作者: bankr

  • How Costco gained a cult following — by breaking every rule of retail

    Costco has found immense success by prioritizing the interests of its customers and employees over those of its shareholders.

    On first impression, Costco makes no sense.

    It is a place where you can buy, in the course of one trip, a 27-pound bucket of mac and cheese, a patio table, a wedding dress, a casket, a handle of gin, a tank of gas, a passport photo, a sheepskin rug, a chicken coop, prescription medications, life insurance, a $1.50 hotdog, and a $250,000 diamond ring.

    Items sit on wooden pallets in dark, unmarked aisles. Brand selection is limited. And you pay a $60 annual membership fee just to get in the door.

    The end goal: To cut the “fat” out of traditional retail and pass on the savings to loyal customers and employees.

    This philosophy often anguishes Costco’s shareholders — but it has also earned the company a cult following around the world. At a time when brick-and-mortar retail is crumbling at the feet of e-commerce, Costco has experienced steady growth.

    How did this nondescript chain of warehouses find success?

    A brief history of Costco

    In 1954, an attorney named Sol Price inherited a vacant airport hangar in San Diego.

    He raised $50k in capital, stocked up on wholesale jewelry, furniture, and liquor, and launched Fedmart, a warehouse-style store where government employees could pay a $2 membership fee to access an assortment of deals.

    By the time Sol sold Fedmart in 1975, he’d grown it into a $350m-per-year, 40-location chain — and ushered in a new age of “membership club” retail.

    But Sol wasn’t done. The following year, he launched Price Club, a one-stop shop that offered everything from car tires to dishwashers at heavily discounted prices. Price Club went against the common grain of business school textbooks: It didn’t advertise. Its stores were ugly and bare-bones. And it refused to gratuitously mark up items.

    Among Sol’s protégés was a young whippersnapper named James (Jim) Sinegal.

    Sinegal began his career in retail as a 19-year-old bagger at Fedmart and, over two decades, worked his way up to the company’s EVP of merchandising. He continued on to Price Club — and by the early ‘80s, he was well-steeped in Sol’s strategies and ready to branch out on his own.

    In September of 1983, Sinegal and his pal Jeff Brotman launched the first Costco in Seattle, a giant retail warehouse modeled on Sol’s unique principles.

    By 1993, Costco was such a looming threat that Price Club (its inspiration) agreed to a merger. The resulting company, PriceCostco, was short lived: Four years later, it was rebranded simply as ‘Costco,’ and Sinegal assumed the throne.

    Today, Costco is one of the world’s largest retailers, boasting 770+ locations and 245,000 employees. Last year, it had more than $140B in sales.

    But unlike many of its counterparts on Fortune’s Global 500 list, Costco has risen to the top by flying in the face of traditional wisdom.

    1. It refuses to boost markups

    “If [saving the customer money] doesn’t turn you on,” Sinegal, who retired as CEO in 2012, once said, “then you’re in the wrong business.”

    Surely enough, Costco’s immense buying power allows it to finagle deep discount deals with vendors, and the savings are always passed down to its shoppers.

    Costco has stated in the past that it caps its markups at 14% for brand-name items, and 15% for its in-house Kirkland brands — even wine, which is notorious for its 200% to 300% markups elsewhere.

    But according to the company’s 2018 annual report, the average item in the store is only marked up 11%, compared to the 25%-50% often seen in retail.

    That means that if Costco pays $100 wholesale for, say, a pound of Wagyu beef, it sells it to you for a mere $111. Because Costco buys in such large volumes, its purchase price is often lower than other retailers to begin with; add in the company’s reduced markups, and you’ve got yourself a much cheaper piece of meat.

    In fact, Costco’s prices are so low that it barely breaks even on its merchandise sales. And despite pressure from investors over the years, it has refused to boost its markup.

    Not long ago, Costco was selling Calvin Klein jeans for $29 a pop — already $20 less than almost anywhere else — when a change in its purchasing deal meant Costco could get them for even less from the vendor. Instead of keeping the extra profit from the improved deal, it lowered the jeans’ price to $22.

    “Many retailers look at an item and say, ‘I’m selling this for $10; how can I sell it for $11?’ We look at it and say, ‘How can we get it to $9?’ And then, ‘How can we get it to $8?’” Sinegal later said. “It is contrary to the thinking of a retailer, which is to see how much more profit you can get out of it. But once you start doing that, it’s like heroin.”

    So, how does Costco make its money?

    2. It charges people to enter its stores

    Forty years ago, most retailers would’ve considered it crazy to charge customers money for the right to wander through their doors and buy stuff.

    Yet, Costco’s members gladly pay annual fees ($60 for “Gold Star” and $120 for “Executive”) because they believe that having access to the chain’s economies of scale and bulk quantities justifies the upfront cost.

    As of 2018, 51,600,000people pay Costco membership fees, good for $3.14B in annual revenue. More impressively, the renewal rate is a whopping 90%.

    Unlike other discount chain customers, the majority of these cardholders are largely affluent ($100k+ income) and college-educated. They’re also, as it turns out, extremely cultish in their devotion to the wholesaler: There are Costco blogs, Costco forums, and Costco Facebook groups with thousands of followers.

    “I love spreading the word of Costco to anyone who will listen,” writes one fan, who goes by ‘The Costco Connoisseur.’ “I have been to over 179 Costco Warehouses across 33 states and 5 different countries.”

    Retail experts attribute this rabid devotion to the membership card, and the shared appreciation of frugality that it signifies.

    “There is a certain exclusivity in the Costo card that makes you a part of a tribe,” says Pam Danziger, of Unity Marketing. “This built-in brand loyalty has carried them very far.”

    Another byproduct of charging shoppers a fee upfront is that it preempts them to defeat the sunken cost fallacy: Since they’re out $60 before even setting foot in the store, they feel they have to indulge in as many deals as possible to make up for it.

    At Costco, this often means buying products in much larger volumes.

    3. It stocks massive volumes of few products

    Prevailing retail wisdom tells us that excess choice is good — that shoppers want to walk down the chip aisle and be able to pick from 100 varieties and brands. Costco, on the other hand, acts as a bulk curator for its customers.

    The average warehouse stocks just 3,700 SKUs at any given time, less than 1/10th of most supermarkets’ 40,000 to 50,000 items, and not much more than the average corner store. Often, Costco provides only one or two brands in a given category.

    “They know their customers very well,” says Danziger, “and this enables them to limit choices to things their customers are most likely to want.”

    In doing so, Costco solves the paradox of choice — a conundrum consumers encounter when an abundance of options causes stress and delays decision-making.

    There is also an economic incentive to stocking fewer items: With less selection, there is less labor. In retail, every hand that touches an item (stocking, organizing, rearranging) costs money. Costco’s supply chain is rigged to minimize contact: Items are removed from trucks and driven straight to the aisles on forklifts, where they sit in giant pallets, waiting to be plucked by shoppers.

    But less, of course, is often more.

    While Costco stocks less, it sells items in titanic quantities. If you want eggs, expect a 90 pack. Waffles? 60 to a box. Mayonnaise? 4-pound tub. And good luck finding a single bag of Hot Cheetos: They only come in packs of 64.

    This is because the company understands that it makes more financial sense for a shopper to spend $400 once per month than $100 in 4 separate trips: It saves customers time, but also reduces Costco’s expended resources.

    4. It reengineers products to be cheaper

    Because Costco stocks limited inventory in massive amounts, it is extremely fickle about the vendors it chooses to work with.

    When Costco comes across a product it likes, it often spends months working closely with the vendor and its factories to both reduce the price of an item and amp up its quality. 

    In the 2012 CNBC doc “Costco Craze,” a Costco buyer related one tale about a toy he found that retailed for $100. The company had the option of buying the unit for $50 wholesale and selling it for around $60 — but this wasn’t good enough.

    Over a period of months, Costco ended up working with the vendor and its factory to redesign the toy from the ground up, analyzing every part of the process for ways to cut costs. In the end, Costco got the vendor to reduce the price by 50%, and sold it for $30.

    The profit margin Costco made from the toy at $30 was the same it would’ve made at $60: The time and resources the company invested to lower the price were strictly for the benefit of their shoppers.

    In another instance, reengineering a container of cashews from a circle to a square shape allowed Costco to stack more items in a single truck, reducing the number of shipments by 24,000 pallets per year. For shoppers, this meant cheaper nuts.

    But Costco’s most important initiative has nothing to do with the products it sells.

    5. It realizes the economic incentive for treating employees well

    Retail workers are among America’s lowest-paid employees, earning an average of around $10 per hour. They rarely get full benefits, and their employers view them as expendable (turnover rates are as high as 65%).

    But Costco realizes that it is more cost effective to retain happy employees and — brace yourself — actually pay them a livable wage, than it is to churn and burn. 

    The average pay among its 245,000 workers (143,000 full-time, 102,000 part-time) works out to $21 per hour, double the national retail average and nearly 2x Walmart’s going rate. Moreover, 88% of Costco workers receive company-sponsored health insurance.

    This mentality that has earned the company some of the highest retention rates in the industry — and many employees stay at Costco for more than a decade.

    “I don’t see what’s wrong with an employee earning enough to be able to buy a house or have a health plan for the family,” Sinegal once told the Los Angeles Times

    Investors, however, haven’t always seen it that way.

    6. It values its customers over its shareholders

    CEOs of public companies often blame unpopular decisions — price hikes, layoffs, cutting corners — on their “responsibility to maximize shareholder value.”

    In the last 30 years, the percentage of corporate profits going to stockholders has increased from 50% to 86%, resulting in fewer deals for customers and less money for employees. This investor-first mentality has, in many ways, harmed American industry.

    Since the day Costco went public in December of 1985, investors have complained that the company has been “too generous” with its customers and employees. They’ve called for higher markups on goods, steeper prices, and reduced benefits for workers.

    But Costco has always insisted that their policies aren’t just altruistic — they’re good for business: By sticking to their principles, stock has gone up 387% since 2000.

    “On Wall Street, they’re in the business of making money between now and next Thursday,” Sinegal told the New York Times in 2005. “We can’t take that view. We want to build a company that will still be here 50 years from now.”

    In other words, about twice as long as the shelf life on its 27-pound tubs of mac and cheese.

  • New investments fell to a 15-year low in the midst of slowdown, says report

    • A CARE Ratings report says that new investments in India fell to a 15-year low in the first half of FY20.
    • The total new investment in H1 FY20 stood at ₹1.9 lakh crore.
    • Investments in manufacturing, construction, real estate and irrigation have increased but those in mining, electricity have taken a hit.

    The Indian economy is in a dismal state and now a CARE ratings report shows that new investments in India fell to a 15-year low in the first half of FY20.

    The total new investment in H1 FY20 stood at ₹1.9 lakh crore. During the same period in the previous year, as much as ₹6.1 lakh crore were pumped into the economy.

    According to the report, investments in manufacturing, construction, real estate and irrigation have increased but those into mining and electricity have taken a hit.

    “The investment rate has declined consistently over the years and remained range bound between 28%-29% of GDP in the past 4 years. This has been a detrimental factor for the overall economic growth of the country,” said the report.

    Odisha had the highest share of new investments, and has overtaken Maharashtra.

    Investments are also slowing down because of the rising number of stalled projects. In FY19, 53% of government owned projects were stalled. However, in FY20, half of the stalled projects are privately owned. Most of the stalled projects were seen in the services sector, followed by electricity and manufacturing.

    The report stated that the reason for stalled projects has been lack of non- environmental clearances and lack of funds.

  • 英杰华决定保留新中保险业务

    保险业者英杰华集团(Aviva PLC)周一表示,公司决定保留在新加坡和中国的业务,但对香港、越南和印度尼西亚业务战略选项的评估仍在继续。

    新加坡是它的一大市场,它在中国有合资企业。

    这家富时100指数成份股公司说,它已决定保留该公司的新加坡业务。

    它之前对新加坡业务进行了一项全面评估,包括寻找买家,结论是保留该业务将实现股东的最佳价值。

    它指出,它考虑到中国的市场规模、与合作伙伴的良好关系以及高增长前景,因此决定保留中国的合资企业中英人寿(Aviva-COFCO)。

    它表示,公司在继续与香港、越南和印尼的合作伙伴探讨这些地区和国家业务的各种选项。

  • 少子化高龄化若持续 日本896县市可能消失

    人口持续减少的最终结果是城市消亡。这个情况已在人口持续老化的日本出现。阻止城市消失,成了日本各地方政府必须严肃思考的问题。日本政府对策是先从吸引年轻人组织家庭开始,翻新公屋与社区、改善居住环境等措施,成为重中之重。

    占地763.2平方公里的日本北海道夕张市(Yubari)于上世纪60年代是日本的矿业重镇,当时居住人口达11万。自从煤矿业没落后,人口逐渐流失,2000年的统计显示不足1万人;2007年,该市政府因人口凋零和产业外移导致财政不胜负荷而宣布破产,成了日本首个“城市消亡”案例。

    日本放送协会(NHK)近期纪录片《缩小日本带来的冲击》介绍了夕张市的现况:破产10多年后,夕张市依然深陷财政困境,年税收不到8亿日元(1004万新元),负债高达26亿日元,靠削减行政开支度日。

    夕张市公共福利部长6月发出文告说:“原本的260名公务员一次过减至55人,留下的公务员都将减薪。人手短缺导致市内的公共服务质量每况愈下,但为了偿还债务又不得不调高税金。夕张市居民要比日本其他城市缴付更高的居民税,例如汽车税金就比其他地方高出1.5倍。久而久之,再也没人愿意在此居住;这是一个恶性循环,人口仍会继续减少……”

    近期前往夕张的日本游人纷纷在网上留言,对夕张败落的景象感到难过。

    年轻网民上载的照片包括空置的民宅、校园与教室。该市原有七所小学和四所中学,如今已全部关闭。

    他们如此描述:走入夕张,犹如一次“废墟之旅”。从早到晚,路上无车无人,令人联想:这会不会是人口不断萎缩的日本40年后的样子?

    2014年调查报告敲响人口警钟

    夕张的命运说明了一个事实:人口减少关系城市存亡,更关乎国家前途,绝对不容忽视。

    日本政府智囊团2014年发布《可能消失的日本城市》调查报告,由时任总务部长增田宽率领调研。这份研究人口减少导致城市消失的调查结论是:“40年后,全日本1799个城市中可能有896个会消失”,信息发布后对日本社会乃至国家的存亡拉响了警报。

    调查是以日本女性平均生育率1.4、地方人口,以及20岁至39岁处于生育期女性人数等因素为依据,估算出上述结果。

    专家指出,一个地区若流失了生育期女性人口达三成,40年后当地人口会减少一半。依此推算,日本全国1799个城市中有896个是“可能消失的城市”,另外523个城市的人口已经少于1万人,属于“濒临消失”。

    目前,处境最危险的是青森县,其次是岛根县。在岛根县,65岁以上人口多达七成,84个村子,每村不到10户,被列为“人口危机部落群”。

    这份“可能消失的日本城市”名单已经提交日本国会,作为政府应对人口课题的重要参考。各大政府部门也依据这份调查,评估少子化与高龄化对未来社会可能造成的冲击。

    日本劳动部预测,到了2025年,全国老人护理领域的劳动力缺口将达到37万人;国土交通部预测,到2033年,全国可能有三成空置房屋;财政部预测,到了2065年,日本每一名劳动者要担负1.3名老人的社保开销。

    少子化是一场灾难  

    少子化和人口高龄化是造成城市消失的主要原因。

    2016年,日本新生宝宝有97万个,首次少于100万个,之后更逐年创新低。日本受困于高龄化和少子化的问题已久,一直都无法找到解决之道。去年,日本的生育率不仅没回升,有四个城市的新生儿记录为零。

    联合国《世界人口展望》数据显示,世界人口到了2050年将从目前的76亿人增至98亿人,2100年可达112亿人。日本人口趋势与世界背道而驰,预估2053年人口将从目前的1亿2625万首次跌破亿,并将继续减至8000多万人。日本在世界人口排名榜上也将从第11位跌至第17位。

    美国高盛根据人口因素对生产力的影响,评估了日本的经济前景。报告的结论是:若生育率无法提高至2.06,(日本)国内生产总值(GDP)将大降。到了2050年,日本的GDP或许会被印度、巴西和印度尼西亚等新兴经济体超越,从目前的世界第三大经济体降至第八。

    学者:人口须从都市集中转向地方分散型

    安倍政府根据《可能消失的日本城市》调查报告,拟定了《少子化对策大纲》,其中包括设下生育率目标由目前的1.4提升至1.8。为了鼓励民众多生养,政府承诺多管齐下给予帮助,包括改善居住环境和建设更多育儿园等。

    除了政府,日本各界也纷纷探讨有关课题,寻找对策。

    京都大学几年前设立了“心的未来研究中心”,与企业界联手研究如何以人工智能保障2050年后的经济持续发展。他们至今已进行了100多个模拟实验。

    负责研究任务的广井良典教授说:“实验告诉我们,日本现在处于人口政策的重要分水岭,人口分布必须从都市集中型转向地方分散型。

    “日本从明治时代开始,为了发展工业化经济,实施了都市集中型政策。昭和时代延续了这一路线,到了平成时代(1990年),随着人口减少和高龄化加速,日本经济陷入长期低迷,新一代也因对经济前景感到不安而不愿传宗接代。”

    广井分析,日本人口结构最大危机是14岁以下人口一直处于递减状态,15岁至64岁的劳动力人口仅占六成。到了2025年,婴儿潮时代出生的大部分人将进入75岁高龄层,人口递减将加速。

    广井认为,日本必须摒弃都市集中型人口政策,转向地方分散型发展,将人口分布朝向不同区域疏导,并重视地方发展,缩小城乡经济差距。日本今年刚迈入令和时代,新时代的使命便是须迫切为人口逐减的社会谋出路。

     丰岛区去年生育率40年来首增长

    很多人都以为,日本可能消失的城市一定都是远离大都会的穷乡僻壤,首都和周围地区不会上榜。其实不然,危险名单上的896个城镇中,属于东京都内23区的丰岛区赫然在列。

    丰岛区的池袋(Ikebukuro)是一个日夜人潮汹涌的城市核心商区,包括东京环线山手线在内的八条铁路线在此交汇,每天流动人口约270万人次,周围全是著名百货商店,是东京都三大区之一。

    对于丰岛区被列入“可能消失的城市”名单,该区行政机构一职员说:“当时我们都觉得这个报告有问题,认为它危言耸听,形势严峻的应该是地方城市,怎么会是丰岛区这样一个东京大都会呢?

    “冷静后仔细想想,日本全国人口减少,丰岛区实际上也面对严重的生育率下降问题。这个报告把我们从梦中唤醒。”

    其实,池袋人潮不断看似繁华,但熙来攘往的是流动人口,并非区内居民。

    调查也显示,丰岛区很多女性在婚后就搬离,原因是周遭环境不适合育儿。丰岛区生育率为0.99,远低于日本全国平均生育率1.2。

    此外,丰岛区单身居民多,其中超过50岁更占了人口的四成。这些居民逐渐老去,区内人口青黄不接,人口危机持续加深。

    丰岛区被列入“黑名单”后,区当局加紧寻求对策,除了设立了“持续发展都市推动本部”,还创立了名为“创建女性温和街道”的部门,力求提升居住环境,吸引年轻人和新婚家庭入住。

    丰岛区环境改造工程负责人宫田麻子曾在微软任职,她受访时说:“要让人口回升,必须创造改善生育的条件,譬如在打造居住环境时融入女性观点……丰岛区要创设既适合老幼,又能接纳外国居民的多元化社会。”

    宫田麻子主导改革 首先整修公厕

    宫田的第一个改革计划是整修公园,从最不起眼的公厕着手。她动员区内艺术工作者为公厕外墙和内壁设计图案。

    起初,很多人都不理解她的用意,后来公园绿树成荫,公厕外墙变成五彩缤纷的画廊,幼儿班老师经常带孩子们到公园嬉戏,一片朝气蓬勃。

    宫本说:“美化厕所能让公园更具亲和力,既方便居民,还可成为举办活动的社交场所。要建设可持续发展的地区,必须加强人的交流。”

    日本公厕向来为外国游客称道,丰岛区的艺术公厕更令人激赏。该区计划配合明年东京奥运,将“艺术公厕”工程扩大到区内所有133个公厕,甚至考虑在公厕周围办画展,以吸引游客,激活社区。

    配合环境改造 商家增添惠民设施

    丰岛区行政部门的最终目标是增加定居人口,确保区内持续发展,争取商界的支持与配合是手段之一。

    丰岛区行政部门与多个商家缔结伙伴协定,共同推动区内发展,推出照顾小家庭的活动。例如,百货公司重建时考虑了居民的需求,增添惠民设施,如在顶楼设儿童游乐场。

    丰岛区的努力奏效了。这个被列入“可能消失城市”名单的地区,近期被选为“职业夫妇最温暖宜居地”。去年7月,丰岛区人口终于摆脱了下滑的趋势,相隔40年来首次出现增长。

    翻新公屋改善居住环境 一些地方宜居对策见功效

    东京丰岛区四年内成功扭转劣势,说明要缓和高龄化与少子化的趋势与冲击,改变居住环境至关重要。日本政府因此把改革公共住屋,列为人口政策大纲重点。

    在日本,公共住屋称为“公共团地”,意为“集体住屋”。1950年代,日本大力发展工业,为了将劳动人口汇聚到各工业区,当局广建单身宿舍型公屋,出租给打工群体。1960年代至1970年代,当局在都市内外建设适合家庭居住、类似新加坡组屋的公屋,通过抽签,分租给还无能力买房的新婚夫妇。当年这些住房都有最新设施,设计格局也符合小家庭需要,因此深受欢迎。直至人口扩张、经济起飞的1980年代,当局在全日本总共建设了2903个公屋区。

    翻新公屋鼓励年轻人成家

    当社会的人口趋向老化后,空置的公屋单位日益增多。许多地区如今为了吸引年轻人入住,采取了翻新和改良老房的措施,这不但解决了年轻人的住房问题,也鼓励他们组织家庭、生儿育女。

    日本公共住房是由都市再生机构(UR)管理,该机构官员告诉《联合早报》:“这些公共住宅虽然屋龄已高,但设计和管理都到位。

    “我们目前积极翻新老屋,好吸引新一代入住。我们以不同的主题进行改造,希望让新一代有更高的生活质量。”

    据该机构透露,位于东京立川市的柏町公共住屋在40年前建成,当局目前正引进“物联网”设施,翻新老屋,以吸引年轻人入住。翻新后的公屋将拥有电器遥控装置和最新式家电,例如会自动折叠衣服的洗衣机等,为须照顾家庭的职业女性提供方便。

    在神奈川县,一组建设于1965年的公屋进行了大规模的环境改造工程,把停车场改建为有山坡的天然花园,还有小型农园和儿童游乐场,居住环境大幅改善,现在成了许多小家庭竞相争取入住的热门公屋,八成居民年龄未满30岁。

    埼玉县则通过与该县四所大学合作,将武里的公屋分租给年轻人。大学动员学生积极参与社区活动,学生成了社区的生力军,解决了地区因人口老化而缺乏人力的问题。

  • 阿里巴巴香港发股受欢迎 散户部分吸引约20万人申请

    港媒报道说,中国电商巨头阿里巴巴集团香港股票发行,面向散户投资者发行的部分,吸引了约20万名投资者申请。

    据《香港经济日报》报道,按认购人数衡量,这将使阿里巴巴成为今年以来最受欢迎的上市交易。报道未说明消息来源。

    不过,阿里新股热卖,散户投资者数量虽比近期另一受追捧的新股中手游的9万人多出逾一倍,却少于平安好医生和阅文集团的首次公开募股交易。

    《明报》说,腾讯旗下阅文集团2017年上市时适逢新经济股热潮,获逾40万人认购,并创下冻资逾5200亿港元(907亿新元)历来次高纪录。同年上市的汽车交易平台易鑫集团及游戏装置公司雷蛇也都比现在的阿里更受欢迎,前者认购人数达30万。不过从去年起,散户热情似减退,较热卖的仅有去年5月上市的平安好医生,有22万人认购。

    阿里巴巴早前宣布招股价为176港元,公开发售部分超购约40倍,将于本月26日挂牌交易。

  • 世卫:全球逾八成青少年体能活动不足

    世界卫生组织(WHO)领导的一项新研究表明,全球超过八成青少年体能活动不足,女生尤甚,这将影响青少年的健康。

    这项研究已发表在英国《柳叶刀·儿童与青少年健康》杂志上。研究人员追踪了全球146个国家和地区、160万名11岁至17岁在校生2001年到2016年的体能活动情况。

    研究结果发现,2016年全球81%的在校青少年未达到世卫组织相关建议,即每天至少完成一小时中高强度的体能活动。如按性别区分,85%的女生和78%的男生没有“达标”。

    积极开展体能活动将给青少年的身心发育带来诸多裨益,研究人员建议各国采取紧急政策行动,增加青少年的身体活动量。

    研究作者之一、世卫组织专家布尔敦促各国尽快出台或改进有关法规,配置相关资源,从教育、城市规划、道路安全、运动和娱乐场地配备等多领域为青少年增加体能活动提供条件,如营造安全环境以便青少年步行或骑车上学等。

    研究还显示,2001年至2016年间,男生体能活动不足比例从80%降至78%,而女生这一比例保持在85%左右。参与研究的世卫组织专家赖利说,女生不如男生活跃的趋势令人担忧,应创造更多机会满足女生的需求和兴趣,以吸引和维持她们在青春期和成年期投入体能活动。

  • China’s ageing population prompts plan to deal with looming silver shock

    • Five-point strategy unveiled in first policy paper aimed at the most daunting social and political challenge of coming decades
    • Estimates say over-60s will make up one third of the population by 2050

    China has outlined a five-point strategy for managing its ageing population in its first policy paper to tackle the country’s most daunting social and political challenges of the coming decades.

    The paper, jointly issued by the Communist Party’s Central Committee and the State Council, acknowledged that the country faced a serious ageing problem but said China must “find its own way out, and that means taking a path with Chinese characteristics”.

    The document does not give a specific estimate of China’s elderly population but China’s National Community on Ageing has estimated that, by 2050, those aged over 60 could reach 487 million, about one third of the population.

    According to the paper, which was published by official news agency Xinhua on Thursday, Beijing is calling for an active response to the ageing problem with short-term, medium-term and long-term goals, to be achieved by 2022, 2035 and 2050 respectively.

    Demographers have warned that direct consequences of China’s ageing population include a shrinking workforce and a weakening of the country’s economic strength.

    Yi Fuxian, a researcher on China’s ageing population at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US, noted that the demographic shift could undermine China’s ability to compete with the US in the long term.

    “In the past it has been a young China catching up with a middle-aged US, that’s why [China] has managed to close the gap between the two countries rather quickly. Now it’s going to be an old China trying to chase a middle-aged US, and the gap [between the two countries] is likely to get wider and wider. China’s ageing population can become an obstacle for the country trying to overtake the US,” he said.

    Other social pressures include China’s pension shortfall as the aged population grows, and pressure on the medical system and elderly care. As a result of China’s now-scrapped one-child policy, which was first introduced in 1979 to artificially slow population growth, young people in China are now faced with caring for two parents and four grandparents, with no siblings to share the burden.

    The one-child policy has also exacerbated the ageing problem with a declining fertility rate. The government abandoned the policy in 2016 to allow couples to have two children, but so far the change has proven ineffective in boosting the birth rate.

    In January, the National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of births fell to 15.2 million in 2018 – or 1.6 children per woman – a drop of nearly 12 per cent nationally compared with the previous year, a number which is disputed by demographers like Yi.

    He claims the Chinese government has misrepresented the actual birth rate to gloss over the ramifications of the one-child policy. According to his own calculations, the actual fertility rate averaged 1.18 children per woman between 2010 and 2018, a lower level than Japan, suggesting China’s ageing problem could be more serious than its eastern neighbour’s.

  • 澳洲人的债务风险

    如果负债是一项奥林匹克运动的话,澳大利亚会有很多值得骄傲的东西。

    关键看点:

    • 澳大利亚的家庭债务与收入比几乎达到了200%
    • 联邦银行首席执行官马特·科曼承认澳大利亚家庭债务过高
    • JB Hi-Fi首席执行官理查德·默里认为澳大利亚的经济并没有说的那么糟

    数字显示,澳大利亚是全世界贷款的金牌得主。这是因为几个原因。当借钱成本低时,人们会借钱。

    澳联储已降息15次,目前的现金利率仅为0.75%。

    此外,政府还会对你因借钱购买投资房所遭受的任何损失减税,这就是所谓的资产负扣税。

    如果这还不够,银行也成为了销售机构,就像卖二手车一样兜售信贷。

    猜怎么着?这就让澳大利亚人疯狂地借钱,然后购买房地产。

    澳家庭为何负债累累

    经济学家杰拉德·米纳克(Gerard Minack)在接受采访时说,澳大利亚的房地产市场实际上是个纸牌屋(House of cards,指不牢固不安全)。

    “我们的家庭债务与收入比几乎达到了200%,在我看来,这是一个巨大的宏观经济风险。”

    为什么澳大利亚家庭会负债累累呢?

    他分析说:“因为我们买了房子,而不是造新房子,只是购买已经在那儿的房子,并把它们推到了按照全球标准来讲,世界上最昂贵的房子之列。”

    债务的最大问题是你必须要有能力偿还贷款。

    墨尔本商学院的伊恩·哈珀(Ian Harper)教授指出如果债务无法偿还这会让经济变得脆弱。

    “通常情况下,就家庭而言,这与失业和就业前景直接相关,”他说。

    “的确,工资增长不是很快,但利率也处于历史低位。”

    银行不愿意贷款给小生意人? 

    在向房地产投资者大把撒钱的同时,银行不愿意给小企业贷款,除非你把房子作为抵押。

    热线供暖(Hotwaire)公司的创建人卢克·钱特(Luke Chant)进口供暖地板和加热毛巾杆。

    “我们15年前在澳大利亚创办了热线供暖公司。当时,人们并不真正知道什么是地暖。”

    他说他所拥有的小生意盈利情况不错。

    “每年都能盈利,除了全球金融危机期间,那一年我们收支平衡,但银行却根本不会因此而贷款给我们。”

    钱特的墨尔本公司必须提前支付进口产品。 可能最多要等六个月零售商卖掉那些产品后,最终才能收到钱款。他的银行过去曾帮助他弥补这一时间差带来的资金周转,但在2014年,情况发生了变化。

    “一天早上,我醒来后发现银行刚刚关闭了我的贸易融资工具。”

    “那时,银行决定关闭所有的无担保的金融工具,他们没有通知我们就关闭了我们的渠道。”

    现如今,为了支付这些存货,该公司不得不以高利率向非银行贷款机构借款。 卢克说今年这些利息支出已超过两万澳元。

    “两万澳元是半个低级行政人员的工资。如果我有更好的金融工具的话,我可以再雇一整个人。”

    他认为这确实阻碍了生意的发展。

    “这意味着当我可以出去销售、与客户交谈时,我却被困在办公室里做这些行政工作,我在做一些我可以花钱雇用低薪职员去做的事情。”

    他说虽然每个人都知道小生意对国家经济发展的重要性,但是像他这样的小生意人却无法从银行得到公平的对待。

    “ 我想告诉银行的是,你必须给小生意一个机会。”

    在被问及这个问题时,联邦银行(CBA)首席执行官马特·科曼(Matt Comyn)认为该银行非常关注这两个问题。

    “很明显,在建筑业和房地产开发方面,房地产业都是经济增长的重要组成部分,但生意企业也同样重要。”

    “我们每周贷款约五亿澳元。我是说可以说,我们应该贷出更多的钱。 ”

    这位澳大利亚最大银行的老板马特·科曼承认澳大利亚的家庭债务很高。

    “我认为家庭债务非常高,你可以在国际上进行比较。不过,如果你看看其他一些因素,尤其是现在的利率,如果你看看债务的可偿还性,我们发现超过四分之三的客户提前还款。”

    “因此,我们对债务的整体健康状况没有任何担忧,也不担心客户能否偿还债务。”

    澳大利亚银行业皇家委员会的调查让不少人不再愿意对向大银行申请贷款。 

    澳大利亚千禧一代的乔尔·凯塔维尔(Joel Kaithavelil)不认为自己会向大银行贷款。

    “很有可能,这不会是一家大银行。”

    “我认为老一辈人可能信任银行,比我们更忠诚于银行。我们会更乐意货比三家,在需要时更换银行。”

    目前,银行所面临的压力并没有任何减轻。 政府指控他们牟取暴利,并任命澳大利亚竞争和消费者委员会来调查他们没有把澳联储降息全面转给贷款者的事实。

    现在银行平均抵押贷款利率和现金利率之间的差距越来越大。  

    有初步证据表明,银行正在保留部分现金利率下调的经济利益,但情况比这一点更复杂,因为澳大利亚央行的现金利率并不真正代表银行获得资金来提供贷款的成本。

    “并没有说的那么糟糕” 

    JB Hi-Fi首席执行官理查德·默里(Richard Murray)认为,澳大利亚的经济并没有人们说的那么糟糕。

    “我们的利率低,失业率低,生活水平高。我们只是不够高产。 ”

    “我认为高负债水平只是当人们失业或经济受到打击时才会成为一个问题,而且,正如我在买卖房子时一直想到的,你往往在同一个市场进行买卖。”

    没有多少可支配收入的平常人借贷了几倍于他们收入的房贷,如果经济突然下行,接下来会发生什么?

    经济学家杰拉德·米纳克认为最好的情况是一个小小的经济修正。

    “我认为我们得特别幸运才能逃脱,因为现在房价如此之高,你最好祈祷好运,希望我们在未来十年不会陷入衰退,因为这需要这么长的时间。”

    “如果我们在过渡时期真的陷入衰退,哇,住房确实会是个风险,一旦开始的话,就会加剧衰退。”

  • 分析:妻子赚得多 丈夫压力大

    最好的婚姻可能基于两人的团队合作。但似乎个人贡献的确很重要 — 具体来说,是谁赚了家庭总收入的多少份额。

    我的研究表明,在异性恋夫妻中,当夫妻双方都在经济上做出贡献时,男人会更快乐,但他们更愿意成为主要的养家糊口者。

    当他们是唯一赚钱养家的人时,他们的压力很大;当他们的妻子或伴侣的收入不超过家庭收入的40%时,男人似乎会更放松。

    但是随着配偶的工资超过这一界限,他们的苦闷程度急剧增加。而当他们在经济上完全依赖伴侣时,他们感到的压力是最大的。

    这些发现是基于15年来对6,000多对已婚或共同生活的异性恋夫妇的分析得出的。

    苦闷的程度是根据感到难过、紧张、躁动、绝望、一文不值或每天的生活都是负担来计算的。

    那些是家里唯一赚钱者的男人相对来说不快乐,但他们的压力不如那些伴侣是主要赚钱者的男人大。这两种极端情况都不利于男性心理健康。

    唯一例外的是那些知道自己的伴侣是高收入女性的男人。

    这些男人,当他们的伴侣收入更多时,似乎没有更高程度的心理苦闷。

    人们不会随意选择伴侣,因此,如果女人在结婚前就是高收入者,那么对这个男人来说,潜在的收入差距已经很明显了,甚至可能是与她们成为伴侣的一个原因。

    力量的平衡

    有多种原因可以解释为什么那些妻子赚得更多的丈夫可能会遭受心理困扰。

    当一对夫妇中的一个人在共同收入中所占的比例更高时,可能会导致夫妻关系失衡。

    例如,如果关系严重恶化,离婚或分居的可能性会使收入较少的一方感到经济上更脆弱。

    在未婚同居的伴侣中,这些影响更大,可能是因为分手的可能性更高。

    即使没有分手的可能,主要通过伴侣中的一方赚钱养家也会影响力量的平衡。

    如果伴侣双方对什么是最适合家庭的选择、存多少钱、花钱在哪些方面以及各种计划和重大决定上持不同看法,那么谁赚钱多是很重要的。

    图表:男人的压力程度是如何随着配偶的工资变化的

    传统的性别角色准则

    另一种理论涉及一直以来社会、心理和文化准则对性别角色的影响。

    过去,男性赚钱养家的社会结构已经非常持久。

    几代人以来,在许多文化中,人们一直期望男人会成为家庭的主要收入来源,而男性的阳刚之气与实现这一期望高度关联。

    面对自己的伴侣赚得比自己多会带来的结果变化,意味着男人可能会遭受高度的心理困扰。

    但是现实是情况正在变化。在诸如美国这样的地方,妻子赚得比丈夫多的人数比例正在增加。

    1980年,只有13%的已婚妇女的收入和丈夫一样多或比丈夫多。到了2000年,这一数字几乎翻了一番,达到25%。而在2017年,这一数字达到了31%。

    这种趋势可能会持续到未来,在其他国家也出现类似的趋势。

    唯一赚钱养家者的压力

    平均而言,在我的研究中,受访的男人表示,当伴侣的收入不超过家庭收入的40%时,他们遭受的心理困扰程度最低。

    但是对于男人来说,作为唯一的赚钱养家者也可能会付出心理上的代价。即使社会性别准则支持这种情况,作为家庭中唯一的收入来源也会承担很多责任和压力,因此可能导致严重的焦虑和苦闷。

    尽管对女性赚钱养家者的新兴特征及其可能的后果业界都有广泛的研究,但很少有人关注那些挑起赚钱养家重任的男性所面临的心理障碍。

    缺乏研究也许显示出男性是主要赚钱养家者这一传统的力量。健康和福祉研究通常致力于研究那些新现象,而非社会上广为接受的准则规范。

    性别认同准则显然仍引起人们对妻子收入超过丈夫的广泛反对。随着越来越多的女性赚得比伴侣更多,传统的男性赚钱养家的社会准则可能会开始作出调整。

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