作者: bankr

  • Shot fired when lone robber hits Subang Jaya bank

    An armed man robbed a bank of RM20,000 at Jalan SS 15/4G, here, today.

    The suspect single-handedly pulled off the heist at about 4.23pm, just in time before the outlet was closed for the day.

    He also fired a warning shot to the ceiling before rushing towards the counter.

    Subang Jaya police chief Assistant Commissioner Risikin Satiman said police received a distress call at about 4.30pm and rushed to the scene.

    “Preliminary investigation showed that the suspect entered the bank while holding an automatic pistol in his hand.

    “While inside the bank, the suspect pushed the security guard and fired a shot towards the ceiling before he rushed towards the counter for the loot,” he said.

    Risikin said the man demanded the bank employee to hand over the money before fleeing the scene.

    “It was raining heavily at the time of the incident. He took off with RM20,000.”

    He added that a forensic team was dispatched to the scene.

    “Upon combing the scene for evidence, police found a bullet casing which belonged to an automatic pistol inside the premise. Fortunately, no one was injured in the incident,” he said.

    Risikin said police believed the man had acted alone.

    “We were in the midst of gathering CCTV recordings from the premises nearby.” he said.

    He added that the case was being investigated under Section 3 of the Firearms (Heavier Penalties) Act 1971 (Firing of firearms while committing robbery) and Section 392/397 of the Penal Code (Robbery with weapons) Act.

  • 同业存单为何成为负债饥渴的中资银行“香饽饽”?

     

    中国银行类机构同业存单发行8月再现高潮,约2万亿元人民币的规模并创出近两年新高。分析人士认为,货币政策收敛预期下短期降准无望,银行存款增长乏力,而除结构性存款遭压降外,监管层还要求年底创新类存款清零,均导致银行青睐同业存单以缓负债饥渴。

    资料图片:2016年3月30日,北京,一家银行的柜员使用点钞机清点人民币纸币。REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

    他们并称,7月末结构性存款规模已较4月高点压减2万亿元,未来快速压降压力料缓和,不过鉴于社融增速难以持续提升,银行存款增长压力或继续存在,存单规模仍有增长空间;同时货币政策重新转向宽松的概率也较小,流动性收缩环境下存单利率料仍保持高位。

    “派生存款少了,结构性存款和创新存款又在被压降,而且预期也不会宽松,还有这么密集的债券发行,光抽流动性也不降准,银行太缺钱了,”华东一银行交易员说。

    中国今年新债供给规模急剧增加,5月地方债发行曾创历史新高,随后6-7月又有1万亿元抗疫特别国债发行,紧接着8月地方债重拾升势,发行规模大增至近1.2万亿元,仅次于5月的历史高点。

    上述银行交易员并称,地方债密集缴款对银行资金造成明显抽离作用,而其所募集的资金重新流回银行体系至少需要一到两个月时间,由此造成的流动性缺口只能通过发行存单来弥补。

    华泰证券固定收益研究团队报告指出,7月份以来,银行存款增长面临较大压力。究其原因,7月监管层明显传达信用扩张放缓的信号,随着信贷增速放缓,商业银行存款派生也在减少,因此存款总量减少;此外,结构性存款被动压降直接导致商业银行存款减少。

    中金公司报告显示,7月存款同比增速年内出现首次下降,从上月的10.63%降至10.23%;金额来看,环比减少103亿元,增量为2016年以来同期最低水平。

    路透6月曾援引消息人士报导称,中国银保监会窗口指导部分股份制商业银行,要求其压缩结构性存款规模,以打击资金空转套利;其中至少有一家股份行被要求,在2020年底时,存量结构性存款规模不得高于2019年底规模的三分之二。

    据央行公布的数据显示,7月末结构性存款余额为10.17万亿元,环比上月大幅下降6,547亿元,由此结构性存款规模实现三连降,且相比最高峰时的4月份下降近2万亿元。

    “结构性存款的减少直接导致银行失去稳定长期资金,进而只能通过存单、金融债等方式来补充,”华泰证券的报告称。

    此外,路透从两位消息人士获悉,央行曾于去年底窗口指导银行类机构压减创新类存款,其中包括靠档计息活期和靠档计息大额存单等,且要求今年底实现清零目标。

    “除了结构性存款外,还有创新存款,银行缺钱可能和这也有关系,创新存款现在都在整改,直接和MPA(宏观审慎评估)考核挂钩,”其中一位消息人士称。

    **存单利率料保持高位**

    同业存单发行放量的同时,流动性紧张亦持续推动存单利率上行。8月最后几天,一年期股份制银行存单发行利率连续数天高于2.95%的MLF(中期借贷便利)利率水平,并创1月下旬以来新高至3.04%。

    考虑到货币政策将延续紧平衡及银行持续的存款压力,预计存单利率仍保持高位运行。

    “今年剩下几个月,还有2-3万亿结构性存款要压降,如果货币政策保持紧平衡,存单利率还会上。”一银行同业部负责人称。

    光大证券研究所首席银行业分析师王一峰在报告中指出,年内结构性存款与同业存单“跷跷板效应”仍将延续,银行对于一年期存单资金的吸收需求将进一步提升,存单价格有望围绕MLF利率波动。

    他并认为,“宽信用”持续发力下造成银行储备资金大量消耗,8月超储率或在1%附近,若没有稳定的流动性注入,“宽信用”和“紧货币”的组合难以持续;若货币当局持续强势,则信用投放可能再度受到流动性约束,从而市场也会被迫从“宽信用”转向“紧信用”。

    一大行人士指出,当前市场普遍缺乏长期资金,导致同业存单有价无市,央行加大长期流动性投放的必要性显著提升;但降准可能带来市场对宽松的预期,央行始终保持谨慎,因此需要关注月中MLF操作力度。

    “如果存单价格持续高于MLF利率,就该思考政策收紧的问题了。”他称。

    央行此前曾表示,将健全以公开市场操作(OMO)利率为短期政策利率,和以中期借贷便利(MLF)利率为中期政策利率的央行政策利率体系。

    此外,华泰证券报告还指出,年内社融和信贷增速可能走平,后续存款派生的速度预计较难加快,股份行结构性存款仍存在压降的压力,货币政策重新转向宽松的概率较小,因此银行存款增长压力可能继续存在。

    “年内结构性存款压降仍将持续,财政部也要求地方专项债在10月末前发行完毕,银行需补充中长期稳定资金,加之9-10月份存单到期规模较高,存单发行有望延续高增态势,”王一峰称。

  • COVID-19 is setting Canadian women in finance back by decades

    One survey shows nearly one in 10 women in Toronto finance has considered quitting; no men have even thought about it

    Part of Justin Trudeau’s economic strategy since becoming prime minister has been to increase the power of women in Canada’s labour force. It was working until COVID-19.

    Canada had the highest participation rate for women in the Group of 20, according to an OECD report last year. By comparison, the U.S. ranked 10th. The employment rate for Canadian working-age women hit a record last September, Statistics Canada data show, but the virus erased 20 years of progress — at least temporarily.

    The group whose employment levels are furthest away from pre-virus levels? Moms with school-age kids. Women are also cutting back their hours more sharply than men, and the impact COVID is having on their ability to work extends all the way up the economic ladder.

    In the nation’s financial hub, where efforts have been made to boost the number of women in leadership positions, one survey shows nearly one in 10 has considered quitting their jobs while no men have even thought about it.

    Fresh labour-force data are due Friday in both Canada and the U.S. and will underscore what’s at stake as schools open in the fall. While Canada mostly avoided a summer resurgence of COVID-19 — it has fewer than 6,000 active cases — the picture is still one of delays, uncertainty and disruption.

    “We cannot fully reopen our economies until we can safely reopen schools. And we may not be able to safely reopen schools,” Frances Donald, global chief economist of Manulife Investment Management, said in an interview.

    There are also consequences for diversity, especially in the upper echelons of business where women’s progress has been slow and hard-fought. It doesn’t take much to set back the clock.

    Generational Impact

    A July survey of 300 professionals by Women in Capital Markets, a Toronto-based industry group, showed a worrying trend: 9 per cent of women said they were considering quitting their jobs and the same percentage asking for a leave of absence. No men said they were thinking of quitting, though 8 per cent said they’ve considered asking for reduced hours.

    “When something in the family is too tough, it’s still usually the women who take the step back in order to ensure that the household continues to function,” said Camilla Sutton, chief executive officer of the organization. She’s particularly worried about mid-level women in business who may be in the throes of child-rearing. If a big chunk of that cohort quits, or steps back, “you have a pipeline gap for the next generation.”

    Unless they pedal harder.

    Belle Kaura has the energy and organizational skills you might expect from someone with three law degrees who has worked in big roles at Bank of Montreal, Pacific Investment Management Co. and now Third Eye Capital Management Inc., a private-credit firm where she’s head of compliance.

    We cannot fully reopen our economies until we can safely reopen schools. And we may not be able to safely reopen schools FRANCES DONALD

    Before the pandemic, she was out the door before her kids were awake, catching an early train to work long hours in Toronto’s financial district and tacking on evening events two or three nights a week. Her husband runs two dental clinics outside the home from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. During the school year, her parents would pick up her daughters and look after them until she or her husband got home, sometimes letting them stay overnight. In summer, all-day camps replaced school and the routine held up.

    When COVID-19 struck, all that went out the window. Now her elderly parents are social distancing and Kaura is working from home while supervising Meliya, 13, and Sofia, 9. Her employer has been supportive but her professional workload has also increased with market volatility, she said, a common observation in the investment industry. A fits-and-starts return to school will make everything much harder.

    “You try to keep all the balls in the air at all times. But inevitably at the end of the workday or the work week, you feel like your efforts are inadequate on some front,” Kaura said in an interview. The days are so long her kids now book time slots in the evening hours to talk to her, having already started Facetiming her from inside the house to avoid walking in on meetings.

  • 美元贬值才刚刚开始?

    2020年夏季开始突显的美元贬值趋势将持续至何时?这是国际金融市场最主要的关注焦点之一。目前,美国实际利率下降带来的美元抛售趋势正在告一段落。但是,如果考虑到美国的货币政策走向和过去的萧条期的经验法则,美元贬值的波浪或许刚刚开始涌动。  

    美元兑主要国家货币加速贬值是在6月以后。美国洲际交易所(ICE)计算的显示美元综合价值的指数8月18日降至92.0~92.4区间,在5月底以来的2个半月里下降6%。在这一期间显著的是欧元汇率的上升。欧元兑美元汇率一度从1欧元兑约1.11美元升值至约1.19美元,出现了买入欧元抛售美元趋势被推进的情况。

          成为抛售美元原因的是美国的实际利率下降。实际利率指的是从名义利率中剔除物价变动的影响的利率。日本三菱UFJ银行的数据显示,美国10年期利率从5月底的-0.5%降至8月的-1%。为了应对新冠疫情,美国联邦储备委员会(FRB)重启了事实上的零利率和量化宽松政策,结果名义利率下降,在此背景下,美国政府的巨额财政刺激导致预期物价上涨率提高,实际利率的跌幅也有所扩大。

    美国实际利率在8月中旬以后转为持平,美元贬值的势头也在减弱。兑欧元汇率在26日的东京外汇市场徘徊在1欧元兑约1.18美元。兑日元汇率为1美元兑106.0~106.9日元区间,一度达到104.0~104.9日元区间的日元升值出现反转。货币期货市场的投机资金的做空美元持仓时隔约1个月缩小,“美元贬值走势告一段落”的说法也开始出现,但是否的确如此呢?

          日本三菱UFJ银行的内田稔表示“美元贬值的趋势不会轻易改变”。这是因为,他认为美联储为推动经济复苏和市场稳定而推进的零利率政策和充裕的美元资金供给举措距离退出依然遥远。美国在2008年的雷曼危机后退出零利率经过了7年时间。内田表示此次“认为美联储的加息时期将在2024年以后是市场参与者的普遍看法。作为经常项目赤字国的美国一直以相对较高的利率吸引投资资金,但如今已变得困难”。

          摩根士丹利MUFG证券的杉崎弘一也预测美元贬值趋势会持续。在外汇市场,过去筹集日元等低利率货币、投资于更高收益率的资产的套利交易活跃,但杉崎认为“美元计价资产的投资价值降低,如今美元本身不再是投资对象,而是正在成为用于筹集的货币”。

    “美国在经济衰退期,存在为缓解通货紧缩压力而追求美元贬值的倾向”。日本Pictet投信投资顾问的市川真一以1990年代前半期的克林顿政权初期和雷曼危机时为例,认为目前已进入长约3年的中期美元贬值局面。如果以超过10年的较长周期来看,美元仍处于高点区域,这也在带来“存在进一步贬值的空间”的看法。

    正在关注美元走向的不仅限于市场参与者。由于最近的美元暴跌,著名经济学家等人开始针对“美元霸权”动摇的可能性展开讨论。此前预告美国金融危机的美国纽约大学教授鲁里埃尔·罗比尼认为,在新兴市场国家中,中国的存在感将进一步提高,人民币的普及有可能取得进展。如果美元贬值今后进一步加速,认为美元衰退的看法也很难说夸张。

  • MONEY THOUGHTS: The Es of financial planning

    IT is intellectually rewarding to discover how disparate concepts spanning curiosity, space, time and economics may fuse together to achieve a common goal: serious wealth.

    Therefore, today we’ll look at three terms starting with the letter “E” which dovetail together to grant us powerful insights into the world of money.

    1. Equities

    2. Emergency Buffer Fund (EBF)

    3. Entropy

    EQUITIES

    The annual World Wealth Report analyses the asset allocation preferences of the world’s wealthiest individuals.

    A chart found in most yearly WWRs tracks the percentage of their investment wealth spread across five primary asset classes: cash, fixed income (bonds), equities (stocks), investment real estate, and alternative investments (like private equity, structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currencies and commodities).

    Diversification across asset classes is wise. However, over long periods, say, from a decade to a century, equities tend to outperform all four other major asset classes.

    This is not surprising.

    When we buy directly listed stocks or even equity funds, we are investing in business ownership. It is through owning and operating a business well that enormous wealth is created and then consistently compounded over decades. Yet there is a trade-off:

    Equity investors accept sizeable risk when they opt to part with a portion of their nest egg to try and grow their money faster than they might using the other four primary asset classes.

    In exchange for accepting equities’ higher risk, they demand — and sometimes receive — outsized gains through dividends and price appreciation.

    The trade-off for high potential returns is the acceptance of large levels of investment risk.

    That doesn’t mean we should avoid equities, just that we should invest gradually and intelligently.

    Equity funds grant us broad-based diversification while directly owned stocks carry the potential for enormous gains (but also gargantuan losses) in exchange for accepting huge asset price volatility. I own both forms of equities in my portfolio.

    For my financial planning clients, though, I adopt a more prudent approach and advise them on asset allocation plans implemented through funds spanning up to five asset classes.

    It is a helpful way to mitigate single-stock-selection concentration risk when investing in the exciting equity space.

    EBF

    The EBF or Emergency Buffer Fund is a cushion of cash or a reserve fund that protects us, quite literally, from the “slings and arrows of outrageous fortune”, as the unparallelled William Shakespeare wrote in Hamlet Act 3, Scene 1.

    Emergencies arise; that’s life.

    Intriguingly, having a fat EBF — comprising pure cash of our own, not borrowings — not only helps us deal with real life emergencies but also calms our nerves when investment markets, especially tumultuous equity ones, nosedive at the most inopportune times.

    Our personal EBFs should cover between three and 12 months’ normal monthly expenses, depending upon our circumstances. I recommend holding EBF cash in bank accounts and pure money market funds.

    As this GVC or Great Virus Crisis gathered momentum in Malaysia (and, of course, globally) from mid-March this year, the individuals and businesses that survived the best — economically speaking — were those with obesely-funded EBFs. For them, this crisis was a mere inconvenience.

    But those without fully-funded EBFs experienced this economic implosion as a crushing calamity.

    ENTROPY

    There is a thermodynamic quality of physical systems, which arises because energy always spreads or thins out as we move from the past to the future.

    It is called entropy and is a physical system’s inherent tendency to move from order to chaos or from high energy density (at the Big Bang) to the projected HDU (Heat Death of the Universe) at the so-called end of time.

    On the much smaller time scale of our wisp-like lives — spanning, give or take, a brief century — if we wish to grow fitter, wiser or wealthier, we need to cause localised entropic reversal by proactively choosing to eat better and exercise harder, study more intensely and ruminate more deeply, or save sacrificially and invest intelligently.

    The benefits which accrue from financial planning are enormous. But they will never happen by accident. We can wander into debt. We can’t wander out of it.

    Doing so requires a solid plan, discipline, patience and persistence.

    In every area of life, valuable hard-won victories arise not by going along effortlessly with the flow but by swimming against the current to raise our levels of orderliness.

    In doing so, we battle and successfully defeat life’s entropic tendencies to plunge us into chaos.

    Great ways to reverse our financial entropy is to commit to the financial planning process; invest widely using several asset classes, including well-chosen equities; and building up EBFs for our lives, our families and, possibly, our businesses.

  • Affin Bank unveils dual credit card for millennials

    Affin Bank Bhd has unveiled “Affin Duo”, a dual credit card product for millennials in today’s digital age.

    Customised for millennials earning a minimum salary of RM2,000 per month, the new card offers customers three per cent cash back on digital transactions and three times Affin Rewards Points for everyday spending.

    “The Affin Duo dual credit card product consists of the AffinBank Visa Cash Back credit card and AffinBank Mastercard Rewards credit card which would be issued jointly.

    “Customers can benefit from the cash back privilege for digital transactions such as payment for online purchases, reload of e-wallets and auto billing payment such as Insurance premium, utility bills or digital subscriptions such as Netflix by using the Affin Duo Visa Cash Back credit card,” Affin Bank president and chief executive officer Wan Razly Abdullah Wan Ali said at the launch today.

    Wan Razly said the timing of introducing the card was on-point with the new norm of increased spending in today’s digital age to meet greater demands of consumers for convenience and flexibilities.

    Visa country manager Ng Kong Boon said its data showed that one in eight active Visa cardholders in Malaysia who did not use e-commerce last year made their first purchase online this year.

    “Furthermore, our e-commerce transaction and spend growth by Visa cardholders in Malaysia has been steadily increasing year-on-year.

    “This trend shows that Malaysian consumers are starting to shift to e-commerce channels to make purchases for their items and this digital adoption curve has further accelerated due to the pandemic.

    In-line with the launch, card members can participate in an “Apply and Win” campaign from August 28 2020 to February 28 2021 and stand a chance to win one grand prize of exclusive Proton by making a minimum retail spend of RM100 within 45 days from card approval date.

  • 央行:还有弹药 英国或实施负利率

    英国央行行长安德鲁贝利表示,英国央行还有很多弹药,包括必要时可实施的负利率。

    他在周五的美联储杰克逊霍尔年度政策研讨会上说,在2019冠状病毒病疫情爆发之前,英国央行对剩余货币政策空间的使用可能过于谨慎。

    这是贝利3月上任以来最大一次国际演讲。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上宣布美国货币政策的新策略,将允许通货膨胀和就业率达到更高水平,这一转变可能预示未来几年利率将保持在较低水平。

    复苏期用激进手段

    英国央行一直在积极地评估将利率降到零以下的可能性。

    在本月初的评论中,贝利提出了在疫情结束后实施负利率的可能性,认为相比现在的经济下滑期,在疫情结束后的复苏时期实施激进货币政策可能更为有效。

    贝利周五表示:“有时候我们需要变得更大,更快。”

  • Australians with bank stocks may need to rethink their finances

    Australians have more money invested in bank stocks than any other stocks, either directly or indirectly, but leading bank analysts suggest a rethink on whether that is the best place to have your money parked.

    Jefferies’ Brian Johnson likens the Australian economy, and by proxy the banks, to Corbet’s Couloir — one of the most dangerous ski runs in North America.

    It’s a double black diamond, which means one who dares enter will be exposed to “uncontrollable falls along a steep, continuous pitch, route complexity, and high-consequence terrain”.

    With such tricky path ahead, does the average skier want to hold bank stocks through that?

    Mr Johnson says Australia has avoided going off the so-called economic cliff in September, but believes it is still on a dangerous slope — and so are the banks.

    “If you believe there is a V-shaped economic recovery, I think you’re being incredibly optimistic and you’d probably be buying all the banks,” he told The Business.

    “If you believe there is an 18-month U recovery, which is my scenario, then you wouldn’t be buying but if you were, it would probably be NAB.

    “If you think there is an L-shape recession risk, and that seems to be the growing risk by the day, without more government stimulus, you would not be buying Australian banks stocks yet.”

    Bank stocks have rallied off the lows plumbed in March, but not as much as the rest of the market.

    The share price for NAB, ANZ and Westpac are all still around 40 per cent below the peaks hit in February this year.

    Commonwealth Bank has clawed back more ground and is down around 20 per cent.

    The worst is yet to come

    But this, Mr Johnson says, doesn’t mean it’s time to rush in.

    He is worried the worst for the banks is yet to come, starting from October with the withdrawal of billions of dollars of government stimulus.

    The reduction of the JobKeeper payment from the beginning of October will mean the amount of cash the Federal Government is pumping into households and businesses will go from $14 billion a month to just under $3 billion.

    That coincides with the winding back of loan repayment moratoriums, rent and eviction moratoriums and an expected increase in unemployment until at least Christmas.

    “You wouldn’t call it a fiscal cliff anymore but it certainly looks to be a very challenging environment, so we won’t know how bad things are until sometime after September,” Mr Johnson told the program.

    So if that’s the outlook — what will happen to bank stocks?

    “As long as you have got earnings expectations declining, the risk of no dividend, all of these economic risks, it wouldn’t surprise me if you saw them track back down to the lows that they were [in March].”

    Mr Johnson says the recent earnings reports from the banks show they are challenged on nearly all fronts.

    “Credit growth is slow and it is not that that the banks don’t want to lend, it’s borrowers not wanting to borrow,” he said.

    “Net interest margins are falling because of very strong levels of competition on interest rates. Customers moving from credit cards to debit means fees fall.

    “The one bright spot is that revenues from share trading were well up, but you would think that is a very short-term effect.”

  • 允许通胀小幅高于2% 美低利率或持续数年

    美联储主席鲍威尔宣布了制定美国货币政策的新策略,将允许通胀和就业在一段时间内上行,这一转变可能会导致利率在未来几年保持在低位。

    经过一年多的评估,鲍威尔周四表示,美联储将力求使通货膨胀率在较长一段时间内保持在平均2%的水平,这意味着在通胀率一段时期低迷后,美联储将允许通胀率超调。

    此外,美联储还调整对就业最大化问题的看法,以推动劳动力市场实现更广泛增长。

    鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年度央行政策研讨会上,发表线上讲话称,新策略旨在应对多年来过低的通货膨胀率。

    它赋予了美联储更大灵活性,相比过去,美联储将可以容忍更加强劲的就业市场及更高的通胀膨胀率。

    虽然美联储没有给失业率定一个确定的水平或针对某些特定族群,但新策略或有助于应对经济中其他疲软领域。

    “实现就业最大化是一个广泛的、包容性的目标,”鲍威尔表示。

    “这一变化反映出我们对强劲劳动力市场所带来好处的肯定,特别是对于中低收入社群的许多人。”

  • 蚂蚁集团收益从结算转向金融商品

    蚂蚁集团收益从结算转向金融商品

    阿里巴巴集团旗下的金融企业蚂蚁集团已向香港和上海的两家交易所申请股票上市。招股说明书显示,融资和金融商品的销售收益增长超过“支付宝”等结算相关业务,此前并未公诸于世的盈利结构的一部分浮出水面。蚂蚁集团这一以“平台提供商”的地位为基础、充分利用人工智能(AI)的金融服务,有可能对现有大型金融企业构成威胁。

     

     

    在阿里巴巴的电商网站“天猫(TMALL)”上销售汽车用品的齐恒星最近从蚂蚁集团的旗下银行贷款200万元。资金将用于弥补因新冠疫情而暂时下滑的营业收入,同时为备战11月到来的最大商战“双十一”,将增加采购。

     

    每天的利息为贷款额的0.04%。按年计算接近15%,但可以随时偿还,越是提前偿还,利息负担越能减轻。齐恒星表示像我这样的小业主很难获得银行贷款。

     

     

    蚂蚁集团2020年1~6月的净利润按日元计算超过3000亿日元。虽然存在新冠疫情带来的坏帐准备金增加这一因素,但仍大幅超过日本三大银行集团的2020财年(截至2021年3月)预期(3200亿~5500亿日元)。信贷余额为2.1万亿元,规模为日本最大的三菱UFJ银行的3分之1,更达到日本最大地方银行横滨银行的3倍。虽然上市条件仍未敲定,但有观点认为总市值将达到2000亿美元,轻松超过目前的日本三大银行集团的合计。

     

    “支付宝”本是蚂蚁集团的代名词,但观察招股说明书,该公司通过面向小微企业和个人的融资来盈利的情况浮出水面。

     

    蚂蚁集团2020年1~6月的部门财报显示,以手机结算为中心的业务的营业收入为260亿元,而由“融资、投资商品等”构成的部门比上年同期增长6成,达到459亿元。两个部门的营业收入在2019财年首次逆转。

    给融资带来强大竞争力的是AI。蚂蚁集团将融资手续称为“310”模式。其含义是用户填写必要项目所需的时间为3分钟,贷款评估由AI在1秒内完成,所需人手为零。

     

    AI通过分析用户的支付记录和企业的资金用途等,计算信贷额度和利率。在河北省柳林村经营羊毛加工厂的李本来每年夏天要贷款约50万元,用于从内蒙古自治区等采购,在拿到加工费的秋季偿还。似乎还会分析这种资金的回收周期。

     

     

    贷款评估的准确性体现在逾期率之低上。从2019年底面向小微企业的贷款的逾期率来看,“30天以上”为2.03%,“90天以上”也仅为1.57%。旗下银行的不良贷款比率为1.3%,低于接近2%的中国商业银行的平均水平。

     

    蚂蚁集团通过支付宝的余额自动回收资金,有时还会冻结支付宝的交易本身。在中国,如果无法使用已成为生活基础设施的支付宝,从那一天起,生活将变得困难。呈现出充分利用作为以支付宝拥有10亿用户的“平台提供商”的优势这一局面。不仅是融资,投资商品和保险等的交叉销售(Cross-sell)也在成为新的盈利来源。

     

    为了死守成为优势源泉的平台提供商的地位,蚂蚁集团似乎不惜付出一切牺牲。支付宝的加盟店手续费率最高为结算额的0.6%。虽然无法单纯比较,但大幅低于据称达到2~3%左右的日本的手机结算等。对于手机结算的收益增长放缓已做好准确。

     

    在手机结算的份额上,腾讯控股约占4成,与支付宝(逾5成)成为2强。但是,蚂蚁集团的优势是在手机结算的基础上增加各种金融服务,进而通过AI追求效率这一点。

     

    2019年收购英国结算服务万里汇(WorldFirst)等,蚂蚁集团还对海外并购(M&A)持积极态度。由于中美贸易摩擦,蚂蚁集团或对收购美国企业敬而远之,但充分利用通过上市筹集的资金,探索在海外扩大业务的可能性很高。蚂蚁集团在中国以外的地区也成为现有金融机构的强有力竞争对手的日子或许已不遥远。