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Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives
麦肯锡全球银行业年度回顾2022年
我们的全球银行业年度回顾每年更新一次，提供我们对全球银行业的最佳研究和见解。
McKinsey’s Global Banking Annual Review
December 1, 2022 | Report
Updated annually, our Global Banking Annual Review offers the best of our research and insights into the global banking industry. Explore the findings from our most recent report and scroll for past years’ reports.
Global Banking Annual Review 2022: Banking on a sustainable path
Banks will need to become more resilient and reinvent their business models to ride out the current volatile period and achieve long-term growth and profitability.
First the pandemic, and now inflation, war, rising interest rates, supply chain disruption, and more: for banks globally, the combination of macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical disruption in 2022 overturned many assumptions and ended more than a decade of relative stability. One thing didn’t change, however: valuations. Banks overall continue to trade at a steep discount to other sectors, a reflection of the fact—confirmed once again in 2022—that more than half of the world’s banks earn less than their cost of equity.
In this year’s Global Banking Annual Review, we take a closer look at the roller-coaster ride banks have been on over the past months, the growing divergence between banks with different profiles in different countries, and the factors that make the best performers stand out.
At a time of growing corporate and government commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, we also shine a spotlight on sustainable finance, a much-discussed theme in banking. Despite lingering skepticism and concerns about greenwashing, we find strong evidence suggesting that climate-related financing is entering a “next era,” as the initial surge of funding for renewable energies gives way to a deeper engagement with banking clients across all sectors.
For banks, 2022 has been a tumultuous year of shocks and growing uncertainty
Banks rebounded from the pandemic with strong revenue growth, but the context has changed dramatically. Now a series of interrelated shocks—some geopolitical and others lingering economic and social effects of the pandemic—are exacerbating fragilities.
Bank profitability reached a 14-year high in 2022, with expected return on equity between 11.5 and 12.5 percent (Exhibit 1). Revenue globally grew by $345 billion. This growth was propelled by a sharp increase in net margins, as interest rates rose after languishing for years on their cyclical floors. For now, the banking system globally is sitting comfortably on Tier 1 capital ratios between 14 and 15 percent—the highest ever.
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