Mr.Bank

作者： bankr

  • 日本经济磕磕绊绊地从长期通缩走出来数年之后，可能又要重新回到物价不断下跌的老路上来，新冠疫情或将拖累经济陷入深度低迷，决策者为此苦思各种选项

    新冠疫情莫非要让日本重温通缩噩梦？

    日本经济磕磕绊绊地从长期通缩走出来数年之后，可能又要重新回到物价不断下跌的老路上来，新冠疫情或将拖累经济陷入深度低迷，决策者为此苦思各种选项。

    经济若重回通缩，将是对首相安倍晋三的沉重打击，他认为日本经济走出停滞，是2012年12月实施的“安倍经济学”刺激政策所取得的一项关键成就。

    而分析师认为，通缩威胁是真真切切的，近期油价急挫压制通胀，新冠疫情也重创了已经处于衰退边缘的经济。

    第一生命经济研究所经济分析师新家义贵预期，核心消费者物价将从4月开始下降，临近年底时降幅还会加快。

    “对通胀的直接打击将来自油价的下跌。但其他商品物价可能也会因需求疲弱而下滑，因疫情损及薪资增长和就业。”他说道。

    “很明显疫情将导致严重的经济衰退，这对物价前景不利。”

    路透调查显示，预计今年第二季和第三季核心消费者物价指数同比可能只会上升0.1%，10-12月当季下滑0.4%。

    日本与通缩之间长期而棘手的关系始于1990年代的银行业危机和经济衰退。

    持续数十年的疲弱需求和物价下滑，使得难以改变的消费者预期更加根深蒂固，让企业不可能上调价格，并迫使许多公司忍痛打折，哪怕在经济增长后期也是如此。

    降价就意味着公司用于薪资和设备方面的资金减少，进而打击家庭消费。

    日本的消费者物价是在2013年初才开始增长，此前首相安倍晋三采取提振信心和就业的激进刺激政策，重振了经济。日本2月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)较上年同期的涨幅达到0.6%。

    但现在疫情损及薪资、让消费降温，并迫使零售商考虑裁员，有将这些政策的益处化为乌有的风险。

    分析师指出，由于日本公司被迫取消在4月新财年开始时的宴会活动，已经造成牛肉和鲜花等商品价格下滑。

    日本制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)也显示出通缩的初步迹象。3月投入物价出现了自2016年以来的首次下降，而由于企业将原材料成本下降因素传导至客户，产出物价创三年半来的最大降幅。

    政策制定者们直到现在还在争论什么时候正式宣布取得对抗通缩战争的胜利，而现在他们私下里却在担心物价恢复持续下跌的风险。

    “我们的担心是日本可能会重新陷入通缩。我们不能指望工资增长，因为现在的问题是如何防止失业，”一位政府官员表示。

    “消费者物价可能会开始下降。这还不确定，但存在风险。”

    该观点得到一位熟悉央行想法的人士的呼应，他警告称企业和家庭的信心有可能减弱。由于未获得公开发言的授权，两位官员都要求匿名。

    与全球金融危机期间不同，现在日本决策者的政策工具箱几乎是空空如也。

    首相安倍周三表示，政府将实施“必要和充分的”经济政策，以确保日本不会再度进入通缩。

    但分析人士怀疑，日本能否在不令原本紧张的财政状况雪上加霜的情况下，拿出一个与其他主要经济体推出的支出计划规模相当的方案。

    目前正在制定的一项方案涉及额外发行1,490亿美元的债券，可能侧重于为现金拮据的企业提供直接支持，而不是以支出来提振需求。

    日本央行承诺在3月加速购买风险资产，但已经没有多少空间来扩大规模本就庞大的债券购买计划。

    加深负利率也备受争议，因此举可能损害金融机构的利润。

    “我们可能会看到重返通缩，尤其是如果疫情迫使东京封城，”法国巴黎银行首席日本经济分析师河野龙太郎说。

    “但可以动用的宏观经济政策工具正在接近极限。”

  • The pandemic’s impact on the global economy will be more than 10 times that of airline losses of US$200 billion, founder and president of Institute for Aviation Research says. Airports in Asia-Pacific will see a loss of US$23.9 billion this year as 1.5 billion fewer passengers travel through region’s hubs, Airports Council International says

    The losses for the wider global aviation industry, excluding airlines, from the coronavirus pandemic could exceed US$2 trillion this year, with millions of jobs at risk in Asia-Pacific alone, according to Zheng Lei, founder and president of the Institute for Aviation Research, an independent think tank.
    “Airlines are the key to the whole supply chain, if they become problematic, other parts of the supply chain will be affected,” said Zheng Lei, who is also the head of aviation department at Swinburne University of Technology in Australia.
    “As to impact on the global aviation sector, it has already surpassed US$200 billion. This is only for airlines, not including [the] impact on airports, retailers inside airports and on-the-ground workers. Its bigger impact should be more than tenfold of that on other sectors in the economy, such as to tourism, and shocks to export and import trade.”
    According to recent estimates by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), passenger revenue losses for airlines in the Asia-Pacific this year are expected to reach around US$88 billion and US$252 billion globally.
    The aviation ecosystem is vast and supports many industries. It includes in-flight meal providers, ground service companies, transport, storage and maintenance providers, employing millions in free-duty shops, retail and catering, ground staff, shuttle bus drivers and security personnel in airports across the world.
    The aviation sector and industries associated with it have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which was first identified in China. The world’s second largest economy and its outbound travellers have been a major driver of the global tourism industry. They spend US$130 billion in 2018, up 13 per cent from a year earlier, according to the China Tourism Academy. But as the disease spread rapidly to more than 200 countries worldwide, governments imposed sweeping travel restrictions, forcing airlines to ground most of their fleet.

  • 关于对全省小额贷款行业开展清理规范的通知

    关于对全省小额贷款行业

    开展清理规范的通知

    陕西省地方金融监督管理局

     

    为推动我省小额贷款行业健康发展，根据银保监会“管机构、管合规、管行为、管风险”的监管要求，决定对全省小额贷款行业开展清理规范活动，通过严格行业准入、推进优胜劣汰、清理问题机构，实现行业减量增质、做精做强，促进全省小额贷款行业高质量发展，现就有关事项通知如下：

    工作目标

     

    按照全面检查、规范指导与清理打击相结合的原则，认真排查小额贷款公司违法违规行为及各类风险，对发现违法、违规、潜在风险较大的小额贷款公司依法采取限期整改、取消试点资格等方式，全面提高全省小额贷款公司合规意识和规范化经营水平，提升行业发展质量。

    清理规范对象

    经陕西省地方金融监督管理局（省金融办）批准设立，具有法人资格，经营小额贷款业务的公司。

    清理规范范畴

     

    一、清理范畴

    小额贷款公司有下列行为的：

    1. 未在营业场所醒目位置悬挂省地方金融监督管理局（省金融办）批复文件、营业执照、公开承诺标示牌、举报电话等；

    2. 未按要求充分计提呆坏账准备金；

    3. 未经批准擅自变更营业场所、设立分支机构、变更股东、注册资本金等情况；

    4. 对同一借款人贷款余额超过小额贷款公司资本净额的5%；

    5. 贷款利率超过法律法规规定；

    6. 存在从两个以上银行业金融机构融入资金，融入的资金比例超过资本净额的50%；

    7. 聘用不符合规定的高级管理人员；

    8. 未按要求建立信息披露制度，未按时间要求上报经营信息或者上报虚假信息；

    9. 未按要求开展年审工作；

    10. 抽逃注册资本金；

    11. 其他违规行为。

     

    二、清理范畴

    小额贷款公司有下列行为，违反国家法律法规的，移交相关主管部门依法实施处罚；构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。若被相关部门吊销营业执照或责令关闭的，由各县、区（市）人民政府和开发区（指等同于扩权县待遇的开发区）管委会出具取消试点资格意见并逐级上报审批，陕西省地方金融监督管理局依法下发取消小额贷款试点资格的文件。具体情形如下：

    1. 拒不配合清理规范检查的；

    2. 连续自行歇业6个月及以上；

    3. 非法集资、变相吸收公众存款；

    4. 涉黑涉恶，暴力催收；

    5. 洗钱；

    6. 开展套路贷、校园贷；

    7. 其他违法违规行为。

    实施步骤

     

    一、宣传安排阶段

    （2019年1月2日—2019年1月22日）

    各地市地方金融监管部门应及时制定本地区的清理规范方案，并及时向辖区小额贷款公司深入宣传本次清理规范工作政策，提高各小额贷款公司对本次清理规范工作的认识。

    二、自查整改阶段

    （2019年2月4日—2020年3月3日）

    各地市地方金融监管部门组织辖区小额贷款公司根据相关规定及清理规范工作内容开展自查自纠，落实自查整改措施。各地市金融监管部门应对辖内小额贷款公司开展自查整改给予指导和帮助，对于自查整改期间发现问题并及时整改的，不给予处罚或从轻处罚。

    三、现场检查阶段

    （2020年3月4日—2020年5月5日

    各地市地方金融监管部门对辖区小额贷款公司进行现场检查，可以聘请专业的会计事务所、律师事务所等机构成立专项检查组，专职检查人员不少于2人，对每家小额贷款公司都要形成现场检查报告，检查面要达到100%。

    四、整改或清退阶段

    （2020年5月6日—2020年7月6日）

    专项检查组根据现场检查发现的问题，根据有关法律法规规章及《陕西省小额贷款公司监管暂行办法（试行）》（陕金发〔2009〕11号）规定，及时下发整改通知书，予以整改。

    在清理规范过程中，若有小额贷款公司自愿终止小额贷款经营资格的，按《陕西省地方金融监督管理局关于小额贷款公司平稳有序退出试点资格有关事项的通知》（陕金发〔2020〕2号）内容执行清退工作。

    五、回头看阶段

    （2020年7月1日—2020年8月7日）

    各地市地方金融监管部门在检查阶段完成后，需安排人员进行验收工作。我局届时也会成立专项检查组进行现场抽查，各地市地方金融监管部门需备好材料。

    六、总结汇报阶段

    （2020年8月7日—2020年8月31日）

    各地市地方金融监管部门要对清理规范工作进行全面总结，并以书面方式报送我局，工作总结中应包含辖内机构名单、运行情况、存在问题、整改情况以及意见建议等内容。

  • 关于小额贷款公司平稳有序退出有关事项的通知

    关于小额贷款公司

    平稳有序退出有关事项的通知

    陕西省地方金融监督管理局

    为促进我省小额贷款公司（以下简称小贷公司）健康发展，建立健全平稳有序的退出机制，营造扶优限劣的市场发展环境，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国企业破产法》《中华人民共和国公司登记管理条例》《中国银监会、中国人民银行关于小额贷款公司试点的指导意见》（银监发〔2008〕23号）《陕西省小额贷款公司试点管理办法（试行）》（陕金融发〔2008〕1号）《陕西省小额贷款公司监管暂行办法（试行）》（陕金发〔2009〕11号）等有关法律法规和政策规定，现就全省小贷公司平稳有序退出有关事项通知如下：

     

     

    01小贷公司市场退出的原则

    （一）市场化原则。除因违法违规被处置退出外，小贷公司退市原则上是市场行为，要从自身市场影响力、公司经营规模、风险严重程度等方面进行定性、定量分析评估，根据评估结果选择自身退出市场的最佳方式，把由于自身原因退出可能引发的不良影响控制在最小范围内。

    　　（二）属地管理原则。各级地方金融监管部门要按照“分类监管、扶优限劣、正向激励”的处置要求，结合小贷公司实际经营和监管情况，对小额贷款公司退出市场进行全过程的组织、督导，着力推进各项工作顺利进行，切实做好舆论引导，维护社会稳定。

    （三）依法依规原则。小贷公司市场退出应依法依规进行，通过主动退出、重整、法院裁决、因重大违规被强制性退出等方式进行退出，但都要严格遵守法律法规和小贷公司管理方面的政策规定，保证小贷公司平稳有序退出市场。

    （四）公开透明原则。按照市场规则，小贷公司的退市措施应透明化，为保护债权人及股东的知情权与其他合法权益，债权债务处理应公开、公平、公正，杜绝隐性操作，特别是损失承担上，应及时向股东及其他债权人公示。

     

     

     

    02小贷公司市场退出的途径

     

    （一）因自身原因主动退出

    1. 股东会或者股东大会决议取消小额贷款经营资格但暂不解散公司，且将公司变更为没有小额贷款经营资格的普通类公司。

    2. 公司章程规定的经营期限届满或者其他解散事由出现。

    3. 股东会或者股东大会决议解散公司。

    4. 因公司合并或者分立需要解散。

    小贷公司自愿终止公司法人资格的，应依照相关法律法规，按以下流程办理：

    1. 小贷公司应当在上述解散事由出现起十五日内依法成立清算组，按照《公司法》的相关规定进行清算。清算过程应当接受属地地方金融监管部门的监督，对未到期贷款责任的承接做出明确安排。

    2. 小贷公司完成清算后，即可向属地人民政府提出退出小额贷款公司经营资格的书面申请。同时，提供营业执照复印件、股东会或董事会的相关决议、小额贷款业务余额清单、公司清算报告等资料。

    3. 由属地人民政府出具取消经营资格意见并逐级上报审批，并在当地报纸和门户网站公示。

    4. 陕西省地方金融监督管理局下达取消小额贷款公司经营资格批准文件，并在网站予以公告。

    5. 小贷公司持陕西省地方金融监督管理局取消其小额贷款公司经营资格的批准文件，即可在公司的登记机关办理注销登记手续。

    （二）因重大违规而被强制性市场退出

    小贷公司因违反《中国银监会、中国人民银行关于小额贷款公司试点的指导意见》（银监发〔2008〕23号）《陕西省小额贷款公司监管暂行办法（试行）》（陕金发〔2009〕11号）等法律法规和政策规定被相关部门吊销营业执照或责令关闭的，由属地人民政府出具取消经营资格意见并逐级上报审批，陕西省地方金融监督管理局依法下发取消小额贷款经营资格的文件。

    （三）通过司法裁决市场退出

    　　按照《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国企业破产法》等有关法律法规，小贷公司取得强制清算裁定或破产裁定后，由属地人民政府出具取消经营资格意见并逐级上报，陕西省地方金融监督管理局依法下发取消小额贷款经营资格的文件。

    （四）通过重整方式退出

    除因严重违法违规行为被依法吊销营业执照或责令关闭外，小贷公司需重整的，应鼓励经济实力强、信誉良好的实体企业按照市场化原则，参与小贷公司重整工作。

    参与重整的企业需符合我省《陕西省金融工作办公室关于印发陕西省小额贷款公司增资扩股办法（试行）的通知》（陕金融发〔2012〕27号）《陕西省金融工作办公室关于陕西省小额贷款公司股权变更办法（试行）的通知》（陕金融发〔2013〕7号）文件中关于小贷公司股权变更、增资扩股的相关要求。市、县（区）地方金融监管部门要按照小贷公司准入审核等文件要求，把好新股东和高管团队的准入关口，防范产生新的风险。

    小贷公司实施重整后，涉及公司名称、公司章程、注册资本、组织形式、注册地址等变更的，按照《中华人民共和国公司登记管理条例》《企业信息公示暂行条例》以及小贷公司变更有关规定进行报备审核，并及时向社会公示。

     

     

     

    03加强小贷公司退出后的管理工作

     

     

     

    小贷公司终止法人资格的，应按照相关法律规定办理注销登记手续。只取消小额贷款经营资格但暂不解散公司的，市、区（县）地方金融监管部门应监督被取消经营资格的小贷公司及时变更为没有小额贷款经营资格的普通类公司，禁止后续公司名称和经营范围使用“小额贷款”字样，并指导原小贷公司依法处理好债权债务事项，妥善处置好印章、空白合同、重要票据等物品。市、区（县）地方金融监管部门要对小贷公司退出情况给予通报或公告，并向辖内小贷公司做好政策解释，避免产生不良影响。对被取消小额贷款经营资格后仍以原小贷公司名义放贷的，市、区（县）地方金融监管部门要会同市场监管等相关部门依法查处、严厉打击，切实维护地方金融市场秩序。

    各级地方金融监管部门要切实加强组织领导，把小贷公司有序退出作为防范化解金融风险的重要举措，强力推进行业出清，净化行业发展环境，实现小额贷款公司行业减量增质、规范发展，消除区域金融风险隐患。

  • Stocks in Asia and Europe suffered fresh losses on Monday due to unrelenting pressure from the worsening global spread of Covid-19. The virus has already infected more than 724,000 people worldwide and caused 34,017 deaths

    Stocks in Asia and Europe suffered fresh losses on Monday due to unrelenting pressure from the worsening global spread of Covid-19. The virus has already infected more than 724,000 people worldwide and caused 34,017 deaths.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped almost four percent at the opening, Hong Kong’s Hang Sang Index slid 1.9 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite fell about 1.4 percent.

    All the European stocks also tanked in early trading, with shares in France off the most. The CAC 40 was down 2.6 percent while London’s FTSE 100 nosedived two percent. Germany’s DAX was lower by 1.5 percent and the pan-European Stoxx 600 tumbled 2.2 percent.

    The downbeat tone to the start of the week suggests “that the false rally in a super bear market won’t last for too long, as investors continue to evaluate deteriorating economic conditions and an escalating pandemic situation,” Margaret Yang, an analyst with CMC Markets, said, as cited by CNN.

    The ongoing pandemic threatens, among other things, jobs, corporate earnings and the travel industry, despite massive bailout pledges by governments across the globe. Last week US jobless claims hit a historic record level, surging to over three million. The country now has more coronavirus cases than any other in the world, with more than 142,000 infections and 2,489 deaths as of Monday.

  • The coronavirus pandemic has driven the global economy into a downturn that will require massive funding to help developing nations, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Friday

    The coronavirus pandemic has driven the global economy into a downturn that will require massive funding to help developing nations, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Friday.

    “It is clear that we have entered a recession” that will be worse than in 2009 following the global financial crisis, she said in an online press briefing.

    With the worldwide economic “sudden stop,” Georgieva said the fund’s estimate “for the overall financial needs of emerging markets is $2.5 trillion.”

    But she warned that estimate “is on the lower end.” Governments in emerging markets, which have suffered an exodus of capital of more than $83 billion in recent weeks, can cover much of that, but “clearly the domestic resources are insufficient” and many already have high debt loads.

    Over 80 countries, mostly of low incomes, have already have requested emergency aid from the International Monetary Fund, she said.

    “We do know that their own reserves and domestic resources will not be sufficient,” Georgieva said, adding that the fund is aiming to beef up its response “to do more, do it better, do it faster than ever before.”

    The IMF chief spoke to reporters following a virtual meeting with the Washington-based lender’s steering committee, when she officially requested a increase in the fund’s fast-deploying emergency facilities from their current level of around $50 billion.

    She also welcomed the $2.2 trillion economic package approved by the US Senate, saying “it is absolutely necessary to cushion the world’s largest economy against an abrupt drop the economic activities.”

  • The apex bank of the country has announced a raft of measure to shield the economy from the pandemic and has decided to slash the repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent

    The apex bank of the country has announced a raft of measure to shield the economy from the pandemic and has decided to slash the repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent, reverse repo rate by 90 bps and cash reserve ratio by 100 bps to 3 per cent from March 28 for one year.

    In the wake of the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, which is wreaking havoc across the world, many countries have been put under lockdown and brought to a screeching halt. India is no exception and has been put under a 21-day lockdown, which is causing a huge loss to the economy. To boost the economy, Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman has announced a Rs 1.07 lakh crore relief package for the poor on March 26.

    “The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to advance its meeting due on April 3. It was decided for March 24, 25, 27 and undertook the careful evaluation”, said RBI governor Shaktikanta Das while addressing a press conference today. Das added further: “The MPC voted for a sizeable reduction in repo rate and maintaining accommodative stance. There was some difference in quantum of reduction and MPC voted by 4:2 majorities to reduce policy repo rate by 75 bps to 4.4 per cent.”

    “This would not necessarily promote growth but avert a collapse, so it is a big positive. The implications of these measures are quite clear that includes no freeze in the credit market. The banks get some at low cost and lose some (lower lending rate, the pressure to lend),” said Sujan Hajra, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Anand Rathi Shares and Stockbrokers.

    However Das, while addressing the media last time, announced a few steps to ensure liquidity in the market and said that he was not ruling out any rate cut. But seeing the extraordinary state of affairs, the RBI has to take this action immediately. Even the banks around the world have cut their interest rates amid the economic challenges unleashed by COVID-19. A few days ago the US Fed slashed interest rates and brought it down to roughly zero. In South Korea, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps.

    Das also explained that these MPC decisions and RBI’s other actions must be seen as a comprehensive package with force multipliers. He mentioned that large parts of the world will slip into recession. He announced that all banks and lending institutions may allow a three-month moratorium on all loans.

  • The head of the International Monetary Fund said Friday it is clear that the global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn

    The head of the International Monetary Fund said Friday it is clear that the global economy has now entered a recession that could be as bad or worse than the 2009 downturn. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the 189-nation lending agency was forecasting a recovery in 2021, saying it could be a “sizable rebound.” But she said this would only occur if nations succeed in containing the coronavirus and limiting the economic damage.

    “A key concern about a long-lasting impact of the sudden stop of the world economy is the risk of a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs that not only can undermine the recovery but erode the fabric of our societies,” she told reporters at a news conference following a telephone conference with finance officials from the 24 nations that make up the IMF’s policy-setting panel.

    She said the IMF was updating its economic outlook now and it would be released in a few weeks, allowing the agency more time to assess the economic impacts of the virus.

    Asked if the United States was now in recession, she noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had said Thursday that America ” may well be in a recession.” She said she believed not only the United States but many other advanced economies and a number of developing countries had already entered downturns.

    Georgieva said lower income countries were being hit hard by the spreading coronavirus, with 81 nations now seeking support from an IMF emergency financing program being used to provide aid.

    She announced that Kyrgyzstan would receive the first IMF support package of $120.9 million to deal with adverse effects of the virus.

    She repeated a pledge that the IMF stood ready to make all $1 trillion of its lending resources available to countries being hit by the virus.

    “We have seen an extraordinary spike in requests for IMF emergency financing,” Georgieva said. “We are being asked by our members to do more, do it better and do it faster than ever before.”

    She said to meet the increased demand she would seek to double the emergency financing program and simplify the procedures countries will have to go through to obtain IMF support. She said the IMF was also looking for ways to expand its current lending facilities to provide more help to countries.

    Georgieva said the IMF also wanted to find ways to provide more debt relief to the poorest countries.

    She said she planned to discuss these issues with the IMF’s executive board with the goal of putting together a package of reforms that could be presented at the IMF’s spring meetings in mid-April. Because of the virus, the spring meetings of both the IMF and its sister lending organization, the World Bank, will be virtual this year instead of meetings in Washington.

    “IMF efforts that start to offer debt relief to the poorest countries and that increase financing to help prevent a global financial crisis are really positive and needed steps,” said Eric LeCompte, the executive director Jubilee USA, a group that campaigns for increased assistance for low-income countries.

  • Bank Indonesia (BI) is ensuring the liquidity in the country’s financial system would be sufficient to meet the people’s needs in the coming months as massive capital outflows seen in the past several days have begun to decline

    Bank Indonesia (BI) is ensuring the liquidity in the country’s financial system would be sufficient to meet the people’s needs in the coming months as massive capital outflows seen in the past several days have begun to decline.

    BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said in Jakarta on Thursday that there is at least Rp 450 trillion (US$27.77 billion) in cash stored in banks and ATMs in Indonesia, which would be sufficient for the next six months.

    “We have been working closely with banks in the last two weeks to boost their liquidity,” Perry told reporters on Thursday during an increased requirement for cash in the past several days to finance efforts to curb the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus. “We want to assure the public that we have sufficient stocks of cash.”

    Perry also said the central bank saw signs of easing capital outflows, driven by the announcement of a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus by the United States and to-be-announced stimulus by the European Union.

    “The stimulus package has reduced pressure on a global scale and resulted in better sentiments for Indonesia’s financial markets,” Perry said, adding the central bank has since recorded a lessening capital outflow.

    The rupiah appreciated as much as 1.8 percent against the US dollar to Rp 16,205 on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), meanwhile, jumped the most since 1999 by as much as 11 percent on Thursday’s trading, the best performer in the region, despite other Asian indices recording declines during the day.

    The COVID-19 crisis is much different than Asia’s crisis in 1998 and the global financial crisis in 2008 as banks remain in a healthy condition despite weakening business activities and volatile financial markets, Perry said.

    “We want to make sure that the situation is different than the crisis in 1998 and in 2008 as the banking industry remains healthy with low levels of non-performing loans and good financial market conditions,” he added.

    Because of the pandemic, the central bank also plans to implement shorter trading hours and a shorter settlement period for transactions starting next week.

    As of Tuesday, BI had injected liquidity of up to Rp 300 trillion into the financial markets and banks to help support the country’s crashing currency as foreign investors sold off Indonesian assets.

    The central bank recorded a Rp 125.2 trillion capital outflow from government bonds, the stock market and BI certificates so far this year. Foreign investors sold Rp 112 trillion worth of government bonds and Rp 9.2 trillion worth of Indonesian shares, with most of the sell-offs recorded this month.

  • 本轮财政和货币刺激史无前例，全球股市沉浸盛宴中

    瑞士在线金融和交易服务商瑞讯银行（Swissquote Bank）最新的评论摘要：

    全球股市沉浸盛宴中

    美国国会通过了瞩目期待的金额高达2万亿美元的财政救助计划，这是美国史上最大规模的救助计划，从而对抗冠状病毒引致的经济放缓，同时终止全球范围的股市大出血。我们还不清楚这么庞大的资金究竟会用在具体什么地方，不过这轮救助计划肯定囊括一项惠及广大群体的援助方案，惠及各大规模企业，向家庭直接派发支票，推出失业保险并推迟纳税时间，从而帮助美国人民在此轮惊涛骇浪中渡过难关并将经济损失降低到最低水平。

    那本轮救助计划是应对病毒的一剂经济预防针吗？现在下定论还为时过早，不过市场对此表现得欢天喜地。

    目前最大的问题是：这轮乐观的市场情绪会继续持续下去吗？究竟会持续多久呢？

    这轮经济刺激计划带来的主要问题之一就是，它比较容易让人上瘾。刺激力度越大，投资者要求的就越多。

    不过，投资者目前明白，为了改善投资者的情绪，美国政府和国会很可能已经超出了可以动用的最大限度的救助能力。目前特朗普和鲍威尔手中很可能没更多的牌可以打了。因此股市可能已经轻触市场苦苦等待的顶部了。公司债券和抵押债券也应开始在这节点承压了，因为大家都在指望着美国政府和美联储了，然而美国政府和美联储来指望谁呢？

    须密切关注股价波幅及美元流入

    为了评估股市反弹的程度，我们要密切关注以下两件事：股价的波动幅度和美元的流入问题。

    第一，每日波动最好不要在5%至10%的幅度，无论是上涨还是下跌。资产价格跳涨10%和大跌10%的性质一样，都值得令人担忧。因此，要稳定股市价格，每日波动幅度最好在1%至3%之间，从而可以在短期至中期恢复投资者的信心。

    然后，市场买入美元的速度在放缓，暗示投资者套现速度在放缓，同时在开始将手头积攒的大堆现金重返股市。

    需要指出的是，我们目前还几乎无法预判接下来数周或数月股市会何去何从。随着全球性经济衰退若隐若现，这其实几乎是板上钉钉的事了，至少在今年上半年，受冠状病毒影响的经济数据显然会每天刺激着投资者的神经。这样看来，昨天公布的3月预估采购经理人指数对大多数经济体来讲都是灾难性的，其中服务业采购经理人指数会随着社会活动的完全停滞而遭受史无前例的重击，因为发达国家服务业占国民经济的比重是压倒性的。

    不过从长期来看，股市总会从最艰难的股灾中恢复过来并逐渐走强，至少股价会在金融危机过后反弹。