美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）3月12日决定，在2天里在短期金融市场实施1.5万亿美元规模的追加资金注入。此外，此前仅限于短期债的美国国债购买也将扩大对象，接近于重启事实上的量化宽松政策。由于新型冠状病毒导致的经济不安加剧，美元资金的紧张感正在加强，美联储将通过罕见的大量资金注入加速稳定市场。
在美联储负责金融调节的纽约联邦储备银行12日发布了新的资金注入方针。通过“回购操作”，在3月12日和13日这2天里向市场注入1.5万亿美元资金。具体来说，12日进行5000亿美元的3个月期回购，13日分别进行5000亿美元的1个月期和3个月期回购。
美联储在资金需求一度紧张的2019年秋季以后，为稳定短期利率，一直通过回购操作进行金融调节。通常情况下，如果是隔夜回购，以1000亿美元为上限，2周回购以200亿美元为上限。但在市场混乱加强的3月12日，把隔夜回购的资金供给量增加至1750亿美元。在2天里注入超过1万亿美元的资金极为罕见，彰显了金融市场的美元资金紧张程度。
“冠状病毒这一黑天鹅的登场，仅仅是让市场注意到了影响更为严重的灰犀牛存在的契机”
如今市场警惕的“灰犀牛”有3头。
第1头是经济衰退的风险。回顾过去，2019年夏季出现了被视为经济衰退前兆的美国长短期利率倒挂，但市场的动揺仅仅是暂时的。股价不久就开始反弹，美国股市直到新冠病毒冲击加强之前，连日创出历史新高。
但是，如果考虑到经济衰退的美国债券市场的预期是可靠的、股价犯了错，那么被推高至历史性高位的美国股市的调整就将难以避免。由于此次股价下跌，此前上升至约18倍的美国股市的PER（市盈率）被拉低。
第2头灰犀牛是央行的货币宽松政策的极限。
3月3日，美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）不等17～18日的美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，就启动了0.5％的紧急降息。
但市场认为降息难以阻止冠状病毒导致的需求和供给的下滑，以股价下跌作出回应。结果，美联储一下子陷入窘境。美国摩根士丹利预测月内降息0.5％，4月进一步降息0.25％。届时，在发达国家中几乎唯一超过1％的美国基准利率也将降至零附近，只要不采取负利率政策，美联储的降息余地将消失。
第3头灰犀牛则是超低利率多年来造成的企业和国家债务泡沫破裂这一风险。
市场已认识到这种风险的存在，但认为只要央行维持宽松政策，企业的债务偿还就不会出问题。但是，9日的原油价格暴跌令市场认识到这种认识的天真。
油价走低将波及企业的债务问题，原因是美国页岩相关领域等评级较低的美国能源企业此前发行低评级债，导致债务膨胀。受9日的原油价格暴跌影响，在美国公司债市场，低评级债的收益率迅速上升。鉴于此，美国股市的跌幅也随之扩大。
不过，SMBC日兴证券的首席日本股票策略分析师圷正嗣表示，与2008年的雷曼危机时相比，“虽然美国的低评级债的收益率上升，但水平本身至今仍受到压制”。
此外，2008年金融机构大量买入美国次贷的证券化商品和低评级公司债，其价格下跌直接导致了金融动荡。
但是，此次出于对雷曼危机之际的反思，金融当局加强监管和监视，金融机构几乎并未涉足这种高风险的贷款。就算信用市场多少出现混乱，也不易导致金融动荡。圷正嗣认为“现在正在发生的新冠冲击仅停留在波及金融动荡的紧要关头”，这显而易见。
此前市场视而不见的3头“灰犀牛”分别将在多大程度上发狂，现阶段仍难以预料。在能看透之际，股价或许也将构筑大底。
The Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak will add $100 billion in credit losses to banks in the Asia-Pacific region this year with Chinese lenders bearing the brunt of the damage, according to S&P Global Inc.
“Some activity will be lost forever, ” Shaun Roache, S&P’s Asia-Pacific chief economist, wrote in a note on Tuesday. “We estimate an income loss of about $211 billion, which will blow a hole in balance sheets across the region.”
The ability of Asian lenders to weather the coronavirus outbreak, which now has claimed more than 3,900 lives worldwide, has larger implications for the global financial system. Asia accounts for a bigger share of pretax banking profits than any other region, according to a report from McKinsey & Co.
The Covid-19 crisis will likely exert sharp, short-term pressure on Chinese banks and almost a quarter of the ratings and outlooks on the Chinese property sector may come under pressure, S&P said in the report.
“China’s regulatory response so far has been to use the banking system to cushion the economic impact of the epidemic, and provide financing to entities crucial to medical support and containment of the virus, ” S&P credit analyst Harry Hu said. “Banks may need to sacrifice near-term commercial interests, straining institutions already facing capital pressure.”
While Beijing has asked banks to step up with support, it has also acted to mitigate the chaos. Authorities are now allowing the nation’s lenders to delay recognizing bad loans from smaller businesses, giving temporary reprieve to trillions of yuan of debt. Regulators also told lenders not to downgrade loans with missed payments or report delinquencies to the country’s centralized credit-scoring system before the end of June, according to the statement.
S&P said given the relaxed recognition of bad loans, reported non-performing loan ratios for China’s banks could “moderately” rise to 2.2% this year, up from 1.86% at the end of 2019. The questionable loan ratio could peak at as much as 11.9% in the aftermath of the epidemic, S&P said.
Property transactions in China may remain on hiatus for the coming weeks and construction is also largely paused. Leverage and profitability may deteriorate in the next one to two years, denting credit profiles in the sector, S&P said.
Foreign banks are also feeling the heat. HSBC Holdings Plc, which generated half its 2019 revenue in Asia, said in the most extreme scenario, in which the virus continues into the second half of 2020, it could see $600 million in additional loan losses.
Fitch Ratings said on Monday that operating environment remains difficult for India’s banks in line with its negative outlook for the sector despite some indications of an improvement in the macroeconomic outlook.
Senior Director Duncan Innes Ker said Fitch expects India’s economic growth to accelerate to 5.6 per cent in the financial year ending March 2021 (FY21) from 4.6 per cent in FY20.
“But asset quality at the banks is likely to remain under pressure for some time. This in part reflects exposure — both direct and indirect — to stresses among non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs),” he said.
“We believe that the NBFI sector has yet to turn a corner even though fund-raising by a number of NBFIs during the first two months of 2020 points to a slightly improved funding environment,” said Ker in a statement.
The authorities have sought to provide support through regulatory forbearance. The Reserve Bank of India announced on February 6 an extension of the one-time restructuring scheme for micro-enterprises and SMEs, and relaxation in asset classifications for certain real estate projects.
However, there is a risk that this approach could perpetuate moral hazard and weaken transparency over asset quality.
The government has allocated 10 billion dollars for capital injection into banks in FY20 but this will go mainly towards bridging regulatory capital gaps, providing for ageing impaired loans and absorbing the costs of merging 10 state banks into four by April.
“Indian banks may require significant additional equity beyond this by FY21 to support loan growth, cover non-performing loans and build buffers over Basel III minimum standards,” said Ker.
Raising this may be challenging, given banks’ limited ability to issue fresh capital which puts the onus on government to address shortfalls.
“Although we anticipate that macroeconomic conditions will improve in FY21, any setbacks for the economy could increase asset-quality strains among Indian banks, particularly if they cause pressures in the NBFI sector to escalate into a broader crisis,” said Ker.
India so far appears relatively insulated from the economic fallout from the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak, but the virus has highlighted potential downside risks to our economic outlook, he said.
标普全球评级周二表示，预计新冠疫情将导致亚太区银行业增加1,000亿美元的信用成本，中国的银行业首当其冲，预计全行业总不良贷款率升至约为6.6%的峰值。
标普新闻稿称，基于标普修正后的2020年中国GDP将增长4.8%的预测假设，预计中国商业银行的全行业总不良贷款率将升至峰值约为6.6%。如果出现该种情形，则拨备覆盖率或将从2019年4季度的186%下降至52%。
标普全球评级信用分析师胡旸瑞表示，中国监管层截至目前的应对措施是利用银行系统来对冲疫情对经济的影响，以及向对保障医疗支持和抑制病毒至关重要的实体提供融资支持。
“银行可能需要牺牲短期商业利益，此前已面临资本压力的金融机构将因此进一步承压。”胡旸瑞表示。
标普新闻稿称，已将2020年亚太区经济增速预测下调了0.8个百分点至4.0%，为2009年以来最低，且大幅低于过去10年6%的平均增长率。
标普预计，第三季度亚太区经济会出现U型复苏，亚太区到2021年年中的就业和产出将恢复到不发生新冠疫情情形下该有的水平。
标普全球评级的亚太区首席经济学家Shaun Roache表示，一些经济活动将永远失去不会重新补上；预估相应的收入损失约为2,110亿美元，将对亚太区的资产负债表产生较大影响。
其中，备受市场关注的中国房地产行业，依旧难见转机。
标普预计，未来几周中国的房地产交易可能继续停滞，因为销售中心依然关闭或几乎无人造访。房地产建设也基本暂停，可能会导致交付日期和收入确认延后。在此情形下，房地产商未来1至2年的杠杆水平和盈利能力可能会弱化，进而削弱行业的信用状况。疫情持续的时间越长，房地产业越难从所受到干扰中恢复。
标普全球评级信用分析师叶翱行表示，房地产销售下降将削弱房地产开发商的流动性，因为销售收入仍是他们的最大和最重要的资金来源。
“一些已处于“CCC”评级组别，或者信用评级低且展望负面的公司，在未来几个月可能将面临流动性问题。”叶翱行称。
THE chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means said the passage of the Corporate Income Tax and Incentives Rationalization Act (Citira) is the “economic vaccine” to the COVID-19 outbreak.
Albay Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda said delaying Citira will be worse than the worst economic impact of COVID 19.
“Corporate income reduction will be the biggest economic stimulus to offset weakness in demand while resolving the uncertainties surrounding the incentives regime will restart both domestic and foreign direct
investments,” he said.
“At this point, Citira is positioned as a first best policy Rx to cure any possible economic ills of COVID 19,” he added.
The economist-lawmaker earlier released estimates that the delay in passing Citira since it was approved early 2018 in Cabinet may have cost the economy up to $12 billion in forgone foreign direct investments.
According to Salceda, the opportunity costs of not having clear rules now are dramatically larger than whatever loss in investments the opponents of the reform hypothetically claim will be the result of Citira.
“My committee has already expressed the willingness to accept a fiscally sustainable Senate version. We have done our part in speedily passing the reform in the House, and we are ready, willing, and able to do beyond our part if need to be ensure that this reform passes this year,” he said.
“The President’s coalition has the overwhelming majority in the Senate. Let’s finish this before the 2020 Sona, and prove to the people that, as the President’s partners and allies, we are committed to passing his most important economic reform,” he added.
Good news
Meanwhile, Salceda described the recent report from credit rating agency Fitch, which raised the country’s credit outlook from “Stable” to “Positive,” as “validation that tax reform is the way to move the country forward.”
However, the lawmaker said delaying tax reforms is a serious fiscal risk.
Besides Citira, the Passive Income and Financial Intermediaries Tax and the Real Property Valuation and Assessment Reform Act are also pending in the Senate.
“The Fitch Ratings sovereign credit rating report for the Philippines, released last February 28, cites prudent macroeconomic policies as the principal reason for the credit outlook upgrade. My committee, along with our Senate counterpart, and the Department of Finance has worked ceaselessly to move critically needed tax reforms forward. I’m glad our work is being validated positively,” Salceda said.
“Still, the report, while being very good news, carries with it an urgent warning: withdraw from tax reform, or mangle it unrecognizably, and you risk your credit rating,” Salceda said.
The report, while citing tax reform as the principal driver of fiscal stability, warns that “a departure from the policy framework that leads to macro instability, accompanied by deteriorating external indicators, could be negative for the ratings.” The report also warns against “a reversal of reforms.”
“We shouldn’t take the Fitch report as an indication that we have room to somehow mess with our finances. Very clearly, the report is a warning wrapped in good news: finish tax reform, or risk your standing. The House has already done its part. We’re even open to adopting the Senate version as long as it satisfies key fiscal goals. The national interest should be more obvious to those who are nationally elected.” Salceda added.
两名消息人士透露，美国私募基金公司黑石集团(BX.N)正进行排他性谈判，打算斥资40亿美元将SOHO中国(0410.HK)私有化。这是黑石迄今为止在中国市场的最大投资。
黑石在2月初与香港上市的SOHO中国展开排他性谈判，后者是中国一家高端写字楼开发商。了解情况的消息人士称，黑石提出以每股6港元(0.77美元)的价格将SOHO中国私有化。
这一报价较SOHO中国1月平均股价3.03港元溢价近100%。
周一该股收盘报2.98港元。
消息人士称，SOHO中国私有化细节预计将在未来几周内敲定。SOHO中国由潘石屹和他的妻子张欣于1995年创立。由于未获得对媒体表态的授权，消息人士拒绝透露身份。
黑石还将接管SOHO中国的债务。中期报告显示，截至2019年6月底其债务规模为326.8亿元人民币(47亿美元)。
此举表明尽管中国面临房地产市场疲软和经济放缓，但黑石对中国经济有信心。黑石长期以来都是专业的房地产市场投资者，该公司9月募集了205亿美元，成立全球最大的房地产基金。2018年，该公司为其在亚洲最大的房地产基金筹集了71亿美元。
中国写字楼租赁行业料因新冠疫情而承压，但调查显示，截至目前大多数投资者预计该行业将迅速反弹。
SOHO中国2019年中期报告显示，截至去年6月底，SOHO中国的投资房地产价值为87.8亿美元。
SOHO中国去年开始出售优质商业房地产资产，因其创始人希望将业务重点转向海外市场。所出售的资产中，包括位于北京和上海的八处写字楼项目。据第二位消息人士称，黑石是买家之一。
两位消息人士均表示，收购该公司比单独收购其资产更简单，而且为黑石完成交易提供更大的确定性。
第二位消息人士说，潘石屹和张欣持有SOHO中国63.93%股权，与黑石达成协议后，两人打算保有小部分股份。
黑石不予置评，SOHO中国尚未回覆置评请求。
SOHO中国2012年宣布改变业务模式，从“开发销售”转向“开发持有”，以通过租赁业务维持更加稳定的收入流，而不是仰赖地产销售，但此举已导致净利润下滑。
SOHO中国2019年上半年净利5.65亿元人民币，较上年同期减少48%。
黑石在中国的房地产投资项目，包括以12.5亿美元对上海丰树商业城和上海怡丰城的投资。
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