作者: bankr

  • Indian Retail Banking Space Is Attracting Foreign Lenders

    With the rapidly changing digital technology India has seen a sharp increase in online banking and financial inclusion of the common man. Lured by a massive economy and rising middle-class incomes and living standards, a large number of foreign lenders in India have been vying for a bigger share of the Indian banking market for decades, yet they account for just 6 per cent of the total Indian banking assets.

    After the recent government’s effort to ease the regulations in the banking space and the thrust on digital payments and banking there is a renewed interest of foreign investors especially PE funds to participate in the Indian banking pie. Attractive returns in India compared to the rest of developed countries are bolstering foreign banks such as Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC to invest more in a market that has a vast pool of unpenetrated retail banking clientele.

    For example, Deutsche Bank, that two years ago considered selling the Indian unit, and recently in July last year laid off 18,000 staff globally as part of a broader restructuring, is staying put in India which is home to its only retail business outside Europe. The bank injected nearly 500 million euros ($552.45 million) into those operations in early 2019; it is the single largest investment in the country and aims to double its India revenues from current levels.

    HSBC’s pre-tax profit from its India retail and wealth management unit more than doubled to a record $48 million last year. While small compared with the $6.6 billion it made in its home market of Hong Kong, the figure contrasted sharply with HSBC’s $74 million loss in China. The Asia-focused lender, which intends to double spending on technology and marketing in the coming three years, aims to double profit again over the next three to five years.

    The year 2019 saw a steady flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into India, despite comparatively slower growth in the global and Indian economy. FDI inflows until September 2019 stood at $26 billion indicating a 15 per cent growth over the previous year. The following chart shows the distribution of FDI in India across various sectors, for the last three quarters of FY20. The services sector (including Financial, Banking, Insurance, Non-Financial or Business) India received the highest share in FDIs amounting to over 639 billion Indian rupees in fiscal year 2019 and 458 billion Indian rupees in the first three quarters of fiscal year 2020 which is 24.63 per cent of total FDI inflows in India. A large portion of these FDI inflows is going towards innovative fintech companies who are leveraging technology and are focused on enrolling customers without minimal or no paperwork. FDI is also being channeled into peer to peer lending companies and other non-banking financial companies which have a strong retail footprint and are trying to meet the credit needs of people who are unable to tap the conventional banking channels.

    The growth in the retail banking or lending space is aided by technological innovations but the role of regulatory easing in this growth spurt cannot be ignored. The banking regulator has been very supportive in providing policy legroom to ease banking, services like online customer on-boarding and servicing, background checks which were not approved by the regulators, have been approved in recent times. The government’s conscious efforts and policy push to move more and more consumers as well as merchants into the formal economy have also led to an increase in the size of the overall banking space which has created ample room for all players to grow their businesses.

    Foreign banks have been able to leverage these positive developments to their advantage which reflected in their annualised return on equity from their Indian operations to approximately 10 per cent, which stands approximately 40 per cent higher than the ROE’s of domestic Indian lenders. The Indian banking industry at this point is going through a lot of churns, PSU banks are reeling under huge NPA’s and the leading private banking players are dealing with significant corporate governance issues, foreign capital along with brings in best corporate governance practices which has been the reason of the recent success of foreign banks and investors in the Indian banking space.

  • Banking In The Times Of COVID-19

    As India remains in a lockdown till May 3, a question that is popping up on everyone’s mind happens to be—how banking services will be affected?
    Needless to say, banking services are considered essential and are expected to continue during the lockdown. “Core banking activities will continue to function as usual. Bank branches are operational and continue to provide services. However, banks have trimmed working hours or have staggered working hours to maintain social distancing, with most banks working from 10 am to 2 pm.”
    “Nonetheless, activities that require third-party support, such as those including document collection and verification, are currently moving slowly because of the lockdown,” says Adhil Shetty, CEO, BankBazaar.
    Banks are also working with limited staff, so you may have to spend more time at a bank. Also, most banks have streamlined their phone banking services and you can expect longer wait times and services being limited to emergency services like blocking a lost or stolen card. For most other services, banks are encouraging their customers to use their website or app.
    In these circumstances, one needs to avoid going out. Shetty advises that as much as possible, one should try to complete all their banking requirements online. Unless absolutely essential, try to postpone activities that requires a physical visit.
    “The pandemic has brought about an urgent need to revaluate how we look at all our essential services including banking. The changes happening now are not a temporary stop-gap measure but reflect the shape of things to come. Going forward, banking is going to fundamentally change to an essentially paperless model in the post-COVID world,” he adds.
    The idea is to use digital alternatives to cash as much as possible to reduce ATM visits. In case you do require cash, compute how much cash you would require for the next few weeks and withdraw a larger amount so that you do not need to visit the ATM again in the next few weeks.
    Apart from transferring funds, banks allow you to do a number of other tasks including applying for cheque books, issuing standing instructions, making bill payments, open or modify FDs and RDs. You can also apply for a new card or block a card through your mobile banking.
    If you can postpone some activities, like applying for a loan or opening an account, you may wait till the lockdown is over.
    And most importantly, even you are visiting a bank; maintain social distancing rules strictly as advised by bank officials and use precaution such as a mask and gloves. Exercise precaution. Stay Safe and healthy.

  • 福兮?祸兮? 如何评价经济停摆下的超低廉石油

    让美国原油价格破天荒摔至负值的这波跌势,或许到头来反而为全球经济带来一线光明,等到对抗新冠疫情的封锁措施终于解除时,低油价可能成为经济复苏的一道跳板。

    便宜油价会压低运输及制造成本,民众荷包也有了更多非必需消费的余裕空间,基本上这等于放松了资金状况。但低油价也可能造成破坏,打击股市及油企财务状况,加剧通缩风险。

    那么这次到底会演变成哪种情况?

    根据顾问公司CrossBorder Capital编制的一项流动性指数,油价下挫,加上美国联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)等各大央行的刺激措施,已使资金状况大为宽松。

    CrossBorder Capital执行董事Michael Howell估计,美联储的刺激措施让这项流动性指数上个月上升了10点。但Howell指出,油价下挫的影响更大–原油期货每下跌10%,这项指数就上升3-4点,因此,今年以来油价重挫60-70%,提振效果相当于美联储3月行动的两倍。

    但由于油价波动是受到前所未见的需求崩盘、预料今年需求将下滑近3,000万桶/日的影响,那这样市场和经济还能受益吗?

    答案是有好有坏。

    从负面角度来看,油价波动将会通过股价下跌、公司债收益率升高以及能源业资本支出下滑来收紧融资环境。汽油价格虽然便宜,但目前还不会诱使人们进行长途旅行。

    但这些紧收效果有部分被货币及财政刺激所抵销,同时Howell的指数对于经济而言是一个吉兆–他称该指数通常领先采购经理人指数(PMI)三至六个月时间。

    Howell补充称,“这告诉我们的是,当疫情封锁措施结束时,经济可能出现某种形式的V型回升。”

    百达资产管理的Steve Donzé追踪的另一组流动性指标,是通过“过剩流动性”观察油市变化,基本上就是生产价格下降会释放资源可投资于金融资产。

    Donzé称,当前的过剩流动性比例为14-16%,高于2019年底时的约7%,暗示六个月内股票市盈率(本益比)将出现50%的调整。

    “这一时间差造成了所有这些差异,别忘了2008年12月各国的政策反应高峰与2009年3月市场触底之间的时间差,”他补充称,指的是2008-2009年的危机。

    股票和信贷市场对本周的油市巨震反应相对平静;市场价格可能已经反映出今年迄今的大幅下跌,而包含一些垃圾债在内的公司债则受到美国联邦储备理事会(美联储/FED)的支持。

    进口国/出口国

    但那些情况并不适用于沙特和俄罗斯等产油国,这些国家将被迫动用以备不时之需的资金来令经济维持活力。但另一方面,土耳其和印度等发展中国家将乐见进口价格下降,从而缓解通胀压力。

    但有件事情自前几次油价崩跌以来已发生了改变,那就是美国摇身成为原油净出口大国,据摩根士丹利,油气开采占美国年度GDP的0.5%,占企业投资的4%。

    那意味着便宜的油价不再完全有利于美国,实际上,据摩根士丹利分析师上月的预估,油价下跌50%,将使美国GDP减少25个基点。

    不过最终来说,影响会是正面的。摩根士丹利对客户表示,汽油零售价哪怕只下跌40%,都能给美国民众释放多达1,250亿美元的年化可支配收入,或相当于GDP的0.6%。

    摩根士丹利还指出,所以虽然结果对美国短期经济增长有净负面的影响,但消费者储蓄缓冲“将在增长放缓的时刻发挥强化复苏的作用。”

    另一个担忧是,油价崩跌使得发达国家抗击通缩的努力变得复杂化。

    然而,意大利裕信银行(UniCredit)称,尽管油价跌势扩大,过去两周美国和欧元区的通胀预期分别只下降了10基点和5基点。该行将此归因于央行大规模刺激措施所产生的反作用力。

  • ECB to accept fallen angels as collateral

    Investment-grade bonds that have been downgraded to a rating of at least BB are now eligible for use as collateral in eurozone credit operations, the European Central Bank said.

    The move will increase the amount of available, eligible collateral in light of ongoing corporate-credit rating downgrades as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the bank said Wednesday. The ECB hopes the measures will provide additional liquidity and funding to the eurozone economy.

    The use of these bonds — known as fallen angels — as collateral will last until September 2021, the ECB said.

    Prior to the ECB’s decision investment-grade bonds with a rating of at least BBB- were considered eligible collateral.

    The announcement follows a broader easing of collateral rules adopted by the ECB’s governing council on April 7, which included a temporary increase in the central bank’s risk tolerance.

  • ECB relaxes collateral rules to accept ‘fallen angel’ obligations

    The European Central Bank has changed its rules to accept “fallen angel” bonds that lose their prime credit ratings to maintain banks’ access to ultra-cheap liquidity during the coronavirus crisis.

    The move, which was approved by an unexpected appeal by the ECB’s governing council on Wednesday, aims to limit financial turmoil that could otherwise be caused by an expected wave of credit downgrades in response to the pandemic.

    About $ 275 billion in non-financial corporate bonds could become fallen angels by downgrading below the triple B minimum required for investment grade status over the next year, according to OECD estimates in February.

    The ECB has already granted a waiver for Greek sovereign bonds from its ban on collateral assets that have a credit rating below investment quality as part of a general relaxation of its collateral rules that she announced two weeks ago.

    The ECB said on Wednesday that it had also decided to temporarily exempt bonds that are downgraded to junk status from its requirement that any collateral it accepts should have an investment grade rating. Its relaxed warranty rules will remain until September 2021.

    He said he was ready to go further if necessary to avoid a eurozone debt crisis. “The ECB may decide, if and when necessary, to take additional measures to further mitigate the impact of downgrades, in particular with a view to ensuring the smooth transmission of its monetary policy in all jurisdictions in the euro area “, He specified.

    Alberto Gallo, portfolio manager of the hedge fund Algebris Investments, said: “The ECB acts to limit the pro-cyclical action of rating agencies and to protect sovereigns like Italy from deterioration. High-yield firms and SMEs account for a large part of the real economy. It is important that the aid is not only for large companies. “

    Investors are particularly concerned about a possible downgrade in Italian sovereign debt ratings, with Standard & Poor’s expected to announce a decision on Friday. Italy’s already weak economy was one of the hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis, raising fears that its high debt could become unsustainable.

    Italian 10-year sovereign debt yields were sketched out on Wednesday before the ECB’s unannounced announcement, reaching 2.27% before falling to 2.08%.

    However, ECB officials said that its decision to accept fallen angel bonds as collateral was more aimed at corporate bonds. Any downgrade of Italian sovereign debt to trash could be treated using a waiver similar to that granted to Greek bonds, they said.

    UBS underscored the magnitude of the potential fallen angel problem, noting recently that since 2011, European bonds rated triple B minus, a notch above junk status, had “swelled” from € 330 billion to 1, 14 billion euros. However, the issuance of junk bonds rated double B on the high-yield market increased from 74 to 185 billion euros.

    The US Federal Reserve has gone a step further by including junk bonds in its asset purchase program and Wednesday’s ECB decision prompted speculation that it could follow suit as early as next week when its board will meet to discuss monetary policy.

    “Right now, companies in the high-yield space are borrowing at high levels,” said Mona Mahajan, investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. “Both the ECB and the Fed are working to ensure that the high-yield and credit markets remain generally liquid and functioning.”

    Bob Michele, chief investment officer and global fixed income manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: “The ECB pretty much telegraphs to the EU if you increase the spending packages, we are able to increase our purchases to help control funding. of this package. “

    The ECB said it had “decided to extend the eligibility of marketable assets and the issuers of those assets that met the minimum credit quality requirements on April 7, 2020 in the event of a deterioration in credit ratings decided by credit reporting agencies.” ratings accepted in the Eurosystem. as long as the ratings remain above a certain level of credit quality ”.

    This means that all investment grade bonds as of April 7 will continue to be eligible even if they are downgraded below the triple B level by the major credit rating agencies as long as their rating remains no more than two notches below. investment grade.

    Securities backed by assets with a rating of at least A-minus will benefit from rights acquired under the ECB’s guarantee scheme as long as their rating remains equal to or greater than double B plus. Fallen angel assets will be subject to “haircuts” to reduce their collateral value based on their last credit rating.

  • The ECB Prepares the Way for Buying Junk Bonds

    The European Central Bank’s meeting on April 30 might be its most important as it tries to manage the devastating economic impact of the Covid-19 virus. While its reaction so far has worked, it will need much greater firepower in the future. It will also have to be much more flexible in how it applies its rules on asset purchases.

    While the European Union’s political leaders haggle over their fiscal package at a meeting on Thursday, the real heavy lifting will have to be done by the ECB, as usual. The central bank signaled on April 7 that a loosening on junk-rated debt might be coming when it said it would “assess further measures to temporarily mitigate the effect on counterparties’ collateral availability from rating downgrades.” Bloomberg News reported that this may be discussed in detail in a policy makers’ call on Wednesday. This would allow for a comprehensive plan to be unveiled at the ECB’s Governing Council meeting next week.

    The situation is urgent. S&P Global Ratings is set to review Italy’s BBB (negative outlook) rating on Friday. The expected one-notch downgrade would still leave Rome on just the right side of the investment grade boundary, but it would push the debt of many other Italian issuers — effectively tied to their country’s rating — into junk. That would create liquidity constraints in the Italian banking system if a raft of bank and corporate debt became ineligible for use as collateral with the ECB.

  • Astra, Standard Chartered sell Bank Permata at lower price to Bangkok Bank

    Publicly listed diversified conglomerate PT Astra International and British lender Standard Chartered Bank have agreed to lower the sale price of Bank Permata as the COVID-19 pandemic poses risks to the financial industry.

    Both companies agreed to amend the conditional sale and purchase agreement on April 20 with Thailand-based Bangkok Bank as the buyer.

    “According to the amendment letter, the purchasing price has been changed to 1.63 times Bank Permata’s book value from 1.77 times its book value,” Astra International said in an information disclosure posted on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) website on April 20.

    The change stated in the amendment letter is conditional upon the transaction being completed on or prior to June 30.

    Astra’s investor relations head Tira Ardianti told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday that the decision to lower the purchase price was made in light of the unfavorable economic conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    “Both the seller [Astra and SCB] and the buyer [Bangkok Bank] agreed to the incentive to complete the transaction as well as to provide a sense of certainty to the market during this uncertain time,” she said via text message.

    Astra’s parent company Jardine Cycle and Carriage Ltd estimated the sale price to be about Rp 17.46 trillion (US$ 1.12 billion) for Astra, based on it being 1.63 times book value as of Dec. 31, 2019, according to a filing on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).

    [RA::Bangkok Bank to acquire another Indonesian bank after Permata deal: OJK
    ::https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/05/bangkok-bank-to-acquire-another-indonesian-bank-after-permata-deal-ojk.html]

    Bank Permata announced in December 2019 that Astra and Standard Chartered Bank, each holding a 44.56 percent stake in the bank, agreed to sell their stakes totaling 89.12 percent to Bangkok Bank.

    The deal valued Bank Permata at 1.77 times its book value per September and indicated a purchase price of Rp 1,498 per share, meaning that Bangkok Bank would buy the two companies’ stakes for a total of Rp 37.44 trillion.

  • Gordon French began a sabbatical on April 15, is expected to explore ‘other opportunities’ at the bank. The management shake-up comes as HSBC CEO Noel Quinn realigns the global banking and markets business

    HSBC’s investment banking head in Asia-Pacific took a six-month sabbatical beginning this month as part of chief executive Noel Quinn’s efforts to reshape the 155-year-old bank.
    Gordon French, the Asia-Pacific head of its global banking and markets business and one of its highest-paid bankers in the region, began a sabbatical on April 15 and is expected to explore “other opportunities” within the group when he returns, according to an internal memorandum seen by the South China Morning Post.
    The move is part of a realignment of the investment bank that would see regional head roles split between its global banking operations and its markets and securities services business.
    Thierry Roland, the regional head for the business in Europe, will head the bank’s newly created RWA Optimisation Unit, which will dispose of assets that do not meet the bank’s return expectations, according to the memo. Andre Brandao will serve as the regional head for the Americas until the end of the year, with a further announcement expected later.
    HSBC’s investment banking head in Asia-Pacific took a six-month sabbatical beginning this month as part of chief executive Noel Quinn’s efforts to reshape the 155-year-old bank.
    Gordon French, the Asia-Pacific head of its global banking and markets business and one of its highest-paid bankers in the region, began a sabbatical on April 15 and is expected to explore “other opportunities” within the group when he returns, according to an internal memorandum seen by the South China Morning Post.
    The move is part of a realignment of the investment bank that would see regional head roles split between its global banking operations and its markets and securities services business.
    Thierry Roland, the regional head for the business in Europe, will head the bank’s newly created RWA Optimisation Unit, which will dispose of assets that do not meet the bank’s return expectations, according to the memo. Andre Brandao will serve as the regional head for the Americas until the end of the year, with a further announcement expected later.

  • UOB tutup lapan cawangan sepanjang PKP

    KUALA LUMPUR – United Overseas Bank (Malaysia) Berhad (UOB Malaysia) menutup lapan daripada 45 cawangannya di seluruh negara bagi melindungi kesejahteraan pelanggan dan kakitangannya berikutan pandemik Covid-19.

    Cawangan-cawangan yang terlibat ialah Jalan Imbi dan Medan Pasar di Kuala Lumpur; Kota Damansara, Shah Alam dan Ijok di Selangor; Raub dan Bentong di Pahang dan Sandaka, Sabah.

    Penutupan itu bermula hari ini sehingga berakhirnya tempoh Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan.

    UOB Malaysia berkata, penutupan cawangannya di Medan Pasar kerana berhampiran dengan kawasan Masjid India yang kini diletakkan di bawah Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan Diperketatkan (PKPD).

    Meskipun penutupan itu, para pelanggan masih boleh mengeluarkan wang tunai melalui mesin ATM, cek dan mesin deposit syiling mulai jam 8 pagi hingga 8 malam, kecuali di cawangannya di Medan Pasar.

  • ‘If ever there’s a time to borrow, now is it’

    For those worried about the debt involved, including some Coalition MPs, the Reserve Bank Governor offers some reassurance.

    Mr Lowe told Four Corners “we shouldn’t be worried” about the debt.

    “It’s the right thing to do… we have the capacity to borrow, our interest rates are as low as they’ve ever been, the Australian Government has a long record of responsible fiscal policy, so the budget accounts are in reasonable shape. And if ever there’s a time to borrow, now is it,” he said.

    There is, however, a gentle reminder to either side of politics who think they can avoid tough decisions in the future about this debt.

    “That debt will have to be repaid at some future point, and that will constrain our choices. So we’ll have to confront that,” he said.

    We still don’t know how much spending and therefore debt will be required to survive this crisis.

    The Prime Minister is also flagging a “pro-growth” strategy on the other side to help get the economy up and running again. In other words, confronting the debt burden won’t be the immediate priority.

    After stabilising the plane, those in the cockpit are now trying to work out how to land it.