作者: bankr

  • 澳央行行长:不太可能出现“负利率”

    澳大利亚央行行长菲利普·洛(Philip Lowe)表示,澳大利亚不太可能出现“负利率”的情况。如果利率降到零以下,市场信心和经济活动就可能受到不利影响。

    周二晚,央行行长在悉尼举行的澳大利亚商业经济学家年度晚宴上发表讲话时说,澳大利亚的利率有降至零以下的可能,但同时表示,利率更有可能在较长一段时间内保持“低水平”。

    他在谈及央行使用所谓的“非常规”货币政策刺激经济的可能性时说:“我们无意通过量化宽松计划,直接购买私营部门资产”。

    “澳大利亚资本市场没有任何功能失调的迹象”,因此,目前没有必要通过“公共部门实体对私人市场进行重大干预”。

    他还表示,澳大利亚经济的预期增长会好转,2021年将达到3%左右。

    一些经济学家预计,明年初(最有可能是2月份)将再次下调现金利率。

    但央行行长表示,从其他国家的经验来看,“负利率”措施是否有成效“尚不清楚”。

    “证据表明,[负利率]可能鼓励家庭增加储蓄、减少消费。人们若担心退休后收入可能会降低,就更会如此” 。

  • China’s divorce rate is spiking because women no longer have to accept unsatisfying marriages. This should be celebrated, not stifled

    • Due to amended laws and declining stigmas, women are the main initiators of China’s climbing divorce rate
    • Alarmed authorities are now taking countermeasures, but women’s freedom should not be sacrificed for ‘social stability’

    During many of my parents’ arguments, my mother used to say, pointing an accusing finger at my father: “Marrying you is the worst thing that happened in my life!” I’ve always been sympathetic to her since my father was indeed a lazy, feckless and ill-tempered man.

    Yet, mother never contemplated divorce since she held the traditional belief of “marry a dog, stay with a dog; and marry a rooster, stay with a rooster”.

    Women in China were only granted the right to divorce in 1950, when the victorious Chinese Communist Party introduced the New Marriage Law. Throughout the Mao era, only a small percentage of women exercised that right, and usually for political reasons.

    But things are changing in China. In fact, a soundless revolution is playing out. In early November, Zhou Qiang, the president of the Supreme People’s Court, revealed in a speech that roughly 74 per cent of divorces in China are initiated by women.

    I raised a toast with my daughter over the news. I regard it as an achievement in the liberation of Chinese women because they are now more assertive in pursuing what they want. They are no longer willing to put up with an unhappy marriage, the way our mothers did. The trend of women seeking a divorce runs against the traditional culture, where women are expected to stay in a marriage, good or bad.

    Three years ago, Ye Hong, a 38-year-old artist, divorced her civil servant husband, after an accidental discovery of pornographic images on his computer. She was shocked. Her mother, who had endured her artist husband’s numerous affairs, urged her to think about their young son and her “dim prospect” of remarrying in middle age. But Ye asked for a divorce. “I cannot stay with a man for whom I’ve lost respect,” she said.

    Her marriage lasted 13 years. Many unions in China don’t last that long. In his speech, Zhou Qiang mentioned that the so-called “seven-year itch” has become a “three-year itch” in China as plenty of marriages unravel quickly.The divorce rate has rocketed in the reform era. The “crude divorce rate”, which measures the number of separations for every 1,000 people, was only 0.018 per cent in 1978, the year China introduced the reform and opening up policies which have transformed the nation, and has since leapt to 0.320 in 2018, a record high.

    The rate accelerated after 2003, when China made the divorce process easier and faster, including scrapping the employers’ approval requirement. In 2016, 4.2 million couples, mostly urban dwellers, went their separate ways.

    Although gradually easing, there’s still stigma attached to divorce. My mother never told the neighbours about my divorce, which took place almost 14 years ago. “Why should I hang out the dirty laundry?” she would say. For her, divorce was a disgrace for the woman and her family. Luckily, these days, her view has become less common and divorce is more tolerated, especially in cities.The rising number of divorces has apparently upset the authorities. Obsessed with maintaining stability, they see massive numbers of divorces as a destabilising force and have stepped up efforts at curbing the trend.

  • Russia’s VTB bank looks to China as Moscow’s relations remain frozen with West

    • Russian bank VTB hopes closer ties between Beijing and Moscow will enable the lender to expand further into China
    • The two neighbours have sought stronger economic ties following Western sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis and China’s trade war with the US

    Russian bank VTB is betting on a closer relationship between China and Russia to help drum up new business, as the two country’s look to strengthen their economic ties to make up for deteriorating relations with the United States.

    Russia has been looking to deepen its relationship with neighbouring China after Western nations, led by the US and the European Union, imposed sanctions on certain sectors of the economy and on individuals over Moscow’s 2014 annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.China, meanwhile, has been keen to strengthen ties with Russia in multiple spheres in the midst of a bruising trade war with the US.

    Geopolitical issues have weighed on the Moscow-based VTB, which was added to a US sanctions list in 2014 and has been forced to cut its operations in London as a result of Brexit uncertainty. Its business also took a hit in the city due to souring relations between the United Kingdom and Russia last year following the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury, which British authorities blamed on Moscow. Russia has denied the accusations.

    Riccardo Orcel, deputy chief executive and head of international business at VTB, said the bank’s exposure to China was limited, but it was keen to expand its business, including in areas such as financing cross-border takeovers and cross border payments.

    “For VTB Shanghai, we accelerated the development plan two years ago – that plan will be completed at the end of the year with the move to our new office premises,” he said in an interview in Beijing.

    Concerned with breaching US sanctions on Russia, many Chinese banks are wary of supporting Chinese companies doing business in Russia, even when it comes to covering the basics, like sending payments, Orcel said. He added VTB could step in to provide services here.

    On top of cross border transactions, takeover deals are also a target for the state-controlled bank.In 2017, VTB agreed to lend 6 billion euros (US$6.6 billion) to CEFC China Energy for the Chinese conglomerate’s US$9 billion acquisition of a stake in Russian firm Rosneft, one of the world’s top oil producers and exporters, although the deal fell through after CEFC chairman Ye Jianming was put under investigation by the Chinese authorities for suspected economic crimes.

  • Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather – which fighting champion lives the more fabulous life outside the ring?

    UFC star Conor McGregor is known for his suited fashion, family, whisky and tattoos, while boxing champion Floyd Mayweather has his Las Vegas house, Bugatti and Ferrari cars and Louis Vuitton and Prada clothes

    It’s no secret that Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor are two of championship fighting’s biggest personalities. Each prizefighter may have earned his stripes in different arenas – professional boxing for Mayweather and MMA for McGregor – but the two nevertheless came together in 2017 for what was dubbed “the biggest fight in the history of combat sports”.

    Equipped with talent, fame and fortune, both fighters continue to make their mark leading lives of luxury and adventure. While Mayweather ultimately defeated McGregor in a 10th round technical knockout, both personalities left the ring with more wealth and notoriety than ever before. The big question is: who’s leading the more fabulous life?

    Mayweather, a 42-year-old American, is fabulous where it matters most: in the bank. While reportedly worth roughly US$560 million, Mayweather may have generated even more than that, given that he is also estimated to have earned a billion dollars over his career. In 2018 alone, thanks to his headline-grabbing bout with McGregor, Mayweather was the year’s highest-paid athlete in the world.

    McGregor, the 31-year-old Irish fighting champion, has crossed over from MMA to professional boxing and is flirting with an entry into the WWE. His over-the-top personality and undeniable talent in the ring have helped to also place McGregor among the highest-paid athletes in the world, earning him more than US$47 million between June 2018 and June 2019 alone.

    “The Notorious” has used his fortune to invest in a variety of high-end business ventures in the world of sports, fashion and entertainment. Earlier this year, McGregor embarked upon a new project, co-founding whisky company Proper No. Twelve. Modestly, McGregor seeks to turn Proper No. Twelve into the world’s number-one Irish whisky – giving 250-year-old Jameson a run for its money.

    Down to the way he dresses, McGregor has always had a flair for the dramatic. He’s a fashion icon, sporting sleek and stylish three-piece tailored suits in bold colours and patterns. McGregor’s fashion passion led him to introduce his own lifestyle brand, August McGregor. The company’s suits were designed in collaboration with the designer David Heil, who has dressed the likes of Kobe Bryant, Brad Pitt and Elon Musk.

  • Now is a Great Time to Invest in Latin American Mining


    For centuries Latin American mining has captivated international investors. Tales of Birú, a magical gold-laden land that we now know as Peru, were enough to convince Spanish conquistador Francisco Pizarro to lead a risky expedition against the Incas. In the short-term the mission was an outstanding success with Pizarro ransoming captured Inca emperor Atahualpa for 13,000 pounds (lbs) of gold and twice as much silver. In today’s prices that is almost $3billion worth of gold though the silver comes to a paltry £6million. In the following years waves of fresh investors scoured the region looking for similar pots of gold but often with less success. The mythical El Dorado, for example, first believed to be a king, then a kingdom, finally turned out to be a waste of time and money for the British, Spanish and German investors that backed expeditions to find it.

    After Latin American countries gained independence, roughly 200 years ago, international mining investors had to change their approach. But the lure of Latin America’s mining sector remains just as strong. It has the planet’s largest reserves of copper, lithium and silver with plenty of gold to boot. While modest local demand – it has less than 10% of both world population and GDP – makes it a natural exporter. The region’s metal wealth is nothing new – just ask Pizarro – but what has changed are the conditions above ground. Latin America has emerged as a mining-friendly jurisdiction with a wide range of international mining companies listed on Canadian, US, Australian and British stockmarkets. The development of solid democracies across the region since the 1980s has allowed many Latin American countries to finally develop fair systems to manage international mining investment. Of course, profiting from mined metals is a risky business – Pizarro ended up being hacked to death, spending his final moments daubing himself with a cross in his own blood. But from solid, London-listed majors producing a steady flow of earnings, to aspirational explorers looking for that next big find, Latin America has plenty to offer MoneyWeek readers.

    Latin America’s metal wealth

    The best thing about Latin America for mining investors is that it is incredibly rich in base and precious metals. The region’s mining powerhouses of Chile, Peru, Brazil and Mexico are particularly blessed. According to the US Geological Survey, Chile has the world’s largest reserves of both copper and lithium and the seventh-largest silver reserves. Peru has the world’s largest silver reserves, third-largest copper reserves, third-largest zinc reserves, fourth-largest nickel reserves and fifth-largest gold reserves. Mexico has the world’s fourth-largest zinc reserves, fifth-largest lead reserves, sixth-largest copper reserves, sixth-largest silver reserves and is also a top-ten gold producer. Finally, Brazil has the world’s second-largest reserves of iron ore, third-largest reserves of nickel and fourth-largest reserves of tin and seventh-largest reserves of gold.

    “Moreover, it is likely that Latin America has even more mineral wealth than the official statistics suggest …”

    Outside of the established powerhouses, you also have world-class metal deposits scattered around the region. So, for example, the Dominican Republic has the world’s third-largest gold mine, while Guatemala has its second-largest silver mine. Argentina and Bolivia form part of the ‘lithium triangle’ with Chile that together holds around 54% of global resources -that is to say potential reserves. While Bolivia also has top ten reserves of zinc and lead.

    Moreover, it is likely that Latin America has even more mineral wealth than the official statistics suggest as a mix of political and economic factors have prevented international miners from extensive exploration in Argentina and Ecuador. Given that most of Peru and Chile’s largest mines are found in the Andes, it seems reasonable to suppose that their neighbour’s stretches of the mountain range are also rich in minerals. We interviewed Argentina’s then Mining Secretary, Daniel Meilán, in Buenos Aires last year and he left us in no doubt of the country’s mineral potential. “Mining makes up roughly 15% of Chile’s GDP and something similar for Peru. Here in Argentina it is just 1%, despite the fact that we have a wider share of the Andes than Chile and therefore probably more minerals.” We will soon get to find out, as in recent years both Argentina and Ecuador changed their mining policies and opened up to investors, creating exciting new frontier markets in the region

    Copper, lithium and gold

    Latin America isn’t just rich in metals – it’s rich in the right metals. Copper and lithium have exciting medium-term prospects while gold miners present an interesting opportunity. That’s confirmed by in a recent study from the market intelligence division of ratings agency, S&P Global, which notes that “for the first time since 2014, base metals matched gold as the top Latin American exploration target, with each garnering 42% of planned spending.” The rise in base metals exploration is being driven by bullish long-term views on copper. As the commodity supercycle began to unwind in 2012, investors turned sour on copper. Its rise had been powered by massive Chinese demand but conventional thinking figured that the infrastructure glut in the Middle Kingdom, combined with efforts to move its economy away from heavy industry, would limit future global copper use. However, the rapid growth in electric vehicles has transformed the outlook for the red metal. A battery-powered electric vehicle uses about 83 kg of copper compared to just 23 kg in an internal combustion engine. Hybrid vehicles, like the Prius are normally somewhere in the middle. Consultant McKinnsey estimates that yearly electric vehicle sales will hit 4.5 million in 2020, up from 1.2 million in 2017. That would still just be 5% of annual light electric vehicle sales, leaving plenty of room for further growth. Copper has been hit by worries of a trade war between China and the US, and prices are still 40% below their 2011 peak.

    Another clear winner from the transition to low carbon energy systems is lithium. It’s already established as the battery of choice for electric vehicles. While the search for renewable energy’s holy grail – a cheap efficient battery that can store excess electricity produced by intermittent sources such as wind farms and solar panels – may yet give lithium another boost. At present Australia has managed to become the world’s largest producer despite the fact its lithium is made mined from ore – a more expensive process than extracting it from the lithium-heavy salt brines found in the lithium triangle. That’s because historically Australian has been more welcoming to lithium investors than Chile, which treats the white metal differently to copper, Argentina or Bolivia. Now that’s starting to change, with Argentina in particular receiving a mix of international investment.

    “judging from the desperation in Latin American gold juniors investors are likely to get more for their money at the moment…”

    Finally, you have gold. Alex Black, a mining industry veteran who helped investors strike rich in Peru when he turned Rio Alto, his last company, from a penny stock gold explorer into a billion-dollar miner, told us that he’s never seen such tough financing conditions. “Trying to raise $20million for mine development now is like asking for $250million in 2014. We have more than 5 million ounces and a market cap of less than $50million, so investors can get an ounce of gold for under $10.” Of course, a CEO is going to talk up his company to a journalist but the S&P Global report backs him up. “Although financings are moving in the right direction, the $9.6billion raised in 2017 and $9.4billion raised in 2018 remain well below the $19.4billion raised in 2011. Capital offerings targeted primarily for exploration purposes in 2018 were down slightly compared with 2017 and 2016, with the totals for all three years returning to 2012 levels, when equity markets were just beginning to shun the industry.” One theory is that the proliferation of cannabis stocks and crypto currencies have diverted more speculative capital from gold explorers. Gold’s main use is not industrial, so it’s impossible to know if the price will be higher or lower in a few years’ time. But it’s always good to have some in your portfolio for diversification and judging from the desperation in Latin American gold juniors – the small companies trying to develop projects – investors are likely to get more for their money at the moment.

    Above ground risk

    Mining investors judge potential projects on ‘above ground’ and ‘below ground’ risk. Latin America’s geology means it has plenty of exciting mining projects yet the above ground risks have often made it difficult them difficult to realise. Latin America was blighted by political instability ever since independence, with frequent periods of military rule and most countries only returning to democracy within the last 40 years.

    The political instability hindered mining investment in the region because you need a relatively stable and efficient state to create a fair mechanism for the ongoing transaction between the country’s citizens – the ultimate owners of the metal – and the mining company Mining has a massive environmental impact on local citizens, while there are also political and economic consequences of extracting a non-renewable resource to export for profit. In many Latin American countries, the state’s role as arbiter is complicated by the fact that strong indigenous populations have alternative concepts of land ownership, such as ancestral community territories. Those community rights are recognised in many Latin American post dictatorship constitutions but not clearly defined, leading to a legal standoff as miners and locals vie for a greater share of profits in proposed projects.

    These political issues can have a direct hit on investors’ pockets. Investors in US-listed precious metals miner, Tahoe Resources, learnt that first-hand when it was forced to cease operating Escobal, the world’s second largest silver mine, because of opposition in Guatemala. Its shares plummeted and was bought out by a rival for a knockdown price earlier this year. Even well-established mining jurisdictions, such as Peru, can have problems. For example, one of the country’s most important mining investments, the $7billion Las Bambas copper mine, has spent two months this year under a blockade from angry members of the neighbouring communities.

    Those costly lessons have taught mining companies that they need to get community relations right. That begins when they assess a potential project, as there are big differences in local attitudes to mining. For example, central Peru, which has a longer mining tradition, typically sees less protests than the north or south of the country. But ultimately miners need to follow the minerals, so it’s also important for investors to pick firms that have a well-thought out community strategy. Last month in Lima we interviewed Victor Gobitz, CEO of Buenaventura, a Peruvian non-ferrous metals miner, and he explained how the firm has learned to work with local groups. “If a miner just tries to exchange money for lands it is a big mistake. You need to create a long-term relationship based on generating employment for local workers and providing some social infrastructure such as drinking water, energy, sewerage and so on.”

    “Those costly lessons have taught mining companies that they need to get community relations right…”

    Not only are miners becoming more adept at handling these issues, there are also signs that most Latin American states are improving their ability to regulate this complex transaction between investors and the citizens. The Fraser Institute is a Canadian think tank that publishes a global ranking of mining jurisdictions. It judges both the mineral endowment and the policy framework to score the overall attractiveness for investors. Latin America and the Caribbean was the standout performer in the latest report, with the region’s median investment attractiveness jumping 16% in 2018, more than any other region. That’s even more impressive considering the negative weighting of disaster cases such as Venezuela, Nicaragua and Guatemala. Unsurprisingly Chile, Peru and Mexico were in the top three. However, Ecuador and Colombia also made big improvements, jumping into the top half of the regional table and overtaking Brazil. However, just as with community protests, the reality of mining policy can differ greatly within countries. Argentina’s national score was poor, dragged down by the extreme anti mining policies of some individual provinces, yet others, such as Catamarca scored excellently. So, investors need to understand the local reality of a company’s projects.

    This improving policy landscape isn’t down to luck. It reflects the trend of general improvement in Latin American institutions as the young democracies across the region begin to mature. Barring sad cases, such as Venezuela, most other states in the region are gradually becoming more efficient, less bureaucratic and now, thanks to the repercussions of long-running, region-wide graft scandal, slightly less corrupt.

    Readers may be sceptical of international rankings. They may even suspect a pro-Latin America bias on our part. However, LatAm INVESTOR’s optimism is shared by international mining companies, with Latin America attracting more exploration capital than any other region in the world. According toS&P Global, Latin America received 28% of the total global mining exploration budget. “Six countries, Peru, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Argentina and Ecuador, together accounted for the lion’s share (90%) of the region’s total budget”, explains the report.

    The fact that industry insiders are targeting Latin America for future projects shows that the region is fertile ground for profit-hunting investors.

  • 10月中国房价数据显示楼市放缓迹象愈发明显 但韧性犹在

    更多迹象显示中国楼市正缓慢步入调整通道。尽管10月房地产投资和新开工数据仍坚韧,但最新公布的房价数据继续放慢上涨步伐,新房和二手房价环比上涨城市个数均来到近几年的低点,鉴于房地产融资环境偏紧的局面未有改变,预计短期内以价换量仍会增加,房价上涨动能继续减弱。

    “虽然整体市场成交量依然上行,全年有望刷新2018年创造的楼市成交15万亿的金额记录,但从房价看,市场调整趋势明显,一二三线城市逐渐进入调整期。”中原地产首席分析师张大伟表示,“如果没有明显政策调整,市场拐点出现。”

    他指出,这主要还是由于持续出台的政策叠加各种资金的收紧,后续如果没有明显的信贷变化,下调趋势将在2019年持续。当下CPI高位,10月份的LPR保持平稳,预计整体看,楼市政策依然以稳定为主。

    野村证券点评房价数据称,注意到有报导称在房地产融资趋紧的情况下,开发商降价以促进新房销售和筹集资金。“我们预计房地产市场状况将恶化,尤其是在低线城市。我们还认为,中央可能需要在2020年春季前调整房地产紧缩措施以稳定增长。”

    统计局城市司首席统计师孔鹏表示,10月份,各地坚持“房住不炒”定位,夯实城市主体责任,围绕稳地价、稳房价、稳预期的目标,深入落实房地产调控“一城一策”。房地产市场进一步趋稳,价格涨幅有所回落。

    据路透测算,10月新房价格指数共有50个城市上涨(上月为53个),三个持平(上月五个),17个下跌(上月12个)。新房房价上涨城市个数为2018年2月以来最低。而据中原的张大伟测算,二手房上涨城市仅31个,为逾四年最低。

    环比涨幅居前的城市有西宁(2.8%)、呼和浩特(2.4%)、南宁(2%)、唐山(1.7%)和成都、昆明(1.5%),环比跌幅居前的城市有济南和泸州(-1%)、厦门(-0.7%)等。

    统计局公布的数据显示,10月一二三线城市新房和二手房环比涨幅均回落,二三线同比涨幅亦回落。

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    表:70个大中城市新房和二手房环同比涨跌幅(%)

    10月 新建房价指数 二手房价指数

    环比(%) 较上月(百分点) 同比(%) 较上月(百分点) 环比(%) 较上月(百分点) 同比(%) 较上月(百分点)

    70城* 0.5 0 7.8 ↓0.6 0.1 ↓0.1 3.5 ↓0.3

    一线 0.1 ↓0.3 4.7 ↑0.1 0.1 ↓0.2 0.5 ↑0.4

    二线 0.5 ↓0.1 8.7 ↓0.6 0.1 ↓0.1 4.4 ↓0.3

    三线 0.6 ↓0.2 7.7 ↓0.7 0.5 ↓0.2 4.6 ↓0.4

    注:* 为路透测算。

    国家金融与发展实验室房地产金融研究中心主任蔡真等在本周稍早发布的报告中指出,2019年前三季度新建住宅销售价格和二手住宅销售价格月度环比涨幅明显回落,从9月份房价指数来看,70城中有12个城市新建住宅价格和28个城市二手住宅价格出现环比下跌,一线城市平均租金资本化率为59.05年,房地产市场拐点可能已经悄然到来。

    所谓租金资本化率,即每平米住宅价格/每平米住宅一年租金,其含义是一套住宅完全靠租金收回成本要经过多少年,也可衡量房地产泡沫的严重程度。自去库存政策以来三线城市的这一指标出现飙涨,从2016年10月的30.31年上涨至2019年9月的38.96年,三年来上涨了28.54%,这表明三线城市已经有了房价泡沫积聚的苗头,他们指出,应该警惕三线城市房地产价格泡沫风险的不断积聚。

    目前房地产仍有韧性,政策大方向不放松

    统计局本周稍早公布的数据显示,在工业、投资和消费10月均不及预期的情况下,房地产依然保持了稳健运行,投资增速略降但保持在10%以上,销售面积今年以来首次转正。分析人士指出,当前融资端收紧对房企虽构成挑战,但鉴于上半年销售尚可,今年楼市预计仍将持稳,而政策面短期内可能不太会整体松动。

    长江证券首席经济学家伍戈在财经年会上表示,目前房贷利率比较平稳,居民端对房地产影响很小。这一轮调控对房地产开发商造成影响,使其不得不到海外借债,如果打压更多的是供给端,则供给端趋弱。但目前来看,需求端没有影响,因此整体而言,房地产动能韧性仍然很强。

    统计局此前数据显示,前10月房地产开发企业到位资金同比增长7.0%,增速比1-9月回落0.1个百分点,摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家章俊称,反映随着地产调控的温和推进,房地产市场仍有韧性,融资条件并没有过度收紧,居民购房消费虽有下滑趋势但整体可控。

    “但当前房地产销售的温和上涨本质上是开发商加快推盘而导致的,这种短期反弹不具备可持续性,预计未来地产投资和销售仍将维持稳中趋降的局面。”他点评道。

    国家金融与发展实验室的蔡真在报告中指出,房地产金融风险仍是监管机构关注的重点领域,2019年第二季度以来房地产金融政策进一步收紧。“第二季度以来全面收紧的房地产调控政策预期短期内难以有实质性放松,目前房地产企业普遍出现资金压力较大的情况,未来,部分资产负债率较高且资金周转能力较弱的中小房企可能会出现较大的债务风险。”

    一位房地产业资深研究人士认为,尽管目前部分城市出现新盘降价情况,但尚未扩散到全国,部分地区有微调的冲动,但对楼市影响更大的全国性的金融政策并没有松动迹象,还是偏紧的,政策还是稳市场的思路。

    “从中央到地方调控政策的方向来看,保持房地产市场稳定依旧是调控思路的大方向。”戴德梁行亦在其最新季报中指出,无论是中央首次明确“不将房地产作为刺激经济的手段”,还是央行配合个人住房贷款利率调整,都在大方向上起到稳市场,稳预期的作用。

    他们报告称,面对下半年,各地不时出现新房成交遇冷,开发商降价促销等楼市降温的情况,各地出于区域发展与人才引入的考虑而采取的增加人才引进、放宽部分区域限购条件、缩短社保年限等手段,侧面利好了部分刚需及改善需求,对楼市的平稳运行提供一定支撑。

    在国内经济下行的巨大压力下,房地产仍是支撑社会稳定的关键,当前新房成交量规模已整体趋稳,但考虑到未来三四线市场规模的收缩和风险,预计明年全国住宅的整体成交规模或出现缩减,而价格也将出现分化,但旨在维护市场稳定的“一城一策”的政策护航下整体市场价格下探的空间有限,然不排除局部市场的显着调整。

    近期地方微调政策不断,天津、南京、三亚对人才购房政策进行适度调整以满足自住需求,而一线城市深圳放宽普通住宅界定标准,取消实际成交价限定要求,可视部分住宅免征“豪宅税”,有利于刚需和改善需求,亦属于市场化的政策调整。

  • ドイツ アウディが従業員9500人削減へ

    ドイツの大手自動車メーカー、フォルクスワーゲンの傘下にあるアウディは、2025年までに9500人の人員削減を行うと発表しました。日本円でおよそ7200億円のコストを削減し、持続可能な成長に向けて構造改革を進めるとしています。

    アウディは26日、2025年までにドイツ国内のおよそ6万人の従業員のうち、9500人を削減をすると発表しました。

    これによって、今後10年間で60億ユーロ、日本円でおよそ7200億円のコスト削減が可能になるとしています。

    一方で、電気自動車の生産やIT化に対応するため、新たに最大2000人分の雇用を生み出すとしています。

    アウディは排ガス規制を逃れるため、ディーゼル車に不正なソフトウエアを搭載していた問題が発覚して以降、ダイムラーやBMWなどの競合他社との競争で苦戦を強いられてきました。

    今回、発表された人員削減の計画について、アウディは持続可能な成長を目指すための構造改革の一環だとしています。

    ドイツの自動車業界では、今月14日にもダイムラーで管理職の10%を削減するなどの人員削減の計画が発表されていました。

  • 外国企業の日本への投資 過去最高に 初めて30兆円突破

    外国企業による日本への投資額が去年、初めて30兆円を突破し、5年連続で過去最高を更新したことが分かりました。アメリカと中国の対立が続く中、生産や研究の拠点として日本に関心が高まっていることなどが背景にあります。

    これはJETRO=日本貿易振興機構が27日会見して明らかにしました。

    それによりますと、外国の企業が日本国内に生産や研究の拠点を設けるなどして投資した金額の残高は、去年末時点で30兆7000億円となり、5年連続で過去最高を更新しました。

    理由としては、地方自治体が外国企業を積極的に誘致していることや、アメリカと中国の対立が続く中、主要国の中で比較的安定した日本に関心が高まっていることなどを挙げています。

    日本に投資した企業の国を見ますと、アメリカが最も多く6兆5000億円余り、次いでオランダが4兆6000億円余り、フランスが3兆7000億円余りなどとなっています。

    法人税の実効税率引き下げなどビジネス環境の改善を背景に、外国企業による日本への投資額は、この10年で1.5倍に増えています。

    政府は成長戦略で来年・2020年までに35兆円にする目標を掲げていて、JETROの佐々木伸彦理事長は会見で「日本の投資環境の魅力を海外に発信していきたい」と述べ、達成に向けて意欲を示しました。

  • 英国研究:“谢谢”电邮每年制造逾两万吨额外碳排放

    英国调查研究结果显示,如果每个英国人能够少发类似“谢谢”的无用邮件,全国碳排放量将会有显著降低。

    (早报讯)英国近日一项研究表明,每天少发一封“谢谢”邮件可为英国每年降低16433吨的碳排放量,相当于81152趟从英国飞往马德里的航班,或3334辆燃油车所造成的碳排放。

    路透社报道,该研究对3000名英国人进行了采访。结果显示,如果每个英国人能够少发类似“谢谢”的无用邮件,全国碳排放量将会有显著降低。研究表示,虽然大部分人并不了解,但是发送电子邮件也会造成碳排放,而现在英国人所发送的无用信息每年会给国家带来23475吨的额外碳排放量。

    研究同时显示,虽然英国人出于礼貌习惯向他人发送感谢信息,但也有71%的受访者表示,如果少发邮件能够有效改善环境,他们并不介意少收到类似的信息。

    专家表示,虽然电子邮件的碳排放量并不高,但是该研究可以进一步鼓励和启发人们从生活各个方面减少浪费。通过呼吁英国人“谢前三思”,研究希望能够引起公民对于环境保护和节能减排的重视,逐步降低碳排放量。

  • 日本拟助年长者改善脆弱体能 以减少老龄医疗开支

    步入高龄化的日本要追求“健康的长寿”,要加强老年人体能来削减老龄护理开支。

    日本国立长寿研究中心发现,有脆弱症状的65岁老人的护理费用要比无这一症状者高10倍。日本当局决定,以这一老龄脆弱指标为依据,设法改善年长者的体能状态。

    读卖新闻报道,日本老年医学会五年前提出了“脆弱学”(Frailty),尝试以预防脆弱,改善老年人体能,由此走出一条老年保健途径。

    日本长寿研究中心2011年起对3500个65岁日本老人的虚弱度进行评估。有关报告的结论显示,能把握老年人的虚弱度,就可为日本的健康长寿做出贡献。

    检测老人“脆弱”的项目包括:了解他们的体重减少、肌肉力衰退度、疲劳感、步行速度减退程度以及身体活动力。其中有三项减退的列入“脆弱群”,有一两项衰退的列入“准脆弱群”。五个项目都合格者,属于标准的“无征兆群”。

    完成检测后五年,该机构追踪了受检者的身体情况,结果发现“脆弱群”必须接受护理的人数比“无征兆群”多出3.5倍,而“准脆弱群”则高出1.8倍。

    该中心负责这一研究的岛田裕之教授说:“很少人会留意自己的脆弱度,人们接受这一测试,提早了解自己的身体状况,就可进行早期预防活动,这有助于减少护理开支。”

    国立长寿研究中心的这一报告还发现,“脆弱群”老者的护理费用比“无征兆群”多了10.2倍。

    日本卫生当局报告,日本老人社保开支里,增速最快的是护理开支。到2025年,这笔开支将比2012年高出1.34倍,从当时的8.4万亿日元(1新元约等于80日元)增加到19.8万亿日元。

    日本当局提出一些对抗老龄脆弱的点子,这包括鼓励脆弱的老人多吃高蛋白质食物,如肉类以及鱼类。同时,让他们多多做运动,在日常生活里多使用楼梯。此外,更鼓励老人留意口腔卫生,定期进行牙齿检查。

    爱知县大府市是第一个配合这项研究实施对抗脆弱的城市,当局定期为70岁到80岁的老人群体主办体操班。在做体操以前,让他们自己量血压,了解自己的健康状况。

    大阪大东市也是积极实施对抗老龄脆弱的城市,召集年长者来运动以及给他们提供饮食指导。当局报告,去年的护理开销比三年前减少了7亿日元。