Mr.Bank

作者： bankr

  • 新兴国面临美元短缺的考验

    新兴国面临美元短缺的考验

    新冠疫情持续扩大的新兴市场国家正在面临美元短缺的考验。这些国家因出口和游客锐减而赚不到外汇，而且货币贬值导致对外债务的负担加重。国际性的美元安全网很难说稳固，对于能否长期承受经济停滞的警惕感正在加强。

     

    埃及政府最近宣布向游客开放主要的古迹，包括吉萨金字塔和卢克索博物馆等。此前曾有过在7月1日机场解封后仅限度假区等接纳游客的方案，而现在则是下调门票价格，希望增加游客。

     

    埃及的旅游业占国内生产总值（GDP）的11％，是赚取外汇的重要手段。疫情导致游客流失，收入中断，外汇储备在3月以后减少了2成。在每天新增感染者仍然高达顶峰的约9成的情况下，埃及正在加强经济重启脚步。

     

     

    今年，作为“赚取外汇能力”的经常收支在新兴市场国家恶化。据国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，不含中国的新兴市场国家（141个）的经常赤字预计合计占到GDP的2％，创出2001年以后的最高。

     

    在巴西，原油和汽车等的出口锐减。大豆和食用肉类的主要出口目的地中国要求提交显示是否感染的安全性证明，疫情也在拉低出口。南非也面临资源价格走低的重负。

     

     

    外汇储备可以说是国家信用等级指标，其中美元占6成以上，新兴市场国家的储备正在减少。从不包括中国的32个新兴市场国家的外汇储备（不含黄金）来看，今年截至4月底减少500亿美元，降至2.8万亿美元。此前随着新兴市场国家的经济增长，外汇储备以每年10％左右的速度增加，但今年按年率换算减少1500亿美元，降幅创出过去20年的最大。

    按国别来看，32个国家中的20国外汇储备减少，土耳其减少270亿美元，数额最大。土耳其的中央银行采取了通过从民营银行取得美元等外汇加以补充的罕见措施。土耳其的外汇储备约为500亿美元，低于短期对外债务，处于被视为不适当的水平。

     

    由于大型的财政和货币政策，市场正在恢复平稳。不过，进出新兴市场国家的资金比过去有所膨胀，如果投资者采取避险行动，这些国家的货币会很快贬值。在截至5月中旬的3个月里，巴西、土耳其和南非的货币兑美元贬值2~3成，以本国货币换算的美元计价债务负担增加。

     

     

    美元的安全网并不牢固。美国联邦储备委员会（FRB）通过与各国央行的货币互换来供应美元，但纳入对象的新兴市场国家仅为巴西和墨西哥。与美国关系较差的土耳其央行和美联储的谈判以失败而告终。埃及则依赖IMF的支援。

    成为最后贷款方的IMF于4月新设了“短期流动性额度”，但对象仅限财政健全国家，目前还没有国家使用这一额度。向约70国供给的紧急贷款额度很小，每个国家仅为约3亿美元。IMF约1万亿美元的资金量中有一半在使用时需要成员国的批准，如果要增加整体金额，将成为各国的政治问题。此前就一直被指缺乏通过迅速融资来预防危机的能力和规模，比如二十国集团（G20）的专家会议指出“应自己通过市场筹集资金”。

     

    新兴市场国家在2021年底前需要偿还的美元计价债务达到7200亿美元（不含中国的29个主要国家）。如果发生债务危机，“还将波及作为土耳其和中南美的最大贷款方的欧洲金融机构”（日本瑞穗综合研究所）。日本也在对南非的海外信贷中占2成，不能隔岸观火。国际社会的支援跟不上，危机从新兴市场国家扩大至全世界的路径并未被切断。

  • Fed revisits idea of pledging to keep interest rates low

    Federal Reserve policymakers are looking at reviving a Great Recession-era promise to keep interest rates low until certain conditions are met, in a bid to deliver a more rapid recovery from the recession triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.

    The policymakers “generally indicated support” for tying rate-setting policy to specific economic outcomes, minutes from the US central bank’s June 9-10 policy meeting showed on Wednesday. “A number” favored a promise to leave rates low until inflation meets or even modestly exceeds the Fed’s 2 percent goal.

    A couple of policymakers preferred tying changes to rates to a specific unemployment rate; a “few others” wanted to promise easy monetary policy until a specific date in the future – an approach the Fed used effectively in 2012 and 2013.

    Although two warned of the danger of adopting any such policy, citing financial stability risks, the minutes showed that policymakers overall supported giving the public more explicit forward guidance, both for rates and bond purchases, “as more information about the trajectory of the economy becomes available.”

    The readout showed much less support, and many questions, about alternate forms of support including control of the yield curve, a strategy in use by other central banks around the world.

    Fed officials anticipate the United States will suffer the worst economic downturn since World War Two, and they have no intent to let up on providing stimulus for the foreseeable future.

    “Members noted that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the (rate-setting) Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals,” the Fed said in the minutes.

    The US dollar slightly extended losses against the yen and euro while the S&P 500 index edged higher after the release of the minutes.

  • New Hong Kong virtual lender Ping An OneConnect, HSBC ease banking processes in battle for SME sector

    • Ping An OneConnect allows SME owners to open corporate bank accounts within a day through its mobile app
    • HSBC starts allowing small businesses to open accounts without any face-to-face meetings at a branch, or submission of documents and signatures

    Hong Kong’s small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have emerged as a new battleground for the city’s banking sector, which has been revitalised by the launch of virtual lenders that do not have any bricks-and-mortar branches.

    One of these new banks, Ping An OneConnect Bank, and HSBC, Hong Kong’s largest bank, last week started easing the process through which SMEs can open accounts.

    Ping An OneConnect, which is backed by Ping An Insurance, mainland China’s largest insurer, allowed SME owners to open corporate bank accounts within a day through its mobile app. It also promised to approve loans worth up to HK$2 million (US$258,050) within five business days. If it misses this deadline, it will pay the company HK$1,000 as cash compensation.

    “We aim to serve the hundreds of thousands of SMEs and micro companies in Hong Kong that have long been ignored by the big banks. By adopting advanced technology, we can offer these small trading companies trade financing and other types of loans in a speedy manner,” Ryan Fung Yuk-lung, Ping An OneConnect’s chief executive, said in an interview

    The move by Ping An OneConnect to simplify account opening and shorten loan approval processes for SMEs suggests the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the city’s de facto central bank, has succeeded in bringing new competition to Hong Kong’s banking sector and revitalising it by issuing eight virtual banking licences last year. Seven of these virtual lenders have either carried out soft launches, or are fully operational.

    HSBC, which has been in Hong Kong for 155 years and did not opt for a virtual banking licence, and decided to upgrade its digital banking services to compete, last week started allowing small businesses to open accounts without any face-to-face meetings at a branch, or the submission of actual documents and signatures. It will take two to five days to activate such accounts.

    “The introduction of virtual banks has added competition, and will pressure traditional banks into introducing more digital services for individuals and companies,” said Gordon Tsui Luen-on, chairman of the Hong Kong Securities Association.
    The HKMA has introduced a number of measures recently to support the city’s 340,000 SMEs during Hong Kong’s worst financial crisis on record, including ordering all banks to provide a six-month repayment holiday starting in May.

  • 美联储戴利称即便在最佳假设情境下经济仍需四五年才能恢复

    美联储戴利称即便在最佳假设情境下经济仍需四五年才能恢复

    旧金山联邦储备银行总裁戴利(Mary Daly)周三为美国经济前景描绘了一幅黯淡的画面。她说，即使按照她的最佳情境假设，年底的失业率仍将超过10%，四五年内都不会回到危机前的水平。

    “如果我们能够通过真正强有力的缓解策略或疫苗来使公共卫生问题得到控制，那么我们就可以很快地重新参与经济活动，”戴利在参加《华盛顿邮报》直播平台的一个节目时表示，“那样可能只需要四年或五年；但如果最终经济遭受了广泛而持久的打击，那么可能需要更长的时间。”

    美国劳工部将于周四公布6月失业率，经济学家预计，随着这个全球最大经济体进一步重启，6月的失业率将从5月份的13.3%降至12.3%。

    在大萧条期间，美国的月失业率从未超过10%，而在2020年2月，在为减缓病毒传播而大规模关闭经济活动之前，失业率为3.5%。

    最近几周，加州、亚利桑那州、得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州的感染病例迅速增加，使得全国平均每天新增病例达到4万例，这些州的州长已经采取了一些措施，重新限制经济活动，以遏制疫情的蔓延。

    美国传染性疾病首席专家福奇周二对议员们表示，如果目前的趋势继续下去，美国每天可能出现10万新病例。

    戴利说，到目前为止，“判断”是会出现她的最佳假设情境，还是会出现更糟的情境“为时过早”。

    “在接下来的几个月里，我们将获得更多信息，了解病毒将会给我们经济造成怎样的影响，”她说。

  • Shopee, Maybank and Visa to introduce e-commerce credit card

    Shopee has formed a partnership with Malayan Banking Bhd and Visa to introduce a lifestyle and e-commerce Platinum card, the Maybank Shopee Credit Card.

    Shopee said the launch came at a time when more Malaysians were turning to e-commerce to get their essentials, with consumers spending an average of 20 per cent more time on Shopee a week.

    Users of the new card will be rewarded with Shopee Coins for all their spend be it online or offline and anytime or anywhere.

    Cardholders will also earn more rewards when they spend during Shopee’s selected campaigns and on the 28th of every month.

    The accumulated Shopee Coins enable users to offset future purchases on the platform, and redeem vouchers including food and beverage (F&B) and services from the Daily Coins Rewards feature on the app.

    Moreover, earnings beyond 5,000 Shopee Coins each month will be rewarded in the form of Maybank TreatsPoints which cardholders can use to redeem gifts from Maybank.

    Shopee regional managing director Ian Ho said the collaboration was intended to help Malaysians with rising cost of living amid the socio-economic pressures brought about by Covid-19.

    Maybank community financial services group chief executive officer Datuk John Chong said the bank constantly seeks out opportunities to expand its diverse offerings and privileges to meet customers’ evolving lifestyle.

    He said between 2017 and 2019, Maybank had seen a 43 per cent jump in its card billings for e-commerce platforms which indicates a significant shift towards online shopping.

    “This partnership with Shopee will allow us to create value for our customers, tap into Malaysians’ e-commerce spending growth and thus give us a competitive advantage to further strengthen our leadership in the cards business.

  • Myanmar local banks launch debit, credit cards to drive cashless push

    The Myanmar Citizens Bank will introduce a co-branded debit card service together with the Myanmar Payment Union (MPU) and Japanese payment services provider JCB, the bank announced over the weekend.

    MCB’s MPU-JCB Co-Brand Debit Card will enable holders to access MPU’s merchant network across Myanmar and make withdrawals at MCB ATMs, other ATMs which accept the MPU/JCB logo and ATMs which accept the JCB logo in other countries. It can also be used in making payments via point-of-sale (POS) machines at local and international sales counters as well as make payments and top-ups online.

    Cardholders will be able to withdraw cash of up to K300,000 at a time and up to K1 million per day at any ATM. Local online payments of up to K5 million per day via POS will be allowed while overseas payments utilising the cardholder’s bank account balance will also be enabled.

    The aim is to contribute towards expanding the cashless economy in Myanmar, said Mr Takeshi Fujii, chief representative from the Yangon Branch of JCB International (Thailand).

    This comes a week after Yoma Bank entered into a partnership with Mastercard on June 18 in a move that will “enable the bank to substantially expand its digital offerings and accelerate the advancement of Myanmar’s digital economy,” Yoma Bank said in its announcement.

    “The partnership will also support Yoma Bank’s core strength of being the bank for businesses in Myanmar by creating a seamless payments ecosystem for businesses of all sizes and from every industry to engage in,” said Dean Cleland, CEO of Yoma Bank.

  • 货币是什么

    货币是什么？

    货币本质上是一种交换媒介，也可以用来储存财富。

    不言而喻，“交换媒介”指的是可以用来买东西的工具。而所谓财富储备，指的是在获取和消费之间储存购买力的工具。最合理的方式显然就是把钱存起来，以备不时之需，但人们往往不愿意持有货币，而总想把货币兑换成他们想买的东西。这就是信贷和债务发挥作用的地方。

    当出借人放贷时，他们认为收回的钱会比本身持有的钱购买更多的商品和服务。如果做得好，借贷者就能有效地使用这些钱并获得利润，进而偿还贷款并保留一些额外的钱。当贷款尚未偿还时，它是贷款人的资产，也是借款人的负债。当钱被偿还时，资产和负债就消失了，这种交换对借方和贷方都有好处。他们从本质上分享了这种生产性贷款的利润。整个社会也得益于这种机制所带来的生产力提高。

    因此，重要的是要意识到：

    1.大多数货币和信贷（尤其是现存的法定货币）没有内在价值

    2.会计系统，它只是日记可以很容易地改变

    3.系统的目的是帮助有效地分配资源以便生产力增长

    4.该系统会周期性崩溃。所有的货币不是被摧毁就是贬值，财富随之发生大规模转移，对经济和市场产生巨大影响。

    更具体地说，货币和信贷系统并没有完美地运转，而是在循环中改变货币的供应、需求和价值，在上升时产生富裕，在下降时产生重组。

  • 桥水基金创始人达里奥发布了2万字长文，以剖析在长期债务周期中，货币、信贷和债务的相互运作方式，以及它们驱动全球经济和政治变化的方式

    桥水基金创始人达里奥发布了2万字长文，以剖析在长期债务周期中，货币、信贷和债务的相互运作方式，以及它们驱动全球经济和政治变化的方式。达里奥指出，如果不了解货币、信贷和债务之间是如何运作的，就无法理解经济是如何运作的，进而就更无法理解整个经济政治体系是如何运作的。

    为了理解帝国及其经济起起落落的原因，以及现在世界秩序发生了什么，你需要理解货币、信贷和债务是如何运作的。这一点至关重要，因为从历史上看，无论是过去还是现在，人们最乐于为之奋斗的就是财富，而对财富的增减产生最大影响的就是货币和信贷。因此，如果不了解货币和信贷是如何运作的，就无法理解经济是如何运作的，进而就更无法理解整个经济政治体系是如何运作的。

    举个例子，如果不理解二十年代债务泡沫和贫富差距是如何产生的、债务泡沫的破裂又是如何导致了三十年代的大萧条，以及大萧条和过度的贫富差距如何引发了世界各地的冲突，那么也就无法理解是什么力量导致了富兰克林·罗斯福当选总统，以及在他当选后不久所推出的新计划（中央政府和美联储将共同提供大量的资金和信贷）。就是这些改变了当时的世界秩序，而这又与现在正在发生的事情颇为相似，了解其背后的机制和原理，将有助于更好地理解新冠病毒大流行的背景下，接下来会发生什么。

    永恒而普遍的基本原理：货币和信贷

    所有实体（国家、公司、非营利组织和个人）都需处理基本财务，他们的收入和支出构成了净收入，而这些流动是可以用资产负债表中的数字来衡量的。如果一个人赚的比花的多，他就会有利润，从而使他的储蓄增加。而如果一个人的支出大于收入，那么他的储蓄就会减少，或者他不得不通过借钱或来弥补差额。

    如果一个实体拥有巨额净资产，它的支出将可以高于收入，直到资金耗尽，这时它必须削减开支。如果不削减开支，它将会有大量负债/债务，如果它没有足够的收入来偿还，它就会违约。由于一个人的债务是另一个人的资产，债务违约会减少其他实体的资产，进而要求它们削减开支，从而导致债务下降和经济收缩。

    这种货币和信用体系适用于所有人、公司、非营利组织和政府，但有一个重要的例外。所有国家都可以印钞给人们消费或放贷。然而，并不是所有政府发行的货币都具有相同的价值。

    在世界范围内被广泛接受的被称为储备货币。而在当今世界上，占主导地位的储备货币是美元，由美联储发行，占所有国际交易的55%。另一种则是欧元，由欧洲央行发行，占所有国际交易的25%。目前，日元、人民币和英镑都是相对较小的储备货币，尽管人民币的重要性正迅速上升。

    拥有储备货币的国家更容易通过大量借贷摆脱困境。原因在于，世界上其他国家倾向于持有这些债务和货币，因为它们可以用来在世界各地消费。因此，拥有储备货币的国家可以发行大量以储备货币计价的信贷/债务，尤其是在目前这种储备货币短缺的情况下。

    而相比之下，没有储备货币的国家则没有这种选择。它们在以下情况中，特别需要这些储备货币（如美元）：他们有很多以他们不能印刷的储备货币计价的债务（如美元）；他们在这些储备货币上没有多少储蓄；他们获得所需货币的能力下降。当没有储备货币的国家急需储备货币来偿还他们的债务，以储备货币计价和交易的卖家希望它们用储备货币来支付时，它们就只能破产。这就是现在许多国家的情况。

    这也是许多州、地方政府、公司、非营利组织和个人会面临的情况。当它们遭受了收入损失，有没有多少存款来弥补损失时，它们将不得不削减开支或通过其他方式获得资金和信贷。

    这就是现在的世界上正在发生的事情：风险储蓄即将耗尽，以及债务违约的风险。有能力这样做的政府正在印钞，以帮助减轻债务负担，并帮助为以本国货币计价的开支提供资金。但这将削弱本国货币，提高本币的通胀水平，以抵消需求减少和被迫出售资产所造成的通货紧缩，而那些资金紧张的国家就不得不筹集现金。

  • Could Singapore take Hong Kong’s finance crown

    Hong Kong has a more vibrant capital market ― its stock exchange market capitalisation this month was more than seven times larger than Singapore’s at HK$367.7 billion (US$47 billion), compared to S$9 billion (US$6.4 billion) ― with more Chinese companies choosing to raise funds there. It is also where wealthy mainlanders stash funds.

    More than 420 hedge funds are based in Hong Kong, and these funds manage assets worth almost US$91 billion, more than is managed in Singapore, Japan and Australia combined, according to a Financial Times report this month.

    About 650,000 foreign residents, including domestic helpers, live in Hong Kong, out of a total population of more than 7 million. Singapore has a population of 5.7 million, of whom almost 1.7 million are foreigners. About 400,000 are foreigners on employment passes that mean they earn at least S$2,400 or S$3,900 a month.

    While there have been no signs of an exodus from Hong Kong, bankers and business professionals in Singapore say there have been inquiries from wealthy investors seeking to move more money there and firms mulling over an expansion or relocation of their operations.

    One senior banker said banks had been allocating staff to receive any funds flowing out of Hong Kong and into the city state, but they were not expecting businesses to abandon Hong Kong just yet.

    The banker, who did not want to be named as he was not authorised to speak on behalf of his organisation, said businesses would be mindful that moves to or talk of relocating could be perceived by Beijing as the brand being “unsupportive” of its policies on Hong Kong.

    TMF Group, a professional services firm that provides accounting, tax and human resources support to businesses, said it had received inquiries from companies exploring the possibility of leaving Hong Kong for Singapore. But many of the inquiries “have not translated into action”, said Paolo Tavolato, its head of Asia-Pacific.

    “Almost no firm with a head office or regional head office in Hong Kong has chosen to relocate it.”

    Over at real estate consultancy Knight Frank, head of capital markets Ian Loh said that since January he had got roughly 30 per cent more inquiries from investors based in Hong Kong.

    He has had more clients, ranging from family offices to investment funds, asking about buying strata offices, shophouses and buildings in Singapore, but while some deals have concluded and the investors have moved some business operations to Singapore, Loh said most investors were still in the early stages of exploring their options and were not ready to make decisions yet.

    Business consultancy firm Vistra said it had seen “a strong pickup” of new business enquiries from Hong Kong-based companies in the last month, especially from fund management companies.

    “The intention is to expand their operations in Singapore to complement their Hong Kong operations,” said Otto Von Domingo, head of commercial Southeast Asia at Vistra Singapore.

    Tavolato said his conclusion was that Hong Kong’s strength as a financial and business capital remained, it was “stronger than many give it credit for”, and it had an “incumbent’s advantage” of firms being reluctant to move head offices.

    Fatas, the economics professor at INSEAD, said Hong Kong’s proximity to mainland China was a winning factor, echoing a point made by Hong Kong business leaders, who said the city was the gateway to the mainland for both foreign and local firms.

  • Bank of Korea urged to announce specific plans to retrieve liquidity

    The Bank of Korea (BOK) and the financial authorities here should reveal specific timelines for their plan to retrieve massive anti-coronavirus liquidity supplied to the market, as a lack of such details may end up causing medium- to long-term market confusion here, a former foreign investment ombudsman said in an interview.

    Jeffrey In-chul Kim, now a professor emeritus at Sungkyunkwan University, voiced the need for the central bank to make public its plans as early as possible, as the local currency is not a global reserve currency such as the U.S. dollar.

    “Speculation will run more and more rampant in the market unless the central bank makes timely announcements over how and when to retrieve the supplied liquidity for the economy’s mid- to longer-term recovery,” Kim told The Korea Times, Friday.

    “Some developed countries ― such as the U.S. ― have in recent months pushed for supplying an unlimited amount of liquidity to the market against the virus-induced economic downturn, but they can do so because international currencies run low inflation risks. But this is not the case for the Korean won,” the economist said.

    Following a recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the BOK also took a similar step to provide unlimited liquidity to financial institutions here, in a move to rev up the sagging economy.

    The unprecedented decision reflected on growing concerns over the economic downturn here in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and prolonged low interest rate.

    The central bank and the financial authorities have expanded market liquidity to 53 trillion won particularly by purchasing bonds.

    “It is a misunderstanding that the economy will necessarily bounce back if authorities expand liquidity,” he said. “The point is to supply the liquidity to the areas in desperate need of capital.”

    “For the nation’s fiscal soundness, the financial authorities will soon put an end to the liquidity expansion policy,” he said. “But they need to announce the retrieval plans in advance, so the market is not disrupted due to possibly ensuing speculation over its liquidity retrieval.”