作者： bankr

Citigroup said financial markets were “way ahead of reality” with tougher times to come, warning corporate clients that they should raise as much money as they could before the pandemic’s true cost is factored in by investors.

“We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldn’t get any better,” Manolo Falco, investment banking co-head at Citigroup, told the Financial Times.

“As the second quarter comes along and we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks.”

His comments came at the end of a week when stock markets largely rallied even as millions of businesses around the world remained shut and economies lurched towards their worst recessions in memory.

“Markets are pricing a V [shaped recovery], everyone’s coming back to work, and this is going to be fine,” Mr Falco said. “I don’t think it’s going to be that easy quite frankly.”

Investors’ optimism led highly rated companies to raise a record $1tn of debt in the first five months of the year, putting investment banks such as Mr Falco’s on course for a big jump in debt capital markets revenues in the second quarter of the year compared with 2019.

Mr Falco said the demand for funding could prove to be a “great opportunity” for Citi.

Last week senior executives at some of the biggest banks also predicted another strong quarter for trading. This was especially true at JPMorgan Chase, where investment bank boss Daniel Pinto said trading revenues in the second quarter could be up as much as 50 per cent compared with a year earlier.

Mr Falco was more circumspect on the prospect of a wave of activist investment in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. Low asset prices can tempt activist investors to buy into companies on the cheap and then look for ways to make them more profitable, often by cutting costs and jobs.

“You gotta be careful though because an activist can become very quickly a focus of governments if they really step in too hard at a time when people, what they want is to protect employment and to actually get things going in the economy,” Mr Falco said. “We’ve got to be careful because in some cases . . . maybe those [investments] are at the wrong time and could create a lot of anger.”

Malaysia’s three largest banks by assets face growing pressure on profitability from the coronavirus-led downturn, Moody’s Investors Service said.

This was because their asset quality was likely to deteriorate from 2021 as loan repayment moratoriums expire.

The three banks are Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), which is rated A3 stable by Moody’s, CIMB Group Holding Bhd (Baa1 stable) and Public Bank Bhd (A3 stable).

Moody’s latest assessment follows the release of the three banks’ first quarter results recently.

Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer Alka Anbarusa said a sharp increase in credit costs and contracting net interest margins (NIMs) would weigh on the profitability of all three banks this year.

“The impact on asset quality will become evident only from 2021 as a large share of loans will remain under moratoriums for most of the year,” said Anbarusa.

According to Moody’s, the impaired loans would increase as macroeconomic conditions weaken.

It said in the three months through the end of March, impaired loans ratios increased 36 basis points to 3.4 per cent at CIMB Group and 7.0 basis points to 2.7 per cent at Maybank.

This was largely driven by new impairments in Singapore and Indonesia.

By contrast, iasset quality at Public Bank, which is more focused on the Malaysian market, was more stable.

But Moody’s said that was also because about 80 per cent to 90 per cent of Public Bank’s loans were under loan repayment moratoriums.

“So far, at CIMB Group and Maybank too, about 45 per cent to 50 per cent of loans are under moratoriums.

“We expect domestic nonperforming loans (NPLs) will start increasing across the sector in 2021 after the moratoriums are lifted,” it said.

The firm said profitability would weaken as credit costs increase and NIMs contract.

It said increases in credit costs amid deteriorating asset quality and the contraction of NIMs as a result of policy rate cuts would weigh on profitability.

NIMs will contract at most banks in 2020 as policy rate cuts by the central bank lead to declines in lending rates.

“Strong loss absorbing buffers will help mitigate increases in asset risks.

“Ratios of loan loss reserves, including regulatory reserves, to impaired loans remained above 100 per cent at most banks at the end of March 2020,” it said.

Apart from that, it said capitalisation would remain stable as capital generation would outpace capital consumption due to weaker loan growth.

“Liquidity will remain strong, underpinned by deposit growth.

“The share of low-cost current and savings accounts (CASAs) in total deposit mixes increased 400 basis points at Maybank and 200 basis points at CIMB Group as these deposits grew faster than their normal pace,” it added.

外汇市场再次开始闪现货币战争的影子。越来越多声音开始警惕竞争性货币贬值这一风险。美国总统特朗普也提及负利率政策。如果启动着眼于新冠病毒后加快经济复苏的美元贬值政策，日元升值压力加强的可能性也无法否定。

美联储为迅速应对新型冠状病毒冲击，3月再次启动了雷曼危机时以来的零利率政策。但特朗普进入5月后，在推特上要求美联储引进负利率政策。由于新冠病毒冲击导致3月“动荡之际买美元”趋势加强等原因，特朗普再次将矛头对准了美联储。

对此，美联储主席鲍威尔表示“负利率并非适当的政策应对”，对特朗普筑起防火墙。此外，与因空前的股价走高而沸腾的去年不同，诱导美元贬值还存在导致投资资金外流的风险。

日美欧的中央银行一致认为要应对新冠病毒冲击，重要的并非降息，而是提供充裕的资金。日本银行和欧洲中央银行（ECB）并未加码负利率，而采用零利率政策的美联储也一直冻结负利率政策。

但是，情况稍微出现改变。最近美国股市因押注美国经济的触底而快速反弹。高科技股比率较高的纳斯达克综合指数似乎将创出最高点。

如果美国股价恢复强劲势头，为迎接被人认为陷入苦战的今年秋季的美国总统选举，特朗普重拾一年前的成功体验的可能性也将提高。在市场出现特朗普推动负利率的局面之际，本应从汇率影响因素中消失的利率差再次被关注、日美利率差缩小带来日元升值的预期浮现也不足为奇。

Bank Central Asia (BCA) has seen a jump in its digital banking transactions amid the COVID-19 pandemic as it works to ramp up its new digital banking arm.

BCA, the largest private bank in Indonesia, recorded a 91 percent annual rise in the number of mobile banking transactions to 1.29 billion, while the number of internet banking transactions increased by 24 percent year-on-year (yoy) to 740 million in the first quarter, company data show.

The total value of the transactions reached a staggering Rp 3.38 quadrillion (US$2.28 trillion), or more than 45 percent of the bank’s total transactions, almost matching the value of transactions via the bank’ branches of Rp 3.5 quadrillion.

“BCA supports the physical distancing policy during the COVID-19 pandemic through its Banking from Home campaign, in which we provide banking services through various online channels. We have seen an increase in mobile and internet banking transactions [during the period],” BCA president director Jahja Setiaatmadja said in a livestreamed press briefing on Wednesday.

Transactions via ATMs and branch offices, at the same time, were down by 1 percent and 5 percent, respectively. 

As a result, its non-interest income soared 25.5 percent yoy to Rp 5.9 trillion, while its net interest income jumped 14.1 percent to Rp 13.68 trillion during the first quarter. The bank reported that its net profit grew by 8.6 percent to Rp 6.58 trillion in this year’s first three months.

BCA is known for its technology and digital breakthroughs in Indonesia’s banking industry. It is now working to complete the acquisitions of privately-owned Rabobank International Indonesia and Bank Royal Indonesia. The latter is projected to become BCA’s digital bank, namely Bank Digital BCA, the soft launching of which is to be held in the second half.

“Bank Royal still needs [the authority’s] approval to be a digital bank, while the acquisition of Rabobank is still being completed,” he said, stressing that BCA currently had no plan to acquire other banks.

BCA concluded in 2019 its acquisition of Bank Royal for Rp 1.01 trillion in an effort to expand its digital banking business and focus on certain customer segments.

BCA reported on Wednesday that its loan disbursement grew 12.3 percent annually to Rp 612.16 trillion as of March, while third-party funds (DPK) added 16.8 percent to Rp 741.02 trillion. Its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.6 percent, slightly up by 10 basis points (bps) compared to the corresponding period last year.

Jahja admitted that his company had seen a downturn in consumer loans, as mortgages, vehicle loans, credit card and employee loans decreased, and the situation would most likely continue.

The coronavirus outbreak has disrupted Indonesia’s banking industry as various businesses were forced to shut due to slowing demand, while millions of people are out of work, slowing loan disbursement and jeopardizing credit repayments.

Financial Services Authority (OJK) data reveal that loan growth stood at 7.95 percent yoy in the first quarter, higher than the 6.08 percent recorded at the end of last year. However, no new loan demand was recorded in the period, as the growth came from the disbursement of existing credit facilities.

“It is not the right time to push for consumer credits, especially with customer’s dwindling purchasing power and a significant amount of loans being restructured recently,” Jahja said.

BCA as of mid-March has been processing loan restructuring worth between Rp 65 trillion and Rp 82.6 trillion, or 10 percent to 14 percent of its total loan portfolio, from around 72,000 debtors following the government’s stimulus to support businesspeople and consumers affected by the pandemic.

It expects the restructuring figure to increase to around 20 percent to 30 percent of its total loan in the next few months.

“BCA has relatively little loan outstanding that is directly linked to COVID-19,” Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia analyst Lee Young-jun wrote in a research note published on April 2.

“In addition, BCA revealed that it has less than 5 percent exposure on foreign exchange loans and less than 1 percent of capital in net open foreign position,” Lee said. 

BCA’s shares, traded at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) under the code BBCA, were up 6.65 percent on Thursday, handily outperforming the exchange’s main gauge, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which was up 1.61 percent.

Reserve Bank of India on Thursday imposed a penalty of Rs 5 crore on the Bank of India for non-compliance with the national bank’s previous directions.

Earlier, the RBI had found Bank of India guilty as the result of a statutory inspection with respect to its financial position as on March 31, 2017 and March, 2018. India’ national bank has now stated that the Bank of India flouted RBI’s norms surrounding risk assessment reports.

A showcause notice had been served to Bank of India by the RBI, seeking reasons why a monetary penalty should not be imposed. The bank responded, however, RBI did not find its response satisfactory.

In addition, two other banks, namely Karnataka Bank Ltd, and Saraswat Cooperative Bank have also been slapped with penalties. While Karnataka Bank Ltd faces a penalty of Rs 1.20 crore, a penalty of Rs 30 lakh has been imposed on Saraswat Cooperative Bank.

Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) aims to produce over 110,000 handwoven face masks to help limit the spread of Covid-19 in the region under its Women Eco Weavers programme in collaboration with Colorsilk.

Maybank said some 250 women weavers in Cambodia under this programme would produce hand woven face masks made of pure cotton and silk in support of easing the pressure on the demand for surgical masks.

It said the face masks are primarily reserved for medical professionals and health care workers as well as to counter the increase in price of face masks within the region.

“To date, over 15,000 handwoven masks have been produced by the weavers, whereby 12,000 have been sold and 2,000 were donated to communities in Cambodia,” it said.

In Cambodia, a single-use surgical mask could easily cost as high as US$1 per piece in a country where a large percentage of people live below the poverty line and earn between US$1.25 to US$2.00 per day.

The three-ply handwoven cotton masks can be cleaned, reused and cost a minimum of US$0.65 and the silk woven masks are priced at US$1.50 per piece.

The masks come in both plain and a striped pattern known as Kroma which is unique to the Cambodian silk-weaving heritage.

Maybank Foundation chief executive officer Shahril Azuar Jimin said amidst the difficult times, it was heartening to see the weavers doing their part to contain the spread of the virus by producing these handcrafted face masks.

“This momentous effort by them goes to show that any one be it old, young, rich or poor can do their part to help each other in times of crisis.

“It is also inspiring to see the impact of our investments in collective solutions for the communities we serve,” said Shahril.

According to Maybank, the majority of the weavers were graduates and trainees of the Maybank Women Eco-Weavers programme.

It is a Maybank Foundation flagship programme that promotes traditional textile globally, in a sustainable manner whilst creating economic independence and financial inclusion for women weavers across the Asean region.

It said the face mask initiative also provides supplementary economic opportunities for the weavers and Cambodia’s weaving communities in an effort to ensure fair pricing and protect the welfare of the people.

“From this initiative alone, the weavers are earning between US$200 and US$350 per month. The weavers are also currently receiving orders from countries such as Japan, Indonesia, the US and Taiwan,” it said.

A graduate trainee of the Maybank Women Eco-Weavers programme, Touch Eng said she used to earn less than US$30 as a farmer while others made more working at factories.

“Since I participated in the face mask project, I am thankful that I am able to earn between US$250 and US$280 and to also support my country in combating the spread of the virus,” Eng said.

经济学人智库发表报告称，新冠病毒疫情大流行改变了全球经济，各国政府需要做出巨大努力，这将导致公共开支增加，因此今年公共债务水平也将会急升。报告相信，虽然大多数发达国家将不会面临主权债务问题，但贫穷国家在债务上升且缺乏全面减债计划情况下，纵使今年未必会发生主权债违约，但中期内则可能出现。

经济学人智库发表题为《Sovereign debt crises are coming》（主权债务危机即将来临）的报告称，因新冠疫情大流行改变全球经济格局，今、明两年将不会出现增长，其预计全球GDP到2022年才可回复到疫情爆发前的水平。各国需要在财政上作出巨大努力，因财政收入减少，但在医疗保健及社会开支方面则要高得多。因此，今年的公共债务水平将会急升。

报告指出，为了压抑财政赤字，大多数发达国家政府将无法削减开支，而紧缩政策会削弱政治资本。不少经济体的公共部门规模已比2008-09年金融危机前为小，而削减医疗保健开支的可能性也不大，因为疫情大流行暴露了紧缩措施导致卫生系统承压。

报告称，尽管对大多数发达国家而言将不会面临主权债务问题，尤其是那些能以本国货币借款及具备深厚国内资本市场的国家，但并非所有国家都具备这些有利条件。从中期来看，仍会有部分发达国家有可能陷入债务危机的边缘。报告指，例如意大利及西班牙在疫情前，其财政状况已然疲弱；南欧国家则仍自多年的紧缩中恢复，且公共债务高企、人口老化和财政赤字持续。倘任何一个这些国家发生债务危机，都会对金融市场造成巨大震荡，危机并将迅速蔓延至全球。

经济学人智库表示，在此情况下，较贫穷的国家将是受影响力最严重的国家，它们的债务在过去10年急升。多边金融机构与世界上最富裕的国家联手提供实质财政支持，以助减轻低收入和新兴市场经济体的财政负担。国际货币基金组织，世界银行和其他多边开发银行亦已增加紧急资金的支持，二十国集团（G20）通过暂停要求还债提供大量财政支持。这些努力将为世界上较贫穷的国家提供短期喘息空间。

不过，报告指这些措施提供的大多数新资金将会添加到新兴经济体的资产负债表中，而G20的债务援助只是将债务延长而非撇帐。在缺乏更全面的减债计划的情况下，这将引起人们对其偿债能力的担忧。主权违约未必会在今年发生，但中期可能会在贫穷国家中出现。

日本央行周三公布的数据显示，在实施大规模的刺激经济措施之后，该行3月为止的公债持有量几乎相当于国内经济规模的90%。

日央行债券持仓规模凸显出其印钞规模有多么庞大，印钞是为了重振经济，并让通胀达成一直遥不可及的2%目标。

在3月止的财年内，日本央行持有的外币资产规模也增加近三倍，因该行扩大美元融资操作，以应对新冠病毒疫情引发的紧张市况。

根据日本央行上一财年的财报，央行截止3月的公债持仓较上年同期增长3.4%至486万亿日圆(4.5万亿美元)，大约相当于该国经济规模的90%。

继日本央行4月承诺无限量购买公债以抗击疫情冲击后，本财年的购债速度可能加快。

日本央行的获利报告还显示，央行持有的上市交易基金(ETF)潜在获利缩小至2011财年以来最低。

日本央行估算，如果日经指数跌破18,500点，其ETF持仓将产生亏损。周三收盘时日经指数报21,419.23点。