作为避险、保值的“避风港”，投资圈戏称黄金“喜欢坏消息” — 但凡出现某种重大危机，其他市场风险大增时，各方资产就会涌向这个避险保值安全港。
影响黄金价格的因素，过去半个世纪中主要包括经济形势、通胀率、地缘政治、货币政策、股市动态，以及国家央行买入黄金的力度等。
由于国际市场黄金交易用美元计价，因此美元汇率对金价有直接影响。美元贬值，黄金对其他货币来说就相对便宜，更多资金流入国际市场推高金价，反之亦然。
美国联储局（央行）的货币政策也因此对国际市场黄金价格也有重大影响。历史证明，黄金价格创历史新高之前的两三年，都曾发生重大危机，美联储也都曾采取量化宽松政策，扩大货币供应。
黄金价格的历史走势可以为预测未来走势提供重要依据，比如驱动因素和潜在规律。
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday opted for a status quo and left interest rates unchanged, but maintained an accommodative stance, implying more rate cuts in future if the need arises to support the economy hit by the COVID-19 crisis.
The benchmark repurchase (repo) rate has been left unchanged at 4 per cent, Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Consequently, the reverse repo rate will also continue to earn 3.35 per cent for banks for their parked deposits kept with the RBI.
He said the MPC voted for keeping interest rate unchanged and continued with its accommodative stance to support growth.
RBI had last revised its policy rate on May 22, in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting interest rate to historic low.
Moody’s Investors Service expects default rate for high-yield non-financial corporates in Asia Pacific (Apac) to remain high at six per cent in 2020, up from 1.1 per cent last year.
The rating agency said while policy stimulus would provide companies with some relief, it would not fully offset escalating credit risks.
Moody’s said the Apac trailing 12-month high-yield default rate for non-financial corporates was 5.3 per cent at the end of June 2020, higher than 2.3 per cent for the same period last year.
There were eight defaults in the first half of 2020, half of which were distressed exchanges.
Moody’s senior vice president and group credit officer Clara Lau Wai-ping said the second quarter of 2020 was likely to be the worst quarter for global economic contraction since World War II, with no quick recovery in sight.
“The ability of businesses to recover will depend on the pace of a rebound in consumer demand, which in turn hinges on governments’ ability to restore confidence by reducing fear of contagion.
“But new widespread outbreaks, if they occur, will cause renewed economic disruptions,” she said.
Moody’s said under a pessimistic scenario, where a longer period of suppressed consumer spending amid the pandemic leads to worse-than-expected economic conditions, the Apac high-yield non-financial corporate default rate could reach as high as 8.1 per cent this year.
It said central banks were likely to maintain their highly accommodative policy stance to ensure stable market liquidity until a steady recovery trajectory in both output and employment emerges.
“This will alleviate near-term liquidity and refinancing pressure. But the damage to companies’ credit fundamentals will continue to weigh on growth prospects, reducing their ability to withstand further economic disruptions,” it added.
江西省金控融资租赁股份有限公司（下称“金控租赁”）自成立以来，结合股东产业背景，立足服务实体经济，将新能源汽车产业纳入战略业务板块。
在采购环节，新能源汽车生产成本占比较大的电池、电机、电控系统等，供应商接受的账期较短；在销售环节，因下游客户为公交公司等相对强势的客户，账期较长，加上国补资金到位需要一定的时间，新能源汽车厂家需要准备大量流动资金维持生产经营。针对行业的特性，金控租赁研发了新能源汽车产业链金融产品，解决新能源汽车生产企业国家补贴到位慢、下游公交企业回款期限长等资金周转难题。
针对上游原材料供应商，我司采取核心企业“1+N”模式，给予新能源汽车生产企业总授信额度。在授信额度内，由其推荐供应商名单，核实采购需求后，我司将采购款项直接支付至具体供应商，并给予核心企业一年的账期，缓解新能源汽车生产企业采购资金压力。
下游公交企业，因其议价能力较强，资金回款较慢，一般3-5年。针对此类下游企业，我司主要有两种合作模式：
（一）融资租赁：通过与公交企业开展直接租赁或售后回租，为公交企业提供采购资金，促进新能源汽车生产企业产品销售，加快货款回笼，极大缩短销售回款周期。
（二）商业保理：针对新能源汽车生产企业已对公交公司完成销售并形成应收账款，金控租赁通过对公交公司资质的评估，以应收账款保理的形式，提前将资金支付给新能源汽车生产企业，帮助其提前回收销售资金。
2016年，金控租赁与A公司签署合作协议，给予其一定的授信额度。A公司综合评估其供应商的资质，由我司向其认可的供应商采购A公司指定的配件；同时，针对A公司对某公交公司的应收账款，开展保理业务。截至目前，省金控租赁共为新能源汽车企业及其上下游实体企业提供总融资5.76亿，一定程度上缓解了资金压力，维持了该产业链部分企业的稳定经营。
一、产品介绍
通过受让建筑公司持有的真实应收账款（项目应收工程款等），为融资人提供保理融资授信。在给定的保理授信额度范围内，融资人可分批分次提款，专项用于支付投标保证金，随借随还，按月收息，到期利随本清。
主按工程资质分档确定保理额度，具体可参考下表：
|
资质要求 |
金额 |
|
1个总承包一级资质 |
300万元（含）以内 |
|
2个总承包一级资质或 1个总承包一级资质+2个专业承包一级资质 |
500万元（含）以内 |
|
2个总包一级资质+1个专业承包一级资质 |
700万元（含）以内 |
|
3个总包一级资质或 2个总包一级资质+2个专业承包一级资质 |
1000万元（含）以内 |
|
1个特级资质 |
1000万元 |
二、客户范围
主要为有支付投标保证金需求的建筑公司。
三、产品特色
产品以信用为主，金额小、期限短、能够随提随还，一定程度降低了企业的融资成本。另外限定资金用途为支付投标保证金，专款专用，提款前提供招标文件，提款后提供已支付投标保证金的银行回单，操作便捷。
四、产品亮点
目前金控保理已对某路桥公司试点开展此类创新类投标保证金项目，保理授权总金额700万元，半年多累计投放22笔，累计投放金额1356万元，累计回收656万元。正在延展至第二家建筑类公司。该类产品预计全年可支持单家客户投标达50余笔。
为积极响应“金融保链强链”行动，服务于产业链供应链做好做强，中国出口信用保险公司江西分公司作为支持中国对外经济贸易发展与合作的国有政策性保险公司，可向企业提供短期出口信用保险及国内贸易信用保险产品及服务，为企业分担出口风险，保障收汇安全。
一、短期出口信用保险产品
为以信用证、非信用证方式从中国出口的货物或服务提供应收账款收汇风险保障，承保业务的信用期限一般为一年以内。
|
承保风险 |
商业风险 |
买方破产或无力偿付债务； |
|
买方拖欠货款； |
||
|
买方拒绝接受货物； |
||
|
开证行破产、停业或被接管； |
||
|
单证相符、单单相符时开证行拖欠或在远期信用项下拒绝承兑。 |
||
|
政治风险 |
指买方或开证行所在国家、地区禁止或限制买方或开证行向被保险人支付货款或信用证款项； |
|
|
禁止买方购买的货物进口或撤销已颁布发给买方的进口许可证； |
||
|
发生战争、内战或者暴动，导致买方无法履行合同或开证行不能履行信用证项下的付款义务； |
||
|
买方或开证行付款须经过的第三国颁布延期付款令。 |
||
|
损失赔偿比例 |
政治风险所造成损失的最高赔偿比例为90%。 |
|
|
破产、无力偿付债务、拖欠等其他商业风险所造成损失的最高赔偿比例为90%。 |
||
|
买方拒收货物所造成损失的最高赔偿比例为90%。 |
||
|
出口信用保险（福费廷）保险单下的最高参与比例可以达到100%。 |
||
|
中小企业综合保险下的最高赔偿比例为90%。 |
||
二、国内贸易信用保险产品
为在中国境内注册的企业保障在国内贸易中，因买方商业风险造成的应收货款损失，或因供应商商业风险造成的不能收回预付款的损失。适用于在中国境内注册的企业或银行。贸易合同以书面形式订立，且真实合法有效。承保买方破产、无力偿付债务、拖欠等商业风险。国内贸易信用保险产品适用于符合条件的国内贸易，是指对被保险人按销售合同约定交付货物且买方接收货物后，由于保险责任范围内的原因引起的货款损失，保险人按照保险合同约定负责赔偿的保险产品。
总部位于伦敦的在线账户和投资产品提供商Dozens的创始人Aritra Chakravarty承认，初创企业要寻求1,500万英镑(1,900万美元)融资，现在非常艰难。
“这绝对是一个悲观的市场。”Chakravarty表示。他正在为Project Imagine寻求资金，这是他那些金融科技新创公司背后的公司。他打算进行众筹，并研究提供给科技公司的官方疫情援助计划，以弥补风险资本投资者态度保留造成的影响。
数据表明他的谨慎是有根据的。据Forrester分析师的数据，金融科技公司是近年来最受风险投资人青睐的领域之一，但第二季度仅筹得63亿美元，同比下降41%。
投资者和企业家说，虽然新冠病毒大流行刺激了数字支付和在线交易等领域对金融科技的需求，但它伤害了在线贷款等较脆弱的领域。这可能会加速实力较弱的业者的消亡，导致更多的并购交易，并巩固财力较雄厚的老牌金融科技公司的主导地位。
“我认为这场危机将产生一些整并，”Bain Capital Ventures驻纽约的合伙人Matt Harris表示。
“富者将越富，并将收购规模较小的竞争对手，一些业者则将退出。”
根据Forrester数据，风险资本家对已经站稳脚跟的金融科技公司在后期阶段投入33亿美元，相当于整体融资的52%，这是较成熟公司取得融资比例首次高过新进业者。
Dozens的Chakravarty先前曾在汇丰任职，他希望他的公司能够脱颖而出，因为Project Imagine已经接近实现盈利，而且该公司也将技术卖给传统银行业者。
他补充说，他的公司所需的融资“还没签约也没交付，但有可能实现”。
估值缩水
就连那些经营相对稳固的金融科技公司，也出现了面临压力的迹象。
在英国，数字银行Monzo在6月进行筹资时被迫接受估值遭砍40%，在筹措6,000万英镑之后其估值变成12.5亿英镑，去年估值则达20亿英镑。该公司一名发言人证实了这项投资。
自2015年推出以来，Monzo凭借其亮丽的珊瑚色银行卡和消费追踪数据吸引了超过400万名客户，但目前仍处于亏损状态。在疫情爆发初期，由于海外客户减少支出影响了营收，Monzo和位于英国的竞争对手Revolut削减了140多个工作岗位。
尽管如此，Revolut周五表示，已完成8,000万美元的追加融资，保持了55亿美元的估值。
Monzo不愿就裁员置评，但在6月的备忘录中称因为疫情已经使公司的前景恶化，有必要进行裁员。Revolut谈及先前的一项声明称裁员是“不得已的做法”。
新冠危机导致的数字银行的迅速普及是否会使金融科技公司比传统银行受益，目前还尚不明晰。Jefferies分析师研究表明，疫情期间，英国现有银行的app市场份额有所增加，数字银行的app份额则有所下降。
更多的金融科技公司可能会像Monzo一样不得不承受估值下调。
“对许多公司来说这是痛苦的抉择时刻，”Forrester研究的作者Peter Wannemacher说道。“最终如果你的现金快花光了，是破产还是“估值打折”，你当然会选择估值打折去换救命钱。“
较为便宜的估值，可能使一些金融科技公司成为现有银行颇具吸引力的收购目标。
“我们可能会看到估值下滑，而这对银行介入并结成伙伴关系、从而推动自身发展来说是个巨大的机会，”QED Investors经营合伙人、第一资本金融(COF.N)联合创始人Nigel Morris表示。
Indonesian banks face challenges with human resources as they strive to bolster digital banking during the global health crisis.
Private lender Bank Central Asia (BCA) president director Jahja Setiaatmadja cited human resources as part of the company’s obstacles in digitizing the banking process.
“In this new banking future, we know that the cost is enormous: the cost to set up a data center, then recruit competent people in that field, educate [our employees],” Jahja said during a CNBC Indonesia webinar called The Future of Digital Banking on July 23.
BCA, the largest private bank in Indonesia, recorded a 91 percent annual rise in the number of mobile banking transactions to 1.29 billion during the year’s first quarter, while the number of internet banking transactions increased by 24 percent year-on-year (yoy) to 740 million, company data show.
The total value of the transactions reached a staggering Rp 3.38 quadrillion (US$231.9 billion), or more than 45 percent of the bank’s total transactions, almost matching the Rp 3.5 quadrillion transacted at the banks’ branches.
Consumers have turned to digital banking to avoid COVID-19 virus transmission through face-to-face transaction.
Consumers’ appetite for digital banking has also grown over the years. A 2019 McKinsey & Company report found that Indonesian consumers were very open to digital banking, with 55 percent of nondigital customers saying they were likely to use digital banking in the next six months, the second-highest figure among emerging Asian countries.
Meanwhile, according to a 2018 PricewaterhouseCoopers survey on digital banking in Indonesia, 66 percent of the surveyed banks say they have developed a digital strategy as part of their corporate strategy.
BCA concluded its acquisition of Bank Royal Indonesia last year for Rp 1.01 trillion in an effort to expand its digital banking business. The acquired bank is projected to become BCA’s digital bank.
Jahja also noted that, amid the digital channel development, banks had to improve on security and legal aspects as well as compliance.
The banking industry considers cybersecurity its biggest risk over the next two to three years, according to the 2018 PricewaterhouseCoopers survey.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) president director Sunarso echoed Jahja’s sentiment, stating that the human capital to assist the digital transformation was among the biggest challenges banks were facing. In addition, banks also needed to compete with fintech platforms to hire them.
“We can invest in the infrastructure [for digital transformation], but the culture and behavior within a digital era is not something that we can buy, because there is no factory for that,” Sunarso of BRI said, in elaborating on the need of a shift in mindset among employees to support the future of digital banking.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday made a strong case for stepping up investments in the infrastructure sector to restart the economy reeling under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In his address to India Inc at a CII event, Das said both private and public sectors have to play an important role in developing infrastructure that requires huge investments.
Stating that recent agriculture reforms have opened new opportunities, the RBI Governor said the farm sector is emerging as a bright spot.
India needs policies for sustained increase in farm income, he added.
With regard to forex rate, Das said the RBI has no fixed target for the rupee but will monitor undue volatility.
The Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) says it is ready to place funds in banks that have liquidity problems by teaming up with the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to stabilize the country’s financial system.
The LPS would need to obtain a recommendation from the OJK, which is tasked with investigating banks’ assets, before placing funds in struggling banks for a maximum of six months to prevent bank failure, according to new LPS Regulation No. 3/2020.
“We have yet to receive any recommendations from the OJK, but we will be ready if banks ask for fund placement,” LPS commissioner board head Halim Alamsyah told a press briefing on Friday. “We are still waiting for the OJK’s endorsement, as some banks may ask for fund placement.”
According to the new regulation, banks with liquidity issues can file a request for fund placement with the OJK and will be eligible for fund placement if their stakeholders cannot solve the liquidity crunch and the employees are not doing anything inappropriate.
The LPS’ total assets currently amount to around Rp 128 trillion (US$8.79 billion), with some Rp 120 trillion parked in sovereign debt papers (SBNs), according to Halim. “According to our observation, this will be more than enough to manage the liquidity problems.”
The government has issued Government Regulation No. 33/2020 that gives the LPS more room to manage its own liquidity and to prevent banks from failing in an effort to help strengthen the country’s financial system stability.
The new regulation allows the LPS to place a maximum 2.5 percent of its assets in one bank and a maximum 30 percent of its assets in all banks.
Previously, the LPS was only able to take a reactive approach, as it was tasked with rescuing insolvent banks by liquidating them by taking over shareholder duty, selling or transferring assets and reviewing and cancelling unprofitable agreements to help solve their liquidity problems, as stipulated in Law No. 24/2004.
The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened the stability of the financial system, as it causes supply-demand shocks and weakens the financial industry and macroeconomy, the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) said in its first quarter report issued in May.
The banking industry’s capital adequacy ratio (CAR), meanwhile, stood at 22.16 percent in May, up slightly from 22.13 percent the month before, OJK data show. It continued to book an 8.87 percent increase in third-party funds in May.
OJK data also show that banks have provided 6.35 million debtors with credit restructuring worth Rp 695.3 trillion as of June 22, as part of the authority’s move to provide relief for borrowers affected by the outbreak.
Previously, publicly listed Bank Bukopin had to limit customers’ withdrawals due to liquidity issues and shareholder commotion that prevented them from injecting more capital into the bank. The reports triggered panic among customers, as the OJK tried to calm them, and pushed Bukopin’s shareholders to finalize the capital injection plan.
If struggling banks failed to improve their liquidity after the fund placement, the bank would be handed over to the OJK before being dissolved, according to the regulations.