作者： bankr

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its best one-day percentage gain in nearly 90 years, soaring 2,093 points by the time markets closed on Tuesday as investors braced for Congress to finally pass the coronavirus stimulus bill.
The increase represented the index’s largest one-day surge since 1933, and was matched by similarly spectacular recoveries in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The S&P was up 9.4 percent, its best rally since October 2008, and the Nasdaq leapt 8.1 percent, the best day it has seen in weeks.

Stocks surged in anticipation of legislators reaching an agreement on the $2.5 trillion coronavirus stimulus package. The gains were led by Boeing, whose shares rallied more than 20 percent; the ailing aircraft manufacturer is expected to receive a bailout in the legislation, and Chevron, which led the Dow’s recovery with a gain of 22 percent.

The coronavirus stimulus package has failed to clear the Senate twice since Sunday after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi raised an objection to the bipartisan bill at the eleventh hour, attempting to replace it with her party’s own, much longer version of the legislation. After Republicans balked at the inclusion of a laundry-list of partisan add-ons to the must-pass bill, President Donald Trump warned he wouldn’t pass the fattened new version and the two parties returned to the drawing board. On Tuesday morning, however, leaders from both parties hinted they were hours away from a mutually-satisfactory compromise, and the size of the bill has reportedly ballooned to $2.5 trillion.

Trump emphasized on Tuesday that he was determined to reopen the coronavirus-stricken economy as soon as possible, floating Easter Sunday – less than a month away – as a goal date. Markets have been spiraling downward for weeks as government-mandated shutdowns have forced businesses to close and lay off workers, but the glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel – even just a rumored one – appears to have calmed skittish investors somewhat.

The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) announced further relief measures today which will immediately benefit 231 licensed entities, 30 registered audit firms and 9663 licensed individuals.

SC said these measures, which aim to ease the cost burden of capital market participants, complement the wider relief effort under the Economic Stimulus Package 2020 (ESP 2020) announced by the government on February 27, 2020.

“The unprecedented scale of challenges we are facing today demands measured responses that offer relief in the short term and support for longer term recovery,” said SC chairman Datuk Syed Zaid Albar.

“The SC is constantly monitoring the situation and weighing all available options. We would like to assure all market participants that the capital markets will continue to function to support the Malaysian economy,” he added.

The new relief measures are, waiver of the SC’s annual licensing fees for 2020 on the core regulated activity of all Capital Markets Services Licence (CMSL) entities with profit before tax of RM5 million or less during financial year 2019.

A qualifying CMSL entity who has already made the payment prior to this announcement will be offered a credit to offset next year’s licensing fees.

Secondly, waiver of the annual licensing fees for the Year 2020 for all individual CMSL holders and Capital Markets Services Representative’s Licence (CMSRL) holders.

A qualifying CMSRL holder who has already made the payment prior to this announcement will be offered a credit to offset next year’s licensing fees.

Another measure is the reduction of the minimum Continuing Professional Education (CPE) requirements to 10 CPE points from the current 20 CPE points effective July 1, 2020 for a period of 12 months for all CMSRL holders and Employees of Registered Persons (ERPs).

Further, reduction of the minimum training requirements to three days from the current five days effective July 1, 2020 for a period of 12 months for Trading Representatives and Marketing Representatives and finally, a one-off training subsidy for existing registered firms of Audit Oversight Board (AOB) with less than 10 audit partners, up to RM30,000 per firm for Approved Training Programmes conducted by the Malaysian Institute of Certified Public Accountants (MICPA).

Earlier, the government had, through ESP2020, announced that both the SC and Bursa Malaysia have agreed to waive all listing related fees for a period of 12 months for companies with market capitalisation of less than RM500 million seeking listing on the Main Market, as well as for companies seeking to list on the LEAP and ACE Markets.

SC said further details of these measures will be announced by Bursa Malaysia separately.

“The SC is closely monitoring ongoing developments at both the global and domestic fronts and will take all necessary measures, as appropriate, to support an orderly market,” it said.

In a joint statement last week, the SC and Bursa Malaysia reiterated the need for markets to remain open to ensure continued and reliable access to the Malaysian capital market, which is vital for immediate and long-term market confidence.

Wall Street’s main indices are down after opening on Monday for the first ever all-electronic trading session, which is aimed at protecting New York Stock Exchange employees from the coronavirus.
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were down around four percent as of 16:00 GMT. The Nasdaq Composite, an index comprised of America’s top technology companies, was down over two percent.

Global markets are down despite the promise by the US Federal Reserve to pump in the cash “amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

The US regulator has warned that the country’s economy faces major trouble as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, and has pledged to take measures to minimize its impact. The Fed has promised to unveil a direct lending program for small- and medium-sized American businesses, which are projected to be hardest hit by the pandemic. In addition, the Fed will also help students with their education loans.

“While the Fed’s actions are an enormous help, the only way the markets are going to find sustainable improvement is when the economy is allowed to come back to life, or at least there is a real path in place for how that is going to happen,” said Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group in a note seen by CNBC.

孙正义率领的日本软银集团（SBG）3月23日发布消息称，决定最多对4万5000亿日元的资产实施出售和现金化。中国阿里巴巴集团和日本国内通信子公司软银等投资对象的上市股票被认为将成为主要对象。筹集的资金将用于最多2万亿日元的自有股票回购和负债压缩，借此加强财务状况。

软银集团作为投资公司持有的股票的价值超过27万亿日元。另一方面，软银集团自身的股票总市值截至19日约为6万亿日元，与持股价值相比大幅低估。为改善这种市场的低估，将利用持有资产，进行大胆的股票回购和负债压缩。

软银集团表示交易将在今后4个季度实施。筹集的4.5万亿日元资金将用于最多2万亿日元的股票回购。这种自有股票回购将在13日宣布的上限5000亿日元的回购基础上实施。此外，将剩余资金用于负债的偿还、公司债的买入、充当现金存款。

软银集团的会长兼社长孙正义针对此次的举措评论称，“是本公司历史上最大的自有股票回购，还将有助于创历史新高的现金存款等的增加，（相关举措）建立在对本公司业务的毫不动摇的自信之上”。针对意图，孙正义透露称，除了改善软银集团股价的估值之外，通过包括买入公司债在内的负债削减，力争提高信用评级。

在下午2点发布消息后，东京股票市场上的软银集团股价上涨。较前一日上涨500日元（上涨19％），涨至3187日元，以涨停水平结束交易。

The overall price tag of the fiscal stimulus package in the US could be around one trillion dollars. With record budget deficits and its national debt at $23 trillion, is the US hastening toward a fiscal reckoning?
The Trump administration wants to send direct cash payments to Americans in the coming weeks to help them cope with the economic ravages of coronavirus, part of a massive relief package developed between the White House and Capitol Hill. The overall price tag of the package is more than $1 trillion, making it one of the largest federal emergency fiscal packages ever assembled.

Whether this is a temporary downturn or a full-blown recession, two things will happen. Tax revenues will fall as people’s income drops, and Federal spending will rise. The result will be higher deficits.

The US debt is soaring, and the country has kicked the can down the road so many times on entitlement spending. It may be entering into unprecedented and dangerous territory, and hastening a reckoning it has been trying to avoid.

The statistics are astonishing. Last year, the official budget deficit – how much more money the government spends than it takes in – reached a trillion. The national debt went up $1.2 trillion to $23 trillion. According to the New York Fed’s quarterly household credit and debt report, household debt in the fourth quarter of 2019 rose 4.4 percent. Student debt increased to $1.51 trillion at the end of 2018. Auto loans rose to $1.3 trillion, while credit card debt rose to a record $930 billion.

While America heaves under this burden of debt, there is another historical measure at play: a rising debt-to-GDP ratio. This compares how much a country owes to how much it produces. In 2012, the percentage of debt to GDP passed 100 percent, for the first time since the Second World War, back when the country was basically one giant factory pumping out armaments and supplies. In 2019 the debt-to-GDP ratio was 107 percent. This means that, at the moment, the debt is greater than the economy itself.

Those are the figures heading into a national emergency requiring massive amounts of Federal spending. In the last couple of weeks, in a state of anxiety and gloom, the country has effectively gone into shutdown, impacting businesses of all sizes. The country will now be adding on a further trillion dollars in relief, with the economy expected to contract by as much as five percent this coming quarter. With plummeting tax revenues, and massive emergency spending, the debt-to-GDP ratio will likely go further above 100 percent.

What makes this scary is that it is possible, were there to be a protracted recession due to coronavirus, that the debt-to-GDP ratio could inch closer to or even go beyond the record level seen just after the Second World War, when it topped 121 percent. That the US might get nearer to such a level puts the country in a potentially dangerous situation, where it just has too much debt on its back, and the debt and interest become crushing. Last year, the country paid $600 billion just on debt interest, nearly 9 percent of its total spending.

Bank Indonesia (BI) has bought about Rp 163 trillion (US$10.1 billion) worth of government bonds to stabilize the country’s financial market amid foreign investors’ selling spree over COVID-19 fears.

In addition to the bonds purchase, the central bank also intervened in the foreign exchange spot market and domestic non-deliverables forward to ease pressures on the rupiah.

“We are focused on maintaining confidence, ensuring the market mechanism to work properly and maintain liquidity in US dollars and the rupiah,” BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said after attending a limited Cabinet meeting on Friday.

BI data recorded Rp 105.1 trillion in capital outflow as of Thursday, of which foreign investors dumped Rp 92.8 trillion worth of government bonds and Rp 8.3 trillion in stocks.

The rupiah has weakened more than 15 percent against the this year to Rp 16,172 per dollar as of 3:14 p.m. in Jakarta, a level unseen since the 1998 crisis. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), meanwhile, recorded more than Rp 10 trillion in foreign net sell so far this year as it lost around 33 percent of its value.

“The majority of capital flight occurred in March in line with escalating COVID-19 infections in developing countries. This has resulted in investors dumping their assets and converting them into dollars,” Perry went on to say.

The central bank pledged to work together with the government and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to develop further measures to stabilize the country’s financial market. Perry said the current situation was different compared to the 1998 and 2008 financial crises as the it was faced by financial markets and investors around the globe.

“Investors and market players dumped all their assets in stocks, bonds and gold and cashed them into dollars. All countries experienced the same thing, including Indonesia,” he added.

Indonesia has recorded 308 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 25 deaths as of Thursday. Globally, the pneumonia-like illness has infected more than 244,000 people and claimed at least 10,000 lives.

The central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate, the BI seven-day reverse repo rate, by 25 basis points to 4.50 percent following another cut last month to help spur the weakening economy.

BI revised down on Thursday Indonesia’s economic growth projection to between 4.2 percent and 4.6 percent this year, which would be the lowest levels since 2005. That compares with last month’s projection of between 5 and 5.4 percent.

It also announced measures to calm the market rout and stabilize the rupiah, including by intensifying bond-buying in the secondary market and cutting banks’ reserve ratio.

US stocks closed with moderate gains after a rollercoaster week. However, the Covid-19 coronavirus has continued to hammer investor confidence, and Bank of America smells a recession.
The Dow Jones gained 0.96 percent on Thursday, closing at just over 20,000 points. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 2.3 percent, while the S&P 500 finished up 0.47 percent.

These gains, however, could partly be driven by speculation. According to regulatory filings, billionaire investors like Warren Buffet and Carlos Slim have all spent hundreds of millions of dollars snapping up cheap stocks lately, a move that could have inspired optimism in smaller investors. Likewise, the uptick could represent the market correcting itself, as the finite duration of the coronavirus pandemic becomes apparent.

“Financial markets, in particular stock exchanges, tend to view uncertainty more negatively than bad news. For that reason, they almost always overestimate the impact of bad news and correct that overshot as the facts surrounding a situation become clearer,” Peter C. Earle, research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, previously told RT.

Though few in government will publicly use the dreaded ‘R’ word just yet, Bank of America chief economist, Michelle Meyer, circulated a note to her clients earlier on Thursday “declaring that the economy has fallen into a recession,” CNBC reported.

“Jobs will be lost, wealth will be destroyed and confidence depressed,” the letter continued, with Meyer adding that she expects the US economy to contract by 12 percent in the second quarter of the year, and the unemployment rate to nearly double.

Meyer called on the government to throw Wall Street more money to avert the coming disaster. “There should be no upper bound for the size of the stimulus,” she wrote.

However, none of the array of measures promised by the Trump administration in recent days have managed to halt the stock market’s tailspin. Washington’s trillion-dollar stimulus announcement earlier this week did nothing to stave off the drop, and the market gains of the Trump presidency were officially wiped out on Wednesday when the Dow closed below 20,000 for the first time since January 2017.

Only after the Federal Reserve opened up liquidity lines with other central banks on Thursday did markets respond positively.

Those positive results came after a week of day-to-day swings. Promises of government assistance and a series of decisive speeches by President Trump triggered momentary rallies on Wall Street, but overall, the trend pointed down.

A global economic recession is now all but guaranteed in 2020, with analysts worldwide continuing to slash their already grim forecasts as the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic outside China results in unprecedented containment measures and a rising number of businesses in danger of bankruptcy.
The moves by central banks around the world to cut their interest rates to record lows and by governments to pump huge amounts of money into their economies – including the new proposal in the United States to spend around US$1 trillion to bail out troubled businesses and provide a cash handout to every American – have come too late, according to analysts.
The question now becomes how deep the downturn will be, and how long it will last, with worst-case scenarios seeing weak growth continuing into 2021.
Analysts have already cut their global growth forecasts for this year to between 1 to 2 per cent, attributing the certainty of a recession to the shutdown of key economies in Europe and the US, worse than expected Chinese economic activity in the first quarter and the negative impact Covid-19 is having on “all aspects of life”.
The International Monetary Fund defines a recession as an annual global growth rate below 2.5 per cent. The global economy grew only 2.9 per cent last year.
In the past 48 hours, a growing number of analysts have made further adjustments to their forecasts to make a clear call for recession in coming months.
“Since our last update, which was on March 3, the spread of the coronavirus has accelerated, and its economic effect has worsened sharply,” ratings house S&P Global said on Tuesday. “The long-awaited initial figures from China for January and February were much worse than feared.
Britain, in announcing its £330 billion (US$400 billion) stimulus package on Tuesday, said lockdowns could last up to 18 months until a vaccine becomes available, while the Australian government said quarantines could continue for six months. Photo: APBritain, in announcing its £330 billion (US$400 billion) stimulus package on Tuesday, said lockdowns could last up to 18 months until a vaccine becomes available, while the Australian government said quarantines could continue for six months. Photo: AP
Britain, in announcing its £330 billion (US$400 billion) stimulus package on Tuesday, said lockdowns could last up to 18 months until a vaccine becomes available, while the Australian government said quarantines could continue for six months. Photo: AP
A global economic recession is now all but guaranteed in 2020, with analysts worldwide continuing to slash their already grim forecasts as the rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic outside China results in unprecedented containment measures and a rising number of businesses in danger of bankruptcy.
The moves by central banks around the world to cut their interest rates to record lows and by governments to pump huge amounts of money into their economies – including the new proposal in the United States to spend around US$1 trillion to bail out troubled businesses and provide a cash handout to every American – have come too late, according to analysts.
The question now becomes how deep the downturn will be, and how long it will last, with worst-case scenarios seeing weak growth continuing into 2021.
Analysts have already cut their global growth forecasts for this year to between 1 to 2 per cent, attributing the certainty of a recession to the shutdown of key economies in Europe and the US, worse than expected Chinese economic activity in the first quarter and the negative impact Covid-19 is having on “all aspects of life”.

Coronavirus: Which countries and regions in the world are most at risk in the Covid-19 pandemic?
The International Monetary Fund defines a recession as an annual global growth rate below 2.5 per cent. The global economy grew only 2.9 per cent last year.
In the past 48 hours, a growing number of analysts have made further adjustments to their forecasts to make a clear call for recession in coming months.
“Since our last update, which was on March 3, the spread of the coronavirus has accelerated, and its economic effect has worsened sharply,” ratings house S&P Global said on Tuesday. “The long-awaited initial figures from China for January and February were much worse than feared.
The increasing restrictions on public gatherings and travel plans, the downturn in Europe is likely to be deeper than previously expected
Keith Wade
“The spread of the virus, which the World Health Organisation declared to be a pandemic on March 11, appears to be stabilising in much of Asia.
“However, the increasing restrictions on person-to-person contact in Europe and the US have sent markets reeling as risk-aversion rises and views on economic activity, earnings, and credit quality deteriorate sharply.”
Despite recently downgrading its global growth expectation to 2.3 per cent from 2.6 per cent in the first week of March, investment firm Schroders trimmed its outlook again to 2 per cent on Wednesday, projecting an imminent recession following surprising national lockdowns and border closures in Europe.