作者: bankr

  • 金融科技发展路径图出炉组国际队拓展海外市场

    台湾金管会今天公布「金融科技发展路径图」,甄选有潜力的金融机构与金融科技业者组成国际队到海外拓展市场,优先锁定英国、波兰、美国、法国、星港、菲律宾及新南向国家。

    金管会主委黄天牧自今年5月下旬上任后,宣布6大兴利方案,承诺最快会在3个月内提出具体方案。金管会今天发布「金融科技发展路径图」,且用3年时间推动60项措施,希望形塑友善的金融科技生态系,并提升金融服务效率、可及性、使用性及品质。

    金管会综规处副处长胡则华表示,预计在2021年8月要成立共创平台,协助创新中心推动金融科技发展相关工作,除了选出金融科技国际队外,还要招募遴选台湾金融科技形象大使及广宣人员,协助推广金融科技成果等事项。

    胡则华说,筹组金融国际队主要是因为台湾有许多金融机构、金融科技新创团队,拥有创意与技术,商业模式也具可行性,但因财务资源有限,难向海外拓展,所以希望寻找有潜力的金融机构与金融科技业者,协助拓展到海外市场,提高国际能见度。

    胡则华表示,共创平台未来也会请金融服务提供者、周边单位及相关学研机构共同设计金融科技证照分类、考试项目,并规划相应的训练课程、书籍、宣导方式。

    值得一提的是,金管会研拟将在2021年8月推动发展「金融行动身分辨识联盟(F-FIDO)」,研议规划导入国际FIDO标准,让民众在A银行插卡开户后,可先用FIDO完成身分验证,后续在B券商、C保险公司开户时,即可免除每次开户都得作身分认证的繁琐程序。

    此外,金融科技创新发展同时,监理技术也要同步强化,金管会除了要建立数位监理申报机制外,也将仿效国外经验,透过举办「黑客松」发展监理科技,从中发掘创新技术,去解决法遵、监理问题。

    胡则华表示,黑客松比赛预计今年底开始征选,最快在2021年1月中旬进行比赛,并公布得奖结果。

  • 政策框架检讨完毕 鲍威尔要试着让人相信高通胀是好事

    经过将近两年的检讨,美国联邦储备委员会(美联储/FED)的官员们感觉自己已经想出了一种实现物价稳定和充分就业两大目标的更好办法。

    美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周四将开始这项或许更为困难的任务:说服公众相信,在一场可以说让美国人民对政府机构丧失信任并导致大量人口失业的疫情之后,美联储能够也将会履行自己的使命。

    一个令人困惑的话题其实很难作为卖点:其重点是要告诉美国人民,长期来看高通胀率对他们是有益的。分析师开始猜测,在货币政策对经济的帮助或许已近极限的环境下,美联储的新“框架”是否真比现有的更胜一筹。

    “目前的情势的确危险,货币政策决策者手中的弹药已所剩无几,”美联储研究部门前主管David Wilcox说。他现在是位于华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所的高级研究员。

    美联储的新框架预计很快公布,Wilcox表示,他担心新框架会显得抽象,除非同时出台新的执行举措,譬如新的大规模购债计划或设立明确的失业率目标。

    美联储上次政策会议的纪录显示,未来可能更进一步推进这些步骤,好让联储有时间观察经济在疫情现阶段的表现。美联储已将利率降至零水准、开始进行一些购债并批准大规模放贷计划。

    周四鲍威尔的线上演说将谈到联储政策框架的检讨,一项包含公听会和研究的倡议,以探讨货币政策应该采取甚么样的改变来因应经济变化。

    今年由堪萨斯联储主办的年度经济座谈会通常是在度假胜地怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举行,但受疫情影响改以线上方式进行。美联储官员向来会利用杰克森霍尔全球央行年会发出政策转变信号,外界预计鲍威尔在周四1310 GMT开始的演说也将是如此。

    美联储副主席克拉里达、理事布雷纳德下周也有演讲行程安排,他们将在华盛顿智库主办的活动中发表讲话。

    未达成的目标

    主题似乎将深入货币政策细节,集中在疲弱通胀与低失业率无法共存的观点,因为如果太多人就业,薪资和物价将螺旋式上升。

    然而在疫情发生前,这种情况就已经出现。失业率缓步降至历史低点,但通胀率却甚至没有碰到联储的2%目标。而被视作未来物价上升速度关键的通胀预期也滞后。

    这不仅对美联储而且对于世界各地的央行官员来说都是一个长期问题。 如果没有通胀,利率仍会低于正常水平,当经济像今年一样衰退时,就几乎没有空间透过调降利率来帮助经济。央行届时面临迅速降息至零的局面,并使用政治层面来讲较难的工具,例如债券购买或信贷计划,来支持企业和家庭。

    “越来越多人意识到,最初在美国和全球设定的2%通胀目标还远远不够,”圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德在最近接受路透采访时表示。他称,改变框架可能有助于“提振目标,并让预期维持在2%。”

    美联储一开始在2012年制定了通胀目标,此后大部分时间都未实现。 金融市场表明,美国10年后的预期通胀率仅为1.75%,该水准反映出几乎无需担心通胀率跳升的风险,也几乎不相信美联储能够掌控这么一个本该由央行掌控的经济变量。

    在下个月的政策会议上,美联储料将会调整其对通胀目标的描述。不再期望年通胀率达到2%,而是让较长一段时间内的平均通胀率达到该目标,明确允许或许有几年物价增长较快,以弥补有几年物价上涨较慢的情况。

    举例来说,可能需要长达10年的2.5%通胀率,才能抵销2012年以来通胀率未达标的情况。

    “彻头彻底的噩梦”

    新框架预计也将更加记取过去几年的最大教训:失业率可以在不引发物价上涨的情况下跌到比预期更低的水准。

    当前的策略是把超低失业率视为一个美联储需要“化解”的通胀风险,而非受薪阶级在物价温和情况下的额外红利。

    以平均通胀率目标的方式暗示容忍更高的物价涨速,应该会允许更低的失业率,因为即使在物价上涨之际,美联储也将会维持更宽松的金融状况,不像一些人所批评美联储的以往做法,在就业增长刚起步时就把它扼杀了。

    要解释这些鲍威尔恐怕要颇费口舌,在美国约有2,800万人领取失业救济的情况下,或许更是如此。尽管美国整体通胀温和,但最近物价涨得最凶的都是食品和家用电器等生活必需品。

    “万一不幸失业率很高而且通胀率超过2%呢?”Columbia Threadneedle高级分析师Ed Al-Hussainy表示。过去正是这种组合促使美联储在1970年代展开一场长达20年的打击通胀战役,树立起通胀斗士的公信力。

    “要向国会和公众说明个中缘由,会是一场彻头彻尾的噩梦,”Al-Hussainy说。

  • 金融科技企业开始逆转大银行

    融合IT和金融的金融科技(Fintech)企业的利润正在扩大。从全球金融机构的2020年4~6月财报来看,金融科技企业的利润超过日美欧大银行的情况十分明显。除了股票总市值之外,业绩也开始发生逆转。新型冠状病毒疫情促使数字化进程加快,这一因素或使逆转趋势增强。

    “由物质(实物)转向数字是一股强大的东风,而且这股风并不是短暂性的”,在电子支付企业美国PayPal Holding召开的财报说明会上,首席执行官(CEO)丹·舒尔曼的期待之情溢于言表。

    4~6月PayPal的净利润同比增长86%,达到15.3亿美元,创历史新高。由于新冠疫情,网络销售市场实现增长,支付服务总额增加3成。

    中国企业也取得了引人注目的飞跃性进步。4~6月腾讯控股的金融科技企业服务业务的毛利润增长57%,达到了12.5亿美元。中小型零售企业和餐厅等引进微信支付系统的动向扩大。

      阿里巴巴集团的4~6月财报显示,其出资33%的蚂蚁集团的权益法利润超过4亿美元。推测蚂蚁集团的净利润约为13亿美元。以支付宝为轴心,智能手机银行和资产管理等金融服务不断扩大。

    金融科技企业实现了可与大型金融集团匹敌的利润水平。PayPal的利润超过了美国花旗集团,蚂蚁集团的利润达到了瑞士瑞信银行的同等水平。

    市值之高也非常引人注目。PayPal的市值约为2300亿美元,比日本三大银行的总市值(约1300亿美元)高出7成。蚂蚁集团准备进行首次公开募股(IPO),目标是市值达到2000亿美元,逼近美国第二大的美国银行(Bank of America,约2200亿美元)。

    其他结算相关企业方面,著名信用卡企业美国VISA的4~6月期利润下降23%。随着消费下滑,整体的信用卡使用低迷。但在线结算增加,对业绩构成一定支撑。

    3月取得银行业执照的美国SQUARE公司4~6月出现亏损。由于建立了个人商店等可以使用手机轻松完成信用卡结算的机制,实现了快速增长,计划2021年成立银行。市值约为670亿美元,超过三菱UFJ金融集团。

    因数字化措施,业绩出现分化

    商业银行和投资银行也因数字化措施,业绩出现差距。

    在美国高盛集团的市场部门,债券和股票的4~6月营业利润均创金融危机以来的最高纪录。高盛集团向客户提供电子交易平台“Marquee”,客户在疫情期间居家也可以实现电子交易和风险管理。4月外部签单创历史新高。因计提贪污相关的准备金,整体收益减少。

    美国摩根士丹利4~6月虽有90%以上的员工居家办公,仍创下最高利润。野村控股等在美国从事贸易业务的企业总体上业绩良好。

    在美国,联邦储备委员会(FRB)的系统实现电子化,某大型证券公司高管透露,“国债招标在自己家里也可以参加,居家办公并不妨碍业务”。但日本市场还不具备在自己家里进行国债招标及央行公开市场操作的系统环境。必须去到公司,利用公司的专用终端进行交易。

    据QUICK FactSet统计,东证上市企业4~6月日均交易额比1~3月减少。封城措施比日本严格的纽约和伦敦反而交易增加,日本大和综研的中曾宏分析指出:“切实抓住了(随着金融数字化发展)股票和债券大幅波动带来的收益机会”。

  • 日本的银行开始对新申领纸质存折收费了

    日本的银行开始对新申领纸质存折收费了

    日本瑞穗银行自2021年1月起,在发放纸质存折时将收取1千日元(不含消费税,约合人民币65.3元)手续费。以新开设账户的个人和企业为对象。用户可选择不收手续费的电子存折,引导用户转向电子存折。在推动网上银行利用的同时,有助于经费削减。

     

    在日本的大型银行中,瑞穗是第一家对纸质存折收费的银行。对象是2021年1月18日以后开设普通账户和定期账户的用户等,在纸质存折旧折换新时也收取1千日元。对70岁以上的人免费,现有账户不收费。

     

    瑞穗银行的存折

    在电子存折方面,用户可通过智能手机和个人电脑确认最长10年的交易明细。

     

    纸质存折每个账户每年会被征收200日元的印花税等,超大型银行每年需承担数十亿日元的经费。在其他大型银行方面,征收存折发行手续费也成为讨论课题,收费化的趋势或将扩大。

     

    三菱UFJ银行和三井住友银行正在通过设置优惠来推动用户转向电子存折。

  • Cryptocurrencies help Chinese evade capital and currency controls in moving billions overseas

    Cryptocurrencies appear to be emerging as the latest means for Chinese citizens to move their assets overseas and evade the nation’s strict capital controls amid escalating tensions in US-China relations.
    The Chinese government allows its citizens to transfer the equivalent of only US$50,000 or less out of the country each year. Historically, wealthy citizens have dodged this rule through foreign investments in real estate and other assets – sometimes even using shell companies to disguise the purchases of foreign currencies as legitimate business transactions.
    But as Beijing has cracked down on some of these methods to circumvent capital controls, the use of cryptocurrencies may be picking up some of the slack as investors seek to protect their wealth in a global economy that is suffering from the trade war and the coronavirus pandemic, according to a recent report by New York-based blockchain analytic company, Chainalysis.
    More than US$50 billion in cryptocurrency assets have been moved from China-based addresses to other regions over the last 12 months, according to the report. In particular, Tether, known as a “stablecoin” because its value is pegged to the US dollar, could be playing a key role in the recent capital flight from China, Chainalysis said.
    In countries where “safe-haven fiat currencies” such as the US dollar are restricted, stablecoins are particularly attractive because they can be sold on exchanges without losing much of their value. This has caused Tether’s market capitalisation to grow massively, accounting for 93 per cent of stablecoin use in East Asia in recent years.
    “Stablecoins such as Tether have always been sought after in countries with tight capital and currency controls,” said Wayne Chen, CEO of fintech firm Interlapse. “With the political uncertainty between the US-China trade war and the existing capital and exchange controls in China, this can drive people to adopt stablecoins.”

  • 尚达曼:金管局将致力推动金融业为国人创造好工作

    尚达曼:金管局将致力推动金融业为国人创造好工作

    新加坡金融管理局(MAS)将和劳资政伙伴紧密合作,支持本地金融业员工进行再培训及提升技能,并为毕业生及中年员工创造就业和见习机会。

    负责金管局事务的国务资政兼社会政策统筹部长尚达曼在金管局施政方针附录中表示,我国经济面临独立以来最严重经济下行,金管局将确保经济与金融稳定,支持商家及国人渡过冠病危机,并致力促使金融业更加强韧,继续支持经济发展,为国人带来好的工作。

    金管局也将和业者合作,确保较早前推出,协助国人和商家暂缓偿付贷款和保费等各种暂时性措施,以适当的步伐退场,减少借贷者面对“悬崖效应”的冲击,并保障金融稳定性。

    当局也和主要金融机构合作,确保它们的雇员以新加坡人为核心,辅以多元化及高素质的人才,并栽培本地人才担任金融业高层。

  • 中国财政资金直达落地“快快快” 稳经济“央妈、财爸”拼全力

    中国财政资金直达落地“快快快” 稳经济“央妈、财爸”拼全力

    无论是7月底已发行完毕的1万亿元人民币抗疫特别国债,还是5月中国两会中确定的2万亿为保基层运转的中央财政直达资金,在快、快、快的节奏下,“财爸”与“央妈”为稳经济拼尽了全力。这显然也是中国上半年经济超预期的重要原因。

    从分配情况看,截至8月中旬,扣除用于支持减税降费的3,000亿元以外,实行直达管理的1.7万亿元资金当中,中央财政已经下达了1.674万亿元。意味着98.5%的资金已经下达,还剩下1.5%,大约260亿元还没有下主要是为后续的疫情防控还得要留点钱。

    同样在周二国新办举行的“金融机构支持实体经济政策落实情况”的政策吹风会上,来自央行的官员也详述了支持实体经济所做的努力,不是一上来就把子弹打光,而是根据统筹疫情防控和经济发展的需要,根据阶段性的重点任务一步一步来,不手忙脚乱,把握好节奏。

    中国上半年GDP同比增长3.2%,远超市场预期。虽然供给端有政策不断加力,通过政府投资增加专项债等多种方式大力稳投资并出台多项刺激消费的举措,但受经济前景预期欠佳以及外围环境恶化,需求端的疲软显而易见。

     

    相较总量调控的货币政策,财政政策更侧重在调结构方面发挥作用。只是面对今年突发的疫情,在大规模的减费降税后在六稳六保方面,财政政策承担的压力和发挥的空间显然更大。

    许宏才详解了2万亿直达资金的使用情况,截至8月中旬,在1.7万亿元当中已经形成实际支出5,097亿元,如果按照支出进度测算,实际支出的数额5,097亿元占中央财政已经下达资金的比重是30.5%,高出序时进度2.7个百分点。

    也就是说,从下达时间算起到年底,现在的实际支出进度,比按照时间均匀分布来算,大概高出2.7个百分点。由于初期有很多准备工作,直接按照时间均匀分布计算不一定很合理,即使这样比较,比序时进度也是快的。

    至于特别抗疫国债,6月18从日第一笔发行到7月30日发行完毕,共发行了16期抗疫特别国债。综合考虑了各方面因素,特别是市场需求,本次1万亿国债分为三种期限,分别是5年期、7年期、10年期。5年期发行4次共2,000亿元,7年期发行2次共1,000亿元,10年期发行10次共7,000亿元,总体来说发行结构比较合理,发行节奏也是比较平稳。

     

  • RBI Expects Inflation To Rise Further In Coming Months

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said headline inflation picked up strongly during the closing months of 2019-20 and the short-term outlook for food inflation has turned uncertain.

    Country’s headline inflation is expected to firm up further in the coming months largely due to disruptions in food and manufactured items’ supply chains, the Reserve Bank of
    India said in its annual report for 2019-20 released on Tuesday.

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said headline inflation picked up strongly during the closing months of 2019-20 and the short-term outlook for food inflation has turned
    uncertain.

    “Disruptions in food and manufactured items’ supply chains could amplify sectoral price pressures, thus posing an upside risk to headline inflation. Heightened volatility in
    financial markets could also have a bearing on inflation,” said the RBI Annual Report 2019-2020.

    All of these may influence inflation expectations of households, which are adaptive in nature, and show significant sensitivity to shocks to food and fuel prices, the report
    said.

    Monetary policy, therefore, has to keep a constant vigil on price movements, especially as they can translate into generalised inflation.

    According to government data, retail inflation rose to 6.93 per cent in July, mainly driven by rising prices of food items like vegetables, pulses, meat and fish.

    In its monetary policy review earlier this month, RBI had said that the retail inflation is expected to be at elevated levels during the second quarter, but may ease in the
    second half of the current fiscal year.

    Supply chain disruptions persist, resulting in inflation pressures across segments, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the decisions taken by the central bank’s
    Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on August 6.

    Going by the trend of global commodity price developments and weak demand conditions, consumer price inflation remained benign during 2019 and early 2020 in a number of
    economies the overall headline inflation was subjected to higher volatility in 2019-20 relative to the previous four years, underpinned by high flux in food prices, RBI said.

    Within the food group, price spikes for different items occurred at different time points. The seasonal behaviour has changed in the case of prices of many food items such as,
    onion, ginger, brinjal, cauliflower, okra and green peas.

    Interestingly, despite being the most volatile item, seasonality in onion prices has declined significantly over the years, partly reflecting improvement in cold storage
    facilities, RBI said.

    “As the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe, all commodity prices dipped. The shutdown of industries in China in February 2020 and later in Europe and the US led to a
    fall in demand for metals, easing their prices.

    “Prices of food items like palm oil, soy oil, sugar and corn also declined with retrenchment in demand for ethanol and bio-diesel as crude oil prices declined,” the report
    said.

  • RBI Calls For Deep-Seated, Wide-Ranging Reforms For Sustainable Growth

    The COVID-19 pandemic will inflict deep disfiguration on the world economy and the shape of the future will be heavily contingent upon the evolving intensity, spread and duration of COVID-19 and the discovery of the elusive vaccine, the RBI said.

    Cautioning that India’s potential output may undergo a structural downshift following the pandemic, the Reserve Bank on Tuesday made a strong case for deep-seated and wide-ranging reforms to regain losses and return to the path of sustainable economic growth.

    The COVID-19 pandemic will inflict deep disfiguration on the world economy and the shape of the future will be heavily contingent upon the evolving intensity, spread and duration of COVID-19 and the discovery of the elusive vaccine, the RBI said in its ‘assessment and prospects’ which forms part of the central bank’s Annual Report for the year 2019-20.

    Post-COVID-19, the overwhelming sense is that the world will not be the same again and a new normal could emerge, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said.

    “In a post-pandemic scenario, deep-seated and wide-ranging structural reforms in factor and product markets, the financial sector, legal architecture, and in international competitiveness would be needed to regain potential output losses and return the economy to a path of strong and sustainable growth with macroeconomic and financial stability,” the RBI said.

    As in the rest of the world, “India’s potential output can undergo a structural downshift as the recovery driven by stimulus and regulatory easing gets unwound in a post-pandemic scenario,” it noted.

    Moreover, this recovery is likely to be different as the global financial crisis occurred after years of robust growth with macroeconomic stability; by contrast, COVID-19 has hit the economy after consecutive quarters of slowdown, it added.

  • A Covid-Era How-To For The Money-Wise

    A Covid-Era How-To For The Money-Wise

    Lessons on investor behaviour during the unprecedented pandemic

    Booms and bull runs lead to “irrational exuberance”, a term coined by Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, in 1996. More than a century before him, author Charles Mackay ­explained the phenomenon succinctly in his aptly titled book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. He presciently wrote, “Every age has its peculiar folly…into which it plunges, spurred on by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the mere force of imitation.”

    Panics and investment pandemics, in contrast, lead to another kind of herd mentality, a lunacy that too is irrational and dynamic. However, what drives it are the pain of loss, inevitability of volatility, and a desperate need to protect savings. Only in retrospect do investors realise the bitter truth in both cases. Economist Robert J. Shiller explained this about two decades ago when he wrote that the markets do not always ­reflect the “sum of the available ­economic information”.