分类： 银行网讯

The coronavirus outbreak upended markets in March, and the Federal Reserve said on Friday that the financial system had exacerbated that turmoil and warned that highly indebted businesses remained a vulnerability that could hurt the broader economy.

The financial system “amplified the shock” as short-term funding markets in particular seized up in March, the Fed said. Some hedge funds were “severely affected” and “reportedly” contributed to market dislocations, according to the central bank’s financial stability report.

The Fed used the annual report to sound a warning bell on persistent weaknesses that have the potential to worsen the fallout in markets — which could then spill back into the rest of the economy — as coronavirus lockdowns slow growth, spurring job losses and causing consumers to pull back spending.

Businesses went into the crisis highly indebted, the Fed pointed out. As they miss out on sales and income, they may default on their debts. That could have knock-on effects: Credit losses could pair with low interest rates to hurt profitability at banks, which entered the crisis well capitalized and are, at least for now, holding up and lending steadily.

“We will be monitoring closely for solvency stresses among highly leveraged business borrowers, which could increase the longer the Covid pandemic persists,” Lael Brainard, a Fed governor, said in a statement accompanying the release. She noted that the Fed’s early interventions “have been effective in resolving liquidity stresses.”

The Fed’s report is the most detailed glimpse yet at how the central bank understands the financial gyrations that took hold as coronavirus cases began surfacing in America.

Among the areas the Fed flagged:

Wild swings tested the financial system’s resilience.

Even the market for Treasury securities — the deepest and most liquid in the world — ceased to function normally as investors became attuned to the economic risk and cashed out their holdings.

• “While the financial regulatory reforms adopted since 2008 have substantially increased the resilience of the financial sector, the financial system nonetheless amplified the shock, and financial sector vulnerabilities are likely to be significant in the near term,” the report said.

• In March, “funding markets proved less fragile than during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Nonetheless, significant strains emerged, and emergency Federal Reserve actions were required to stabilize short-term funding markets.”
• In the Treasury market — where the Fed has bought securities at a rapid pace since mid-March to restore functioning — the difference between selling prices and buyer asking prices has declined to more normal levels, but “some measures, such as market depth, have shown only modest signs of improvement.”

Hedge funds may have worsened turmoil.

As investors pulled cash from money market mutual funds and the market for short-term business debt looked shaky — echoing what happened in the 2007-9 downturn — a more surprising weakness surfaced in the market for Treasury bonds, especially older ones. Speculation has been rampant that hedge funds contributed to the turmoil, and the Fed acknowledged that in its report.

• Some hedge funds buy and sell securities frequently to make small amounts of money that add up over a large number of trades. They are forced to sell their holdings if markets become hard to trade in, which “can lead to a rapid unraveling of market liquidity under certain circumstances,” the report said.
• “The concentration of hedge fund leverage has increased markedly,” it said, and funds “may have to sell large amounts of assets to meet margin calls or reduce portfolio risk during periods of market stress.”
• “Such deleveraging may have contributed to the poor liquidity conditions in financial markets in March,” the Fed said, referring to the process by which households and businesses get rid of debt by selling assets.

The Fed’s intervention has calmed things down.

The Fed jumped in to ease the strains, rolling out a series of emergency lending facilities aimed at money markets, a type of short-term business debt called commercial paper, and, more recently, corporate and municipal bonds.

• “Effectively, the ability of creditworthy households, businesses, and state and local governments to borrow, even at elevated rates, was threatened,” the Fed said, so together with the Treasury it “took a series of steps to support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and communities.”

But worries remain — namely, business debt.

Corporations went into the current crisis with huge debt loads, a vulnerability that threatens to percolate throughout the financial system as the downturn drags on.

• “Economic activity is contracting sharply, and the associated reduction in earnings and increase in credit needed to bridge the downturn will expand the debt burden and default risk of a highly leveraged business sector,” the report said.
• “Widespread downgrades of bonds to speculative-grade ratings could lead investors to accelerate the sale of downgraded bonds, possibly generating market dislocation and downward price pressures in a segment of the corporate bond market known to exhibit relatively low liquidity,” it warned.
• “Defaults on leveraged loans ticked up in February and March and are likely to continue to increase,” it said of loans to already-indebted companies.
• In a survey of market contacts included in the report, a “corporate debt/credit cycle turn” was the third-most-cited potential shock for the next 12 to 18 months — behind the coronavirus and the global policy response, and ahead of the U.S. election.

And asset prices still have room to fall.

The Fed noted that stock prices had “swung widely,” and said other assets — most notably commercial real estate — could be in for lower prices if the coronavirus lasted.

• “Asset prices remain vulnerable to significant declines should the pandemic worsen, the economic fallout prove more adverse or financial system strains re-emerge,” the Fed warned. It said declines could be “especially pronounced” in markets like commercial real estate, where prices were high relative to fundamentals even before the pandemic.
• “The severe disruptions in economic activity following the outbreak could reduce house prices by bringing down household incomes and restricting access to mortgage credit,” the report said, though a decline in supply could limit that effect.

创业与创新
在世界风险投资（VC）市场上，亚洲最快有可能在2020年超越北美。新加坡的主权财富基金淡马锡控股的子公司祥峰投资（Vertex Venture Holdings）和英国调查公司Preqin联合实施的调查显示，截至2018年底，面向亚洲的风险投资基金的投资资产达到3230亿美元，逼近面向北美的风险投资基金的3970亿美元。

两者的差额为740亿美元。但如果考虑到5年前差额达到1690亿美元，就会感受到变化程度的巨大。Preqin的亚洲业务主管断言称，“有分析认为到2020年底，面向亚洲的基金的资产额将超过面向北美的基金”。

包括面向特定国家的基金和面向广泛地区的基金在内，上述调查对风险投资基金投入大部分资金的对象地区进行了分类。结果显示，面向亚洲的基金在2010年以后每年平均增长30％，面向北美的风险投资基金的年增长率仅为9％。

在探寻尖端技术的投资者增加的背景下，北京和上海等最尖端创新基地成为对亚洲投资的中心。以亚洲为基地的10家大型风险投资基金把总部设在中国。

其中1家——纪源资本（GGV Capital）的一名管理合伙人表示，瞄准结算、融资、物流等新创新性基础设施建设的创业者正在不断涌现。其分析称，亚洲的可支配收入增加和手机普及正在给新兴技术初创企业带来有吸引力的业务机会。

上述调查显示，在世界风险投资中，美国的份额从2013年的55％下降至2018年的50％。另一方面，亚洲的很多组织向风险投资基金注资，其数量在过去5年增至2倍。针对投资资金集中于亚洲的原因，领导普华永道新加坡公司（PwC Singapore）的Venture Hub部门的Patrick Yeo表示，“投资者把目光投向有望获得更高回报的市场。期待度更高的是发展中国家，高增长的发展中国家很多集中于亚洲”。

随着估值超过100亿美元的东南亚网约车企业GrabTaxi和GoJek等强有力的新兴企业亮相，对东南亚的期待度也在明显提高。新加坡新兴媒体DealStreetAsia于10月发布的报告显示，以东南亚为对象的风险投资企业2019年1～7月获得的投资资金达到31.3亿美元，已超过2018年全年（21.2亿美元）。

德国大型软件企业思爱普（SAP）主管亚太地区业务的Scott Russell指出，“在东南亚，创业者获得政府的强有力支持”。思爱普旗下的基金正在支援7家初创企业的增长。Scott Russell表示，“我们在东南亚地区整体看到了具有创新性且充满野心的初创企业的增长”。

另一方面，美国共享办公室WeWork的运营方We Company陷入经营困难、网约车企业优步（Uber）和Lyft等的首次公开募股（IPO）状况低于预期等，令投资者感到失望的新兴企业的案例也在增加。

受这种状况的影响，祥峰投资的首席执行官（CEO）Chua Kee Lock警告称，力争通过新业务获得更高估值的创业者有必要认识到严峻的环境。

Chua Kee Lock表示，“创业者基本上来说往往高估自己公司的价值”。不过，风险投资人在提供资金之前，已开始强烈要求看到显示较高投资价值的证据。Chua Kee Lock指出，“一部分创业者变得极为现实。已注意到市场的变化，不再像以前那样要求获得1亿美元，而是开始追求更为妥当的金额”。

亚洲成为风险投资的中心舞台，但要在今后继续吸引投资资金，或许需要显示出证明企业价值的业绩和成长性。

记者：欧洲中央银行（ECB）9月启动降息，美联储也决定进一步降息。在全球货币宽松之中，正在发生竞争性货币贬值。

吉姆·罗杰斯：我并不支持现在的政策。因为货币贬值在中长期来说推动国家经济增长的情况一次也没有。一些国家还出现了负利率，史无前例的事情不断发生。美国也在雷曼危机后的2011年债务大幅增加。为了抑制经济减速，世界各国的央行不断印刷纸币，但谁来偿还膨胀的债务呢？这些政策应尽快停止。

著名投资家吉姆·罗杰斯
　
记者：您如何看待日本经济的现状？

吉姆·罗杰斯：人口正在减少，但政府维持基础设施投资，债务每天都在增加，我对此感到不安。将来的人口和债务额将出现多么悲惨的状况，通过简单的加减法即可得知。日本是我最喜欢的国家之一，也很尊敬，但令人遗憾的是，这样下去没有未来。为了削减债务，本应减少财政支出，但政府却预定实施消费增税。日本不是一个好的投资对象。我自日本3·11大地震之前一直在买日本股票，但2018年秋季已全部清仓。

近年来金融科技的发展极大地改变了普惠金融的生态，但中国金融学会会长、中国人民银行原行长周小川周六称，普惠金融有其自身规律，如财务可持续性、重视风控和监管建设，这些不会轻易因新科技的出现而改变。

周小川在2019中国普惠金融国际论坛上发言并指出，当前中国的普惠金融在基础设施、降低风险的手段等方面存在挑战，同时一些机构受到资本市场融资的诱惑而“走偏”，都需要市场予以关注。

“风控和监管是（普惠金融）至关重要的环节，”他称，“一些人打着普惠金融的幌子，他们可能更注重一些其他目标，但往往因为风控出了问题，以及监管没太顾得上，出了不少问题。”

他还指出，一些新型科技产业在积极从事普惠金融的同时“忽悠”得比较厉害，只讲有利的方面，但并不充分重视风险，也有一定的问题。

同时，金融机构的财务可持续性也十分重要，如果没有强健的财务，没有不断增长的抗风险能力，过一段时间就会出现问题。因此，相关机构应该在财务方面提供更多的保障，特别是在财务制度上，在会计准则以及会计准则执行上做的更好。

“P2P网贷中间还是有一些很好的新生事物，动机也是为了搞普惠金融，但有些方面违背了财务健康、可持续性和监管方面的基本规则，因此也出现大面积的问题。”他称。

周小川并指出，虽然中国已经在普惠金融领域取得不少成效，但也存在一些挑战。一方面，需要完善普惠金融相关基础设施，而基础设施并不只限于征信，还包括交易平台、资产的登记托管、交易的记录、支付系统支付清算等。

同时，由于金融服务是建立在信息基础之上的，专注于普惠金融的机构要清楚自身的信息优势。

此外，在降低风险方面，中国做的还是不够。

“因为我们的土地还是集体所有，宅基地到目前为止还不是那么容易就可以转让，因此在抵押品方面遇到的困难会比很多其他国家多，”周小川称，“这种情况下，如何降低风险，使普惠金融能够扩大面积，同时有合理的价格。”

他并强调，在这些挑战之外也要防止走偏。由于存在着资本市场融资的诱惑和IPO的诱惑，一些金融机构都受到这种思潮的影响，有一些急功近利的做法，一些金融机构，在有些事情上作出了错误的选择，也吸取了惨痛的教训。

Australia’s big four banks say they would have to reduce their businesses in New Zealand or look at selling them off entirely if the country pushes ahead with plans to increase the amount of capital banks must hold.

The warnings were among more than 160 submissions received by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand for its proposal to raise top banks’ capital ratio to 16 per cent, thereby reducing risks in case of a major financial shock.

The submissions were made public by the regulator yesterday.

Australia’s ‘Big Four’ banks are facing the possibility of business reductions in New Zealand amid a plan to increase the required capital they need to operate in the country. (AAP)
New Zealand’s biggest lender, ANZ, said capital requirement of this size would require the bank to “review, and reconsider the size, nature and operations of the New Zealand business.”

In his submission, ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott asked RBNZ to reconsider the impact implementing the proposal would have, both in terms of quantum and form.

ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, NAB and Westpac dominate the New Zealand banking sector and would be most affected by these new regulations.

RBNZ’s proposal would require the country’s ‘Big Four’ banks to collectively raise $NZ20 billion ($A19.2 billion) over the next five years.

John Key, former New Zealand prime minister and chairman of the New Zealand unit of ANZ, said in his feedback that in the long run the capital proposals would cost around 20 per cent of New Zealand’s GDP in present value terms – far higher than the Reserve Bank’s four-to-12 per cent estimate.

Key is under pressure to step down over alleged governance failures at the local ANZ unit, which led to the abrupt departure of boss David Hisco.

“If the Australian banks are indeed faced with a significant fall in the returns on equity from their New Zealand banking subsidiaries, they will face a number of choices including whether to reduce the size of the business, demerge, or sell,” Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer said in his submission.

A number of submissions also noted that the proposals could disproportionately affect particular sectors of the economy, such as the agricultural sector and small businesses.

NAB said banks would likely limit credit availability to less profitable sectors of the economy such as farming and dairy.

RBNZ said cautious reaction from some was expected, but many, particularly the general public, supported higher capital requirements for banks to reduce risks in the event of any major shock.

“We think the costs of doing so are outweighed by the benefits – someone’s cost is for society’s broader benefit,” RBNZ Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand said in a statement accompanying the summary of submissions.

The RBNZ is reviewing submissions and is due to announce its decision in November.

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Kementerian Keuangan menyoroti pengelolaan dana pensiun di Indonesia yang masih belum optimal.

Secara umum, total dana kelolaan program pensiun saat ini relatif tinggi. Per Desember 2018, total dana pensiun tercatat mencapai Rp850,78 triliun dengan BPJS Ketenagakerjaan mendominasi sebesar Rp319,33 triliun.

Meski aset program pensiun nasinal meningkat, dana pensiun masih belum berperan besar dalam pengembangan sektor keuangan.

Per Desember 2018, total dana pensiun hanya sekitar 5,63% dari PDB. Angka tersebut relatif kecil apabila dibandingkan dengan negara lain. Hal ini mengindikasikan dana pensiun di Indonesia masih belum dikelola secara optimal.

Dalam ‘Tinjauan Ekonomi, Keuangan, dan Fiskal Edisi III/2019’ yang diterbitkan oleh BKF, disebutkan bahwa sebagian besar aset dana pensiun di Indonesia diinvestasikan pada instrumen berjangka pendek.

Hal ini tidak sesuai dengan karakteristik program pensiun yang memiliki liabilitas jangka panjang sehingga menimbulkan asset-liability mismatch. Akibatnya, aset dana pensiun yang ada tidak dapat dikelola secara optimal.

Penyebab timbulnya asset-liability mismatch antara lain, pertama, adanya pengukuran kinerja manajemen pengelolaan dana yang dilakukan hanya berdasarkan kinerja satu tahun.

Hal tersebut membuat pengelola dana pensiun cenderung menempatkan aset pada instrumen investasi bertenor pendek dengan tingkat volatilitas dan imbal yang kecil.

“Kondisi ini berbeda dengan praktik di beberapa negara lain seperti Malaysia, Australia, dan Kanada di mana pengukuran kinerja tahunan manajemen dilakukan berdasarkan rata-rata kinerja 3 hingga 5 tahun terakhir,” ujar dokumen yang dikutip Bisnis pada Sabtu (12/10/2019).

Penyebab kedua ialah penarikan dana pensiun dilakukan relatif dini sebelum masuknya usia pensiun, terutama pada program jaminan hari tua (JHT) BPJS Kesehatan.

Program dengan aset kelolaan sebesar Rp278,9 triliun per Desember 2018 tersebut tidak dapat tumbuh optimal akibat penarikan tersebut dan karena memang secara aturan dana JHT dapat ditarik kapan saja, termasuk sesaat setelah berhenti bekerja.

Ketiga, adanya Peraturan OJK yang mewajibkan industri keuangan non-bank utnuk mengalokasikan aset kepada Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dalam batas waktu tertentu tanpa mempertimbangkan karakter dan durasi liabilitas program juga berakibat pada berkurangnya ruang bagi surat berharga korporasi dan instrumen investasi lain untuk berkembang.

Keempat atau terakhir, literasi investasi di masyarakat baik peserta, pengelola, dan regulator masih relatif rendah.

BKF menerangkan bahwa prinsip utama dari penentuang strategi investasi atas aset program pensium sangat ditentukan oleh profil liabilitasnya.

Prinsip ini mash belum dipahami secara benar oleh masyarakat. Masyarakat pun hingga saat ini masih familiar kepada instrumen lama yakni tabungan, deposito, dan SBN. tetapi kurang memahami saham dan reksa dana.

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – PT Bank DBS Indonesia mendorong peran tenaga kerja berusia muda untuk mengisi posisi strategis.

Saat ini 49% posisi vice president (VP) di bank tersebut diisi oleh generasi milenial dan 18% posisi asisstant vice president (AVP) diisi oleh generasi yang lahir pada rentang 1981 hingga 1994 tersebut.

Chief Executive Officer of DBS Bank Piyush Gupta mengatakan bahwa perbankan perlu menata kembali industrinya seiring dengan perkembangan zaman. “Atau perbankan akan musnah,” katanya dalam keterangan resmi yang diterima Bisnis Sabtu (12/10/2019).

Saat ini DBS Indonesia secara aktif melakukan penyesuaian sumber daya manusia. Bank berupaya menyeimbangkan tenaga kerja junior dan senior pada posisi strategis untuk mencapai transformasi perbankan.

Saat ini generasi baby boomers tersisa 1% dari total tenaga kerja, gen X sebanyak 31%, gen Y 67%, dan gen Z 1%.

Managing Director Head of Digital Banking DBS Indonesia Leonardo Koesmanto mengatakan bahwa tenaga kerja junior dan senior memiliki kesempatan yang sama untuk menduduki posisi strategis. Hal itu dilakukan seiring dengan perkembangan zaman yang menuntut bank bertransformasi.

Selain itu, seiring dengan perkembangan teknologi, DBS Group juga memanfaatkan teknologi dalam proses perekrutan tenaga kerja. Perusahaan menggunakan Jobs Intelligence Maestro (JIM) yang merupakan perekrutan virtual yang menggunakan tenaga kecerdasan buatan.

“Dalam proses perekrutan, DBS Group juga menerapkan sistem Hack2Hire, di mana DBS Group telah berhasil merekrut 500 digital marketer, system engineers, data scientists dan full stack developer,” tambah Leonardo.

Tak hanya itu, untuk menjaga semangat kerja generasi milenial, DBS Group mengadopsi budaya perusahaan rintisan. Hal ini diterapkan melalui konsep open workspace yang memungkinkan karyawan saling berinteraksi dengan bebas.

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. akan fokus mengoptimalkan kinerja perseroan untuk menjaga dan meningkatkan nilai saham ke depannya.

Pernyataan itu disampaikan Direktur Treasury Internasional BNI Bob Tyasika Ananta menanggapi fluktuasi harga saham BBNI sejak awal 2019. Menurutnya, ada banyak faktor yang menyebabkan naik-turunnya harga saham perseroan sejak awal tahun.

Baca juga: BNI Gandeng Tekfin Pasarkan KTA
“Menurut saya banyak faktor yang memengaruhi keputusan investor dalam melakukan investasi portfolionya, antara lain kondisi makro yang belum menunjukkan perkembangan yang membaik antara lain perang dagang, proyeksi pertumbuhan global yang melemah, harga komoditas yang tertekan,” ujar Bob kepada Bisnis, Jumat (11/10/2019).

Berdasarkan penelusuran, harga saham BNI sejak awal tahun mengalami tren pelemahan. Pada penutupan indeks pelan lalu, harga saham BNI berada di angka Rp6.975 per lembar saham atau melemah Rp1.750 sejak awal 2019.

Baca juga: BNI Proyeksi Kredit Kuartal III/2019 Masih Tinggi
Pada perdagangan sepekan lalu, nilai saham BBNI mengalami tren penguatan dari Rp6.925 menjadi Rp6.975. Menurut Bob, perseroan akan menguatkan kolaborasi dengan analis untuk memperbaiki nilai saham BNI ke depannya.

“Kolaborasi dengan analis global juga merupakan salah satu faktor yang krusial agar investor global juga mendapatkan gambaran independen terkait dengan BBNI maupun faktor eksternal,” katanya.

Baca juga: Bisnis Remitansi BNI Tumbuh 15,4 Persen Selama September 2019
Sepanjang lima tahun pemerintahan Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla, valuasi atau harga saham BNI tak bisa dikatakan selalu ada dalam tren positif atau negatif. Nilai lembaran saham bank pelat merah ini selalu naik-turun.

Harga saham BBNI pernah mencapai puncaknya pada 29 Desember 2017. Saat itu, nilai per lembar saham bank ini mencapai Rp9.900. Sementara harga terendah pernah terjadi pada 25 September 2015 kala per lembar saham perseroan dihargai Rp4.110.

Bob yakin Pada periode kedua pemerintahan Jokowi perbaikan kondisi makro perekonomian akan terjadi. Hal ini bisa menjadi pemicu membaiknya harga saham emiten perbankan khusus BBNI.

“Kami harus lihat dulu periode kedua, sementara pembangunan infrastruktur sendiri gapnya masih banyak, kebutuhan masih besar, apalagi kalau jadi ibu kota pindah kan butuh lagi pembiayaan yang tak kecil,” ujarnya.