运的愤怒，没有对失败的黑暗恐惧。他手下的这两个人，在他眼里已经不过是人物，他们的生意本身就很重要。他可以看到他们的弱点和缺点，就像一个年长得多的男人看待男孩的那样。

那天晚上吃过晚饭后，在去拜访他的女儿玛乔丽·斯塔福德之前，他告诉父亲五百美元的礼物和承诺的薪水。

“太棒了，”年长的男人说。“你做得比我想象的要好。我想你会留在那里。”

“不，我不会。我想我会在明年的某个时候辞职。”

“为什么？”

“嗯，这不是我真正想做的。没关系，但我想我宁愿尝试一下经纪业务。这对我很有吸引力。”

“你不觉得你不告诉他们是对他们不公平吗？”

“一点也不。他们需要我。” 一直在审视镜子中的自己，拉直领带，整理外套。

“你告诉你妈妈了吗？”

“不。我现在就去做。”

他走到他妈妈所在的餐厅，伸出双臂搂住她娇小的身子，说道：“你觉得怎么样，嬷嬷？”

“嗯，什么？” 她问道，深情地看着他的眼睛。

“今晚我得到五百美元，明年我每周得到三十美元。你圣诞节想要什么？”

“你不说！这不是很好吗！那不是很好吗！他们一定喜欢你。你会变得很有男子气概的，不是吗？”

“你圣诞节想要什么？”

“没有。我什么都不想要 我有我的孩子。”

他笑了。“好的。那就什么都不是了。”

但她知道他会给她买东西。

他出去了，在门口停下来逗弄地搂住了妹妹的腰，说着半夜半回来，就快步赶往玛乔丽的家，因为他答应过要带她去看演出。

“今年圣诞节你想要什么，玛吉？” 他在昏暗的大厅里吻了她之后问道。“我今晚有五百。”

她是个天真无邪的小东西，才十五岁，没有狡诈，没有狡猾。

“哦，你不需要给我任何东西。”

“我不需要吗？” 他问道，捏住她的腰，再次亲吻她的嘴。

能在这个世界上走上这条路并度过如此美好的时光真是太好了。

第五章
次年 10 月，考珀伍德已年满 18 岁，将近六个月，他确信自己再也不想与沃特曼公司经营的谷物和佣金业务有任何关系，于是决定与他们断绝关系，开始工作Tighe & Company、银行家和经纪人。

Cowperwood 与 Tighe & Company 的会面是在履行他作为 Waterman & Company 外部人员的职责时发生的。从一开始，Tighe 先生就对这位狡猾的年轻使者产生了浓厚的兴趣。

“你们的生意怎么样？” 他会亲切地问；或者，“发现你最近收到了很多欠条？”

由于国家动荡不安、证券过度膨胀、奴隶制鼓动等等，有艰难时期的前景。而 Tighe——他无法告诉你原因——相信这个年轻人在这一切方面值得倾诉。他还不够大，不能知道，但他确实知道。

“哦，我们进展顺利，谢谢你，Tighe 先生，”Cowperwood 会回答。

“我告诉你，”一天早上他对考珀伍德说，“这种奴隶制骚动，如果不停止，就会引起麻烦。”

一位来自古巴的游客的一名黑人奴隶刚刚被绑架并获释，因为宾夕法尼亚州的法律规定任何被带入该州的黑人都享有自由权，即使只是过境到该国的另一部分，而且有很大的因为它而兴奋。有几个人被捕了，报纸上也议论纷纷。

“我认为南方不会支持这件事。它给我们的生意带来了麻烦，它一定也在为其他人做同样的事情。总有一天，我们会在这里分裂，这就像命中注定一样。” 他用最模糊的口音说话。

“我想，它快到了，”考珀伍德轻声说。“根据我的判断，它无法治愈。黑人不值得这么兴奋，但他们会继续为他鼓动——情绪化的人总是这样做。他们没有别的事可做。这正在损害我们的南方贸易。”

“我是这么想的。这就是人们告诉我的。”

年轻的考珀伍德外出时，他转向了一位新客户，但这个男孩再次给他留下了深刻的印象，因为他对财务问题有着无法形容的稳健和深刻的思考。“如果那个年轻人想要一个地方，我会给他的，”他想。

终于，有一天他对他说：“你想试试你的手，为我做一个换衣服的地板人吗？我这里需要一个年轻人。我的一位职员要走了。”

“我愿意，”考帕伍德回答说，微笑着，看起来非常满意。“我曾经想过亲自和你谈谈。”

“好吧，如果你准备好了并且可以做出改变，这个地方就开放了。你什么时候来都行。”

“我必须在另一个地方发出合理的通知，”Cowperwood 平静地说。“你介意等一两周吗？”

“一点也不。它没有那么重要。你一能理清事情就来。我不想给你的雇主带来不便。”

仅两周后，弗兰克就离开了 Waterman & Company，对他的新前景很感兴趣，但并不慌张。George Waterman 先生非常悲痛。至于亨利沃特曼先生，他实际上被这种叛逃激怒了。

“为什么，我想，”当考帕伍德告诉他他的决定时，他用力地喊道，“你喜欢这个行业。是工资的问题吗？”

“不，一点也不，沃特曼先生。只是我想进入直截了当的经纪业务。”

“嗯，那确实太糟糕了。对不起。我不想敦促你违背自己的最佳利益。你知道你在做什么。但乔治和我几乎同意过一会儿让你对这件事感兴趣。现在你正在接机离开。为什么，该死的，伙计，这个行业有很多钱。”

“我知道，”考帕伍德笑着说，“但我不喜欢。我还有其他计划。我永远不会成为一个谷物和佣金的人。” 亨利·沃特曼先生几乎无法理解为什么他对这一领域明显的成功不感兴趣。他担心自己的离职会对公司造成影响。

一旦做出改变，Cowperwood 就确信这项新工作在各个方面都更适合他——当然，既简单又更有利可图。首先，Tighe & Co. 的公司与 Waterman & Co. 的公司不同，它位于南三街 66 号一座漂亮的灰绿色石头建筑中，在当时以及之后的许多年里，金融区的中心。在国内和国际上具有影响力和声誉的大型机构近在咫尺——德崇证券公司、爱德华克拉克公司、第三国民银行、第一国民银行、证券交易所和类似机构。附近还有几乎 20 家较小的银行和经纪公司。Edward Tighe，这个问题的负责人和大脑，是一个波士顿爱尔兰人，一个移民的儿子，在那个保守的城市里生活得很好。他来费城是为了对那里的投机生活产生兴趣。“当然，对于我们这些清醒的人来说，这是一个合适的好地方，”他带着轻微的爱尔兰口音告诉他的朋友，他认为自己非常清醒。他是个中等身材的男人，不是很胖，略显早熟的灰色，举止活泼、和蔼，同时又好斗、自信。他的上唇留着短短的灰色胡须。举止既活泼、和蔼，又好斗、自力更生。他的上唇留着短短的灰色胡须。举止既活泼、和蔼，又好斗、自力更生。他的上唇留着短短的灰色胡须。

“愿上帝保佑我，”他来到那里不久后说道，“这些宾夕法尼亚人从不为他们可以发行债券的任何东西买单。” 那个时期，宾夕法尼亚的信用，就此而言，费城的信用非常糟糕，尽管它拥有巨大的财富。“如果发生战争，就会有成群结队的宾夕法尼亚人四处游行，为他们的饭菜提供便条。如果我能活得够久，我就能通过购买宾夕法尼亚州的票据和债券发家致富。我想他们会付出一些时间；但是，我的上帝，他们太慢了！在州政府追回他们现在欠我的利息之前，我已经死了。”

这是真的。国家和城市的财政状况是最应受谴责的。州和城市都足够富有；但是在这两种情况下，掠夺国库的计划太多了，以至于当必须进行任何新工作时，都必须发行债券来筹集资金。这些债券，或认股权证，正如他们所说的那样，质押利率为 6%。但是当利息到期时，城市或州的财政部长没有支付利息，而是根据情况在利息上盖上出示日期，然后凭单不仅按其原始面值计息，而且按金额计息然后到期利息。换句话说，它正在慢慢复合。但这对想要筹集资金的人没有帮助，因为作为担保，他们不能抵押超过 70%。他们的市场价值，他们不是按平价出售，而是按九十平价出售。一个人可能会在丧失抵押品赎回权的情况下购买或接受它们，但他要等很长时间。此外，在大多数人的最后支付中，偏袒占主导地位，因为只有当财务主管知道某些认股权证在“朋友”手中时，他才会宣传这样那样的认股权证——他所知道的那些特定的认股权证——会得到报酬的。

更重要的是，美国的货币体系直到那时才开始慢慢从近乎混乱的状态转变为更接近秩序的状态。尼古拉斯·比德尔 (Nicholas Biddle) 的前身美国银行 (United States Bank) 已于 1841 年完全消失，而美国财政部及其子财政系统 (sub-treasury system) 则于 1846 年出现；但是仍然有很多很多野猫银行，数量足以使普通的交易所柜台经纪人成为有偿付能力和资不抵债机构的活百科全书。不过，事情正在慢慢好转，因为电报促进了股票市场报价，不仅在纽约、波士顿和费城之间，而且在费城当地经纪人办公室和他的证券交易所之间。换句话说，引入了短专用线。沟通更快捷、更自由，

南部、东部、北部和西部都修建了铁路。当时还没有股票行情机，也没有电话，票据交换所也是最近才在纽约想到的，还没有在费城引进。信使每天在银行和经纪公司之间运行，而不是清算所服务，平衡存折上的账户，交换账单，并且每周一次转移金币，这是唯一可以接受到期余额的东西，因为没有稳定的国家货币。“On ‘change”，当宣布当天交易结束的锣声响起时，一群年轻人，按照从伦敦借来的系统，被称为“结算员”，聚集在房间中央，比较或收集一天中的各种交易，从而消除了某些公司之间自然相互抵消的所有销售和转售。他们拿着长长的帐簿，并大声说出交易——“特拉华和马里兰卖给了博蒙特公司”，“德尔华和马里兰卖给了泰赫公司”，等等。这简化了各个公司的簿记，并促进了更快、更激动人心的商业交易。

“找零”的座位每个卖两千美元。交易所的成员刚刚通过规则，将交易时间限制在十点到三点之间（在此之前，他们一直是早上到午夜之间的任何时间），并且已经确定了经纪人可以开展业务的利率，以应对削减-以前举行过的喉咙计划。对不服从的人规定了严厉的惩罚。换句话说，事情正在形成一个伟大的“变革业务”，Edward Tighe 和其他经纪人一样，认为前面有一个美好的未来。

https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/1840
https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/1840/pg1840-images.html

第一章
“我是，”雷吉·曼恩说，“见到这个露西·杜普里真是太激动了。”

“谁告诉你她的？” 艾伦·蒙塔古问。

“Ollie 一直在跟大家谈论她，”Reggie 说。“听起来真的很棒。但我担心他一定是夸大了。”

“当人们谈论露西时，他们似乎有夸张的倾向，”蒙塔古说。

“我对她很着迷，”雷吉说。

艾伦·蒙塔古看着他笑了笑。雷吉没有明显的激动迹象。他是来带爱丽丝去教堂的，他打扮得很精致，喷了香水，纽扣孔上别着一朵漂亮的猩红色兰花。蒙塔古懒洋洋地靠在一张大皮椅上看着他，想到雷吉把露西当作一朵新花，他可以带着它在大街上炫耀并引起注意，不禁笑了起来。

“她大还是小？” 雷吉问。

“她和你差不多大，”蒙塔古说——确实很小。

爱丽丝这时候进来了，穿着一身新春装。雷吉跳了起来，用他不可避免的热情向她打招呼。

当他问：“你也认识她吗？”

“谁？露西？爱丽丝问。“我和她一起上学。”

“Dupree 法官的种植园就在我们旁边，”Montague 说。“我们都是一起长大的。”

“在她结婚之前，我几乎没有一天没有见过她，”爱丽丝说。“她十七岁就结婚了，你知道的——嫁给了一个比她年长得多的男人。”

“从那以后我们就再也没有见过她，”另一个人补充道。“她住在新奥尔良。”

“现在只有二十二岁了，”雷吉惊呼道。“寡妇的全部智慧和天真无邪的风度！” 他举起双手表示钦佩。

“她有钱吗？” 他问。

“她受够了新奥尔良，”是回答。“我不知道纽约怎么样。”

“啊，好吧，”他若有所思地说，“到处都是钱。”

他把爱丽丝带到她的虔诚中去，让蒙塔古去回忆露西杜普里的回忆。

艾伦·蒙塔古一生中爱过露西五六次。它从她还是个婴儿的时候就开始了，断断续续地持续到她结婚为止。露西是克里奥尔式的美人，乌黑的头发和华丽的肤色。艾伦无论走到哪里，都带着喜悦的面孔，表情敏捷、灵动，泪水和笑声像四月的倾盆大雨划过天空。

正如他所说，露西是一个微小的生物，但她是充满活力的源泉。从第一个小时起，她就是一个孤独的家庭的生命，所有靠近她的人都会屈服于她的魅力。艾伦记得有一次他走进屋子，看到严肃而可敬的州首席大法官双手双膝跪地，露西坐在他的背上。

人人都说她是天生的演员。不到四岁的时候，她会在本该睡着的时候躺在床上，给自己讲一些悲惨的故事让她流泪。没过多久，她就发现了好几柜子的衣服，里面装满了她母亲在旧种植园社会当美女时穿过的衣服；然后露西就会有画面和戏剧，并会以东方公主或夜之女王的角色让所有观众大吃一惊。

她的母亲在她很小的时候就去世了，她是在父亲的陪伴下长大的。杜普里法官是附近的富人之一，他把一切都倾注在女儿身上。但人们都说露西会因为没有女人的呵护而受苦，而这个预言也不幸应验了。来了一个男人，比她年长很多，但身上散发着浪漫的魅力；爱的奇妙突然向露西显露了出来，并以前所未有的情感席卷了她。

有一天她消失了，蒙塔古再也没有见过她。他知道她去了新奥尔良生活，听说她很不开心，她的丈夫是个浪​​荡子，浪荡子。结婚后不到一年，蒙塔古就听说了他在开车时出车祸身亡的故事。

直到他来到纽约后不久，他才听到更多消息，当时国内的报纸报道了杜普里法官的死讯。大约一周前，露西给他的弟弟奥利弗·蒙塔古 (Oliver Montague) 写了一封信，说她要来纽约，也许要永久居住，并请他与她见面，并为她安排一家旅馆的住宿。 .

蒙塔古想知道当他再次见到她时她会是什么样子。他想知道五年的痛苦和经历会对她产生什么影响；这是否会削弱她的热情并使她的快乐之泉枯竭。露西变得认真是他难以想象的事情。

当他不相信想起她所带来的快感时，又会产生怀疑的情绪。她能否继续保持自己的魅力，与生活带给他的一切竞争？

他的幻想被奥利弗打断了，奥利弗进来问他是否愿意去见她。“那些南方火车总是晚点几个小时，”他说。“我让我的男人过去‘给我打电话’。”

“你要让她负责，”蒙塔古说。“你最好先见见她。告诉她我晚上来。” 于是他去了很棒的公寓旅馆——奥利弗最初介绍他的那家旅馆。还有露西。

她还是一样。他可以立即看到它；有同样的喜悦，同样的热切；也有一样的美，让男人心跳加速。她的容貌上没有丝毫的忧伤——她就像一朵盛开的完美花朵。

她向他走来，伸出双手。“艾伦！” 她叫道：“艾伦！见到你真高兴！” 她抓住他的手，站在那里凝视着他。“妈的，你长多大了，多认真啊！他不是很棒吗，奥利？”

奥利弗站在一旁看着。他干巴巴地笑了笑。“他对我来说有点太史诗了，”他说。

“哦，天哪，见到你真是太好了！” 她惊呼。“它让我一下子想到五十件事。我们必须坐下来好好谈谈。我要问你所有我必须问的问题要花一晚上的时间。”

露西正在为她的父亲哀悼，但她想方设法让她的服装成为她美丽的框架。在黑色天鹅绒的衬托下，她就像一颗燃烧的红宝石。“告诉我你过得怎么样，”她继续说道。“你在上面发生了什么事？你妈妈好吗？”

“还是一样，”蒙太古说。“她要你明天早上过来。”

“我会的，”露西说，“第一件事，在我去任何地方之前。还有露西妈妈！露西妈妈好吗？”

“她很好，”他回答道。“她看到你就发疯了。”

“告诉她我来了！” 她说。“我宁愿看露西嬷嬷，也不愿看布鲁克林大桥！”

她领着他坐到座位上，站在他对面，用目光吞噬着他。“看到你，这让我看起来又像个女孩了，”她说。

“你觉得自己老了吗？” 蒙塔古笑着问道。

“哦，我觉得自己老了，”露西说，脸上突然露出恐惧的表情，“你不知道，艾伦。但我不想让任何人知道这件事！” 然后她急切地喊道：“你还记得果园里的秋千吗？你还记得大鳄鱼住的游泳池吗？柿子呢？老乔呢？

艾伦蒙塔古记得所有这些事情；在接下来的半个小时里，自从露西可以走路以来，他与奥利弗和露西经历的几乎所有激动人心的冒险几乎都记起来了。他告诉她所有邻居的最新消息，以及她记得的所有仆人。他还告诉她他父亲的死，房子如何被烧毁，以及他们如何卖掉种植园并来到北方。

“你好吗，艾伦？” 她问。

“我在从事法律工作，”他说。“我没有发大财，但我设法支付了我的账单。这比这个城市的其他一些人做的还多。”

“我应该想象得到，”露西说。“第五大道那一排商店！哦，我知道我会在第一周花光我所有的东西。还有这家旅馆——哎呀，太可怕了。”

“奥利弗已经告诉你价格了，是吗？” 蒙塔古笑着说。

“他让我无法呼吸，”露西说。“我怎么能处理这些事情呢？”

“你必须和他解决这个问题，”蒙塔古说。“他已经负责了，他不想让我干涉。”

“但我需要你的建议，”露西说。“你是个商人，而奥利从来都只是个男孩。”

“奥利在纽约后学到了很多东西，”另一位回应道。

“我可以很快地告诉你我这边的情况，”停顿片刻后他继续说。“他把我带到这里，并说服我，如果我想进入社会，这就是我应该过的生活。我尝试了一段时间，但我发现我不喜欢我必须做的事情，所以我放弃了。您会在距第五大道几个街区远的公寓里找到我们，而我们只需支付大约十分之一的费用。而现在，你是跟随我还是跟随奥利取决于你是否想进入社会。”

露西皱着眉头若有所思。“我来纽约不是为了躲进寄宿公寓，”她说。“我确实想见见人。”

“嗯，”蒙塔古说，“奥利弗认识很多人，他会介绍给你的。也许你会喜欢它们——我不知道。我相信你不会有任何困难让他们喜欢你。”

“谢谢您，先生，”露西说。“你还是一如既往的天真！”

“我不想说什么破坏你的乐趣，”另一个说。“你自己会发现一些事情。但我很想告诉你——你别太天真了。你不能像在家里那样自由地信任别人。”

“谢谢你，”露西说。“奥利已经在教训我了。我不知道来纽约是一件如此严肃的事情。我告诉他，寡妇通常应该知道如何照顾自己。”

“我自己也过得很糟糕，正在适应各种情况，”蒙塔古笑着说。“所以你必须体谅我的预感。”

“我已经跟露西谈过一些了，”奥利弗冷冷地插话。

“他给我讲了一个最迷人的爱情故事！” 露西说，眼睛里闪烁着调皮的光芒，注视着他。“我一定会留意令人眼花缭乱的温妮夫人。”

“你明天晚上可以去见她，”奥利弗插话道。“你被邀请到比利奥尔登夫人家吃晚饭。”

“我在报纸上读到过比利太太，”露西说。“但我从没想过会见到她。奥利弗到底是怎么跳到事情中间的？”

奥利弗开始解释；蒙塔古坐在一旁，看着他哥哥对自己的社会生涯经过仔细删改的描述，暗自微笑。奥利弗显然已经制定了计划，要负责照管露西，并护送她登上社交平台上的一个高位。

“但是告诉我，这一切要花这么多钱！” 露西抗议道。“而且我不想嫁给这些可怕的百万富翁中的一个。”

她突然转向蒙塔古。“你在市中心的某个地方有办公室吗？” 她问。“我明天可以来看你，让你做我的商业顾问吗？你知道，老福尔摩斯先生死了。他曾经是父亲的律师，我的事情他都知道。他从不认为有必要向我解释任何事情，所以现在我不太清楚自己有什么，也不知道自己能做什么。”

“我会尽我所能帮助你，”蒙塔古回答道。

“而且你必须对我很严厉，”露西继续说道，“不能让我花太多钱，也不能犯任何错误。福尔摩斯先生过去就是这样做的，自从他死了，我一直不敢相信自己。

“如果我要为你扮演那个角色，”蒙塔古笑着说，“恐怕我们很快就会和我哥哥发生冲突。”

蒙塔古对自己担任这个角色的能力几乎没有信心。当他看着露西时，他有一种悲剧即将来临的感觉。根据纽约的财富标准，他知道的足够多，可以肯定露西并不富有；他觉得这座城市的诱惑已经在她身上了。汽车、商店、旅馆和剧院的景象，以及这些向她展示的所有奇迹，让她眼花缭乱。她是带着慷慨的热情而来的。她饿得要命。

蒙塔古经历过磨难，他对未来的看法如此清晰，以至于他不可能不尝试引导她，并使她免于犯下最严重的错误。因此，他们之间产生了一种奇怪的关系；从一开始，露西就把他当作她的知己，把她所有的烦恼都告诉了他。可以肯定的是，她从来没有采纳过他的建议。她会带着漂亮的笑声说，她不想让他给她添麻烦，只是希望他事后同情她。蒙塔古跟着她。他一遍又一遍地告诉自己，露西没有任何借口。但他一直在找借口。

第二天早上她去看了奥利弗的妈妈，还有露西嬷嬷，露西嬷嬷是以她祖母的名字命名的。然后在下午，她和爱丽丝一起去购物——宣称她不可能出现在纽约的任何地方，直到她让自己变得“体面”。傍晚，蒙塔古来找她，带她去了比利·奥尔登夫人位于第五大道的宫殿。

在路上，他给她讲了可怕的比利太太和她那可怕的舌头来消磨时光。以及这位伟大的女士和她的亲戚沃林家族之间的战争。“你一定不要感到惊讶，”他说，“如果她把你逼到墙角，问起你的一切。比利夫人是一个享有特权的人物，惯例不适用于她。

蒙塔古此时已经把奥尔登的壮丽视为理所当然，但他觉得露西对总督宫殿的景象兴奋不已，那里有黑色的大理石雕刻和猩红色和金色的走狗。接着是比利夫人本人，她身穿深紫色锦缎，光彩夺目，脖子上挂着几串珍珠。她的身高几乎可以越过露西的头顶，她站得稍微远一点，以便舒服地看着她。

“我试着让温妮夫人来这里等你，”她对蒙塔古说，同时把他放在她的右手边。“可是她不能来，所以你只好和我亲热了。”

“你们在密西西比州还有更多这样的美女吗？” 她问，当他们就座时。“如果是这样，我不明白你为什么会来这里。”

“你喜欢她，是吗？” 他问。

“我喜欢她的容貌，”比利太太说。“她懂事吗？很难相信她是个寡妇。她同样需要有人照顾她。”

“我会向你推荐她，”蒙塔古说。“我一直跟她说起你。”

“你跟她说了什么？” 比利太太平静地问道，“我在桥牌上赢了太多钱，晚餐时喝苏格兰威士忌吗？” 然后，看到蒙塔古涨红了脸，她笑了。“我知道这是真的。我发现你有六次这样的想法。”

她伸手去拿管家刚刚放在她面前的醒酒器，开始帮自己拿开玻璃杯。

蒙塔古把露西的事都告诉了她。与此同时，他看着坐在桌子中央附近的后者，正在和斯坦利莱德交谈。蒙塔古在温妮夫人家和这个人打过一两次桥牌，他心里想，露西几乎找不到一个能在自己身上体现更多大都会魅力的人了。Ryder 是 Gotham Trust Company 的总裁，这家机构的宏伟大理石正面是第五大道的景点之一。他不到五十岁，身材高大，相貌出众，留着铁灰色的小胡子，一副外交家的风度。他不仅是银行家，还是文化人；他年轻时曾出海，游历过世界各国。他也是一位业余作家，如果说有哪本书他没读过，那也不是人们在社会上容易听到的一本书。他可以谈论任何话题，一位能够邀请斯坦利莱德参加她的晚宴的女主人通常指望成功。“这些忙碌的日子里，他很少出去，”比利太太说。“但我告诉他你朋友的事。”

桌上的谈话时不时会变得一般，蒙塔古注意到总是莱德在领导。他机智的闪光在桌子上来回闪动。而那些与他较量的人，几乎都以失败告终。这是一种肆无忌惮的机智，耀眼而危险。莱德是那种人们在社会上偶尔会遇到的人，他为了出人头地而采纳了激进的思想。对于一个在特定社会环境中取得辉煌成功的人来说，在他的谈话中打破那个环境的所有理想和习俗是一件好事，从而揭示他对他所获得的成功是多么不关心。

晚宴上非常有趣。但蒙塔古微笑着想，斯坦利莱德与人们想象中的一家庞大而繁荣的银行的负责人相差甚远。当他们回到客厅后，他走到钢琴前，弹奏了一段可怕的俄罗斯组曲中的乐章，从而使不协调达到高潮。

之后，蒙塔古看到他和露西·杜普雷一起漫步到温室。桥牌人数太多了，这是一个很好的借口；但是蒙塔古坐在餐桌旁让比利太太赢他的钱时，仍然感到不安。

考验结束，派对散场后，他发现他的朋友坐在比利夫人温室的喷泉边，目不转睛地注视着她的前方，莱德则在她身边说话。

“你遇到了一个有趣的人，”当他们在马车里安顿下来时，他说。

“我见过的最非凡的人之一，”露西迅速说道。“我希望你能告诉我关于他的事。你很了解他吗？

“我听他说过一些话，我以商业方式了解他。”

“他这么有钱吗？” 她问。

“他有几百万，”他说。“而且我想他正在非常迅速地把它们翻过来。人们说他是一个大胆的投机者。”

“投机者！” 露西惊呼道。“怎么，我还以为他是银行行长呢！”

“当你在纽约待过一段时间，”蒙塔古笑着说，“你会发现两者之间没有什么不相容的。”

露西沉默了，听了这话有些吃惊。“有人告诉我，”蒙塔古笑着补充道，“即使莱德的妻子也不会把她的钱存入哥谭信托。”

蒙塔古没有预料到这句话的效果。露西突然吃了一惊。“他的老婆！” 她惊呼。

“嗯，是的，”蒙塔古说。“你不知道他结婚了吗？”

“不，”露西低声说。“我没有。”

长久的沉默。最后她问道：“为什么没有邀请他的妻子参加晚宴？”

“他们很少一起出去，”蒙塔古说。

“他们分开了吗？” 她问。

“有一种新的、时髦的分离方式，”答案是。“他们住在一座大宅子的对面，在正式场合见面。”

“她是什么样的女人？” 露西问，

“我对她一无所知，”他回答道。

又是一片寂静。最后蒙塔古说：“你明白，没有理由为他难过。”

露西用她的手轻轻地碰了碰他的手。

“没关系，艾伦，”她说。“不用担心。我不容易犯同样的错误两次。”

在蒙塔古看来，在那之后就没有什么可说的了。

第二章
露西想到蒙塔古的办公室跟他谈谈生意；但他不想给她添麻烦，第二天早上他进城前拜访了她的公寓。她给他看了她所有的文件。她父亲的遗嘱，包括一份他的财产清单，还有福尔摩斯先生的账目，以及她在新奥尔良的财产的租金清单。正如蒙塔古所预料的那样，露西的事情并没有处理好，他有很多事情要调查，有很多问题要问。有一些房地产和建筑物抵押，另一方面，露西自己的一些财产被抵押了，这种情况她无法解释。有几家工业公司的股票，蒙塔古对此知之甚少。

“无论如何，你都知道这件事，”露西说。“你卖掉自己的股份了吗？”

“不，”蒙塔古说。“父亲希望我能像其他人一样遵守约定。”

“我可以自由出售我的，不是吗？” 露西问。

“我当然应该建议你卖掉它，”蒙塔古说。“但恐怕要找到买家并不容易。”

可以说，北密西西比河是一条铁路，蒙塔古是伴随着这条铁路长大的。在他的记忆中，两家人无时无刻不在谈论这件事。它从阿特金到奥帕拉，大约五十英里的距离，在后者与该州的主要线路之一相连。这是杜普里法官计划的一项事业，作为开辟他对未来充满信心的国家的一部分的手段。

它是在那个街区对华尔街非常不信任的时候进行的；杜普里法官从他自己的朋友和邻居那里筹集了两百万美元，他自己又筹集了五十万美元，他们之间达成了君子协议，即这条公路不会向北方资本家求情，它的股票应该永远不会在交易所上市。第一任总裁是露西的叔叔，现任总裁是家族的一位老朋友。

但是筹集资金的地区自豪感无法提供交通。杜普里法官想象中的城镇并没有成为现实，小铁路也跟不上时代的进步。在过去十年左右的时间里，它的资产一直在贬值，收益也在下降，蒙塔古已经好几年没有从他父亲支付面值的价值五万美元的股票中提取任何股息了。

当他与露西谈论这一切时，他想起了大约十年或十二年前提出的一个项目，即从阿特金延伸线路以连接密西西比钢铁公司的工厂，并给予关注一个直接向西的出口。密西西比钢铁公司拥有该国六家最大的板材和钢轨厂之一，而即使是指挥其庞大货运的一小部分的想法也一直困扰着北密西西比州的董事们。

他们甚至进行了调查，并对拟议延期的成本进行了仔细估算。蒙塔古知道这件事，因为碰巧他和露西的兄弟现在在加利福尼亚，他假期的一部分时间是在一次狩猎旅行中度过的，期间他们在勘测队附近扎营。拟议的线路必须穿过 Talula 沼泽，这就是该项目的不确定性所在。有十几条路线被提议，Montague 记得一天晚上他是如何坐在篝火旁，并与聚会中的一位年轻人，听他抱怨调查失误。他认为首席测量师不称职，

蒙塔古把这个八卦告诉了他父亲，但他不知道他父亲是否调查过这件事。他只知道，当提议的扩建项目在股东大会上提出时，人们发现这项工作的成本如此之高，以至于不可能筹集到资金。去密西西比钢铁公司的提议被否决了，因为密西西比钢铁公司掌握在华尔街人士手中；那时，杜普里法官和蒙塔古将军都没有意识到这条小铁路的困境是多么绝望。

所有这些事情都在露西和蒙塔古的谈话中提到了。他向她保证，他们没有理由继续持有股票；如果通过拟议的延期或任何其他计划，新的资本家可以使公司取得成功，那么最好与他们进行某种合并，或者更好的是，完全出售。蒙塔古答应他会着手处理这件事，看看他能做些什么。

当他进城时，他第一个想到的是吉姆·黑根。“找个时间来看我，”赫根说，而蒙塔古从未接受过邀请。当然，北密西西比河对赫根这样的人来说只是一件小事，但谁能说出他能将它纳入哪些新计划呢？蒙塔古从街上的谣言得知这位伟大的金融家已经卖掉了他在两三个最重要的企业中的所有股份。

他立刻去了 Hegan 的办公室，在市中心一家大型保险公司的大楼里。他穿过大理石走廊，来到一扇装饰华丽的青铜门前，门后站着一个穿着制服的巨大守护者，同样装饰华丽。蒙塔古通常被认为是个大人物，但这个人物让他觉得自己像个办公室小子。

“黑根先生在吗？” 他问。

“你打电话预约吗？” 是回应。

“不完全是，”蒙塔古说，拿出一张卡片。“请您将此发送给 Hegan 先生好吗？”

“你认识黑根先生吗？” 男人问道。

“我知道，”蒙塔古回答。

另一个没有任何迹象，就蒙塔古而言，但就在这时，一位衣冠楚楚的年轻秘书从门后的门出现了。“请您说明您希望与赫根先生会面的事情？” 他说。

“我想亲自见见赫根先生，”蒙塔古回答道，语气中带着些许生硬，“如果您愿意收下这张名片，就足够了。”

他尽可能优雅地接受了秘书的快速检查，同时想知道他的新春季大衣是否足够新，根据秘书的判断，他有资格成为伟大的朋友里面的人。最后那人拿着名片消失了，半分钟后回来，满脸笑容。他把蒙塔古领进了一间巨大的办公室，里面的皮垫椅子大得足以坐下几个人，但又太大了，一个人坐着都不舒服。墙上挂着一张大陆地图，吉姆·赫根的铁路横跨其间，就像猩红色的丝带。还有野牛和驯鹿的头，是赫根开枪自杀的。

蒙塔古只需要等一两分钟，然后他就在陪同下穿过一连串的房间，最后来到了权贵的密室。这是朴素的，带着一种精心设计的朴素，吉姆赫根坐在一张平坦的桃花心木桌子前，上面没有一张纸片。

当另一个人进来时，他站了起来，伸展着巨大的身躯。“你好吗，蒙塔古先生？” 他说着握了握手。然后他在椅子上坐下，向后靠去，直到他的头靠在椅背上，皱起他那粗大的眉毛，注视着他的来访者。

上次蒙塔古见到赫根时，他们谈到了马，还谈到了在得克萨斯州的旧时光。但蒙塔古很聪明，意识到这是在晚上。“我是来办事的，黑根先生，”他说。“所以我会尽可能简短。”

“我尽力原谅的行为，”微笑着回答。

“我想建议你对北密西西比铁路的事务感兴趣，”另一个说。

“北密西西比州？” 黑根皱着眉头说。“我从来没有听说过。”

“我不认为很多人有，”另一个人回答，然后继续讲述这句话的故事。

“我自己有 500 股股票，”他说，“但它在我家里已经有很长时间了，我非常满意让它留在那里。我不是为了我自己提出这个建议，而是为了一个拥有 5000 股股票的客户。我这里有几年来这条公路的年度报告，以及一些关于公路状况的其他信息。我的想法是，你可能愿意走这条路，并提出扩建密西西比钢铁公司的工程。”

“密西西比钢铁公司！” 赫根惊呼道。他显然听说过。

“你说这个计划是多久前被调查过的？” 他问。蒙塔古向他讲述了这次调查的经过，以及他自己听说的事情。

“这听起来很奇怪，”黑根说着，眉头微蹙，显然在深思。“我会调查这件事，”他最后说道。“我没有自己的计划会带我去那个街区，但我可能会想到一个感兴趣的人。你知道你的客户想要那千股吗？”

“我的委托人已将此事交由我处理，”他回答道。“这件事是今天早上才向我提出的，我将不得不进一步调查道路状况。我应该建议她接受一个公平的报价——比如股票面值的百分之七十五。”

“我们可以稍后再谈，”黑根说，“如果我能为你找到那个人的话。” 蒙塔古与他握手后离开了。

晚上他在回家的路上停下来告诉露西他的面试结果。“我们很快就会收到他的消息，”他说。“我不认为赫根是一个需要很长时间才能下定决心的人。”

“我会为他祈祷，”露西笑着说。然后她补充说：“我想我周五晚上会在哈维先生家见你。”

“我要到星期六下午才会出来，”他说。“我这几天很忙，正在处理一个案子。但我试着找时间去齐格弗里德·哈维那里；我好像和他合得来。”

“他们告诉我他喜欢骑马，”露西说。

“他有一个很棒的马厩，”他回答道。

“奥利带他回来真是太好了，”她说。“我当然已经陷入了困境。你觉得我明天会做什么？”

“我不知道，”他说。

“我受邀参观沃特曼先生的艺术画廊。”

“丹沃特曼的！” 他惊呼。“那是怎么发生的？”

“太太。奥尔登的哥哥问我。他认识他，并给了我邀请。你不想去吗？

“我明天一整天都要在法庭上忙，”蒙塔古说。“但我想看看这个系列。我知道这是一件了不起的事情——老人把所有的空闲时间都花在了这上面。你听到过关于他为此付出的代价的惊人估计——至少有四五百万。”

“但他到底为什么要把它藏在哈德逊河上游的工作室里呢？” 露西叫道。

另一个人耸了耸肩。“只是一时兴起，”他说。“他收集它不是为了取悦别人。”

“好吧，只要他让我看到，我就无怨无悔，”露西说。“这座城市可看的东西太多了，估计要忙一年。”

“你还没看一半就累了，”他回答道。“每个人都这样。”

“你认识沃特曼先生吗？” 她问。

“我从未见过他，”他说。“我见过他几次。” 蒙塔古继续告诉她在百万富翁俱乐部的情景，当时他看到华尔街的 Croesus 被一群出席的“小百万富翁”包围着。

“我希望我不会遇见他，”露西说。“我知道我应该被吓死。”

“他们说只要他想，他就可以很迷人，”蒙塔古回答说。“女士们喜欢他。”

星期六下午，当蒙塔古去哈维在长岛的家时，他的兄弟在渡口遇见了他。

“艾伦，”他立即开始说道，“你知道露西和斯坦利莱德一起来过这里吗？”

“天哪，不！” 蒙太古惊呼道。“莱德在下面吗？”

“他让哈维邀请他，”奥利弗回答道。“而且我知道这世界上没有任何理由，就是要和露西在一起。他用他的汽车带她出去。”

蒙太古目瞪口呆。

“她从来没有向我暗示过，”他说。

“老天为证！” 奥利弗惊呼道，“我想知道那个家伙是不是在追露西！”

蒙塔古站了一会儿，陷入沉思。“我不认为这对他有多大好处，”他说。“露西知道的太多了。”

“露西从未见过像斯坦利莱德这样的人！” 宣布另一个。“他一辈子都在猎杀女人，她根本不是他的对手。”

“你对他了解多少？” 蒙塔古问。

“他有什么我不知道的！” 另一个叫道。“他曾经爱上了贝蒂怀曼。”

“哦，我的上帝！” 蒙太古惊呼道。

“是的，”奥利弗说，“她把这一切都告诉了我。他的花样和魔术师一样多。他读了很多新思想的东西，谈到了他向往的灵魂，遇到的每一个女人都是他的缘分。再一次，他是一个自由思想家，他谈论自由和妇女的权利。他把所有的道德都拿来洗牌，直到你认为女人能扮演的最高贵角色就是已婚男人的情妇。”

蒙塔古忍不住笑了。“我知道你时不时会自己改变道德，奥利，”他说。

“是的，没关系，”另一个回答。“但这是露西。必须有人和她谈谈斯坦利莱德。”

“我会的，”蒙塔古回答。

当他下楼吃晚饭时，他在图书馆一个舒适的角落里找到了露西。她满脑子都是她在丹·沃特曼的艺术画廊里看到的所有美妙的东西。“还有艾伦，”她惊呼道，“你觉得呢，我见过他！”

“你不是那个意思！” 他说。

“他整个下午都在那儿！” 露西宣布。“除了对我好，他什么都没做！”

“那么你并没有发现他像你想象的那么可怕，”蒙塔古说。

“他非常迷人，”露西说。“他向我展示了他的全部收藏，并向我讲述了不同画作的历史，以及他如何获得这些画作的故事。我一生中从未有过这样的经历。”

“当他选择时，他可以成为一个有趣的人，”蒙塔古回应道。

“他太棒了！” 她说。“你看看那瘦削的身影，那张干瘪的老鹰的脸，周围全是白发，你会认为他正处于老年期。但当他说话时——我不奇怪人们会服从他！”

“他们服从他！” 蒙塔古说。“这一点没错！如果老丹·沃特曼认真追逐他，华尔街没有人能活 24 小时。”

“他到底是怎么做到的？” 露西问。“他这么有钱吗？”

“这不是他拥有的钱，”蒙塔古说。“这是他控制的。他是银行的主人；如果他愿意，任何人都不能在他不知情的情况下踏入华尔街。他可以破坏一个人的信用；他可以收回所有贷款。他可以摇摆市场以打破一个人。然后，想想他在华盛顿的权力！他把财政部当作他的分支机构之一来使用。”

“这看起来很可怕，”露西说。“还有那个老人——八十多岁！无论如何，我很高兴见到他。”

她停了下来，看到门口的斯坦利莱德。他显然是在找她。他带她去吃饭；时不时地，当蒙塔古偷看她一眼时，他发现莱德正在独占她的注意力。

晚饭后他们再去音乐室，莱德弹了几首肖邦的夜曲。在他玩耍的时候，他的目光从未从露西的脸上移开。“我声明，”贝蒂怀曼在蒙塔古的听证会上说，“斯坦利莱德在钢琴前做爱的方式绝对不雅。”

蒙塔古避开了好几次打牌的邀请，故意在晚上陪在露西身边。当斯坦利莱德终于厌恶地离开去吸烟室时，他转身对她说：“露西，你必须让我和你谈谈这件事。”

“我不介意你和我说话，艾伦，”她说。微弱地笑了笑。

“但你必须注意我，”他抗议道。“你真的不知道和你打交道的是哪种人，也不知道人们对他的看法。”

她静静地坐着，紧张地咬着嘴唇，而蒙塔古尽可能清楚地告诉她莱德的名声。她只能回答：“他真是个有趣的男人！”

“有很多有趣的人，”他说，“但如果你让人们这样谈论你，你将永远不会遇到他们。”

露西双手合十。

“艾伦，”她喊道，“我尽力说服他不要来这里。你是对的。我会按照你说的去做——老实说，我不会和他有任何关系。你会看到的！都是他自己来的，他在的时候可以找别人招待他。”

“我希望你能坦白地告诉他，露西，”蒙塔古说。“如果他生气了也没关系。让他了解你——一劳永逸。”

“我会——我会！” 她宣布。

蒙塔古判断她很快就兑现了诺言，莱德把剩下的时间用来招待大家。大约午夜时分，蒙塔古无意间走进了图书馆，他看到哥谭信托基金会的主席正站在一群兴高采烈地讨论离婚的人中间。“婚姻是一种罪恶，教会拒绝赦免！” 他听到斯坦利莱德惊呼。

第三章
这些事件发生几天后，蒙塔古正在等待一位朋友来他的旅馆吃饭。他正坐在大厅里看报纸，他注意到一位留着灰色山羊胡子、面色红润的老绅士从他前面走过走廊。一两分钟后，他碰巧抬头看了看这位先生。

后者吃了一惊，脸上浮现出一丝诧异之色。他走上前说：“请原谅，这不是艾伦·蒙塔古吗？”

“是的，”蒙塔古说，困惑地看着他。

“你不记得我了，是吗？” 另一个说。

“我必须承认我没有，”他的回答是。

“我是科尔上校。”

但蒙塔古只是更加困惑地皱起眉头。“科尔上校？” 他重复道。

“你还太小，不记得我了，”另一个说。“我来过你家十几次了。我在你父亲的旅里。

“的确！” 蒙太古惊呼道。“请再说一遍。”

“别提了，别提了，”另一个说，在他身边坐下。“我能想起你真是太了不起了。你弟弟好吗？他在纽约吗？”

“他是，”蒙塔古说。

“那你妈妈呢？她还活着，我相信？”

“哦，是的，”他说。“她在这家酒店。”

“真是一种非凡的享受！” 另一个叫道。“我认为我在纽约一个人都不认识。”

“你来这里参观？” 蒙塔古问。

“来自西方，”上校说。

“令人好奇的是事情是如何发展的，”他停顿了一下后继续说道。“就在今天，我一直在想你的父亲。我收到了一个人的提议，他想购买我在北密西西比铁路公司的一些股票。”

蒙塔古吃了一惊。“你不是那个意思！” 他说。

“是的，”另一个说。“你父亲说服我拿走一些股票，在过去。从那以后我就拥有了它。我已经忘记了这一切。”

蒙太古笑了。“当你处理完你的后，”他说，“你可以把你的派对交给我。我知道还有一些待售。”

“我毫不怀疑，”上校说。“但我想它现在卖不了多少了。我不记得收到过任何股息。”

有一个停顿。“这是一个奇怪的巧合，”另一个说。“我也一直在考虑铁路。我的朋友泰勒夫人刚从新奥尔良回来。她曾经是露西·杜普里。”

上校努力回忆。“杜普雷？” 他说。

“杜普里法官的女儿，”蒙塔古说。“他的兄弟约翰·杜普里 (John Dupree) 是这条道路的第一任总统。”

“哦，是的，”上校说。“当然，当然！我现在记得法官。你父亲告诉我他拿了很多股票。”

“是的，他是企业的主要推动者。”

“那位先生是谁？” 上校绞尽脑汁地说。“那个曾经经常待在他家里，对他如此感兴趣的人——”

“你是说李·戈登先生？” 蒙塔古说。

“是的，我想就是这个名字，”另一个回答道。

“他是我父亲的堂兄，”蒙塔古说。“他在这条路上投入了那么多钱，以致家里从此一贫如洗。”

“这是一次不幸的冒险，”上校说。“可惜我们的一些大资本家没有接受它并用它做点什么。”

“那是我的主意，”蒙塔古说。“我已经向一个人提出了。”

“的确？” 上校说。“可能这就是我的报价来源。他是谁？”

“是吉姆·黑根，”蒙塔古说。

“哦！” 上校说。“当然，”他补充说，“黑根会通过代理人进行谈判。”

“让我给你我的名片，”上校停顿了一下说。“我自己可能会引起某人对此事的兴趣。我有一些朋友相信南方的未来。你认为你能得到我多少股，你认为它们的成本是多少？”

蒙塔古拿出铅笔和纸，开始尽可能地回忆北密西西比州各种财产的位置。他和他的新朋友全神贯注于这个话题，他们从很多角度谈了谈。当蒙塔古的朋友到达时，上校已经掌握了所有的事实，他保证他会在几天内写信。

晚饭后，蒙塔古上楼去找他妈妈。“今晚我遇到了父亲的一位老朋友，”他说。

“他是谁？” 她问。

“科尔上校，”他说，蒙塔古夫人面无表情。

“科尔上校？” 她重复道。

“是的，就是这个名字，”蒙塔古说。“这是他的名片，”他把它拿出来。“Henry W. Cole，西雅图，华盛顿，”上面写着。

“但我从未听说过他，”蒙塔古夫人说。

“从没听说过他！” 蒙太古惊呼道。“为什么，他来过这所房子十几次了，他认识父亲、李堂兄、杜普里法官和每个人。”

但是蒙塔古夫人只是摇了摇头。“他可能在家里，”她说，“但我确信我从未被介绍给他。”

蒙塔古觉得这很奇怪，但如果不是第二天早上发生的事情，他绝不会进一步考虑这件事。由于有重要的工作要做，他很早就去了办公室。他是第一个到达的，他发现打扫办公室的女清洁工正要离开。

蒙塔古以前从没想过会有这样的人存在。当她跟他说话时，他有些吃惊地转过身来。

“对不起，先生，”她说。“但有一件事我必须告诉你。”

“它是什么？” 他说。

“有人想打听你，”女人说。

“你是什么意思？” 他困惑地问道。

“对不起，先生，”女人说，“但是今天早上有一个人来了，很早，他给了我钱，先生，他要我把我从你那里拿走的所有文件都留给他。废纸篓，先生。”

蒙塔古屏住了呼吸。“从我的废纸篓里拿出文件！” 他喘着粗气。

“是的，先生，”女人说。“这种事情时不时发生，先生——我们听说过这样的事情，你知道的。我们是可怜的女人——她们给我们的报酬不高。但你是一位绅士，先生，我告诉他我不会参与其中。”

“他是什么样的人？” 蒙太古问道。

“先生，他是个黑皮肤的家伙，”另一个说，“有点像犹太人。他也许会再次回来。”

蒙塔古掏出他的钱包，给了女人一张账单。她结结巴巴地道了谢，然后提着水桶和扫帚走了。

他关上门，走到自己的办公桌前坐下，瞪着眼前，喘着粗气：“我的天！”

突然，他愤怒地叫了一声，敲了敲膝盖。“我把我知道的都告诉了他！一切！他几乎不用问我问题！”

但话又说回来，惊奇淹没了他所有其他的情绪。“他到底想知道什么？谁派他来的？这意味着什么？

他回顾了与西雅图老先生的谈话，试图准确地回忆起他所说的内容，以及对方对这些信息的用途。但他不能很稳定地思考，因为他的思绪不断跳回到吉姆·赫根的思绪上。

这一切可能只有一种解释。吉姆·赫根派了侦探来抓他！没有其他人对北密西西比铁路一无所知，也没有人想知道它。

吉姆黑根！蒙塔古是在一次娱乐活动中认识他的——在德格拉芬里德夫人家！当一位绅士遇到另一个绅士时，他遇到了他，与他握手，自由，坦率地与他交谈！然后赫根派了一个侦探从他身上套出他的秘密，甚至还想弄到他垃圾桶里的东西！

在如此复杂的情况下，蒙塔古只能想到一个办法。他坐下来给他在百万富翁俱乐部的朋友维纳布尔少校写了一张便条，说他要到那里吃晚饭，希望有少校的陪伴。两三个小时后，当少校有足够的时间去刮胡子、喝咖啡和看早报时，他打电话叫来一名信使，并送去了便条。

少校的回答很及时。他没有订婚，他储存的信息和建议都为蒙塔古服务。但他的痛风很厉害，脾气也很暴躁，必须事先警告蒙塔古，他的医生不允许他吃蘑菇和肉。

蒙塔古总觉得，人类的脸不可能比少校的脸更亮。然而每次见到他，他都觉得紫色更亮一些。少校每走一步，它就会传播得更远。他咆哮着，抱怨着，低声发誓，而领班和他所有的助手在俱乐部的餐厅里匆匆忙忙地走来走去，这让旁观者感到很高兴。

蒙塔古一直等到老先生拿来他惯用的干马提尼酒，并解决了满足他的胃口和他的医生的问题。然后他讲述了他非凡的经历。

“我确信你能解释清楚，如果有人能解释的话，”他说。

“可是有什么好解释的呢？” 对方问道。“这只是意味着 Jim Hegan 对你的铁路感兴趣。你还能想要什么？”

“但是他派了一个侦探来找我！” 蒙塔古喘着粗气。

“不过没关系，”少校说。“每天都在做。有六个大机构什么都不做。如果他没有窃听你的电话，并在你看到电报和邮件之前阅读了你的电报和邮件，那你就很幸运了。”

蒙塔古惊恐地看着他。“像吉姆·黑根这样的人！” 他惊呼。“还有一个朋友。”

“一个朋友？” 少校说。“呸！男人不和朋友做生意。而且，除此之外，Jim Hegan 可能对此一无所知。他把这件事交给了某个下属，让他自己查一下，不把事实摆在他的案头上，他就不会再考虑了。他手下的某个人开始工作，他对此有点笨拙——仅此而已。”

“可是他为什么要知道我所有的家事？”

“为什么，他想知道你的处境，”另一个说——“你有多想卖掉股票。所以当他来和你做生意时，他会把你放在他想要的地方，而且他可能因此而获得 50% 的价格折扣。如果他没有在你的银行向你催收几笔贷款，那你就走运了。”

少校坐在那里看着蒙塔古，对他的天真微笑。“你说这条路是哪里？” 他问。“在密西西比？”

“是的，”蒙塔古说。

“我在想这件事，”另一个说。“根本不可能是 Jim Hegan。我相信没有人能让他对南方铁路感兴趣。他可能已经向其他人提到过。无论如何，你的路有什么用？

“我们有一个扩展它的计划，”蒙塔古说。

“将它运到密西西比钢铁公司的主要工厂只需要一两百万。”

少校吃了一惊。“密西西比钢铁公司！” 他惊呼。

“是的，”蒙塔古说。

“我的天啊！” 另一个叫道。

“有什么事？”

“你到底为什么要把这样的事情交给吉姆·赫根？” 维纳布尔少校问道。

“我把它带给他是因为我认识他，”蒙塔古说。

“但是，人们不会因为了解他们就把东西交给他们，”少校说。“一个人把他们带到合适的人那里。如果 Jim Hegan 能如愿以偿，他会把密西西比钢铁公司从美国地图上抹去。”

“你是什么意思？”

“你不知道，”少校说，“密西西比钢铁公司是托拉斯的主要竞争对手吗？老丹·沃特曼组织了钢铁托拉斯，并一直关注着它。”

“但这跟黑根有什么关系呢？”

“只是 Jim Hegan 在所有方面都与 Waterman 合作。”

蒙塔古沮丧地瞪着他。“我明白了，”他说。

“当然！” 少校说。“我亲爱的家伙，你为什么不在做那样的事情之前来找我？你应该去找密西西比钢铁公司的人；你应该悄悄地去，去见最高层的人。就您所知，您可能有一个非常重要的提议，但在混乱中被忽视了。你刚才说的调查是怎么回事？”

蒙塔古详细讲述了延期计划流产的故事、他的狩猎之旅以及他从中学到的东西。

“当然，”少校说，“你现在正处于事情的核心。钢铁公司的人反对你的计划。”

“你是什么意思？” 对方问道。

“他们买下了调查。从那以后，他们可能一直控制着你们的铁路，并一直保持下去。”

“但那是不可能的！他们与此事无关。”

“呸！” 少校说。“你怎么知道？”

“我认识总统，”蒙塔古说。“他是我们家族的老朋友。”

“是的，”是回答。“但是假设他们对他的生意有抵押？”

“但为什么不买下这条路就完事了呢？” 蒙塔古困惑地补充道。

另一个笑了。“我想起了怀曼的一句名言——‘我可以买董事，为什么还要买股票？’”

“是那些现在正在注视着你的人，”他停顿了一下后继续说道。“他们可能认为这是另一方的一些举动，他们正试图查明这件事。”

“谁拥有密西西比钢铁公司？” 蒙塔古问。

“我不知道，”少校说。“我想怀曼一定是不知何故参与进来的。难道你没注意到前几天在报纸上说，为他的三条横贯大陆的铁路提供铁轨的合同都交给了密西西比钢铁公司吗？”

“果然！” 蒙太古惊呼道。

“你看！” 少校笑着说。“你竟然跳进了蛙池中央，闹出多大的动静只有王知道！想一想这种情况。Steel Trust 过度资本化了 200%。由于征收关税，它能够在国内以比在国外高出 50% 的价格销售其产品；即便如此，它也必须继续削减股息！它的普通股减少到十股。它在各个方面都在削减开支，当然它也变成了烂产品。现在怀曼来了，他是华尔街唯一一个敢于向老丹·沃特曼挥拳的人；他向报纸提供了有关导致他的道路撞毁的劣质钢轨的所有事实；他将所有合同都交给了 Mississippi Steel Company，该公司正在低价出售信托基金。公司被订单淹没，其工厂日以继夜地运转。然后来了一个天真无邪的小傻瓜，他想把这条小铁路开到公司的后院；他把这个提议告诉了吉姆·赫根！”

少校在压抑的情绪中达到了高潮，笑声达到高潮，笑声摇晃着他红润的面庞，让他酸痛的脚趾一阵阵抽搐。至于蒙塔古，他感到谦卑了。

“你现在要做什么？” 他停顿了一下，问道。

“我看不出有什么可做的，”少校说，“除了紧紧抓住你的股票。也许如果你继续大声谈论你的延期，一些钢铁公司的人会以你自己的价格买断你。”

“无论如何，我吓了他们一跳，”蒙塔古笑着说。

“我可以赌一件事，”另一个说。“镇上某人的办公室发生了剧烈的震动！有一个人每天晚上都来这里，他可能听说过。那是威尔·罗伯茨。”

少校环顾了餐厅。“他现在来了，”他说。

在房间的另一端，进来了一个高大的黑发男人，表情敏锐，脚步轻快。“沉默的罗伯茨，”少校说。“让我们试试看他。” 当那人走近时，他向他打招呼。“你好！罗伯茨，你要去哪里？让我介绍一下我的朋友，Allan Montague 先生。

那人看着蒙塔古。“晚上好，先生，”他说。“你好吗，维纳布尔？”

“再糟糕不过了，谢谢，”少校说。“你在街上怎么样？”

“沉闷，非常沉闷，”罗伯茨在离开时说道。“情况看起来很糟糕，恐怕。太多人快速赚钱。”

少校笑了。“一个很好的观点，”他说，当罗伯茨听不见了——“来自一个在过去十年里赚了六千万的人！”

“看来他从来没有听说过我，”蒙塔古说。

“哦，相信他！” 少校说。“他可能本来打算今晚割掉你的喉咙，但你不会看到他转过眼皮。他就是那种人；他自己是钢铁做的，我相信。”

他停顿了一下，然后怀着怀旧的心情继续说：“我想你读过大罢工吧？是罗伯茨完成了这项工作。他使自己成为这个国家最令人痛恨的人——加德！报纸和政客过去是如何对他大发雷霆的！但他坚持自己的立场——他要么赢得那次攻击，要么死在这次尝试中。你知道，他几乎两样都做了。一名无政府主义者来到他的办公室朝他开了两枪；但他把那个家伙弄倒了，几乎要了他的命，他在病床上罢工，两周后他又回到了办公室。”

现在少校的八卦储藏室被打开了。他向蒙塔古讲述了钢铁之王的故事，讲述了他们恨过的男人和爱过的女人，以及他们生活中最隐秘的事情和秘密。威廉·H·罗伯茨 (William H. Roberts) 的职业生涯始于为伟大的钢铁大师服务，后来他成了他的死对头；而现在他活着只是为了争辩对手对荣耀的要求。让竞争对手建一个图书馆，罗伯茨会建两个。让竞争对手建一栋很棒的办公楼，罗伯茨会买下它周围的所有土地，建六栋，完全关掉它的灯。而“沉默的罗伯茨”日以继夜地谋划着，总有一天他会成为钢铁托拉斯的主人，而他的对手将无处可去。

“他们是活泼的家伙，钢铁的人群，”少校笑着说。“与他们做生意时，你必须睁大眼睛。”

“你会建议我做什么？” 另一个笑着问道。“派侦探追捕他们？”

“为什么不？” 少校严肃地问道。“为什么不查明是谁派那个科尔上校来见你的？并找出他多么需要你的小铁路，并让他相应地付出代价。”

“这不完全符合我的要求，”蒙塔古说。

“是时候学习了，”少校说。“我可以启动你。我认识一个侦探，你可以信任他。——无论如何，”他小心​​翼翼地补充道，“我不知道他有没有骗过我。

蒙塔古坐了一会儿陷入沉思。“你说了一些关于他们拿电话的事，”他说。“你真的是那个意思吗？”

“当然，”另一个说。

“你的意思是说他们可以查出我手机里发生了什么？”

“我的意思是告诉你，”他的回答是，“只要 250 美元，我就能给你一份速记报告，记录你 24 小时内在手机上说的每一个字，以及任何人说的每一个字。对你说。

“这听起来不可思议！” 蒙塔古说。“谁干的？”

“电线窃听器。这是一项危险的工作，但报酬很高。我有一个朋友，他曾做过一笔交易，电话公司对此很感兴趣，他们把他的电汇转到了另一家分行，他在对方上当之前就完成了他的生意。直到今天，你会注意到他的电话是“Spring”，尽管附近所有其他“电话”都是“John”。

“还有邮件？” 蒙塔古问。

“邮件！” 少校附和道。“还有什么比这更容易的呢？你可以拿一个人的邮件二十四小时，然后给每一封信都拍张照片。你可以对他寄出的每封信做同样的事情，除非他非常小心。你知道，他可以被跟踪，每次他丢下一封信，上面都会放一个蓝色或黄色的信封——向邮局工作人员发出信号。”

“可是那样的话，就得让这么多人知道了！”

“不是那种东西。那是邮局工作的一个常规分支。有些特勤人员一直在用这种方式监视罪犯。有什么比支付其中之一，并让你的敌人与嫌疑人名单更容易的呢？”

少校愉快地笑了笑。看到蒙塔古对他拍摄的城市腐败照片感到惊愕，他总是很高兴。

“还有比这更奇怪的事情，”他说。“我可以向你介绍一个人，他现在就在这个房间里，他正在与造船业的骗局作斗争，他拿到了很多重要的文件，然后把它们带到他的办公室，然后坐在一旁，而他的职员赚了 30 – 两份。他把原件和三十一份副本放在城里三十二个不同的保险库里，把另一份放在手提箱里带回家。那天晚上窃贼破门而入，手提箱不见了。第二天，他写信给与他作战的人，“我本来打算把我得到的文件的副本寄给你，但既然你已经有了副本，我就简单地概述一下我的提议。” 仅此而已。他们以一两百万安顿下来。

少校停顿了一下，朝餐厅另一头看了看。“Dick Sanderson 来了，”他说，指着一个衣冠楚楚的年轻人，他的脸庞刮得光光的。“他代表新泽西南部铁路。有一天，在晚餐时遇到他的另一位律师说：“我明天要对你的道路提起股东诉讼。” 他接着概述了这个案子，这是一个大案子。桑德森什么也没说，但他出去给他们在特伦顿的代理人打了电话，第二天早上，立法机构的两院通过了一项法案，规定了该案的诉讼时效。那个骗局的受害者现在是纽约州州长，如果你见过他，你可以问问他。”

停顿了一会儿。然后少校突然说：“哦，顺便说一句，你从密西西比州带大的这位美丽的寡妇——夫人。泰勒——是这个名字吗？”

“就是这样，”蒙塔古说。

“我听说斯坦利莱德很喜欢她，”另一个说。

蒙塔古的脸上出现了严肃的表情。“我很抱歉，真的，你听到了，”他说。

“为什么，”另一个说，“没关系。他会给她一段美好的时光。”

“露西是纽约的新人，”蒙塔古说。“我认为她不太了解莱德是个什么样的人。”

少校想了想，突然笑了起来。“她最好小心点，”他说。“我碰巧想到了——他们说斯坦利太太正准备摆脱婚姻关系；如果你迷人的寡妇不想上报纸，她最好小心点施恩惠。”

https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/5829
https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/5829/pg5829-images.html

Latin America Outlook 2023: Down, not out
https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights/investing/latin-america-outlook-2023-down-not-out

Contents

1. Executive summary and recommendations ……………………………………………………… 4
   1.1 Purpose of the review ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4
   1.2 Overview of our approach to the review ………………………………………………………………… 4
   1.3 The small business sector in Australia …………………………………………………………………….. 5
   1.4 Key findings ………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6
   1.5 Our recommendations in relation to the Code ………………………………………………………… 7
   1.6 Other measures to support the Code and increase its impact …………………………………. 11
   1.7 A note of appreciation ………………………………………………………………………………………… 12
2. Purpose of the review ………………………………………………………………………………… 13
   2.1 Background to the review …………………………………………………………………………………… 13
   2.2 The Banking Code of Practice ………………………………………………………………………………. 13
   2.3 Objectives of the review ……………………………………………………………………………………… 14
   2.4 Entities which are impacted by the definition of small business ………………………………. 15
   2.5 The extent and nature of companies impacted by these definitions ………………………… 18
   2.6 Framework for addressing the issues raised by the review and inputs to our work ……. 27
   2.7 Our approach to stakeholder engagement ……………………………………………………………. 28
3. Desktop research and analysis …………………………………………………………………….. 29
   3.1 Overview of the definition of small business …………………………………………………………. 29
   3.2 Nature and extent of businesses protected by the Code…………………………………………. 29
   3.3 Extent of application of the Code …………………………………………………………………………. 32
   3.4 Nature of protections available to small businesses under the Code ………………………… 33
   3.5 Consideration of the criteria used by the definition ……………………………………………….. 35
   3.6 The values used in the criteria …………………………………………………………………………….. 36
   3.7 Application at an individual company or group level ………………………………………………. 38
   3.8 Application at a facility or aggregate borrowings level ……………………………………………. 39
   3.9 Definitional issues identified during our review …………………………………………………….. 39
   3.10 Observations and conclusions ……………………………………………………………………………… 40
4. Findings from previous reviews ……………………………………………………………………. 41
   4.1 A brief history of the definition of small business…………………………………………………… 41
   4.2 The Khoury Review …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42
   4.3 The Hayne Royal Commission ……………………………………………………………………………… 43
   4.4 The ASBFEO Inquiry into Small Business Loans ………………………………………………………. 44
   4.5 Observations and conclusions ……………………………………………………………………………… 45
5. Stakeholder engagement findings ………………………………………………………………… 46
   5.1 Overview of our approach to stakeholder engagement ………………………………………….. 46
   5.2 Key issues for stakeholder engagement ………………………………………………………………… 47
   5.3 Findings from our stakeholder engagement discussions …………………………………………. 47
   5.4 An overview of written submissions provided to Pottinger……………………………………… 50
   5.5 Findings from our public stakeholder questionnaire ………………………………………………. 52
   5.6 Observations and conclusions ……………………………………………………………………………… 53
6. Overall observations and recommendations …………………………………………………… 55
   6.1 Introduction and summary of findings ………………………………………………………………….. 55
   6.2 The Code as a minimum standard for bank behaviour ……………………………………………. 55
   6.3 Recommendations related to the criteria used by the definition ……………………………… 56
   6.4 Recommendations related to the values used in the criteria …………………………………… 58
   6.5 Recommendations related to application of the criteria to groups of businesses ………. 61
   6.6 Recommendation related to application of the borrowings limit …………………………….. 63
   6.7 Recommendations on categories of business to be excluded from the Code …………….. 64
   6.8 Observations on other measures to support the impact of the Code ……………………….. 65
   6.9 Timing considerations ………………………………………………………………………………………… 67
   6.10 Implications of our recommendations ………………………………………………………………….. 67
   6.11 Alignment with other definitions of small business ………………………………………………… 68
   6.12 Conclusion and acknowledgements ……………………………………………………………………… 69
7. Index to figures …………………………………………………………………………………………. 70
   Pottinger is an independent, employee-owned corporate advisory firm dual headquartered in
   Sydney and New York City. We provide advice to private and public sector organisations on strategy,
   public policy, M&A, joint ventures, risk and innovation to help companies and communities increase
   growth, reduce risk and accelerate impact. For further information, please visit Pottinger.com.
   Independent Review of the definition of small business Strictly private and confidential
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8. Executive summary and recommendations
   1.1 Purpose of the review
   The Code of Banking Practice came into effect on 1st November 1996. Since then, it has been
   updated and revised on several occasions, most recently through a comprehensive rewrite
   following the findings of the Khoury Review and the Hayne Royal Commission, as well as other
   subsequent reviews.
   The Banking Code of Practice (2019) (the “Code”) sets out standards of behaviour that banks
   should follow in their dealings with consumers and small business customers. It includes specific
   protections for small businesses, including simplified loan documentation, greater notice of
   enforcement action and enhanced transparency. Currently, the 221
   bank members of the
   Australian Banking Association (the “ABA”) account for approximately 89%
   2
   of the assets in the
   Australian banking system.
   The Code is the first substantive industry code to be approved by the Australian Securities &
   Investments Commission (“ASIC”) under the Corporations Act 2001, and the ABA has sought
   and obtained approval for all subsequent changes to the Code. ASIC’s original approval of the
   Code was subject to the ABA agreeing to commission an independent review of the definition
   of small business in the Code within 18 months of the Code’s commencement.
   Accordingly, in September 2020, the ABA appointed Pottinger to conduct an independent
   review of the definition of small business under the Code. The objectives of our review are to
   determine whether, and if so how, the definition of small business should be updated, including
   consideration of:
   ◼ The relevance of the criteria used by the definition, ie annual turnover, employee numbers
   and borrowings outstanding;
   ◼ The values used in the criteria, currently A$10m for annual turnover, 100 for full-time
   employee numbers and A$3m for borrowings;
   ◼ Whether the criteria should be applied at an individual entity or group level, as well as the
   definitions used to determine which related entities should be taken into account in defining
   a group;
   ◼ Whether the criteria related to borrowings should apply solely to the facility in question or
   to the aggregate of all outstanding facilities; and
   ◼ The potential impact of any proposed changes to the criteria and/or the values, both in terms
   of overall materiality in the context of the banking system and in relation to the practicalities
   of implementing any proposed changes.
   Further information including our terms of reference are set out in section 2.
   1.2 Overview of our approach to the review
   To assess these issues, we have undertaken our own desktop research and analysis, taking into
   account data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (“ABS”), the Australian Prudential
   Regulation Authority (“APRA”) and ASIC as well as other sources, as set out in section 3. We also
   considered the previous recommendations and observations on relevant matters made by the
   1
   The 22 ABA members can be found at this link
   2
   APRA – Monthly authorised deposit-taking institution statistics (August 2020)
   Strictly private and confidential Independent Review of the definition of small business
   5
   Hayne Royal Commission, the Khoury Review, the ASBFEO Inquiry into Small Business Loans and
   the Council of Financial Regulators, as summarised in section 4.
   In addition, we have also completed a stakeholder engagement exercise, consulting with a wide
   range of stakeholders as summarised below.
   Figure 1: Overview of stakeholders consulted
   We also gathered perspectives from the public via a stakeholder questionnaire. The findings
   from our stakeholder engagement process are set out in section 5.
   1.3 The small business sector in Australia
   Small businesses are critical to the Australian economy. For example, of the 884,821 businesses
   recorded by ABS at June 2019 as having employees, 823,715 or 93% employed fewer than 20
   employees. Only 4,271 or 0.5% employed 200 or more people. Data is not available for the
   number of businesses with fewer than 100 employees, as ABS does not report this figure.
   Meanwhile, at the same date, 98.4% of all businesses recorded had turnover less than A$10m3
   ,
   ie would satisfy this criterion of the definition of small business under the Code.
   Figure 2: Proportion of businesses with revenues in the band indicated4

Figures in Australian dollars. Source: Pottinger analysis of ABS data
It is not possible to tell from ABS data the number of businesses that have both turnover of
under A$10m and fewer than 100 employees as the data is not presented in this manner. Even
if there was no overlap between these categories, however, it is clear that at least 95% of
businesses will meet both tests if these are applied on a legal entity basis.
3
Source: ABS data – ABS 8165
4
Source: ABS data – ABS 8165. Figures exclude companies that have no employees
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1.4 Key findings
Our overall observations and the recommendations which follow reflect a synthesis of our
desktop research and background knowledge of the banking sector, consideration of the various
previous reviews and our stakeholder engagement exercise. Our recommendations are also
informed by the challenging operating environment brought on by the COVID-19 crisis.
As an important overarching observation, there is widespread support for the Code and
widespread recognition of its importance in providing protection to small businesses in
Australia. Importantly, most stakeholders consulted believe the Code represents a set of
minimum standards of behaviour to be observed by banks in dealing with their small business
customers.
There is broad consensus that the criteria used in the definition (turnover, employee numbers
and aggregate borrowings) are both reasonable and appropriate, and that these tests should
be assessed at a group level, rather than at an individual legal entity level. Not all stakeholders
support these views, with some preferring to reduce the number of criteria that are used in the
definition and/or recommending that the aggregate borrowings criterion should be applied at
an individual facility level.
Meanwhile, there are several areas where there is broad support for the Code to be refined,
including in relation to:
◼ Improving the precision of some of the terminology used, so that there is greater clarity and
consistency regarding which enterprises are treated as small businesses;
◼ Giving small businesses greater confidence and transparency regarding whether or not they
are (and will continue to be) treated as a small business by any particular bank; and
◼ Contributing to reducing the number of different definitions of small business that are used
in Australia and clarifying why different definitions are used by different bodies.
The current definition of ‘related entities’ used by the Code is drawn from the Corporations Act

2001. Related entities include a broad set of legal and natural persons, including relatives,
      beneficiaries under a trust, trustees and related bodies corporate (ie other corporate legal
      entities). The definition of ‘related entities’ does not, however, include legal entities which are
      affiliated or organised under certain joint venture or partnership structures.
      This definition results in some small businesses being inappropriately excluded from the
      protections of the Code, such as small agricultural businesses that operate independently but
      which are owned by members of the same extended family. The definition can also result in
      some businesses that are part of large, sophisticated groups being treated as small businesses.
      This issue cannot simply be addressed by applying all three criteria at a group level but rather
      will require changes to the definition of small business itself.
      Meanwhile, there are some categories of business that are demonstrably sophisticated in
      nature and whose ability to access relevant institutional banking products may be inhibited by
      being classed as a small business. There is thus a case for such businesses to be automatically
      excluded from the protections of the Code.
      Almost every stakeholder expressed the view that there are too many conflicting definitions of
      small business. There is near unanimous agreement that this causes considerable confusion for
      customers and that there would be considerable merit in reducing the number of definitions in
      use in Australia. In practice, however, there is no simple way to do this, as the various definitions
      are used for a variety of different purposes. No stakeholder made recommendations as to how
      simplification could be achieved.
      Strictly private and confidential Independent Review of the definition of small business
      7
      In addition, we identified several areas which represent, or may be perceived to represent,
      loopholes in the definition of small business and how this is applied by banks. These have
      potential to cause further confusion to customers and to create reputational risk for banks
      which subscribe to the Code. One particular issue is that it is not straightforward for an
      enterprise to determine whether or not it qualifies to be treated as a small business under the
      Code, as this requires knowledge of the Code, the Corporations Act 2001 definition of related
      entities and aspects of the Australian Financial Services regime.
      Given the importance attached to the issues of simplicity and transparency, we have included
      in our report suggestions as to measures that could be implemented by stakeholders to help to
      help mitigate these challenges.
      Finally, there is also broad support for increasing the borrowing limit to A$5m in due course.
      Some banks have already made this change. We acknowledge that there is little consensus
      regarding whether this change is worthwhile, and two medium-sized banks have expressed the
      view that any such change could have an adverse impact on competition and access to credit,
      though these views were neither definitive nor supported by specific evidence.
      As an overarching matter, most stakeholders consider supporting more small businesses, rather
      than fewer such enterprises, to be an appropriate guiding principle. This is especially relevant
      having regard for the challenging operating environment brought on by the COVID-19 crisis.
      This approach is consistent with the operating practice of many banks to apply just one, rather
      than two or all, of the criteria used in the current definition of small business to determine a
      customer’s eligibility for protection under the Code.
      Our review addresses the definition of small business under the Code and certain related
      matters. We note that the current version of the Code only became effective from 1st March
      2020, and that a wider review of the Code is due to be undertaken in 2021.
      In the following sections, we summarise our recommendations in relation to the definition of
      small business in the Code and set out further measures that could be implemented by relevant
      stakeholders to support the Code and increase its impact.
      1.5 Our recommendations in relation to the Code
      The recommendations set out below address the issues we have identified, whilst giving
      appropriate consideration to the extent of impact (or otherwise) that any proposed change
      might have on the number of customers protected, the level of transparency achieved, and the
      cost, complexity and risk of implementation for the banks and other relevant stakeholders.
      Figure 3: Summary of recommendations
      Area Recommendations
      The criteria and
      values used
      1 The criteria used by the definition of small business should be retained
      2 An enterprise should continue to be required to meet all three criteria to qualify as a
      small business
      3 The values related to employee numbers and turnover should be retained
      4 The value used in the borrowing criterion should be increased to A$5m in due course
      Related entities
      5 All three criteria should be applied at a group level
      6 The definition of related entities should be refined
      Aggregate
      borrowings
      7 The borrowings criterion should continue to apply to aggregate borrowings
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      Area Recommendations
      Exclusions 8 Certain categories of sophisticated business should be specifically excluded
      Implementation
      9 The ABA should endorse our recommendations in the near term and implement them
      as soon as practicable
      Two recommendations, namely the application of all three criteria at a group level
      (rather than an individual legal entity level) and the exclusion of certain types of
      sophisticated enterprise can readily be implemented more rapidly and accordingly we
      recommend that the Code be updated to address these in the near term
      Implementation of the other recommendations can commence following completion of
      the upcoming review of the Code, thus allowing sufficient time for banks to prepare
      and to ensure that all relevant implications are properly considered in advance
      We provide further detail on these recommendations and the rationale for proposing them in
      section 6. Whilst most of the above recommendations are straightforward in nature, there are
      four that merit particular attention, as summarised below.
      Aggregate borrowings: Unlike the Khoury Review, Hayne Royal Commission and ASBFEO
      Inquiry, we recommend that the credit criterion is based on aggregate borrowings, rather than
      on an individual facility limit. The reason for this is that the fundamental purpose of the Code is
      to protect unsophisticated customers, rather than to enforce simplified documentation or other
      requirements on particular products. Our view is that aggregate borrowings represents a better
      measure of sophistication than the size of individual facilities. In addition, the use of a facility
      limit would result in sophisticated organisations with large borrowing requirements that are
      implemented through a series of smaller facilities being classified as small business customers.
      The credit threshold: We acknowledge that there has been substantial debate and discussion
      in relation to the recommendation by previous reviews that a value of A$5m should be used in
      the borrowings criterion, and that this ultimately resulted in a figure of A$3m being used in the
      Code. On balance, and in conjunction with our view that the borrowings criterion should be
      based on aggregate borrowings, we recommend that in due course the Code should be updated
      to refer to an aggregate borrowings amount of A$5m. We note that the ABA’s submission, made
      on behalf of its member banks including all subscribers to the Code, opposed this change5
      .
      Meanwhile, some banks and associated stakeholders emphasised that any such change should
      only be implemented after an appropriate preparatory period. Importantly, however, in our
      direct consultations with most of the banks that subscribe to the Code, no banks opposed such
      a change outright. This would extend the protections of the Code to a modest number of
      additional businesses, in line with estimates made during previous reviews and now quantified
      more precisely via data gathered by ASIC upon which this review has relied.
      Related entities: We recommend refining the definition of related entities as that term is used
      in the definition so that it explicitly recognises unincorporated legal entities such as joint
      ventures, partnerships and trust structures and treats all businesses that are under common
      control as a single group. Considerable care is required in developing the precise wording to be
      used in order to avoid unintended consequences and to ensure that it can readily be applied in
      practice by banks. While we provide the rationale for these recommendations, legal advice
      beyond our scope would be required in order to reach a definitive recommendation.
      Implementation: We recommend that the more significant changes identified, including the
      need to refine the definition of related entities, are implemented at the same time as any other
      changes that arise from the broader review of the Code in 2021. This will help to minimise the
      5
      The ABA’s submission opposed increasing the credit exposure criterion to A$5m as “it appropriately reflects the policy intent
      behind the Code of ensuring small businesses have the benefits of protections while leaving larger, more sophisticated businesses
      free to negotiate appropriate conditions with their bank.”
      Strictly private and confidential Independent Review of the definition of small business
      9
      cost and risk to banks and other stakeholders of these changes. Thereafter, reflecting the
      significant evolution of the Code over recent years, we recommend that further changes should
      be as limited as possible for a period of at least three to five years.
      More broadly, we have considered carefully, and our recommendations are informed by, the
      current economic circumstances in Australia brought about by the COVID-19 crisis and
      subsequent recession. Many small businesses currently face significant challenges, and these
      conditions are likely to continue into 2021 and potentially beyond. Unsurprisingly, many
      stakeholders identified the importance of these factors.
      Our recommendations result from investigating the series of questions laid out in our terms of
      reference. For clarity, we set out below our specific answers to these questions.
      Figure 4: Summary of our responses to the questions raised in our terms of reference
      Focus of question Pottinger’s perspective
      The overall balance of
      the definition
      We believe the overall balance of the definition is appropriate, subject to the
      various refinements outlined below
      The turnover threshold
      Turnover is an appropriate criterion for determining small business status under the
      Code, and is used by several other definitions of small business
      Turnover is a necessary criterion, ensuring that businesses with high revenues but
      low borrowing requirements and employee numbers are not inappropriately
      categorised as small businesses
      The turnover threshold of A$10m is set at the appropriate level, ensures the large
      majority of businesses are captured by the definition, and is broadly consistent with
      both the employee numbers and aggregate borrowings criteria
      The employee threshold
      The number of employees is an appropriate criterion for determining small business
      status under the Code, and is used by many other definitions of small business
      The number of employees is a necessary criterion, ensuring businesses with a
      significant number of employees, low borrowing requirements and modest
      revenues are not inappropriately categorised as small businesses
      The employee threshold of 100 employees is set at the appropriate level, ensures
      the large majority of businesses are captured by the definition, and is broadly
      consistent with both the revenue and aggregate borrowings criteria
      Application of the
      definitions at a group
      level
      The revenue and employee numbers criteria should be applied at a group level
      A new definition is required, in order to ensure entities such as partnerships and
      unincorporated joint ventures are taken into account and to avoid exclusion of
      businesses that are related entities but are neither under common control nor
      operate as single economic entities
      The credit criterion
      The credit criterion should continue to be applied to the ‘total credit exposure’ of
      the borrower and its related entities (based on a new definition) and should not be
      applied on a per facility basis
      The credit threshold The credit threshold should apply to aggregate borrowings and should be increased
      in due course to A$5m, in line with the recommendations of previous reviews
      Inadvertent implications
      of the definition
      The definition of related entities results in it unintentionally and inappropriately
      excluding some types of business, such as businesses that are not under common
      control, but which are owned by members of an extended family
      The definition of related entities results in it unintentionally and inappropriately
      including as a small business some larger economic entities that operate through
      unincorporated joint ventures, partnerships and other similar structures
      The changes we propose should be endorsed by the ABA in the near term, with
      implementation of certain changes to commence at the next convenient juncture
      Independent Review of the definition of small business Strictly private and confidential
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      Focus of question Pottinger’s perspective
      Timing of proposed
      changes
      (eg early to mid-2021). The remaining changes – those which require further
      assessment (including eg legal analysis) – should be implemented following
      completion of the broader review of the Code that is to be carried out in 2021
      In each case, significant notice should be provided to banks to help minimise the
      cost and risk of implementing such changes
      We do not anticipate any material impact on small businesses of this approach
      The terms of reference for our review also required us to consider the potential benefit to
      customers of any change in the definition of small business used by the Code, as well as any
      effect on the availability or price of credit to business customers as well as on competition in
      the banking sector. We comment briefly on these questions below.
      ◼ Benefits to customers: Increasing the aggregate borrowings limit from A$3m to A$5m would
      give around 10,000 business customers access to the protections of the Code. These
      businesses are likely to be significantly larger than the average small business that is
      protected under the Code. For example, their average borrowings are estimated to be
      around A$3.6m to A$3.8m based on data provided to us by ASIC. We anticipate that these
      businesses will thus have proportionately more turnover and employees, and as a result are
      more significant enterprises in terms of their contribution to Australian economic output
      and employment. We consider this an important consideration as Australia undertakes to
      repair its industry, community and economy as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. The primary
      benefit for these customers will be increased confidence that they will be treated reasonably
      and fairly by their bank. Providing access to the Code’s protections may give such customers
      greater confidence, and a more frictionless means, to take on additional borrowing, for
      example, as may be required to support business growth as the Australian economy emerges
      from the current recession;
      ◼ Availability or price of credit: There are several factors that could, in theory, impact on the
      availability or price of credit to business customers if the aggregate borrowings criterion is
      increased from A$3m to A$5m. These will primarily relate to a bank’s assessment of the risk
      related to a proposed facility, or to its assessment of its ability to manage risks related to
      that facility over time, that may arise through the requirements imposed by the Code in
      relation to small business customers. In practice, a small number of banks identified that
      these potential risks might emerge, but we have not identified or been provided with any
      data or evidence through which we can quantify this risk. Ultimately, we note that the loans
      involved account for only a small portion of overall business lending in Australia. Our overall
      view is that any such risks can best be mitigated by ensuring appropriate notice is given to
      banks of proposed changes; and
      ◼ Potential impact on competition: We estimate that the value of loans that would fall within
      the scope of the Code if the borrowings limit was increased from A$3m to A$5m would be
      approximately A$37bn. This equates to approximately 4.6% of all business lending in
      Australia by value, or 5.4% of all business lending by ABA members, or 5.8% of all business
      lending by ABA members with small business lending portfolios. In other words, the
      proportion of the business lending sector that would be affected by these changes is small.
      Overall, as the size of the proposed changes is modest set against the context of banks’ lending
      activities, we believe there is unlikely to be any material impact on ongoing competition in the
      provision of loans to small business as a result of these changes. Further detail is set out in
      section 2.5 (The extent and nature of companies impacted by these definitions).
      Further context on our overall recommendations is set out in Section 6 (Overall observations
      and recommendations) of our report.
      https://www.ausbanking.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Independent-Review-of-the-Definition-of-Small-Business-Pottinger-2020.pdf

BILL MCDONALD：你可能还记得我昨天和 Blake Talbot 谈过话。现在，在成为我想我可能听说过的最精心设计和最复杂的骗局之一的受害者之后，他与节目取得了联系。现在，布莱克和他怀孕的妻子已经失去了超过 26,000 美元的毕生积蓄。

正如布莱克昨天向我解释的那样，他接到了一个未识别号码的未接来电。当他用谷歌搜索时，它是 Suncorp。然后他收到一条来自 Suncorp 的短信；他们在说诈骗人员会就可疑活动与他联系之前用来联系他的电话号码是一样的。他们还让他引用一个
安全号码，以验证电话中是 Suncorp。

现在，当 Blake 与他们取得联系时，他们开始检查他们阻止的未经授权的交易，并告诉他有 4,000 美元的直接借记，这对 Blake 来说显然是个新闻。他们告诉他有人入侵了他的 Apple Wallet，他需要开设一个新账户并转账，因为他的整个银行系统都被入侵了。他们有他所有的账户详细信息、地址和
未经授权的交易详细信息。

所以你可以想象，它看起来非常合法。他把自己的账户全部转了出去，刚转
完电话就没电了，再也打不回去了。现在，我昨天确实阅读了 Suncorp 的一份声明，他们证实他们的欺诈和调查团队正在
努力追回这笔钱，但通常这些钱会被直接发送到海外，所以有时无法追踪。

在听了 Blake 的故事并知道有多少人成为骗局的受害者后，我们昨天接到了很多电话和短信，我想了解我们可以做些什么来防止成为骗局的受害者。Anna Bligh 是澳大利亚银行业协会的首席执行官，我很高兴她现在加入了我的行列。早上好，安娜。

ANNA BLIGH：早上好，你好吗？

BILL MCDONALD：我很好，谢谢。很高兴再次与你交谈。这不仅仅是 Suncorp 的问题，是吗？此类骗局正在全国范围内袭击企业及其客户。人们如何做才能防止成为他们的目标？

ANNA BLIGH：嗯，你完全正确，Bill。这些骗局袭击了澳大利亚各地的人们，无论他们使用谁的银行或使用哪家电话公司，这些都是极其复杂的操作。我认为我们有时会认为诈骗者是一些业余爱好者，他们围坐在他们的车库里，试图，你知道，打击某人。实际上，他们是非常老练、有组织的犯罪团伙，经常在其他国家活动。他们有整个呼叫中心的人，他们每天的工作就是试图在你的盔甲上找到一个缝隙。

但有些事情我们都可以做。首先，诈骗者所做的是他们试图利用您的恐惧，或者利用您很忙的事实，然后您会迅速做事。所以很多时候他们会威胁，他们会让你感到担心和害怕。他们会说你有税务局的账单，如果你不付钱，警察就会来，他们会说，你知道的，“钱从你的账户里拿走了，你必须立即采取行动来阻止它。” 他们会利用这样一个事实，即他们认为您很忙，而每年圣诞节前的这个时候正是黄金时段。他们会给你发一条短信，告诉你一些令人担忧的事情。现在有一个人在冒充某人的孩子，所以它会是，“妈妈，我需要钱，我被困在某个地方，

所以我们能做的第一件事就是总是花点时间，不要让电话里的任何人催促你做得太快，也不要让他们利用你很忙的事实。但重要的是要知道，首先，银行绝不会通过短信或电子邮件要求提供任何帐户或个人详细信息。因此，如果您在短信中收到类似要求的内容，很可能是骗局。银行绝不会要求您通过电话转账——关闭账户并转移所有资金。如果有人要求您做那样的事情，那么很可能是骗子。然后是我们所知道的所有事情。当然，当我们忙碌或害怕时，我们往往会忘记，或者他们会利用它。不要把你的 PIN 码给别人，不要通过电话给你的 PIN 码，不要让别人把你逼到你刚刚感觉不好的事情上。花点时间从他们声称的任何事情中退后一步。

BILL MCDONALD：在大多数情况下，如果您通过电话与您取得联系，您最好挂断电话，如果您有任何疑虑，可能会回电，或者回电给您的贷方或你的银行？

安娜·布莱：没错。你知道，我们确实知道在许多银行中发生了诈骗——或者他们今年已经发生了——有人冒充银行职员。重要的是要了解银行不会打电话告诉你你有风险——他们会报警，或者我听说人们在这些骗局中遇到的任何威胁。

我想让您的听众知道的一件事是，大多数银行现在都提供一种称为 PayID 的服务。这样做的目的是让您直接向某人的电话号码付款。这是一个很好的机制，会给你带来压力，但这是正在发生的大骗局之一，显然，如果你有任何技工听你说话，他们就会知道这件事，例如，你可能有在你的房子上完成了一些工作，你收到一张看起来像是做这项工作的人的发票，你付了钱，然后你知道，30 天后，技工打电话给你说，“比尔，你还没有付了我的账单。” 发生的事情是一个骗子夹在你和做这项工作的人之间，他们篡改了发票，你真的以为你已经付款了，但钱从来没有到正确的人那里。PayID 可以避免这种骗局，

那里有上百万种不同的骗局，但对于那个特定的骗局，我们可以作为客户采取一些措施，通过支付这些类型的发票，直接以现金形式支付给您面前的人，或者使用 PayID 支付这些账单.

BILL MCDONALD：这是一个很好的建议，特别是对于那些可能跟不上所有技术以及其中一些骗子向他们提到的内容的老年人来说。

安娜，你对布雷克的处境有何看法？他能做些什么来收回他的钱吗？

ANNA BLIGH：好吧，昨天我确实听了 Blake 给你打电话，我不得不说我确定每个人都在听，你知道，当你听到这些经历时你会感觉很糟糕，你知道，我能理解为什么他和他的家人都很苦恼。

但布莱克确实表示他已经向澳大利亚金融投诉局 AFCA 提出投诉，而布莱克现在需要做的就是顺其自然。他们每天都在接受这种性质的投诉。他们有非常有经验的投诉官员，他们会从银行和布莱克的角度审视所有情况，然后他们有权决定结果，而银行将根据他们确定的任何结果承担责任。

所以他做了正确的事，如果他相信他有权获得一些损失的补偿，那正是做出决定并审查所有情况的正确机构。

所以，你知道，当我们进入圣诞节时，我只能向所有听众重复一遍，骗子会利用我们在接下来的一周或 10 天内都会非常忙碌的事实，我们会让我们的也许在圣诞节和新年期间我们在海滩上放松时要放松警惕，不要让骗子毁了你的圣诞节。按下按钮前请三思，如果感觉不好就挂断电话，因为您可能是对的。

有 － 一家主要银行最近在其年度股东大会上表示，他们的系统每个月都会从客户的账户中击退 5000 万次诈骗。这就是这个问题的规模。他们只需要在盔甲上找到一个小缝隙，你知道的，我们经常成为这些东西的受害者，因为他们是如此复杂，他们组织得如此严密，而且他们是罪犯。

比尔·麦克唐纳：是的，这很可怕。我说的是澳大利亚银行业协会的首席执行官 Anna Bligh。快点，银行正在尝试做些什么来进一步防止这些骗局以保护客户？

ANNA BLIGH：好吧，每家银行都在为他们的网络安全投资数百万美元。曾几何时，银行花了很多钱建造巨大的铁金库，在那里他们可以锁上门并确保您的实物资金安全。如今，我们没有那种金库来保护我们的资金安全，我们有非常非常复杂的网络安全系统来保护我们的财务。

所以每一天，银行，有趣的是，许多银行现在都在雇佣更多的人——他们雇佣了更多的软件工程师、编码员和 IT 专业人员，而不是一线出纳员，因为那是他们需要投资的地方，这就是我们需要他们投入资金的地方。我认为让人们知道的另一件事非常重要的是，当事情发生时，当银行发现影响其客户的骗局时，他们确实有一个非常好的系统让彼此知道，所以如果事情发生在一家银行，其他每一家银行肯定能很快发现。所以他们分享这些信息。没有人认为这有任何竞争优势。如果一家银行被骗了，他们很快就会知道它会顺着他们的路走下去。

还有很多恢复工作，所以如果钱从你的账户转到其他银行，他们可以打电话给那家银行，在处理这种情况时冻结它。

但正如您在介绍中所说，如果它被发送到海外或发送到加密货币交易所，您知道，在东欧的某个地方，几乎不可能将其取回。

比尔·麦克唐纳：好的。好吧，这是你在那里给我们的一些好建议，我很感激你的时间。非常感谢。祝你圣诞快乐。

安娜·布莱：好的，谢谢。

BILL MCDONALD： Anna Bligh，澳大利亚银行业协会首席执行官

观点

全球银行业和非银行业正面临通货膨胀全球化、同步货币政策收紧和持续的地缘政治风险对增长的不利影响。尽管目前印度银行业凭借改善的资产质量和强大的资本缓冲保持强劲和弹性，但政策制定者仍然关注动态变化的宏观经济状况，这些状况可能会影响受监管实体的健康。展望未来，储备银行的重点将继续放在鼓励在这一领域使用技术和创新，同时控制可能的系统性风险。

I.1 2022年，通胀全球化，能源和粮食短缺，全球货币政策同步收紧，全球增长和贸易前景恶化。资本外流、货币贬值和储备损失共同加剧了新兴市场经济体 (EME) 的前景，使其金融体系面临更大的不确定性和下行风险。金融状况已经收紧，但由于预期通胀见顶，近期情绪有所改善。尽管全球银行看似稳健，但在利率上升且增长动力疲软的环境下，资产质量可能会承压。随着收益率上升，银行可能会在其投资组合中出现按市值计价 (MTM) 的损失，而更高的拨备要求可能会削弱其盈利能力。

I.2 在这种高度不确定的全球环境中，印度经济正显示出从宏观经济基本面来看增长势头逐渐增强的迹象。2021-22 年和 2022-23 年迄今为止，在强劲的信贷需求推动下，印度定期商业银行 (SCB) 的资产负债表强劲扩张。他们的资产质量和盈利能力有所改善，而低滑点和高资本缓冲正在增强投资者对银行的信心。

I.3 随着 COVID-19 的减弱，非银行金融公司 (NBFC) 部门的底线在 2021-22 年有所改善。凭借强大的资本缓冲、充足的准备金和充足的流动性，非银行金融公司有望扩张。尽管如此，展望未来，NBFC 需要警惕随着金融条件收紧而上升的借贷成本。在监管方面，随着该行业有机整合范围的扩大，基于规模的监管有望加强 NBFC。

I.4 在此背景下，本章概述了银行和非银行部门面临的挑战以及前进的方向。

利率上升对银行盈利能力的影响

I.5 在利率上升的环境下，银行的净利息收入 (NII) 可望在短期内增加，反映出对贷款利率的更好传导。另一方面，更高的收益率使银行面临其国债投资的 MTM 损失，从而减少其非利息收入。持有至到期 (HTM) 投资组合1下 SLR 证券限额的增加在一定程度上缓解了收益率上升对渣打银行盈利能力的影响。2018 年推出的投资波动准备金 (IFR) 是另一个缓解因素。2022 年 9 月底从部分银行收集的修正久期数据显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，即使在为收益率上升导致的 MTM 损失做出必要准备后，银行仍将保持充足的资本。

压力资产的解决

I.6 2016 年颁布的《无力偿债和破产法》(IBC) 是印度解决压力资产的风气的范式转变。然而，近年来，与他们通过该机制承认的索赔相比，恢复率下降引起了人们的关注2。复苏率取决于几个因素，包括整体宏观经济环境、实体及其部门的增长前景，以及实体内在价值的侵蚀程度。随着基础广泛的复苏获得牵引力，这些因素可能会转为有利于财务解决方案。

I.7 在 IBC 等基于公开拍卖的解决方案模型中，扣减幅度代表市场对持续经营的受压力实体的收购要求的折扣。由于这些资产可能已经发生重大价值破坏，因此将已实现价值与已承认的索赔进行比较可能不是解决过程有效性的合理指标。相反，决议价值可以与压力资产的清算价值进行比较。数据表明，到 2022 年 9 月底，在金融债权人 (FC) 启动企业破产解决程序 (CIRP) 的情况下，通过 IBC 实现的清算价值接近 201%。

I.8 在 IBC 框架内，决议申请的受理以及最终决议和清算的时间稳步增加。印度破产与破产委员会 (IBBI) 最近修订了 CIRP 法规，旨在提高实现价值、减少流程延迟、提高可用时间效率以及提高信息可用性。通过对 IBC 法规的另一项修订，为破产专业人士引入了与绩效挂钩的激励措施，这应有助于将压力资产的实现价值最大化，超过其清算价值，并有助于及时解决这些问题。

I.9 预先打包的破产解决程序结合了最好的庭外解决努力和解决计划的司法终局性。这种只允许中小微企业 (MSME) 借款人使用的机制，如果扩展到所有借款人，可能会有效地补充储备银行的审慎框架。在印度，信贷合同通常包含交叉义务和由借款人的母公司和集团公司提供的信用风险缓解保障。在这样的系统中，一个借款人的违约可能会刺激集团公司的交叉违约，从而增加金融系统的整体信用风险。集团决议框架，其中属于同一企业集团的借款人的决议如果一起进行，可以帮助提高 IBC 的效率。

压力资产证券化

I.10 2021年9月，储备银行发布修订后的标准资产证券化框架，简化了最低持有期限和最低保留要求，同时证券化风险暴露的资本要求与巴塞尔协议III规范接轨。根据 2002 年金融资产证券化和重组及担保权益执行 (SARFAESI) 法案，目前允许持牌资产重组公司 (ARC) 进行不良资产 (NPA) 的证券化。除了 ARC 路线，储备银行提议引入类似于标准资产修订框架的压力资产证券化框架。正如 2022 年 9 月宣布的那样，将很快发布一份讨论文件 (DP) 以征求市场参与者的意见。

投资组合审慎准则

I.11 现行的投资估值指南是近二十年前发布的。从那时起，国内金融市场的规模和复杂性不断增加，需要进行全面审查。储备银行于 2022 年 1 月发布了关于商业银行投资组合分类、估值和操作的审慎规范的 DP。拟议的框架旨在为银行在管理其投资组合方面提供更大的灵活性，同时通过以下方式解决透明度问题加强披露。其建议包括对称确认公允价值收益和损失、取消对投资组合的各种限制，例如 HTM 投资的上限，以及允许将非 SLR 证券纳入 HTM 账簿。拟议的准则，

预期信用损失框架

I.12 目前，在印度经营的银行需要根据已发生损失模型计提贷款损失准备金，其中准备金是在发生违约后计提的。一种称为预期信用损失 (ECL) 模型的修订方法要求信贷机构根据对信用损失的前瞻性估计进行拨备。在印度，一些 NBFCs 3遵循 ECL 方法，这与其银行同行不同。储备银行关于银行 ECL 框架的拟议 DP 将有助于制定基于原则的指导方针，并在必要时辅以监管支持。

银行所有权

I.13 过去几年，印度政府一直在通过合并促进公共部门银行 (PSB) 的整合。在 2021-22 年的联邦预算中，政府宣布有意对两家 PSB 进行私有化。PSB 和私营部门银行 (PVB) 需要在公司治理实践以及管理和运营灵活性方面达成一致。展望未来，这将为 PSB 和 PVB 扩大业务和繁荣创造必要的空间。

监管沙盒

I.14 储备银行于 2019 年将监管沙箱 (RS) 概念化，使实体能够测试创新产品、服务或商业模式，通常是在具有一定保障和监督的真实但受控的环境中。迄今为止宣布的 RS 队列主题包括“零售支付”、“跨境支付”、“MSME 贷款”和“预防和减轻金融欺诈”。到目前为止，六个实体已成功退出第一批，四个实体已成功退出第二批。在第三组中选择的实体目前正在接受测试，并且正在评估在第四组中收到的申请，以便将实体列入测试阶段的候选名单。RS 下的第五批人已宣布对跨越储备银行各种职能的创新产品/服务/技术保持主题中立。根据迄今获得的经验，RS 的支持框架已经发生变化，使其基础更广泛、创新更友好。此外，RS 中针对封闭群组的主题引入了“on tap”应用程序设施，以确保持续创新。

加强非现场监测系统

I.15 储备银行一直积极致力于使其非现场监控系统更清晰、更全面并与国际最佳实践保持一致。这方面的一项重大举措是启用了先进的监管监控系统——DAKSH，这是一个功能齐全的平台，可进一步实现监管工作流程的数字化。管道中的其他主要举措包括 (a) 实施中央信息和管理系统 (CIMS)，以便受监管实体 (RE) 和监控工具自动报告数据；(b) 用大数据补充监管情报；(c) 实施网络靶场——用于网络安全演练的虚拟受控环境和工具；(d) 制定欺诈漏洞指数4使用人工智能和机器学习 (AI/ML) 的仪表板；(e) 所有受监管实体 (SE) 的了解你的客户 (KYC) 和反洗钱 (AML) 框架的基于风险的方法的标准化/优化。重点还放在能力建设、专业劳动力的发展和现代技术的使用上。

差别银行业务

I.16 虽然小型金融银行 (SFB) 和支付银行 (PB) 在普惠金融方面发挥了重要作用，但一些 PB 尚未达到收支平衡。此外，以技术为导向的商业模式不再只是这些银行的利基；几乎所有银行都在利用技术来改善和扩大金融服务和产品的交付。随着数字银行部门 (DBU) 的建立，这些努力得到了推动。在此背景下，一些方面对差异化银行模式的可行性和可持续性提出了担忧。需要确保他们的商业模式足够稳健，并遵守良好的治理和技术标准，这样他们才能在竞争激烈的环境中生存。

支付结算系统

I.17 储备银行最近采取的积极措施彻底改变了支付和结算生态系统，增强了消费者体验，深化了数字覆盖面并促进了普惠金融。UPI123Pay 的推出促进了该国超过 4 亿功能电话用户访问统一支付接口 (UPI)。此外，UPI Lite 还通过设备上的钱包在离线模式下促进了低价值交易。支付基础设施发展基金 (PIDF) 的合格补贴金额得到提高，补贴申请流程得到简化，以进一步推动支付接受点的部署。储备银行允许在某些条件下通过 Bharat 账单支付系统 (BBPS) 将根据卢比提款安排 (RDA) 收到的外国汇入汇款转移到开票人（受益人）符合 KYC 的银行账户。预计这将有助于非居民印度人 (NRI) 代表其在印度的家人支付水电费、教育费和其他账单。不丹、新加坡和阿联酋已经启用了利用 UPI 的基于快速响应 (QR) 的个人对商户 (P2M) 支付。DigiSaathi 帮助热线的建立是为了提高人们对支付系统的认识。卡令牌化和经常性交易的电子授权限制的提高进一步加强了数字交易的安全性。预计这将有助于非居民印度人 (NRI) 代表其在印度的家人支付水电费、教育费和其他账单。不丹、新加坡和阿联酋已经启用了利用 UPI 的基于快速响应 (QR) 的个人对商户 (P2M) 支付。DigiSaathi 帮助热线的建立是为了提高人们对支付系统的认识。卡令牌化和经常性交易的电子授权限制的提高进一步加强了数字交易的安全性。预计这将有助于非居民印度人 (NRI) 代表其在印度的家人支付水电费、教育费和其他账单。不丹、新加坡和阿联酋已经启用了利用 UPI 的基于快速响应 (QR) 的个人对商户 (P2M) 支付。DigiSaathi 帮助热线的建立是为了提高人们对支付系统的认识。卡令牌化和经常性交易的电子授权限制的提高进一步加强了数字交易的安全性。

I.18 有效的支付系统要求适当地确定费用以确保用户的最佳成本和运营商的回报。2022 年 8 月，储备银行发布了一份讨论文件 (DP)，概述了支付系统收费的现有规则，同时还提出了可以征收此类费用的其他选择。根据收到的反馈，储备银行努力构建其政策并简化该国不同支付服务和活动的收费框架。这将确保印度拥有最先进的支付和结算系统，不仅安全、可靠、高效、快速，而且价格实惠。

金融科技

I.19 在印度，金融科技可以发挥的最具变革性的作用之一是与传统贷方合作提供信贷，尤其是在农村和半城市地区。目前的信贷交付系统主要是纸质的，周转时间长，需要多次访问银行分支机构。它给贷方带来高昂的运营成本，给借款人带来高昂的机会成本。考虑到这些挑战，储备银行和储备银行创新中心 (RBIH) 联合提出了农业金融数字化的概念。这将使 Kisan 信用卡 (KCC) 贷款以完全数字化和无忧的方式交付。基于这项创新的试点项目分别与印度联合银行和联邦银行合作，在中央邦和泰米尔纳德邦启动，用于新的 KCC 贷款以及此类贷款的续签。展望未来，储备银行的愿景是开发和运营一个集成和标准化的技术平台，以促进信贷无摩擦地流向社会各阶层，特别强调农村和农业信贷。

网络安全风险

I.20 随着数字支付的指数级增长和金融生态系统数字化的不断扩大，金融机构的网络安全风险也在增加。这些需要建立强大的网络攻击防御系统和不断提高人员技能。持续获取知识和保持领先地位将至关重要。

I.21 储备银行一直在采取积极措施，让受监管实体 (SE) 及时了解新的安全挑战和网络威胁。2022 年 6 月发布的关于 IT 服务外包的主要方向草案征求公众意见，目前正在根据收到的反馈进行修订。此外，为受监管实体 (RE) 提供统一和更新的 IT 治理和风险管理框架的 MD 草案已于 2022 年 10 月发布在储备银行的网站上，以征求公众意见。

气候变化与绿色金融

I.22 气候变化可能导致物理风险和转型风险，这些风险可能对单个可再生能源的可持续性和财务稳健性以及系统性金融稳定性产生影响。RE 需要制定和实施流程，以了解和评估气候相关金融风险对其业务战略和运营的潜在影响。这尤其需要适当的治理结构和战略框架，以有效管理和应对这些风险。RE 还需要关注其员工的适当能力建设。因此，储备银行于 2022 年 7 月发布了关于气候风险和可持续金融的 DP。DP 建议 RE 将气候相关和环境风险纳入其业务战略以及治理和风险管理框架。按照国际最佳实践，引导区域能源采取前瞻性、综合性、战略性的方式应对气候相关风险。

I.23 可持续金融分类法是旨在帮助投资者解读经济活动是否具有环境可持续性并引导向低碳经济过渡的工具。这种分类法可以在引导和扩大可持续金融资金到印度方面发挥关键作用。它还将使可持续资金流动的跟踪变得更加容易。分类法的开发需要政府牵头的利益相关者的共同努力。

I.24 为绿色项目筹集资源或通过发行绿色债券为其再融资提供了该国致力于低碳经济的强烈信号。根据尊敬的财政部长在 2022 年 2 月 1 日的预算演讲中宣布，政府已决定在 2022-23 年期间在国内市场发行 1600 亿卢比的主权绿色债券。这些借款将成为印度政府 2022-23 年整体市场借款的一部分，所得款项将用于绿色公共部门项目。印度政府于 2022 年 11 月 9 日发布了主权绿色债券框架。此外，国际气候研究中心 (CICERO)，一家独立且全球知名的挪威第二方意见 (SPO) 提供商受命评估该框架并证明其符合国际资本市场协会 (ICMA) 的绿色债券原则和国际最佳实践。它将该框架评为“中等绿色”，治理得分为“良好”。

I.25 总体而言，印度银行业和非银行业金融部门表现出抵御多次冲击的韧性，促进了大流行后公共政策措施向目标经济部门的有效实施，并保持了金融稳健性，同时支持经济的广泛复苏印度经济。虽然目前金融领域的技术创新浪潮和全球供应链再平衡带来的新增长机会以及生产挂钩激励 (PLI) 计划下对 14 个行业的国内支持开辟了新的商业途径，但重要的是要注意以技术为主导的复杂网络、替代金融选择和地缘政治发展带来的新风险。金融部门还需要对与气候变化相关的风险和不确定性保持警惕。

1 2020 年 10 月，银行被允许超过 HTM 上限，总上限为 NDTL 的 22%（而不是之前的 19.5%），从而为银行投资 SLR 证券创造了更大的空间。该限制在 2022 年 4 月进一步延长至 23%。豁免有效期至 2023 年 3 月 31 日，并进一步延长至 2024 年 3 月 31 日。HTM 限制将分阶段恢复至 19.5%从 2024 年 6 月 30 日结束的季度开始。

2截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，在 FC 发起 CIRP 的情况下，实现占总索赔的 33%。

3 2015 年公司（印度会计准则）规则第 4 条涵盖的 NBFC。

4目前，欺诈脆弱性指数旨在跟踪银行的脆弱性。展望未来，该指数的范围可能会扩大到涵盖其他 SE。

Determinants of Financial Literacy and Financial
Inclusion in North-Eastern Region of India:
A Case Study of Mizoram

by

Bhartendu Singh¹
Raj Rajesh
Ramesh Golait
K. Samuel L.

Abstract

The present study evaluates the determinants of the status of financial inclusion and financial literacy in the under-banked North-Eastern Region of India based on field survey-data in the State of Mizoram. The survey indicated that there was limited financial awareness in the study region, about 32 per cent of the respondents were not aware of any financial products except the savings bank account. About 20 per cent of the respondents reported lack of knowledge of the basic payment options and about 43 per cent of the respondents reported knowledge but lack of usage of these options. About half of the respondents were found to be unaware of the financial institutions other than banks, viz., non-banking financial companies, microfinance institutions and small finance banks. It was also found that use of life insurance products was low among respondents. The financial inclusion score and financial literacy score for the study region were generated using the OECD/INFE (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/ International Network on Financial Education) Toolkit for measuring financial literacy and financial inclusion. The average financial literacy score estimated in the study was 14.37 on a scale of 0 to 21 (i.e., 68.43 per cent) and the average financial inclusion score was 3.35 on a scale of 0 to 7 (i.e., 47.86 per cent). Several factors based on the literature were identified and tested in terms of their effect on financial inclusion and financial literacy using suitable econometric techniques, including a logistic regression framework. Among the identified factors, the place of residence (block), employment type and nature of family (joint versus nuclear) of the respondents were seen to strongly influence their financial inclusion and financial literacy status.

JEL Codes: G2, G18, G29, G21, G23

Keywords: Financial institutions and services, government policies and regulations, banks, financial institutions

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Acknowledgement

The authors are profoundly grateful to the Local Board for Eastern Area, RBI for conceptualisation of the study. The authors take this opportunity to extend their thanks to the participants of the Department of Economic and Policy Research (DEPR) Study Circle seminar of RBI for useful comments on an earlier draft of the study. Authors are also grateful to an anonymous external referee for very detailed suggestions and generous comments on the study. The authors would also like to thank Dr. Deba Prasad Rath, Principal Adviser, DEPR for insightful suggestions and encouragement. Authors would also like to thank Dr. Pallavi Chavan, Director, DRG, DEPR, and her team members for their comments and support throughout the study. Nonetheless, the views expressed in this study are those of the authors alone and not of the organisations they are attached to. The authors only are responsible for errors and omissions, if any.

Bhartendu Singh
Raj Rajesh
Ramesh Golait
K. Samuel L.

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Executive Summary

Financial inclusion relates to the access to financial products and services. It is not limited to the basic access to deposits, but extends to the access to various financial services, including investments, credit, payments and insurance. Financial literacy provides basic knowledge and skills to analyse and understand financial products and services and assists in taking informed financial decisions. Financial inclusion without financial literacy may lead to exploitation as consumers may not be in a position to choose the right products and may end up taking uninformed decisions. On the other hand, financial literacy without financial inclusion is akin to providing skills without an opportunity to apply the same. In the long run, however, financial literacy takes people closer towards financial inclusion as there is a high likelihood that an aware person will seek access to finance and also achieve it.

Against this backdrop, the present study was conceived to look into various factors impacting financial literacy and financial inclusion in the north-east taking Mizoram as the site of the study. The study is based on primary data collected through a structured questionnaire. Total 523 respondents were selected from eight blocks, covering four districts, of Mizoram. The factors² identified for the study are based on extensive review of the literature and the existing financial situation in Mizoram.

The survey indicated that there was a limited financial awareness in the study region. About 32 per cent of the respondents were not aware of any financial products except the savings bank account. About 20 per cent of the respondents reported lack of knowledge of the basic payment options and about 43 per cent of the respondents reported knowledge but lack of usage of these options. About half of the respondents were found to be unaware of the financial institutions other than banks, viz., non-banking financial companies, microfinance institutions and small finance banks. It was also found that use of life insurance was low among respondents.

The financial inclusion score and financial literacy score for the study region was generated using the OECD/INFE (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/ International Network on Financial Education) Toolkit for measuring financial literacy and financial inclusion. The average financial literacy score estimated in the study was 14.37 on a scale of 0 to 21 (i.e., 68.43 per cent). The average financial inclusion score was found to be 3.35 on a scale of 0 to 7 (i.e., 47.86 per cent).

Out of 27 factors considered for the study as possible determinants of financial inclusion and financial literacy, the place of residence (block) was found to have large effect on both. Besides this, the type of employment and type of family (joint versus nuclear) also moderately influenced financial literacy. The subjects studied by the respondents as part of academic curriculum were also found to have moderate effect on financial inclusion. The financial literacy and financial inclusion were found to have a negligible effect on each other.

The relatively lower level of economic development, particularly financial development in the north-eastern region (NER), as reflected in relatively lower credit intermediation, is a major concern from policy perspective. In this context, the study highlights the need to conduct a greater number of financial literacy workshops, especially for the people belonging to the vulnerable groups at regular intervals in the region. Moreover, the development and outcome of such workshops need to be closely monitored by the funding agencies.

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Determinants of Financial Literacy and Financial Inclusion
in North-Eastern Region of India: A Case Study of Mizoram

Introduction

Financial literacy provides basic knowledge and skills to analyse and understand financial products and services and assists in taking informed financial decisions. Financial inclusion relates to the access to financial products and services. It is not limited to the basic access to deposits, but extends to the access to various financial services, including investments, credit, payments and insurance. Financial inclusion without financial literacy may lead to exploitation as consumers may not be in a position to choose the right products and end up taking uninformed decisions. On other hand, financial literacy without financial inclusion is akin to providing skills without an opportunity to apply the same. In the long run, however, financial literacy takes people closer towards financial inclusion as there is a high likelihood that a financially aware person will seek access to finance and also achieve it.

The Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) defines financial literacy as a combination of financial awareness, knowledge, skills, attitude and behaviour necessary to make sound financial decisions and ultimately achieve individual financial well-being. People achieve financial literacy through a process of financial education. According to the Reserve Bank’s ‘Committee on Financial Inclusion’ (Chairman: Dr. C. Rangarajan) (RBI, 2008), financial inclusion is the process of ensuring access to financial services, timely and adequate credit for vulnerable groups such as weaker sections and low-income groups at an affordable cost.

Financial literacy and financial inclusion are associated with each other. While there may be a positive correlation between the two, it is interesting to know if these two share a causal relation. It has been found in few studies that people who are financially included are not necessarily financially literate and many otherwise financially literate people are actually not financially included. Different studies in different places have arrived at contradictory findings, like there are studies which concluded that financial education results into higher savings for an individual in his/her lifespan later (Bernheim et al., 1997; Lusardi, 2003). However, some other studies could not find conclusive evidence that financial education improves personal financial decisions (Mandell, 2006; O’Connell, 2008). In the light of these contradictory results, it is interesting to know the other factors that have positive or negative impact on financial inclusion and financial literacy.

The North Eastern Region (NER) of India, comprising eight States namely, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim, is characterised with a unique socio-cultural segment and predominantly semi-urban and rural areas encompassing hilly geographic terrain. The NER, home to 3.8 per cent of the national population, occupies about 8 per cent of India’s total geographical area, and is strategically important with over 5,300 km of international borders. Economic activity and banking parameters of the NER States, however, have remained unfavourable vis-à-vis all-India figures. At the same time, there remains a significant diversity in the level of development among the north-eastern States.

The Government of India, Reserve Bank of India and the respective State governments have been making special efforts for an all-round development of the region. Recognising the critical role of financial sector in economic development, and to investigate the issues limiting the success in achieving financial inclusion in NER, the Reserve Bank constituted a committee on ‘Financial Sector Plan for NER’ (Chairperson: Smt. Usha Thorat, 2006). Further, to address the issues related to development of the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) sector in NER, a separate sub-group was constituted under the Prime Minister’s task force on MSMEs (Chairman: Shri T.K.A. Nair) in 2009.

It was also emphasised in the literature that financial inclusion and development of NER holds the key to balanced regional economic prosperity (Rajan, 2016). The relatively low level of economic development, in general, and financial development in particular, of NER, as reflected in relatively lower credit intermediation, is a major concern from policy perspective.

In this context, the rest of the study is organised as follows: Section 2 lays out the objectives and rationale for choosing the State of Mizoram for the study. Section 3 highlights the socio-economic profile of the State. Section 4 presents the literature review. Section 5 provides the banking landscape of Mizoram economy. Section 6 presents empirical results and Section 7 concludes the study.

2. Objectives and Rationale for Choosing Mizoram for the Study

The objectives of this study are set out as follows:

1. To understand the architecture and ecosystem of Mizoram’s economy using secondary data;
2. To estimate the financial inclusion score of the State;
3. To analyse the factors, which determine financial inclusion in the State;
4. To estimate the level of financial literacy in the State;
5. To analyse the factors, which determine financial literacy in the State;
6. To assess public awareness about various government schemes (such as Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT), Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY), PM Jan Dhan Yojna (PMJDY), etc.).

As per CRISIL (2018) Inclusix Score, North East Region (NER) is the least financially included region of India. Mizoram stood 31st among all the States in India by CRISIL Inclusix Score, though it is one of the most urbanised States of India. At the time of the survey conducted by CRISIL, out of eight districts, seven were ranked below 440 among all the districts of India. The capital of the State, Aizawl, stood at 294th in rank.

Interestingly, Mizoram is found to enjoy high branch penetration and above-average credit and deposit penetration as compared to other States. Further, as per the Census of India 2011, it is the second-most literate State in India whereas as second-least financially literate State as per National Centre for Financial Education Report, 2013.

The banking development in NER, including Mizoram, is a phenomenon post-bank nationalisation in 1969. Prior to it, no bank branch of commercial bank existed in Mizoram. In the year 1972, when it was accorded the status of a Union Territory, the whole of the State was served by a single branch of State Bank of India (SBI). Even today, the banking penetration remains highly skewed in terms of location. Furthermore, unlike other States, only one regional rural bank (RRB) serves whole of the State.

The studies focusing on financial inclusion and financial literacy in the State are less in number. All these aspects make the State an interesting case study to understand the factors influencing financial inclusion and financial literacy in a hilly State with a difficult geographical terrain.

3. Socio-Economic Profile of Mizoram

The State is situated in the southern corner of NER. The word ‘Mizoram’ is a combination of two words of local language, viz., Mizo and Ram. The word “Mizo” means ‘native inhabitants’ while “Ram” means ‘land’, thus “Mizoram” means ‘land of the Mizos’. It was known as Lushai Hills District of Assam till 1954 and then was renamed as Mizo Hills District of Assam until 1972, when it was carved out and given the status of a Union Territory. It continued as a Union Territory until 1987, when it was declared as the 23rd State of India on February 20, 1987 by the 53rd Amendment of the Indian Constitution.

3.1 History and Geography of Mizoram

Mizoram is a land-locked State sharing its borders with three Indian States, viz., Tripura (277 Kms) in the northwest, Assam (123 Kms) in the north and Manipur (95 Kms) in the northeast. It shares its boundary with two neighbouring countries, viz., Myanmar (404 Kms) in the east and south and Bangladesh (318 Kms) in the west. It had three districts when it was given the status of a State (1987), viz., Aizawl, Lunglei and Lawngtlai. In the year 1998, five new districts were created, viz., Kolasib, Mamit, Serchhip, Champhai (carved out of Aizawl) and Saiha (carved out of Lawngtlai). Recently on June 03, 2019, three new districts were added, viz., Hnahthial (carved out of Lunglei), Khawzawl (carved out of Champhai) and Saitual (carved out of Aizawl and Champhai).

About 95 per cent of population in State is of diverse tribal origins, mostly from Southeast Asia, who were settled over waves of migration since 16th century but mainly in 18th century. It has the highest concentration of tribal people among all States in India, and they are currently protected under the Indian constitution as a Scheduled Tribe. The tribes adopted Christianity over the first half of 20th century. Now, it is one of the three States of India with a Christian majority (87 per cent). Its people belong to various denominations, mostly Presbyterian in north and Baptists in south.

It is a highly literate agrarian economy; however, it suffers from slash-and-burn jhum or shifting cultivation, and poor crop yields. In recent years, the jhum farming practices are steadily being replaced with a significant horticulture and bamboo products industry. The State has about 871 kilometres of national highways, with NH-54 and NH-150 connecting it to Assam and Manipur respectively. It is also a growing transit point for trade with Myanmar and Bangladesh. It is a land of rolling hills, valleys, rivers and lakes. As many as 21 major hill ranges or peaks of different heights run through the length and breadth of the State. As per the State of Forest Report, Mizoram has the highest forest cover as a percentage of its geographical area, i.e., 84.5 per cent.

The fabric of social life in the Mizo society has undergone tremendous changes over years. Before the British moved into the hills, the village and the clan formed units of Mizo society for all practical purposes. Mizos are giving up their old customs rapidly and adopting new modes of life, which is greatly influenced by the western culture. Many of their present customs are mixtures of their old traditions and western pattern of life.

3.2 Architecture of the Mizoram Economy: A Sectoral Analysis

In line with the trend in structural shift in other States, the share of agriculture has declined and the share of industry and services sector in gross state value added (GSVA) has picked up (Chart 3.1). Within the agriculture sector, ‘forestry and logging’ (accounting for more than half of the agriculture and allied sector) dominates and its share has expanded in the last couple of years with a corresponding shrinkage in the share of crops, livestock and fishing and aquaculture (Chart 3.2). Mizoram is richly endowed with bamboo forests, which broadly cover half of the State’s land. It has the largest bamboo cover as a proportion of its geographical area in the country. It produces a variety of bamboo-based handicraft products and exports bamboo and teak wood to Bangladesh. The handloom production, estimated to be Rs.6 crore, generates several non-farm employment. It has great potential for export under the Look East Policy of the Government of India, given the similarity of fabrics being worn by the inhabitants of the South East Asian countries as produced by local weavers of the State.

In line with the all-India trend, despite the decline in the share of agriculture in GSVA, the State economy is primarily agrarian with 60 per cent of the population depending, directly or indirectly, on agriculture. Rest of the working population is engaged in government jobs, small businesses and transport activities. Within the industrial sector, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ dominates with 56.4 per cent share in the industrial sector followed by ‘construction’ with 39.8 per cent share in 2019-20 (Chart 3.3). Manufacturing constitutes around 0.7 per cent of the GSVA, while mining constitutes around 0.3 per cent of GSVA.

Within the industrial sector, the share of manufacturing, mining and construction has been shrinking in the last couple of years, while that of ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ has been expanding. As per the sectoral composition, services sector activity dominates the State economy as it accounts for nearly half of the GSVA (Chart 3.4). The service sector is dominated by public administration, which constitutes around 30 per cent of the services sector followed by trade, repair, hotels and restaurants.

The overall GSVA growth in the State has been highly volatile in line with the growth of the constituent sectors, which have exhibited marked year-to-year variation (Chart 3.5). Mizoram remains distinct from other north-eastern States in terms of economic development, the second highest per capita income followed by Sikkim in the NER. In line with its elevated level of per capita income, its poverty level is lower than the national average (Chart 3.6).

3.2.i Agriculture

Agriculture is the mainstay of the people of Mizoram (Savant and Patnaik, 1998). About 90 per cent of the farmers in the State are small and marginal farmers³. The average size of land holding of the farmers is 1.25 hectares.

Jhum or shifting cultivation is the main agricultural practice and it is carried out annually by a large number of people living in rural areas. The productivity of this type of agriculture is comparatively lesser than the national average. The performance of area, production and yield of major food-grains in the State suggests a mixed trend (Chart 3.7). Rice, coarse cereals and pulses are the main crops.

Food grain production, at 76.9 thousand tonnes (in 2019-20), is the least amongst the NER States. It constituted merely one per cent of the total food grain production of the region. The State has total geographical area of 2,108,700 ha of which net sown area is 218,608 ha (10.4 per cent of total geographical area). The average of gross and net sown area for the last five years in Mizoram has changed in tandem with NER (Chart 3.8).

Net irrigated area in the State is 18,813 ha, which is just 8.6 per cent of total sown area. Major and medium irrigation is a challenge due to the hilly terrain. Although Mizoram receives sufficient rainfall during monsoon, only small areas of fertile land can be brought under cultivation during rabi season due to lack of enough water harvesting structures. Concerted efforts are required to increase soil moisture retention capacity, create irrigation facilities like tube wells, rainwater-harvesting structures and other water bodies for life saving irrigation during dry season. The State is blessed with an abundant rainfall, but its porous soil and inadequate irrigation infrastructure has affected its crop yield. The yield issue can be addressed by creating irrigation infrastructure and adoption of better crop technologies. Chart 3.9 shows that the State also has very low consumption of fertilisers and pesticides.

Farm mechanisation on an extensive scale is not feasible in the State due to hilly terrain, limited flat land, fragmented land holdings and poor road connectivity. Consequently, use of tractors and power tillers, adoption of new cropping pattern and efficient utilisation of available irrigation facilities are not being utilised at desired level for increasing the agricultural production in the State.

Given the by and large subsistence nature of farming, the requirements of credit by agricultural households are meagre. As per the NSSO’s survey, agricultural households in Mizoram met about 86 per cent of their loan needs from institutional sources (Chart 3.10). This contrasts with some of the other NER States such as Manipur wherein the informal sources formed a significant chunk of credit (Chart 11).

RBI Working Paper Series No. 01

Measuring Contagion Effects of Crude Oil Prices on Sectoral Stock Price Indices in India

Madhuchhanda Sahoo, Arvind Kumar Shrivastava, Jessica Maria Anthony and Thangzason Sonna^@

Abstract

¹This paper explores the contagion effects of extreme changes in global crude oil prices on sectoral stock price indices in India. Using generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) for estimating excess returns or exceedances i.e., deviations from thresholds, and multinomial logit model (MNL) for assessing the probability of contemporaneous excess returns or co-exceedances, the paper finds a significant likelihood of co-exceedances among 10 sectoral stock price indices when faced with extreme changes in global crude oil prices. This points to the existence of a contagion effect. The evidence of positive co-exceedances is stronger, and the results are found more robust when relevant control variables are introduced – exchange rate returns (INR-USD), 10-year G-sec yield, and differential stock returns, (i.e., small firms minus big firms (SMB)). The contagion effect on all sectoral indices, irrespective of their direct and indirect exposure to oil price dynamics, highlights the need for hedging by investors as mere diversification of portfolios may not be sufficient to protect their assets from an adverse oil price shock.

JEL classification: C32, G12, G15Key Words: Co-exceedances, Indian stock market sector, extreme values, multinomial logit

Introduction

The studies on contagion effects of extreme changes in global prices of crude oil on sectoral stock indices done in the Indian context are rare. There are not many studies on this subject even at the international level. The increasing cross-border financial integration warrants that the contagion effects of global prices of crude oil – one of the most actively traded commodities worldwide – on stock prices is understood better. For an oil-dependent economy like India, importing around 80 per cent of its consumption requirements, the need for a deeper understanding of the contagion effects of global crude oil prices is all the more pressing.

Oil has both commodity and financial attributes. As a commodity, while rising oil price increases the operating costs of firms leading to depressed stock prices, as a financial asset, when higher oil price is driven by higher demand expansion, it positively affects stock returns. Studies have observed that crude oil shocks can influence expected earnings in the equity markets, both within and across borders, while the macroeconomic impact of oil price shocks can also have ramifications for overall liquidity in the financial market.

Commensurate with being the second-largest country in the world in terms of population, the fifth-largest economy in the world, and third in Asia, India holds the distinction of being the third-largest consumer of oil, next only to China and the US. Likewise, India is the third-largest importer of crude oil after the US and China. Domestically, oil is the largest source of the country’s total energy supply next only to coal and also is the largest in terms of total final consumption. The demand for oil is increasing rapidly. Yet, owing to low natural endowment and stagnant domestic production, India’s reliance on imports for meeting the demand-supply gap is high. Also, the oil and gas sector is one of the six core industries in India and is among the most traded commodities. It is, therefore, natural that the implications of extreme changes in global prices of crude oil on the Indian macro economy would be profound. In the same vein, it may not be farfetched to expect movements in global prices of crude oil to impact Indian stock indices. More so because the Indian stock market has grown larger, and the Indian financial system is substantially integrated with the global financial system over the years.

In this backdrop, with the motivation to empirically examine the existence of contagion effect of extreme changes in global crude oil returns on 10 composite sectoral indices of Indian stock markets, the paper employs the multinomial logit model (MNL), as in Sheng Fang and Paul Egan (2018) for China. The threshold returns for global crude oil price and sectoral stock indices – both for the top and bottom tails, are established using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) function. Having established the thresholds, the MNL model is used to examine the probability of extreme returns or exceedances, defined as deviation from thresholds, contemporaneously occurring among the stock sectors due to exceedances in oil price returns, which the literature has defined as contagion effects.

The study has been organised into five sections. Section II presents the review of the literature and the stylised facts. Section III provides a detailed explanation of methodology, data, and preliminary analysis. Section IV reports and analyses the empirical results and Section V concludes the paper.

II. Review of Literature and Stylised Facts

II.1 Review of Literature

Hamilton (1983) discovered that crude oil price changes played a key role during every post-World War-II US recession. After his pioneer work, exploring the linkages between crude oil price and the real sectors of the economy has been a major area of theoretical and empirical research. Successive researchers investigated the association between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variables – economic growth, aggregate demand, inflation, and employment in various countries. The subsequent studies that followed, established without ambiguity that oil price shock has the potential to trigger cost-push inflation, adversely affecting profitability and causing generalised inflation. And if unchecked, it can engulf the whole economy, leading to higher unemployment, compressed demand, and consumption, discouraging investment, and a sustained growth slowdown.

Indeed, the crude oil price surge due to the Arab oil embargo was at the core of the global slowdown during 1974-75. The global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.9 per cent in 1973, fell to 2.1 per cent in 1974, and to 1.4 per cent in 1975. It was only by 1976 after the oil embargo that the world economy returned to its normal rate of growth. The US GDP contracted for three consecutive years during 1973-75 and unemployment and inflation rates more than doubled. So pervasive was the impact that it led to an aspersion on the foundation of Classical Economics, according to which inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, and its off-shoot – the Philips Curve – which assumed a steady, permanent, and direct relationship between employment and inflation.

The studies on the relationship between volatility in crude oil price movements and stock indices have been relatively of a new vintage as compared to studies on the relationship between crude oil price movements and macroeconomic variables. The premise that the rise in performance of the stock market is a good indicator of economic activity, has existed all along as a perceived notion. In fact, this notion led to another perceived notion of the existence of a causal relationship between crude oil price and the stock market. Studies like Nasseh and Strauss (2000); Pethe and Karnik (2000); Singh (2010); Dhiman and Sahu (2010) have attempted to empirically examine the relationship between crude oil price and macroeconomic variables in different countries including India. Most studies observed a strong relationship between crude oil price movements and macroeconomic variables.

As regards crude oil price movements and stock markets, the empirical literature has been vast, and the findings thereof point mostly to an inverse relationship. There have, however, been a few studies that have found the relationship to be non-existent as well. Commonly, the relationship between the two markets has been analysed using (a) extreme returns on crude oil price, frequent fluctuations in crude oil prices, the net external trading position of the country in the global crude oil market (exporter or importer), and origin of crude oil price shocks (demand or supply-driven) on the one hand, and (b) overall returns or volatility of stock markets on the other, with relevant control variables like foreign currency exchange rate and interest rate.

A study on stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pointed out that negative oil price change had a larger negative impact on the stock markets of Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar which being oil exporting countries are relatively more responsive to the considerable oil price change (IMF WP, 2018). The stock markets of Latin American countries have been found to respond positively to increases in oil prices during 2000-2015 (Salgado et al., 2017). According to the authors, their finding can be explained based on regional closeness, shared institutional, historical and cultural features, and the way country-funds and regional-funds managers and other institutional investors who hold Latin American stocks react to oil price shocks.

Examining the differential impacts of fluctuations in crude oil prices on oil-importing and exporting countries, Asteriou, Dimitras, and Lendewig (2013) observed that the impact was higher for countries importing crude oil than countries exporting it and that the relationship between oil price and stock markets was more robust than between various interest rates – both in the short and long-runs. Imarhiabel (2010) also examined the effect of crude oil prices on the prices of stocks of select major oil-producing and consuming countries such as Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, China, and the United States, and detected that stock prices were affected by both oil prices and currency exchange rates. Further, a time-series study of almost three decades by Thorbecke (2019) highlighted that the US stock markets got negatively affected by shocks in oil price during 1990-2007, but after that, they were positively affected during 2010 to 2018 indicating a change in nature of the relation. This finding, according to the author was explained by the rise of shale oil production and the changed structure of US economy – stocks in many sectors that were harmed by oil price increases before the Shale revolution benefited in the latter period.

Even for India, the relationship between the two markets has been negative according to most studies. A study by Rai and Bairagi (2014) showed a significant correlation between a crude oil price change and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex for the period 2003 to 2012. Another study by Sathyanarayana et al. (2018) spoke of a positive, significant, and direct relationship between crude oil and BSE Sensex, with an increase in oil price leading to an increase in share market price. Fluctuations in crude oil price return exerted a significant impact on the volatility of stock market returns in India and such volatility spillovers were stronger following the global financial crisis (Anand et al., 2014).

But there have been exceptions. According to Chittendi (2012), volatile stock prices did not necessarily have a significant impact on oil price volatility and there was no long-run equilibrium relationship between international crude oil price and the Indian stock market during 2003 to 2011, although such a relation was observed during 2008-2011 (Ghosh and Kanjilal, 2016). Surprisingly, oil demand shocks, but not supply shocks, affected stock returns in India and its volatility, despite the fact that policy uncertainty could lead to negative returns and increased volatility (Anand et al., 2021).

Despite being a vastly studied topic, the precise relationship between crude oil price volatility and stock prices and the contagion effect thereof has not been stated with certainty. This has prompted a new approach to study the two markets i.e., to take into consideration industry-specific stock prices. The widely held view is that the sectoral segregation of stock market indices is necessary to gain a deeper knowledge of the impact of crude oil price fluctuations.

However, even in this regard, there have been not many studies in the Indian context. Studies exist for other countries, such as the US, Europe, and China. A study by Degiannakis et al. (2013) highlights the importance of the sectoral division of the stock market with regard to various industries as an important determinant in determining the nature of the association between prices of international crude oil and the stock market. They examine equity returns of 10 European industrial sectoral indices and their linkages with oil price changes via the Diag-VECH GARCH model and conclude that relationships are industry-specific. Another study on the relationship of European sectoral stocks with crude oil prices is found to be asymmetric (Arouri, 2011) and strongly varying across sectors. While Automobiles and parts, Financials, Food and Beverages, and Health care show a negative relationship, Oil and Gas show a positive relationship.

In another study by Thorbecke (2019), a positive relationship between crude oil price volatility and stock prices were seen for industries that acted as an input to the energy sector, such as industrial machinery and marine transport and industries in the oil supply chain (petrochemicals). Kang et al. (2017) concluded that the index for the oil and gas industry responded negatively to negative supply-side shocks and positively to positive aggregate demand shocks for the US.

It was also found that stock prices of manufacturing, chemical, medical, food, transportation, computer, real estate, and general services responded negatively to a rise in oil prices, whereas the results were indeterminate for stock prices of engineering, electricity, and financial sectors by using 56 firm-level stocks of the US (Narayan and Sharma, 2011). In one interesting time-series study by Singhal and Ghosh (2016), the relation of seven industry-specific sectoral stock prices of BSE with crude oil prices was examined and significant empirical evidence was obtained.

Yet in another study, Rajan and Lourthuraj (2020) have tried to understand the impact of crude oil price on the automotive sector and companies’ performances. Jambotkar and Anjana (2018) also through an empirical analysis studied the combined effects of macro-economic variables, including crude oil prices on selected National Stock Exchange (NSE) sectoral indices and found significant results. A recent paper by Fang and Egan (2018) investigated the contagion effects using extreme positive and negative returns and the multinomial logit model (MNL) for 10 Chinese stock sectoral indices. The theory of extreme value has been used the least to understand the oil price spill over on sectoral stock prices in the case of Indian stock markets. It was used only in a few other countries and other fields like Horvath et al. (2018) and Chan-Lau et al. (2012). In addition to this, the literature shows that very few studies exist on the impact of crude oil prices on cross-market linkage i.e., inter-sectoral linkage for extreme returns in crude oil prices for India’s stock markets.

Hence, a study of sectoral stock price indices and an attempt to measure inter-sectoral linkages are key to understanding the nature of the relationship between oil prices and industry-specific sectoral stock markets. This paper is a step in that direction.

II.2 Stylised Facts

The Indian stock market has grown significantly in the last two decades. The number of listed companies in the NSE is more than 1900 while its benchmark index, Nifty comprises 50 companies. The NSE also has many sectoral and thematic indices. Similarly, BSE’s Sensex is a weighted stock market index of 30 well-established listed companies. The BSE is among the world’s 10 largest exchanges in terms of the cumulative market capitalisation of all companies listed on its platform, as per the latest data available from the World Federation of Exchanges. The NSE has maintained the position of the largest derivatives exchange during 2019 and 2020 in terms of the number of contracts traded.

The BSE has the largest number of listed companies in the world (in the case of equities and debt). BSE is also the fastest exchange in the world with a median response time to trade of 6 microseconds. The NSE was by far the largest exchange in terms of stock index options trading, with over 1.85 billion contracts traded in H1 2019.

The average daily turnover in NSE was ₹57,677 crore and market capitalisation was ₹2,55,68,863 crore as on end-May 2022 and for BSE, the average daily turnover was ₹4,192.1 crore and the market capitalisation was at ₹2,57,78,368 crore in the same period. The stock market capitalisation to GDP ratio for BSE has improved significantly from 24 per cent in 1992-93 to 104.9 per cent in 2020-21.

Apart from these milestones, the co-movement of Indian stock indices with global crude oil price (Brent) and these indices getting affected by major global events make it even more necessary to study the relationship between these indices and global crude oil price (Chart 1).

The contagion impact of global crude oil price on stock indices at the sectoral level is also backed by theory. There are two prominent theories supporting the linkage of international crude oil price movements and sectoral/industry-specific trends in stock indices. The first one, the channel of Expected Cash Flows states that the rise in oil prices leads to a rise in the cost of production, which in turn can reduce profit margins and hence cash flows (Dadashi et al., 2015). Theoretically, oil marketing, paints, synthetic rubber (tires), and the aviation industry’s input costs might rise due to a surge in crude oil price and their stock prices fall with rise in global crude oil price. Similarly, oil production and exploration companies may profit from a rise in crude oil prices and their stock prices may rise. The second theory of Discounted Future Cash Flows says that high oil prices can lead to inflationary expectations and hence rise in the interest rate, ultimately leading to higher borrowing costs.

The ultimate response of stock prices to crude oil price shocks, however, would depend upon whether the company is oil-producing or consuming. More importantly, the input-output coefficient of that sector would determine the responsiveness of its stock to oil price shocks. The volatility in oil prices can affect the operating costs of firms – both oil-producing and consuming and hit their earnings. Similarly, the profit and dividends of firms that use oil as inputs – direct or indirect, are bound to be impacted by volatility in oil prices. Likewise, the volatility in oil prices for an oil-importing or exporting market will differ widely. An upward movement in oil prices, while increasing risk and uncertainty in oil-importing markets, will increase market returns for an oil-exporting market. With a view to exploring these aspects of the behaviour of oil price movements on sectoral stock indices, 10 sectoral stock indices from BSE/NSE have been mapped against the input-output coefficient of India (MOSPI, 2012) taking petroleum products as the input. The input-output coefficients² across eight sectors were estimated (Chart 2).

The higher input-output coefficients for Oil and Gas, and Basic Materials are on expected lines since the input intensity of petroleum products in these sectors is higher than in other sectors, such as IT and Financial Services. However, a broadly similar returns pattern can be observed across all stock sectors as well as Brent crude returns despite higher volatility in crude returns. All the 10 stock sector returns shared a statistically significant and positive correlation with Brent crude returns ranging between 0.11 to 0.20, indicative of the presence of contagion effect from extreme changes in global crude oil prices (Chart 3). Excessive volatility in oil price can affect expected earnings even for firms that are not related to oil directly thereby affecting equity prices.

III. Data and Methodology

III.1 Data and Preliminary Analysis

The time range for the paper is almost a decade and a half (14 years), from January 01, 2007 to December 08, 2020. The period has been chosen keeping in mind two aspects: a) the availability of data on most sectoral indices and b) the occurrence of two defining global crises of the century – the global financial crisis of 2008 and COVID-19 induced-recession of 2020. The data used are high-frequency daily data.

Most of India’s crude oil imports are from the OPEC countries and Brent is their benchmark index. Moreover, Brent is highly correlated with West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Hence, daily data on International crude oil prices (Brent) has been taken from Bloomberg. Sources of stock indices are Bloomberg and NSE and BSE websites. The Nominal Exchange rate (USD/INR) is obtained from RBI and the Financial Benchmarks of India Private Ltd. (FBIL). Data on the long-term interest rate (G-Sec 10-year yield) is collected from Bloomberg. The 10 sectoral stock indices used in the study are – Capital Goods (BSETCG), Consumer Durables (BSETCD), Basic Materials (BSESPBSBMIP), Oil and Gas (BSEOIL), Auto (NSEAUTO), Information technology (NSEIT), FMCG (NSEFMCG), Metal (NSEMETAL), Financial Services (NSEFIN) and Commodities (NSECMD). The rationale for the choice of above mentioned 10 sectors is based on their importance to the economy, extreme returns, and input-output coefficients (Chart 3); and weights in stock exchanges (market capitalisation) (Chart 4).

RBI Working Paper Series No. 02

Tail Risks of Inflation in India

Silu Muduli and Himani Shekhar

Abstract

This paper estimates the tail risks of consumer price inflation in India using a quantile regression framework. It examines the impact of various domestic and global macroeconomic factors, along with the role of the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in influencing the inflation tail risks as well as in explaining the shifts in its conditional distribution. A rise in domestic income and household inflation expectations, elevated global commodity prices – both fuel (i.e., crude oil) and non-fuel, and easy financial conditions pose upside risks to Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation. The results also show that both lower and upper tail risks of inflation have stabilised in the FIT period and that the macroeconomic factors capture the tail risks to the inflation target band of 2 to 6 per cent in India reasonably well.

JEL Classification: C21, C53, E31, P24, P44

Keywords: Inflation at risk, inflation uncertainty, monetary policy

Introduction

A precise estimate of the future inflation path and uncertainties around it is crucial for a proper assessment of inflationary conditions. During extreme events, such as the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, it becomes very difficult to predict the trajectory of inflation due to uncertainties surrounding it. In such circumstances, the distribution of future inflation, in addition to the inflation forecast, may be useful for future guidance, particularly under a flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework.

For India, food – a major component of the consumer price index (CPI) basket – typically has higher volatility owing to supply-side issues and the monsoon dependence of Indian agriculture. As a result, any disruption in weather patterns gets reflected in production, and in turn, prices. Extreme weather events namely, excess rains, deficient rains, floods, cyclones etc., bring additional uncertainty around the conditional mean trajectory of food inflation and makes it less reliable. Similarly, the high dependence of India on crude oil imports makes it susceptible to any global oil price shock.

The uncertainty around food price inflation spills over to the uncertainty around CPI headline inflation as food occupies a significant proportion of the CPI basket and is also susceptible to many supply shocks. In such times of uncertainty, along with the mean path of future inflation, the distribution of inflation becomes crucial in the assessment of inflationary conditions. The inflation distribution may help in a proper assessment of the upside and downside risks to inflation.

The upside and downside risks to inflation are known as Inflation at Risk (in notation, IaR) in the literature, a measure similar in notion and concept to Value at Risk (VaR) in financial risk-management theory to estimate the market and credit risk of a portfolio (Andrade, Ghysels, and Idier, 2012; Banerjee et al., 2020; López-Salido and Loria, 2020). The conventional approach assumes the symmetric distribution of errors around the mean path, which, however, may not always hold. Thus, the asymmetric nature of future inflation distribution may be useful in explaining the tail risks (i.e., the possibility of extreme values on either side) of inflation and in helping the monetary policy in communicating the balance of risks.

Besides the asymmetry, understanding and accounting for the uncertainty around the central tendency are also crucial in stabilising inflation. Inflation uncertainty is one of the primary costs of inflation to the real economy as expected inflation is an important factor while making economic decisions. Uncertainty surrounding future inflation creates uncertainty regarding the future value of savings and investments, which in turn, may distort the efficient allocation of resources (Chowdhury, 2014). Consequently, inflation uncertainty can adversely affect consumption, investment, and growth. Since the monetary authority’s primary objective is to stabilise prices, it is also crucial to empirically examine whether it accounts for inflation uncertainty in monetary policy formulation.

Given the importance of the distributional characteristics of inflation, the paper derives a conditional distribution of inflation which also indicates the balance of upside or downside risks. The paper has the following objectives:

1. Estimate tail risks of inflation in India corresponding to various domestic and global drivers and test whether inflation risks have stabilised in the IT period;
2. Examine shifting of the conditional distribution of inflation for different domestic and global shocks;
3. Estimate expected tail values of inflation and examine the robustness of the models;
4. Examine the causal relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty and assess the reaction of the monetary policy to the asymmetric nature of conditional distribution and uncertainty around the central tendency.

Estimations of conditional distribution and tail risks are based on a hybrid version of the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) framework with financial conditions, crude oil price, and exchange rate of the Indian rupee (INR) vis-a-vis US dollar (USD) and global demand conditions- proxied by US real GDP growth as additional explanatory factors (Auer, Borio, and Filardo, 2017). The paper also examines the role of the IT framework in stabilising the tail risks. Therefore, the study includes both demand and supply-side factors in the estimation of the conditional distribution. In the Indian context, the existence of the Phillips curve has been established based on samples at national as well as sub-national levels in the post-GFC period (2007-09) (Behera, Wahi, and Kapur, 2018; Salunkhe and Patnaik, 2019). In this regard, a recent study by López-Salido and Loria (2020) concluded that tail risks are sensitive to domestic economic slack and have a significant role in influencing inflation distribution. Some recent studies have also considered the financial conditions index to examine the upside and downside risks to inflation during tight/easy financial conditions (Chevalier and Scharfstein, 1996; Gilchrist, Schoenle, Sim, and Zakrajšek, 2017). Chevalier and Scharfstein (1996) argue that during tight financial conditions, firms that face a higher constraint on accessing liquidity may set a higher price to increase their cash flow leading to higher inflation.

India adopted the flexible IT framework in 2016, which was reviewed in March 2021, wherein the inflation target of 4 per cent with a ±2 per cent band around it was continued until the next review in 2026. During the period from 2011-12 to 2013-14, the average CPI-C inflation rate stood at 9.4 per cent, which moderated gradually towards the midpoint of the target band during the IT period. Notably, CPI-C inflation averaged 3.9 per cent during the IT phase of October 2016 – March 2020. RBI (2021) highlights the success of the framework in anchoring inflation expectations of both households and professional forecasters and lowering average inflation.

Given the relevance of inflation projections in policy formulations, the RBI regularly publishes a fan chart of asymmetric inflation distribution based on a two-piece normal distribution which consists of two normal distributions below and above the mean (Banerjee and Das, 2011). Both the pieces have the same mean, but different standard deviations. This difference in standard deviations brings the asymmetry of a distribution around the mean. In the two-piece normal distribution, the values of standard deviations are derived from the past deviations from the forecast values, which incorporates asymmetry in the distribution. However, this paper derives the conditional distribution of inflation based on the estimated quantiles from quantile regression conditioned on the macroeconomic environment rather than depending on the past. Few recent studies in advanced economy central banks have highlighted the usefulness of conditional quantile regression in deriving the fan chart by incorporating expert judgements (for instance, see Sokol, 2021). Therefore, deriving the conditional distribution of inflation based on the current macroeconomic situation rather than depending on the past as in the case of a fan chart is the major contribution of this paper.

The paper analyses the historical tail risks and shifts in the conditional distribution of inflation for various shocks. It concludes that a rise in domestic income and household inflation expectations increases the upside risks and lowers the downside risks to inflation. Elevated global commodity prices of both fuel (i.e., crude oil) and non-fuel, global economic growth and easy financial conditions raise the upside risks to inflation. Further, the results add to the success story of the adoption of the IT framework in India in stabilising CPI headline inflation as both lower and upper tail risks of inflation have stabilised in the IT period. Regarding the predictive efficiency of the models, the paper concludes that the models based on various macroeconomic factors capture the tail risks to the inflation target band of 2 to 6 per cent in India to a considerable extent. While examining the response of the monetary policy to asymmetry and uncertainty of inflation distribution, the paper finds evidence of tightening of the monetary policy during the periods of higher inflation uncertainty.

The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section II discusses the literature on the conditional distribution and tail risks associated with CPI-C inflation in India. Building on the literature and existing data sets, Section III presents a few stylised facts for inflation in India during the sample period and discusses the methodology used in the paper. Section IV presents the empirical results and also examines the asymmetry and uncertainty pertaining to inflation distribution and the response of the monetary policy to these. The last section concludes the paper with a few policy implications.

II. Literature Review

Studies that focus explicitly on the analysis of tail risks of inflation are relatively new in the literature (Banerjee, Contreras, et al., 2020; López-Salido and Loria, 2020). However, a few studies in the last decade analyse the quantiles of inflation and their dynamics; for instance, Wolters and Tillmann (2015) examine the persistence of different quantiles in the conditional distribution of inflation. Gupta, Jooste, and Ranjbar (2017) find higher persistence of inflation for higher quantiles in the case of South Africa. In related literature on convergence, Tsong and Lee (2011) in a study of 12 OECD countries find asymmetric convergence of inflation to long-run value post negative and positive shocks using the quantile regression approach. They find that positive shocks are more persistent than negative shocks and converge slowly to the long-run level. Similar empirical evidence is also seen in Uganda (Anguyo, Gupta, and Kotzé, 2020).

Several studies have focussed on various determinants of inflation in a quantile regression framework; for instance, Iddrisu and Alagidede (2020) explain food inflation and its various determinants, such as economic growth, world food price inflation, monetary policy, etc., using quantile regression for South Africa. Lahiani (2019) explores the transmission of crude oil prices to different quantiles of overall prices for the US.

Further, a plethora of studies have focused on the important determinants of conditional mean inflation using Phillips-curve specification and its different versions. Many of these studies find that the Phillips curve relationship estimated at the mean level weakened after the GFC (Blanchard et al., 2015). A few studies extend the NKPC estimation by incorporating global economic slack along with domestic economic slack to explain the domestic inflation dynamics (Auer, Borio, and Filardo, 2017). However, the evidence of global economic slack is mixed. For instance, Forbes (2019) finds significant evidence of the role of global economic slack on domestic inflation, while Mikolajun and Lodge (2016) find a limited impact of it on domestic inflation. Xu, Niu, Jiang, and Huang (2015) use non-linear quantile regression to estimate the Phillips curve for the US and conclude that the shape of the Phillips curve differs across quantiles. In the case of India, researchers find evidence for the existence of the Phillips curve based on samples from national and sub-national data in the post-GFC period (2007-09) (Behera, Wahi, and Kapur, 2018; Salunkhe and Patnaik, 2019).

The above studies focus on exploring quantiles of inflation and do not explicitly mention the tail risks of inflation. Andrade et al. (2012) introduced an explicit analysis of tail risks of inflation i.e., “Inflation at Risk (IaR)” and used asymmetric property and distributional uncertainty to explain the monetary policy rule. The tail risks of inflation have been a major concern, particularly in advanced economies, in the post-GFC period (López-Salido and Loria, 2020).

Some recent studies have also considered the financial conditions index to examine the upside and downside risks² to inflation during tight/easy financial conditions (Chevalier and Scharfstein, 1996; Gilchrist, Schoenle, Sim, and Zakrajšek, 2017). Firms facing higher constraints on accessing liquidity during tight financial conditions and firms with weak balance sheets may set a higher price leading to higher inflation. In a recent study, Banerjee et al. (2020) use the volatility of asset prices as a proxy for tight financial conditions and find a significant impact of financial conditions on inflation. Some earlier studies based on quantile regression also find a positive association between stock market return and different quantiles of inflation in G7 countries (Alagidede and Panagiotidis, 2012).

Inflation at Risk is similar to the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) in financial risk management, i.e., the extreme quantiles for a given level of probability. Among macroeconomic variables, a similar measure is also available for economic growth as Growth at Risk (Prasad et al., 2019). López-Salido and Loria (2020) in their study of advanced economies explicitly derived the conditional distribution based on quantiles. Banerjee et al. (2020) extended the analysis by including emerging economies and estimated the conditional density. Their study concludes that countries with IT show a relative moderation in inflation risks than non-IT countries. Banerjee, Mehrotra, and Zampolli (2020) model the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and find higher upside and downside risks to inflation in emerging economies, and higher downside risks in the case of advanced economies.

The advancement in deriving the conditional distribution based on quantile is a novel contribution in the above studies as compared to earlier studies that used quantile regression to study the quantiles of inflation and their dynamics. These studies highlight, in particular, the impact of different shocks on the tail risks of inflation. In our analysis, we augment the above-discussed analysis for India and examine certain country-specific features to explain the dynamics of tail risks of inflation.

In related literature, Andrade et al. (2012) examine the response of the monetary policy to inflation asymmetry and uncertainty based on the professional forecasters’ survey data on inflation. A few studies explicitly analyse the relevance of inflation asymmetry on monetary policy formulation (Andrade et al., 2012; Evans, Fisher, Gourio, and Krane, 2016). Further, there exist several studies that discuss the causality and reverse causality between the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty (Cukierman and Meltzer, 1986; Sharaf, 2015; Su, Yu, Chang, and Li, 2017).

According to Friedman (1977), higher average inflation causes uncertainty about future monetary policy responses, resulting in broad differences in actual and expected inflation, and therefore, leads to economic inefficiency making it detrimental to growth. This relationship was later formalised in a game-theoretic framework by Ball (1992) and the work is known as the Friedman-Ball hypothesis. On the contrary, Pourgerami and Maskus (1987) argue that inflation and inflation uncertainty have a negative relationship and reject the hypothesis of the deleterious effect of high inflation on price predictability as elevated inflation levels lead to the deployment of additional resources for lowering projection error resulting in better forecasts and hence reduction in inflation uncertainty.

Coming to another dimension of a causal link from inflation uncertainty to inflation, Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) postulate that increased inflation uncertainty causes inflation to increase – the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. When policymakers act with low credibility, the ambiguity of goals and poor quality of monetary control, then it may lead to an increase in the average inflation rate (Rojas, 2019). The flip side of this hypothesis is proposed by Holland (1995) who concludes that higher volatility of inflation reduces price levels reflecting policy makers’ motives for stabilisation. Further, sometimes the bidirectional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is also observed under the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis – higher inflation will increase the inflation uncertainty and vice-versa. In the case of India, Chowdhury (2014) finds evidence in support of this hypothesis using the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. Kundu, Bhoi, and Kishore (2018) also present similar evidence between inflation and inflation volatility graphically at the sub-national level.

Inflation uncertainty is a major concern for the monetary authority, as it assigns weights inter-temporarily to minimise its loss preference. Although not explicitly, a few studies have shown the detrimental effect of high inflation uncertainty on economic activity (Sauer and Bohara, 1995; Zhang, 2010). Hence, it becomes imperative for the monetary authority to reduce inflation uncertainty through appropriate policy instruments (Gan, Yee, Hadi, and Jalil, 2019; Zhang, 2010). In a standard monetary policy rule, besides output gap and inflation, studies have included exchange rate, global policy rate, and global economic growth to examine their impact on the monetary policy rate (Hutchison, Sengupta, and Singh, 2010; Reserve Bank of India, 2021). However, there are very few studies that explicitly model inflation uncertainty in the monetary policy rule to estimate its impact (Andrade et al., 2012).

This paper adds to the limited literature in the Indian context on the importance of tail risks of inflation and their role in monetary policy. In this paper, we derive the conditional distribution of inflation based on the quantile regression in an NKPC framework that incorporates the macroeconomic environment. Further, we examine the role of distributional asymmetry and uncertainty in the monetary policy formulation. Our results support the causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty.

III. Empirical Analysis

III.1. Stylised Facts

The uncertainty around food price inflation spills over to the uncertainty around headline inflation as food is a major contributor to CPI headline inflation variance (Chart 1)³. Within the FIT framework, price stability – avoiding high inflation rates or very low inflation rates over time – is the primary mandate for the RBI as volatile prices distort the economy’s price signals and may result in the misallocation of resources.

The CPI-C headline inflation has undergone significant changes in its distribution over the last decade in line with the evolving macroeconomic conditions (Chart 2a). Too high or too low inflation representing the upside and downside tail risks to inflation, respectively, is detrimental to RBI’s secondary objective of growth as well, and thus, requires a proper assessment of these risks. The FIT period coincided with a moderation in CPI inflation on the back of consecutive years of bumper food grains and horticulture production and relatively stable global commodity prices, particularly the crude oil. Irrespective of the broad easing of inflation, headline inflation deviated from the target, and went once below the lower bound of 2 per cent (in June 2017) and above the upper bound of 6 per cent consistently during December 2019-December 2020 mirroring the developments in food prices primarily owing to monsoon-related shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic-related supply disruptions (Chart 2b).

Given the high weight of food in the CPI basket, which is susceptible to adverse supply shocks, pressures in the food basket not only drives up the CPI headline inflation but also contributes substantially to its variance (Chart 3a and Chart 1). High levels of CPI inflation are often accompanied by higher volatility (Chart 3b). High inflation rates accentuate concerns about future inflation as they have the potential to influence long-term interest rates and generate uncertainty about the future value of the investment, savings, wages, tax rates, etc. In light of the fact that price stability is the primary objective of central banks, the volatility around the inflation path warrants the attention of the monetary authority. The asymmetry of distribution assumes greater importance given the fact that economic agents’ expectations are influenced by the distribution of the realised inflation (RBI, 2021).

III.2. Data and Summary Statistics

This paper uses the monthly CPI-C inflation rate (y-o-y, per cent) from September 2009 to December 2019 (before 2011, CPI-IW (CPI Industrial Workers) is used). Table 1 presents the summary statistics of variables used in the paper. The CPI-C inflation averaged around 7 per cent during the sample. It remained above average during 2010-2012. It moderated subsequently to around 4 per cent with RBI’s formal adoption of the FIT framework in 2016, which was preceded by a transitional glide path from 2014-15. The one-year ahead median inflation expectations of households have been used as a proxy for a forward-looking measure of inflation expectations⁴ which averaged around 11.33 per cent during the sample. As households’ inflation expectations are observed quarterly, a cubic spline methodology has been employed to convert it into a monthly series (Stuart, 2018). Given the fact that the inflation expectations series is relatively persistent and stable, the above methodology might be a better approximation to obtain monthly frequency data.

GDP growth at the constant market price has been used as a proxy for demand conditions in NKPC estimation (Banerjee et al., 2020). For real GDP growth, a similar methodology has been applied to adjust for the index of industrial production (IIP) and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) composite indicator for India, which are observed every month and are coincident indicators of economic activities (see details of this interpolation in Appendix A2). In addition to these variables, NKPC estimation has been augmented with exchange rate, global commodity prices, financial conditions and global demand conditions to explain the inflation dynamics. On an average, the rupee has depreciated by 4 per cent vis-a-vis USD over the sample period with a very high degree of volatility. Commodity prices have been captured through Indian basket crude oil prices and global non-fuel commodity prices published by the IMF.

To account for financial conditions, Citi financial conditions index (hereafter Citi FCI) for India has been used as a proxy for financial conditions, which has a relatively better forecasting power in predicting real economic activity (Hatzius et al., 2010). The Citi FCI consists of a weighted average of the following variables: corporate spreads, money supply, equity values, mortgage rates, the trade-weighted dollar, and energy prices. A higher value of Citi FCI indicates easy monetary conditions, and a lower value indicates a tight financial condition. To incorporate global demand, US real GDP growth has been considered.

Moreover, we also analyse the importance given to inflation uncertainty and its distributional asymmetry in monetary policy formulation. For this purpose, the weighted average call rate (WACR) has been used as a proxy for the monetary policy rate. WACR is the operating target of the monetary policy, which is stable and symmetrically distributed at around 6.7 per cent.

Table 1: Summary Statistics
Variables	N	Mean	Std. Dev.	Median	Kurtosis	Skewness
CPI-C Headline Inflation	124	6.99	3.36	5.92	2.51	0.52
1-year Ahead Median Household Inflation Expectations	124	11.33	2.47	11.18	1.8	0.25
Real GDP Growth Rate	124	6.48	1.973	6.22	6.3	1.27
Exchange Rate Growth Rate	124	3.99	7.47	3.36	2.87	0.52
Crude Oil Price Growth Rate	124	5.81	32.45	3.2	2.82	0.3
Global non-fuel Price Index Growth Rate	124	2.22	13.88	-1.4	2.73	0.73
US Real GDP Growth Rate	124	2.16	0.95	2.2	12.25	-2.12
Citi FCI	124	-0.39	0.38	-0.46	3.11	0.67
WACR	124	6.76	1.43	6.72	3.34	-0.51
Notes: For definitions and sources, please see Appendix Table A1. Source: Authors’ estimates.

III.3. Methodology

The paper uses quantile regression to estimate the upper and lower tail risks. In a quantile regression, the quantiles of the dependent variable are explained by the set of explanatory variables. In an ordinary least square (OLS) regression, the estimated relationship is the average relationship between dependent and explanatory variables, whereas in the case of quantile regression the estimated relationship is for different specified quantiles. Thus, the benefit of using quantile regression is to estimate the role of explanatory variables in explaining extreme observations (or extreme quantiles) of the dependent variable. Since the study focuses on tail risks of inflation, quantile regression is an appropriate methodology to estimate the tail risks. Putting the quantile regression model more formally, for a dependent variable y explained by realised vector x, the quantile regression for p^th quantile is given by,

In the later part of the paper, the conditional distribution has been estimated by minimising the sum of squares of the distance between the estimated quantiles from the quantile regression and quantiles derived from theoretical skewed distribution. The reason behind considering a skewed distribution is to provide space for the possible asymmetric feature of the conditional distribution. The paper considers a skewed normal distribution to estimate the smooth conditional distribution with asymmetric properties. The skewed normal distribution with parameters µ, δ, α, is given by

IV. Results

IV.1. Conditional Distribution and Tail Risks

For analysing the tail risks, the paper considers four domestic factors: one-year ahead households’ inflation expectations based on the RBI survey; real GDP growth; exchange rate vis-à-vis US dollar; and crude oil prices. In addition to this, we have also examined the impact of financial conditions and the role of FIT on tail risks of inflation in the aftermath of its implementation.

All the variables have been incorporated in the form of year-on-year percentage changes in the equations except inflation expectations (which already reflects y-o-y change) and Citi FCI. The FIT framework has been incorporated into the model through a dummy variable which takes the value of 1 after August 2016, and 0 otherwise⁵. The results of quantile regression are shown in Chart 4. The one-year ahead median household inflation expectations play a crucial role in CPI headline inflation dynamics.

The impact of the inflation expectations is relatively less on lower tail risks and gradually increases for higher quantiles. The domestic real GDP growth has an impact on CPI headline inflation till the third quantile. The exchange rate has a positive effect on tail risks of inflation and a very limited effect at the median level though not significant. However, a time-varying plot of coefficients of exchange rate reveals that it broadly remained significant during 2015-2018 (Appendix Chart A4).

The crude oil price has an impact on the median level and upper tail risks of inflation. Easy financial conditions have a positive influence on tail risks of inflation, and the sensitivity is relatively higher for upper tail risks. The introduction of the FIT dummy identifies the impact of FIT on CPI headline inflation tail risks. A negative coefficient of this dummy supports the success of the FIT framework. Since inflation was on a falling trend even before FIT adoption in India in 2016, the lower as well as the upper tail risks have come down by 3 percentage points.

We estimate the tail risks of inflation based on the estimated parameters of domestic and global determinants of inflation. The tail risks are conditional on historical sample data with 5 per cent tails both in lower and upper tails. The lower tail risk (l_(0.05)) is considered as a measure for downside risks to inflation, and the upper tail risk (u_0.95) is considered to be upside inflation risks. The estimated tail risks are shown in Chart 5. The upper tail risks of CPI headline inflation fell to a level of around 7 per cent in 2019 from a level of 15 per cent in 2010. Similarly, the lower tail risks also went down to around 2 per cent in 2019 from 8 per cent in 2010. The downward shift in inflation tail risks could be partly attributed to the success of FIT and central bank credibility (Ayres et al., 2014). Importantly, the upper tail risks fell till 2016, and they remained around 7 per cent afterwards, whereas the lower tail risks continuously fell during the sample period. This means that during the FIT period, the downside risks were relatively higher compared to upside risks coming particularly from food reflecting successive years of bumper food grains and horticulture production.

In the scenario analysis, we set preconditions on explanatory variables that influence the inflation dynamics. For simplicity, we assume data points of December 2019 as the preconditions. Next, we consider the standard deviation of the variables for one year before, i.e., January 2019 to December 2019. Then we provide one standard deviation shock to each explanatory variable and examine their impact on the conditional distribution of inflation one by one.

RBI WPS (DEPR): 02/2023: Tail Risks of Inflation in India
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=21627