作者: bankr

  • 多家外资行加入中国地方债承销团 继续推进政府债市场开放–财政部

    中国金融业对外开放不断取得新进展。中国财政部周四表示,目前已有富邦华一银行、东亚银行(中国)、德意志银行(中国)等多家外资银行加入地方政府债券承销团,财政部将继续积极稳妥推进政府债券市场对外开放。

    刊登在财政部网站的新闻稿指出,财政部积极指导各地财政部门修改完善地方政府债券承销团组建办法,放开外商独资银行、中外合资银行、外国银行分行(统称外资银行)加入地方政府债券承销团的资格限制,按程序吸收外资银行加入承销团。

    截至目前,已有富邦华一银行(台资)加入宁波市、重庆市政府债券承销团,东亚银行(中国)(韩资)加入天津市、广东省政府债券承销团,德意志银行(中国)(德资)加入青岛市政府债券承销团。

    财政部称,外资银行加入地方政府债券承销团,有利于拓宽发行渠道,促进地方政府债券投资主体多元化,保障地方政府债券发行工作长期可持续,也有利于扩大政府债券市场对外开放,助推人民币国际化,提高中国债券市场的国际影响力。

    财政部周四表示,2019年共发行43,624亿元人民币地方债券,平均发行期限10.3年,同比增加4.1年,但平均发行利率同比降低42个基点(bp)至3.47%,较国债收益率平均上浮27个bp,不同地区有所分化,个别地区与国债的利差超过60个bp。

    2020年第一个工作日,中国史上年度最早地方债启动发行,当日招标的河南和四川多期地方债,中标利率全部落在指导区间下限,在总发行量不小的情况下,投标倍数均在10倍及以上,最高超过27倍。

  • China foreshadows more reforms in initial public offering rules in 2020 to nurture the growth of the ChiNext stock market

    • The Central Economic Work Conference identifies the ChiNext board of start-up companies as next target for IPO market reforms in 2020
    • ChiNext gauge rose 41 per cent in 2019, outpacing gains in broader Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hong Kong benchmarks

    China is set to roll out more stock market reforms in the Year of the Rat to better manage market volatility as the nation’s onshore equities gain further recognition from global investors.
    Top on the agenda for China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is the fine-tuning of initial public offering (IPO) pricing system for the ChiNext board in Shenzhen, home to some 800 innovation enterprises, and whose 41 per cent rally last year outpaced the benchmarks in the broader Shenzhen, Shanghai and Hong Kong markets.
    The Central Economic Work Conference, which is the Communist Party’s congregation on economic policies, at its last sitting on December 12 requested CSRC to improve the basic market framework and push on with the IPO reforms on the ChiNext board.
    Under existing regime, nearly all mainland IPOs are floated at a price of no more than 23 times earnings to ensure post-listing success. That valuation typically ensures a 44 per cent gain for market debutants, only for losses or volatility to follow thereafter.
    “The IPO pricing system has been a legacy issue on the mainland stock market for more than two decades, and it looks as if the top regulators are determined to give market forces a full play in pricing IPO shares,” said Wang Feng, chairman of Shanghai-based financial services firm Ye Lang Capital. “A drastic reform to that is advisable.”
    Beijing launched the ChiNext board on the Shenzhen exchange to great fanfare in 2009, a culmination of a decade of preparations. It was promoted as a key to encouraging innovation and push Chinese products up the value chain. Massive stock rallies and profit warnings have painted its recent history.
    The National People’s Congress, the mainland’s top legislative body, last month endorsed amendments to the nation’s Securities Law, paving the way for a registration-based IPO system. It also removed from the law a clause requiring sustainable profitability at companies seeking to list.
    The widening IPO reforms is seen as a step to control volatility at a time when Chinese equities are starting to gain more favour among global fund managers after more of them was added into global indices.

  • 密码保护:降息让2019年全球资产价格齐走高

    此内容受密码保护。如需查阅,请在下列字段中输入您的密码。

  • 衰退、机器人和火箭:又一个欣欣向荣的20年代?

    迈入21世纪的第三个十年之际,直升机式撒钱、气候危机、智慧城市及空间经济,投资人未来在这些领域都大有可为。

    在过去的10年中,投资者目睹了全球股市市值增加逾25万亿美元,而债市上涨导致价值13万亿美元的债券收益率来到零以下。

    他们还看到了互联网公司改变了人们的工作、购物和休闲方式。如今投资者正在为下一个10年的科技变革布局。

    我们能否见到又一个欣欣向荣的20年代?就像1920年代,那些年经济繁荣、科技日新月异,还有女性获得选举权等社会进步。

    有可能。但憧憬也伴随着不安。美国当前的经济增长周期已是史上最长,看来新的10年势必会出现衰退,而100年前的1929年华尔街崩盘也历历在目。

    解决方案可能必须是非传统做法,甚至比负利率、购债这些缓解2008年金融危机的非常规举措来得更加大胆。

    在这些政策得到最大限度实施之下,“2020年代似乎将不可避免地迎来一个直升机撒钱的世界,”德意志银行预测称。

    如此一来,主要央行或政府将大开资金闸门,有如从直升机撒钱似的。而在2010年代,即便是最有创新精神的决策者都不愿施行这种政策。

    另一个在讨论中的激进选项是现代货币理论,也就是只要通胀一直处于低位,若有必要,政府就会印钞和支出资金。

    “中央银行实际上已在主动请求政府尝试更加非常规的政策,”德意志银行称。不过,这些政策可能使规模已创纪录高位的全球债务越来越高。

    那么市场会如何呢?

    虽然持续10年的极低利率并未重振发达国家的增长和通胀,但无疑推升了市场,在债市、股市及房地产市场的价格明显展现。

    由这衍生的不平等现象也引发了一波对全球化的广泛反制。其结果是世界逐渐走向去全球化。

    摩根士丹利预计,科技投资将脱颖而出,尤其是中国一些规模相对较小的互联网企业,因为保护主义会对较大规模的竞争对手造成冲击。

    但该行预计,相较于前几个10年、尤其是全球金融危机过后的10年,投资回报会降低。

    全球变暖,人口老龄化

    在市场降温的同时,地球将继续升温。碳排放、温度、海平面以及由气候导致的贫困和移民人口都料将攀升。

    这应该会资产管理公司更加追捧替代污染环境的产品,尤其是煤炭。根据巴黎协定,到2030年,经济合作暨发展组织(OECD)国家必须停止使用煤炭。

    美国银行预计清洁能源和电动汽车公司将成为赢家,估计清洁能源市场价值已达3,000亿美元。

    人口老龄化是另一项挑战,使人口结构成为一个关键的投资标准。德意志银行认为爱尔兰、卢旺达、加纳、博茨瓦纳和老挝等22个国家将有望获得“人口红利”,受益于不断增长的劳动年龄人口。

    它还看好电子商务行业,因Z世代到2030年时将20多岁、30岁出头,他们的消费力将不断增加。

    但在一些国家,富裕的老年消费者仍有影响力。到2030年,80岁以上的老年人将占美国人口的5.4%,该比例高于2015年的3.7%,这将推动对养老院、医疗保健和长寿创新的需求。

    “永生可能是2020年代最有趣的世俗主题,”美国银行预计。

    技术转折点

    世界经济论坛2017年的一项调查预测,未来10年将出现一系列“技术转折点”,其中包括3D打印汽车、无人驾驶汽车和人工智能机器第一次进入一家公司的董事会。

    瑞银预计,2020年代可能是智能城市的时代,大数据和机器人可以确保更好的城市治理、健康和连接性。该行预计,2025年城市智能化年度支出将达到2万亿美元,互联网连接设备将增长数倍,达到460亿部。

    为利用这种转变的机会,投资者将专注于自动驾驶汽车等领域–ABI Research称,2030年自动驾驶叉车的发货量将从明年的4,000辆增至455,000辆。

    最后,火箭和卫星技术的进步开辟了对这一终极前沿领域的投资通道。第一只专注于太空行业的上市交易基金(ETF)于2019年推出。

    瑞银认为“这与全球互联网…在世纪之交带来巨大机会的情况类似”。该行预计未来几十年“太空经济”规模将达到1万亿美元,目前为3,400亿美元。

    该行支持现有的航空航天、卫星和通信行业上市公司,以及民间市场的新太空初创企业。

  • 贵金属钯2019年一路上扬,涨6成

    在2019年的国际商品市场,原油等很多商品显示出受中美贸易摩擦影响的价格波动。其中,呈现出持续上涨行情的是用于汽车尾气催化剂的贵金属钯。在汽车销售持续低迷的背景下,以全球尾气排放规定强化为东风,需求增加,供给不足正在加剧。2019年比年初上涨6成,预计在历史最高点附近跨年。

    纽约市场的钯期货徘徊在每盎司1850美元左右。临近年底出现了获利抛售,但与年初相比仍上涨5成。过去长期徘徊在700美元附近的期货行情自2016年起缓慢上升。到2018年9月突破1000美元之后,在1年多时间里又上涨了近1000美元,呈现出价格在3年里涨至3倍以上的迅速上涨行情。现货价格12月17日突破了2000美元。

    钯的矿山供给量每年约为220吨。这些几乎全部用于工业需求,2019年预计连续8年出现供给不足。钯属于镍和白金的副产品,因此难以根据供求情况进行增产。

    贵金属钯

    钯的需求正在增加是因为全球尾气排放规定的影响。在最大需求国中国,主要城市自2019年7月率先执行汽车尾气排放新规“国6”,到2020年将扩大至地方城市。俄罗斯矿业巨头Norilsk Nickel的数据显示,中国每辆汽车的钯使用量2019年增加15~20%,到2020年预计进一步增加5~7%。

    中国当地很多汽车厂商在应对新规方面进展迟缓,自2018年底起加快了通过现货(即时合约)市场采购等举措弥补不足的趋势。欧洲市场也将于2020年引进新规,钯使用量预计增加3~5%。英国冶炼巨头庄信万丰(Johnson Matthey)的藤田干生表示,“在中国,新规的影响比预期更早地全面显现出来。明年以欧洲和中国为中心,(钯)需求将增加”。

    包括钯在内的催化剂用贵金属的使用量2019年似乎出现激增。使用英国调查公司IHS Markit和庄信万丰的数据计算,可以得出每辆车使用的催化剂用贵金属(白金、钯、铑)2009年为3.6克。2018年增至4.2克,2019年预计达到4.5克。铑的价格也因需求增加而上涨,2019年达到2.5倍,时隔11年突破了每盎司6000美元。

    尾气排放规定预计在2020~2023年以欧洲和亚洲为中心进一步强化。有市场预测认为,2018~2019年减速的新车销售到2020年将再次转为增加。

    矿山企业正在推进开发钯储藏量大的矿山,但全面向市场供给预计要等到2020年中期。即使处于转向纯电动汽车(EV)的趋势,眼下汽油车的优势似乎也不会变化。2020年或将成为预测今年创纪录上涨势头能维持至何时的一年。

  • 银行现金类理财监管比照货币基金 严于预期料施压中国债市

    分析师观点:银行现金类理财监管比照货币基金 严于预期料施压中国债市

    酝酿已久的中国商业银行现金类理财监管新规终于出炉。分析师指出,新规对银行现金类理财的监管口径基本与货币基金保持一致,尺度较此前的市场预期明显偏严,银行调整资产配置的因此有所加大,整体影响利空债市。

    他们并认为,本次通知中对中长期利率债、中低评级信用债、二级资本债等的投资限制更为严格,上述债券料面临一定抛售压力,此外资质偏弱的同业存单的发行难度可能进一步增加。而在严监管的大背景下,未来银行现金类理财收益率下滑是大概率事件,同时有利于银行降低负债成本。

    中国银保监会、央行周五就规范现金管理类理财产品管理有关事项通知发布征求意见稿,规定投资范围和投资集中度,明确产品的流动性管理和杠杆管控要求,现金管理类产品的杠杆水平不得超过120%;明确现金管理类产品应当投资于现金,不得投资于股票。

    《通知》整体上与货币市场基金等同类产品监管标准保持一致。考虑对机构业务经营和金融市场的潜在影响,合理设置过渡期,明确过渡期为《通知》施行之日起至2020年底,促进相关业务平稳过渡。

  • 灰犀牛

    “经济危机比你想象中要花更长时间才会到来,然而一旦到来,发生的速度比你想象中快得多。”美国经济学家多恩布什如此形容1994年的墨西哥经济危机。

    由于之后多次经济危机都符合这种“漫长酝酿,一夜爆发”的特征,后世称其为多恩布什法则。

    22年后,经济学家米歇尔·渥克出版《灰犀牛》,书中引用多恩布什法则,提出“灰犀牛”的概念,形容大概率且影响巨大的潜在危机。

  • 美国电动汽车生产商特斯拉(TSLA.O)已就最多90亿元人民币(12.9亿美元)的担保有期贷款与多家中资银行达成协议

    特斯拉已与中资银行达成协议 可获得12.9亿美元贷款

    美国电动汽车生产商特斯拉(TSLA.O)已就最多90亿元人民币(12.9亿美元)的担保有期贷款与多家中资银行达成协议。

    特斯拉称,也已就最多22.5亿元人民币的无担保循环贷款签署协议,并表示两笔贷款都将用于其上海车厂。

    文件显示,中国建设银行(0939.HK) (601939.SS)、中国农业银行(1288.HK) (601288.SS)、浦发银行(600000.SS)和中国工商银行(1398.HK) (601398.SS)是参贷行。

    除了支持上海车厂的建设与生产,贷款还将用于支付应于明年3月4日偿还的35亿美元债务。

  • Banks make biggest layoffs since 2015 & may continue to do so next year – report

    Bankers around the globe are facing the biggest job cuts in four years, and their troubles could continue in 2020 as lenders are trying to cope with rising competition amid a slowing economy.
    Nearly 78,000 people are set to lose their jobs, as more than 50 banks have revealed plans to downsize their workforce this year, according to Bloomberg, citing filings by the companies and labor unions. It is the highest number since 2015, when 91,448 employees in the banking sector were let go.

    European banks will see the biggest layoffs, as they plan to cut more than 63,500 jobs or almost 82 percent of the total. North American banks come in second, as they reportedly plan to dismiss nearly 7,700 people.

    Top investment bank Morgan Stanley has recently joined other lenders in the effort to downsize staff, as it is reportedly planning to axe 1,500 (roughly two percent) of its workforce. But it is still far behind Deutsche Bank, which tops the list of planned job cuts with 18,000 employees set to be laid off through 2022 as part of an $8.3 billion overhaul.

    This year’s banking staff reductions bring the total for the last six years to more than 425,000. However, the figure might be even higher as many banks could eliminate jobs without disclosing their plans.

    “Although it’s been a bull market, there’s not been a lot of primary activity and that’s made it very hard to pay the bills,” an investment director at stockbroker AJ Bell, Russ Mould, told Yahoo Finance UK.

    The sweeping cuts might continue in 2020, as some analysts believe that banks continue to face “a number of uncertainties.” For example, Swiss multinational private bank Julius Baer as well as Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA are reportedly looking into reducing their workforce.

  • China’s financial regulator takes aim at country’s murky restructuring process for bond defaults

    • China’s regulators are pushing to improve the debt restructuring process, currently notoriously opaque and protracted
    • Senior officials from bodies including the central bank and securities regulator this week urged that defaults be handled more efficiently and transparently, saying action is needed to restore investor confidence

    As bond defaults become an accepted norm in China, Beijing is shifting its focus to what happens next.
    China’s regulators are pushing to improve the debt restructuring process, currently notoriously opaque and protracted. Senior officials from bodies including the central bank and securities regulator this week urged that defaults be handled more efficiently and transparently, saying action is needed to restore investor confidence.
    The stakes are getting higher, with corporate bond failures in China rising to a fresh record of more than 131.1 billion yuan (US$18.7 billion) this year. While that’s encouraging better pricing of risk, the lack of a reliable system to clean up after a default has unsettled some investors and made them reluctant to provide financing to lower-rated companies.
    “A large market like China’s is likely to see more defaults each year. At a time like this, regulators may have realised the need to pay more attention to the issue of handling defaults,” said Qin Han, chief fixed income analyst at Guotai Junan Securities.
    Guidelines jointly drafted by China’s central bank, economic planning agency and securities regulator will soon be released, the official Xinhua News Agency reported late Tuesday, citing Liu Guoqiang, a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China.
    Watchdogs have already sought to unify the fragmented regulatory framework for corporate bonds.
    Given its US$13 trillion bond market is the world’s second largest, China has a disproportionately short history of defaults. Since the first onshore bond failure in 2014, Beijing has allowed more debt to go bad to instil stronger discipline in a market long accustomed to state-led bailouts.
    That’s put bondholders in China on a steep learning curve – and they’re often finding themselves with little say in a murky restructuring process.
    Opaque practises include prioritising compensation for individual investors over institutional creditors, or offshore debt over onshore notes. Another strategy of concern to analysts is that some debtors are negotiating payment extensions with creditors privately instead of resolving their problems publicly through the clearing house. That makes it harder for onlookers to track what’s happening, and for other creditors to ensure they’re being treated fairly.
    Due to the lack of guidelines, creditors are “totally on their own” when exploring different ways to deal with bond defaults, said Shen Chen, a partner at Shanghai Maoliang Investment Management LLP.
    The new policies to be released by regulators should help, Shen said. “It’s a positive signal and the handling of defaults will be more orderly in the future.”
    From China’s maiden default through the end of 2017, the recovery rate on publicly traded bond failures was 38 per cent, according to calculations by China International Capital Corp. as of September 2018. The rate dropped sharply to 17.4 per cent for bonds that had defaulted before the end of 2018, based on the brokerage’s calculations in October.
    For now, the surge in messy bond failures has made life even tougher for the country’s weaker borrowers: Chinese companies with a domestic credit rating of AA or below, the equivalent of the junk grade, have raised a net 105.9 billion yuan via public bond sales so far this year, the lowest level since 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
    Last week, officials announced plans to impose consistent disclosure requirements for issuers, regardless of where their debt is traded. The current system – where bonds are traded on two stock exchanges and in the interbank market, with different rules for each venue and different regulators – was confusing to investors, analysts said.