Mr.Bank

作者： bankr

  • 中国影子信贷两年半来首次增长

    评级机构穆迪周三发表的报告称，今年首季中国内地广义影子信贷录得两年半以来首次增长，而以调整后社会融资总量占名义GDP比重衡量的总体经济杠杆也大幅上升。

    报告称，今年首季广义影子银行资产增加了1,000亿元人民币，主要因资产管理业务增加带动。尽管增长温和，但却是两年半以来首次增长，而去年影子银行资产减少了2.3万亿元。再加上新冠病毒疫情导致经济收缩的影响，广义影子银行资产占名义GDP的比重从2019年底的59.5%升至今年首季的60.3%。

    “由于监管部门放松货币和信贷政策以支持中国经济复苏，我们预计未来数月杠杆率仍将继续上升，不过总体升幅有限，因为政府仍注重金融稳定性。”穆迪董事总经理/亚太区首席信用总监Michael Taylor表示。

    穆迪副总裁/高级信用评级主任李秀军表示，基建贷款的增长扭转了此前信托贷款下滑的局面。第一季度向地方政府融资平台投放的信托贷款也有所反弹，反映出平台公司牵头的基建项目获得了政策支持。

    今年首五个月净信托流入减少了440亿元，相比前五个月(去年8-12月)累计下跌3,720亿元为少，要因针对基建板块的信托贷款于首季扩张，并超过该板块去年全年的信托贷款总额。

    此外，因货币政策环境的放松，小银行通过向非银行金融机构提供融资来改善贷款收益率，银行与非银行金融机构之间的相互关联性也呈现出过去12个月以来首次上升趋势。

    穆迪指，受疫情相关的不确定性影响，流动性更好的资产越发受到投资者的欢迎，例如货币市场基金和短期理财产品等。2020年第一季度，货币市场基金的资产管理规模在持续一年的缩减之后恢复增长。

  • How banks are planning to bring staff back to the office

    Before the first wave of staff returned to Credit Suisse’s Paradeplatz head office this month, the financial institution supplied free antibody checks so workers would have a “greater degree of certainty” about whether or not they had already had Covid-19.

    While Credit Suisse is contemplating increasing the programme globally, Goldman Sachs and UBS have each determined in opposition to it for now, aware that outcomes will be ambiguous and that individuals who check constructive may very well be extra careless about an infection management.

    Other huge banks similar to JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup have but to make up their minds.

    Credit Suisse is probably in a extra handy place to supply checks — deputy chairman Severin Schwan is chief government of Roche, which makes considered one of solely three checks deemed dependable. But this broadly diverging strategy to antibody testing is only one instance of the other ways banks are tackling the mammoth process of bringing staff back into places of work from London to New York, Frankfurt and Paris.

    In a sequence of interviews with the Financial Times, executives described completely different methods on every thing from how to transfer staff to and from the office, to supplying private protecting gear, managing how workers transfer round in the office and rotating groups.

    Philosophically, I feel it is necessary to [return to office]. We are going to assist the financial system normalise, so we as an establishment want to get back to normality as nicely

    How lifts can be utilized safely has emerged as a very vexing downside inside the constructing, whereas few managers anticipate workers to really feel assured sufficient to restart every day commutes earlier than a vaccine is discovered.

    “This is going to cause a seismic shift in how all office-based organisations approach the workplace,” stated Charlie Netherton, head of consumer advisory companies for the UK and Ireland at Marsh. “No one was prepared for such a rapid shock and transition to the future.”

    Banks even have very completely different views on the long-term implications for working life after lockdown ends. A senior government at a significant European lender spoke enthusiastically about saving $100m or extra a 12 months on journey and leisure bills, which have plunged virtually 90 per cent throughout the disaster to between $3m and $5m a month from $25m.

    He stated worldwide journey for inside conferences may all however disappear, now that individuals have tailored to video calls.

    Wall Street bankers are much less optimistic about bills cuts, as a result of financial savings may very well be offset by new bills similar to paying worker residence working prices, supplying PPE and better property prices if staff have to work a metre or extra aside.

    In London, many banks kicked off the first part of their plans on June 15, when the authorities allowed “non-essential” companies to reopen. HSBC, which is sort of back to regular in Hong Kong and Shanghai, has informed UK staff it’ll begin repopulating its 45-floor Canary Wharf tower from July 1.A social-distancing ground marker in an ABN Amro carry © Bloomberg

    For the first three months, it expects solely 10-20 per cent capability so as to preserve social distancing. Those engaged on the buying and selling ground shall be amongst the first to return.

    “Philosophically, I think it is important to [return to office],” one HSBC government stated. “We are going to help the economy normalise, so we as an institution need to get back to normality as well.”

    British lender Lloyds will retain a skeleton staff of lower than 10 per cent in its two London places of work till September, stated an individual briefed on its plans. It anticipates it is going to be simpler to bring individuals back to its nine-storey Gresham Street office than its different London Wall constructing, which has twice as many flooring.

    Across Europe, UBS is bringing back merchants, threat managers and bankers engaged on stay offers first, however different staff will proceed at residence so long as doable.

  • Is this stock market bubble ‘the real McCoy’

    Renowned investor Jeremy Grantham recently warned that the US stock market rally amid the coronavirus crisis is a sign of a ‘real McCoy’ bubble that could eventually hurt many people.

    “A bubble is just simply when higher prices create higher prices. So we’re in a bubble in the sense that we’ve never had Fed money, we’ve never had $1,200 checks sent to people,” Smith said.

    However, he believes that we are currently facing “an event-driven bear market,” which has multiple precedents throughout history.

    “The market is not disrupted from reality… the market is doing exactly what the market has done for 200 years,” he continued. He added that the stock market is not today’s economy, but that it values up to 24 months in the future, and the rally simply shows that investors are betting on a sharp recovery.

  • Global trade faces worst plunge on record, but ‘it could have been much worse’ – WTO

    The Covid-19 outbreak is set to drive global trade down by 18.5 percent in the second quarter of 2020, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast. Despite being the steepest fall ever, it is above the WTO’s worst predictions.

    The trade body’s figures show that global merchandise trade shed three percent year-on-year in the first three months of 2020, but the virus-related measures exacerbated the situation.

    “Initial estimates for the second quarter, when the virus and associated lockdown measures affected a large share of the global population, indicate a year-on-year drop of around 18.5%,” the WTO said in a report released on Tuesday.

    The WTO’s annual trade forecast in April set out two possible outcomes of the current crisis. According to the pessimistic one, trade could nosedive by 32 percent, while the best scenario would be a 13-percent fall. The organization now says that rapid government responses helped temper the contractions, and the pessimistic scenario appears less likely.

    “The fall in trade we are now seeing is historically large – in fact, it would be the steepest on record. But there is an important silver lining here: it could have been much worse,” said Director‑General Roberto Azevedo. “This is genuinely positive news, but we cannot afford to be complacent.”

    Despite governments managing to react to the current crisis quicker than they did in 2008-2009, the outlook for the global economy over the next two years is still highly uncertain, according to the WTO. The uncertainties are driven by the possibility of a second wave of the coronavirus and related restrictions, as well as widespread recourse to trade restrictions.

    The pace of economic recovery would further affect trade growth, the WTO says. In the event of a quick return to the pre-pandemic trajectory, global trade could expand around 20 percent, while a rise in infections may leave it short of the pre-crisis trend, with trade recovering only by five percent.

  • CBI books Videocon’s Venugopal Dhoot for cheating banks of millions

    The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has filed an FIR against Videocon’s Chief Managing Director Venugopal Dhoot for defrauding a consortium of banks led by the State Bank of India. Dhoot is already being probed by the CBI in connection with defrauding ICICI Bank allegedly with the help of former CEO of ICICI Bank Chanda Kochhar and her husband Deepak Kochhar.

    The fresh FIR against Venugopal Dhoot has been lodged after the federal probe agency conducted a preliminary inquiry against unknown officials of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, ONGC Videsh, Oil India Limited, Bharat Petro Resources Ltd (a subsidiary of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited) and the consortium of banks (SBI, IDBI and ICICI Bank Ltd).

    The inquiry also included directors and promoters of Videocon Mozambique Rovuma Limited (VMRL), a subsidiary of Videocon Hydrocarbons Holding Limited (VHHL) registered in the Cayman Islands.

    “Inquiry revealed that the firms associated with Videocon colluded with the consortium of banks for undue gains causing loss to the banks,” said a CBI source.

    According to the probe report, the ONGC Videsh Limited and Oil India Limited had acquired the Mozambique asset of Videocon in January 2014 for USD 2519 million. Venugopal Dhoot is the Chairman and Managing Director of M/S Videocon Industries Limited and Videocon Hydrocarbon Holding Limited which deals with Oil and Gas Business.

    In April, 2012, the consortium of banks, led by State Bank of India, sanctioned the Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC) facility of USD 2773.60 million to Videocon Hydrocarbons Holding Ltd (VHHL) for appraisal and development of their overseas oil and gas asset in Mozambique, Brazil and Indonesia and other funding requirements in relation to the oil and gas assets and for refinancing the existing facilities.

    The standby letter of credit facility of USD 1103 million was refinanced, which included outstanding of USD 400 million of Standard Chartered Bank (SCB), London.

    “The first charge on VIL’s oil and gas asset was a part of SCB’s security,” the FIR said.

    However, in February 2013, VIL told the consortium that SCB loan has increased to USD 530 million and requested to pay it and take over charge of oil and gas assets. The amount was approved by the consortium of banks without any verification or inquiry, which is not the usual practice.

    After the payment, the consortium should have taken the charge on the gas and oil assets of VIL and the loan account of SCB should have been closed by VHHL. But neither the consortium created a charge on the oil and gas assets nor it closed the loan account with SCB, revealed the CBI inquiry.

    Videocon, according to the CBI, also never informed the consortium that it continued to avail loan from SCB and the lenders also did not ask for NoC from SCB about the closure.

  • Global economy limps back to health, recovery long & bumpy: Moody’s

    The second quarter (Q2) of 2020 will go down in history as the worst quarter for the global economy since at least World War II, Moody’s Investors Service said.

    Moody’s continues to expect a gradual recovery beginning in the second half of the year, but that outcome will depend on whether governments can reopen their economies while also safeguarding public health.

    “A rebound in demand will determine the ability of businesses and labour markets to recover from the shock,” the rating agency said today.

    Moody’s said the effects of lockdowns on Q2 activity would be larger than previously thought.

    “Incoming data show the extent of coronavirus-related disruption in Q1 and Q2.”

    As a result, the firm revised down its 2020 growth forecasts for Germany (Aaa stable), France (Aa2 stable), Italy (Baa3 stable), the UK (Aa2 negative), Canada (Aaa stable), Brazil (Ba2 stable), India (Baa3 negative), Indonesia (Baa2 stable), Saudi Arabia (A1 negative) and Argentina (Ca negative).

    It expects G-20 economies to contract by 4.6 per cent in 2020 as a whole, followed by 5.2 per cent growth in 2021.

    “We expect G-20 advanced economies collectively to contract 6.4 per cent in 2020 before growing at 4.8 per cent in 2021.

    “G-20 emerging markets will collectively contract 1.6 per cent in 2020, followed by 5.9 per cent growth in 2021. However, excluding China (A1 stable), the G-20 emerging markets will contract 4.7 per cent in 2020, followed by 4.3 per cent growth in 2021.”

    Moody’s said differences in scale and composition of policy support across countries would result in uneven recoveries.

    “Effectiveness of support will depend not only on the size of support packages but also the type of support implemented and the take-up of liquidity measures.

    “Direct expenditure support and forbearance for businesses are meant to keep them from permanently closing.”

    Other measures are in the form of equity injections and credit guarantees, which remove some planning uncertainty for businesses.

    Financial markets, the firm said, had mostly recovered, but risks of disruption were high.

    “Financial risks will intensify in the event of an unchecked resurgence in infections which necessitates a renewal of widespread closures.

    “In addition, inadequate or premature removal of policy support poses financial stability risks,” it added.

  • Bond market still on bearish run

    RAM Ratings Services Bhd expects Malaysia’s bond market to continue its bearish run over concerns on escalating Covid-19 outbreak in the US and wider fiscal deficit and debt levels over the government’s Penjana stimulus package.

    The rating agency said the concerns had pushed up the 10-year Malaysia Government Securities (MGS) yield by 25.5 basis points to a peak of 3.12 per cent on June 9, before swiftly retreating below 3.0 per cent.

    This is despite foreign interest returned to the Malaysian bond market in May after three consecutive months of net outflows totalling RM22.4 billion, supported by a more upbeat global sentiment.

    Since then, RAM said, the benchmark yield had stayed above the level seen throughout May, with average yield of 2.89 per cent, on account of persistent foreign investor risk aversion.

    “This trend suggests that foreign buying of MGS is likely to remain dull for the rest of June,” it said in a statement.

    It said over the longer term, all-time low global interest rates amid liquidity-boosting measures by central banks would continue to suppress domestic bond yields.

    “At its last Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 10, the US Federal Reserve indicated that the benchmark short-term interest rate will remain near zero through 2022,” it said.

    RAM said similarly, expectations of further Overnight Policy Rate cuts by Bank Negara Malaysia in the second half 2020 would also keep a lid on domestic bond yields.

    The firm said the Penjana stimulus package, launched in June, was expected to widen Malaysia’s fiscal deficit to 5.8-6.0 per cent of gross domestic product, from its previous projection of 4.8 per cent.

    Given the government’s intention to fund this deficit domestically, RAM revised its MGS/GII issuance upward to RM155 billion-RM165 billion for 2020, from the previous RM135 billion-RM145 billion.

  • 新冠疫情对富裕国家财政的破坏程度几乎为金融危机的两倍

    信用评级机构穆迪周一表示，今年新冠疫情将把全球最富裕国家的负债比率平均提高近20个百分点，破坏程度几乎是金融危机期间的将近两倍。

    穆迪的这份报告考察了从美国和日本到意大利和英国等14个国家，评估了新冠疫情导致的经济放缓会给财政造成的伤害程度。

    “我们估计这些国家中，政府债务/GDP比率平均会上升约19个百分点，几乎多达2009年金融危机期间的两倍。”

    “与全球金融危机期间相比，这次债务负担的上升将更加直接和普遍，反映了新冠病毒疫情冲击的严重程度和广度。”

    预计意大利、日本和英国的债务升幅将最大，相当于各自GDP的25个百分点左右，而美国、法国、西班牙、加拿大和新西兰的增幅将达到约20个百分点。

    英国上周公布数据显示，5月公共部门净借款创下天量纪录，公共部门债务与经济产出之比超越100%。

    穆迪表示，如果不能把债务水平降下来，将使得信用状况较弱的国家更难以承受未来的经济或金融冲击，主权信用评等也可能下调。

    “评级影响将取决于政府在潜在的未来冲击之前扭转债务轨迹的能力，”穆迪报告表示。

    “意大利和日本将特别取决于增长趋势，因为缩小债务和维持比冲击以前更强劲的财务状况的空间是有限的。”

  • Wirecard’s missing money didn’t enter Philippine financial system, central bank says

    None of the US$2.1 billion missing from scandal-hit German payments firm Wirecard AG appears to have entered the Philippine financial system, the central bank said on Sunday.

    Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Benjamin Diokno said in a statement the Southeast Asian country’s biggest lenders, BDO Unibank and Bank of the Philippine Islands, suffered no losses, despite having been named in connection with the missing funds.

    The chief executive of Wirecard, Markus Braun, who built the company into one of the hottest financial technology investments in Europe and a rare tech champion for Germany, quit on Friday as the company faces a cash crunch after saying it may have been the victim of fraud.

    The search for the missing cash hit a dead end in the Philippines, but the two Philippine banks have said documents purporting to show Wirecard had deposited funds with them were false.

    “The initial report is that no money entered the Philippines and that there is no loss to both banks,” Diokno said, though he added that the central bank was investigating.

    “The international financial scandal used the names of two of the country’s biggest banks — BDO and BPI — in an attempt to cover the perpetrators’ track,” he said.

    BDO and BPI have stated that Wirecard was not their client and that they had no business relationship with the German firm, Diokno said.

    BPI, however, told Reuters on Saturday that it had suspended an assistant manager whose signature appeared on one of the fraudulent documents.

    BDO told the central bank that it appeared one of its marketing officers had fabricated a bank certificate.

    Diokno reiterated the Philippine banking system was in a strong position going into the coronavirus pandemic and well-capitalised.

  • Govt plans stimulus payments for 5.4M households

    The government will give K20,000 in stimulus money to each of 5.4 million households across the country to counter the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, a government spokesperson said.

    U Zaw Htay, spokesperson of the President’s Office, said his office will seek the permission of others agencies to make the payments.

    “We have to submit it to the economic committee and we need the permission of the Myanmar government,” he said. “It will be completed in one or two weeks.”

    Tens of thousands of Myanmar workers lost their jobs when factories closed due to shortages of raw materials and cancelled orders due to the economic slowdown triggered by the disease.

    Also, hundreds of thousands of local farmers were not able to export their produce due to the closing of borders and slowdown in local markets.

    U Myint Than, director general of the General Administration Department, said earlier the government will enlist the help of digital payment service providers to deliver the stimulus payments in hard-to-reach areas.

    The mobile payment system will be first be tried out in Pobbathiri township in Nay Pyi Taw, Meikhtila township in Mandalay, and Kalaw township in Shan State.

    People in other townships can collect the aid from their village or ward administrators.

    Myanmar has 287 cases of COVID-19, six deaths and 196 recoveries so far.